By Price Headley and Moby Waller
It’s time for our annual Kentucky Derby selections and commentary. First, we’ll start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. Our analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race. The weather in Louisville is expected to be warm and sunny.
| Derby Winner | BRIS Speed Rating | Last race (No. of weeks before Derby) |
|---|---|---|
| American Pharoah | 102, 99 | Arkansas Derby (4 weeks) |
| California Chrome | 106, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks) |
| Orb | 97, 102 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| I’Ll Have Another | 95, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| Animal Kingdom | 100, 89 | Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly) |
| Super Saver | 92, 94 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| Mine That Bird | 96, 98 | Sunland Derby (5 weeks) |
| Big Brown | 106, 104 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| Street Sense | 98, 101 | Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly) |
| Barbaro | 104, 104, 97, 97 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| Giacomo | 100, 96, 98, 96 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| Smarty Jones | 105, 109, 101, 103 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| Funny Cide | 111, 103, 97 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| War Emblem | 109, 105, 88, 94 | Illinois Derby (4 weeks) |
| Monarchos | 108, 108, 106, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| Fusaichi Pegasus | 110, 103, 100, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| Charismatic | 104, 94, 94, 94 | Lexington (2 weeks) |
| Real Quiet | 107, 103, 73 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| Silver Charm | 102, 98, 105 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| Grindstone | 101, 102, 93 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| Thunder Gulch | 98, 103, 106 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| Go For Gin | 104, 105, 99, 100 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| Sea Hero | 96, 85, 77 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| Lil E. Tee | 102, 96, 107, 100 | Arkansas Derby (2 weeks) |
| Strike The Gold | 109, 100, 99, 87 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| Unbridled | 108, 101, 104, 98 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
Last year, I was high on Dortmund, which ran third behind eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh. I did have the top-three finishers within my five favorite horses, but only managed to hit with an exacta, picking the top-two finishers to salvage the day. This year looks more wide open to me, and I prefer to include a couple of sleepers that show good speed numbers with much more attractive odds. Remember the Kentucky Derby is the biggest field of any race in the United States all year, so in addition to talent, racing luck is needed. That’s why I like to find value in the 8-1 to 20-1 range typically for the greatest two minutes in sports.
My favorite in this year’s race is Exaggerator (Post Position 11, 8-1 odds). Fresh off winning the Santa Anita Derby, he shows the consistency I look for to “key” a horse not only as a winning bet but also in my exotic bets. Four straight speed ratings above 100 can’t be matched here. I am concerned that he could be nipped at the wire by a late-charging horse, as the Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. Typically, this doesn’t show up on paper yet for these colts, as they’ve only gone 1-1/8 miles or less, and the Derby is 1-1/4 miles. That last 1/8 of a mile – also known as a furlong in the racing business – is what separates the champions from the also-rans. We should have a beautiful sunny day with no rain at Churchill Downs for this year’s Derby as well.
With those thoughts in mind, here are my top challengers to get in the picture at the finish line:
Lani (PP 8, 30-1): The horse from the farthest distance away looked impressive winning the UAE Derby and appears to be overly discounted after the long trip to Louisville. While a win is a stretch, at these odds I have to take a shot.
Suddenbreakingnews (PP 2, 20-1): This horse is closing well after a fast-charging second place in the Arkansas Derby, and I expect him to be charging late.
Nyquist (PP 13, 3-1): The Derby favorite must be included in exotic bets. I have a hunch he finishes third.
Also include Brody’s Cause (PP 19), Danzing Candy (PP 20) and Mohaymen (PP 14) in exotic bets.
So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:
$10 Win on 2 and 8
$5 Exacta box 2, 11
$5 Exacta box 8, 11
$1 Exacta 11 with ALL
$1 Trifecta box 2, 8, 11, 13
$1 Trifecta 11 with 2, 8, 14, 19, 20 with 13
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