NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
2024 NFL Picks: 89-82-7 (-$2,545)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 11 Analysis: The good news is that we had a monster week. The bad news is that we lost our November NFL Pick of the Month. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Browns, 8 units (loss): This looked like another instance of horrible luck with Dustin Hopkins missing three field goals, including two chip shots. The Browns still tied the game at 14 in the fourth quarter, but then showed a complete unwillingness to tackle Taysom Hill.

Rams, 5 units (win): The Rams were comfortably ahead for most of the game, but the Patriots gave us a bit of a scare at the end.

Steelers, 3 units (win): Yet another Steelers win over the Ravens.

Lions, 4 units (win): I can’t believe I only bet four units on this game. This should have been my November NFL Pick of the Month. But as a wise man once said, hindsight is 50/50.

Vikings, 3 units (win): It’s nice to see that we were right about the Vikings in Week 10, but suffered some bad luck. Hopefully this all turns around.

Texans, 5 units (win): Not only did we get this right; we also hit -13.5 +200 and -20.5 +480!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It seems odd to say this because they won, but the Steelers had a disappointing outcome against the Ravens on Sunday. I expected a much better offensive performance from them against an ailing Baltimore defense that can’t cover receivers or tight ends whatsoever, yet Pittsburgh could only kick six field goals in the game.

The Browns are a worse team than the Ravens, obviously, but they present a tougher matchup on this side of the ball. They can get after the quarterback with Myles Garrett and defend outside receivers well with their talented cornerbacks. The Steelers don’t pass protect well, so Russell Wilson may not have enough time to release his patented moon balls.

I wouldn’t expect the Steelers to run very well either. The Browns have been able to restrict running backs very well all year. I’d be worried if the Steelers acquired a fullback tight end to pummel through their defense, but Pittsburgh doesn’t even use Pat Freiermuth effectively.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have been better offensively ever since they’ve gone to Jameis Winston. The results don’t quite show it except for the upset victory over Baltimore, but they’ve been able to move the chains more effectively since Watson’s injury.

Winston has been able to hit some deep throws against Baltimore and New Orleans, but this is a different sort of matchup. Winston saw something similar against the Chargers where he threw three interceptions and easily could have been picked on a couple of other occasions. The Steelers have a great defense and can put lots of pressure on Winston, who may not have his top two left tackles in front of him.

The Steelers won’t exactly have to worry about the run either. Nick Chubb used to be a great running back, but he’s a shell of his former self after the brutal knee injury he suffered last year. Chubb had a great matchup last week, but couldn’t even take advantage of it. The Steelers are much better versus the rush than the Saints are.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

There’s no question that the Steelers are the superior team in this matchup. Pittsburgh has a great edge in this contest with its defense battling Winston. Under normal circumstances, the Steelers would be worth a multi-unit play.

However, these are not normal circumstances. The Steelers are almost certain not to be focused. They’re coming off a huge win against the Ravens, so they’re likely to be deflated. This is also a horrible historical spot for Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 15-30 against the spread as road favorites coming off a win under Tomlin. While he’s a great coach, Tomlin has been an easy fade as a favorite following a victory.

I can’t bring myself to bet the Browns, however. They’re just at such a disadvantage on a short week. I’ll side with them for office pool purposes, and I would bet them if this game were on a Sunday, but I can’t place a wager on them in this situation.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Definite rain and mild-heavy winds are in the forecast, so don’t expect much offense. These conditions benefit the Steelers, so this is another reason to avoid the Browns, despite the great history of fading Mike Tomlin in these situations.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I don’t get Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop. Maybe ‘member berries are involved, but 52.5 is too high considering that he hasn’t topped 52 rushing yards this year. Only two running backs (Tyrone Tracy, Rico Dowdle) have beaten expectations against Pittsburgh’s run defense, so it’s not like Chubb has an easy matchup. Chubb is a shell of his former self right now. The best number is under 52.5 rushing yards +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re throwing in the Chubb rushing yard under with Russell Wilson under 10.5 rushing yards, Darnell Washington over 11.5 receiving yards, and Jaylen Warren over 12.5 receiving yards. Wilson hasn’t rushed for double-digit rushing yards yet this year, so why would he start now? Washington has been targeted more than Pat Freiermuth since Wilson took over at quarterback. And Warren is healthy now. With there being poor weather conditions, Warren could get lots of looks as a receiver out of the backfield. This $25 parlay pays $250 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which comes as no surprise. I’d love the Browns in this spot, but I don’t trust them at all. If you like Cleveland, you can actually get a +4 -111 line at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers will likely be flat off Sunday’s win versus the Ravens.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (253,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Steelers have won 39 of the last 48 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Steelers are 31-16 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 47 instances.

Steelers are 15-30 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Russell Wilson is 26-19 ATS in night games.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Rain, 38 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions did whatever they wanted last week. They scored seven touchdowns on their first seven drives against Jacksonville. No one should have been surprised by this because the Jaguars struggle mightily against running backs and slot receivers, and that’s exactly where the Lions generate most of their production.

The Colts are far better against slot receivers, but can’t stop the run. Breece Hall just had a huge game against them, albeit in a loss, so David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should both perform well. This will obviously make things much easier for Jared Goff, who did well to bounce back from his ugly five-interception performance.

Though Amon-Ra St. Brown won’t have a great matchup, the Lions should still be able to move the ball. Jameson Williams is back, and he’ll be able to take advantage of some bad cornerback play. The Colts are also poor to tight ends, so Sam LaPorta will thrive if he can return to the field.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Unlike the Colts, the Lions stop the run extremely well. This is crucial against the Colts, who want to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor as much as possible.

Taylor won’t be able to get much on the ground, so Anthony Richardson will have to take matters into his own hands, or perhaps legs. Richardson didn’t scramble as much as expected last week, but that could change if Taylor is stymied. The Lions don’t see mobile quarterbacks very often, so that could be an advantage for Richardson.

As for Richardson’s hands, it’s always a mystery as to what we’ll see. Richardson can make some beautiful downfield throws, but he can also be very erratic as well. He was relatively accurate last week, so if that continues, he’ll have success delivering passes to Josh Downs, who has a nice matchup against a Detroit defense that surrenders lots of slot production.

RECAP: I imagine some public bettors may view this as the easiest bet on the board. Everyone just saw the Lions win 52-6. How could they not destroy another AFC South team?

Well, there are a couple of reasons to believe this game will go differently. First, the Colts are much better than the Mac Jones-led Jaguars. They haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points this year. Furthermore, they kept their two battles versus Houston to a combined four points, and we just saw the Lions barely win in Houston.

Second, this is a tough look-ahead spot for the Lions. They have to prepare for a divisional opponent in just four days. It’s just the Bears, but that game is much more meaningful for them than this non-conference clash.

It’s nice that we’re getting a bit of value with the Colts as well. The advance line was -7, but because of 52-6, this line has gone above that key number. My projected lines are Detroit -6 and -3.5 (power rankings and EPA, respectively), so if those are correct, then we were already getting good value with Detroit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam LaPorta practiced fully on Wednesday, so he’s on track to return to action. I thought the Lions might hold him out with another game in four days, but barring a setback, he’ll play.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown last week, and we won with that bet. We’re going back to the well with St. Brown now having scores in eight consecutive games. St. Brown catches more passes against zone defenses, and the Colts are one of the heaviest zone teams in the NFL. The best number is -125 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Something I neglected to mention a couple of days ago was that Alex Anzalone landed on injured reserve. This isn’t enough to bump up my unit count on the Colts, which will remain at two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Colts at +7.5, causing the line to drop to +7. However, you can still get +7.5 -110 at DraftKings. I still like the Colts for two units. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Lions play against the Bears on Thanksgiving in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.

Computer Model: Lions -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Who isn’t going to bet the Lions?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 78% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Lions are 8-11 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -7.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 27-24 ATS through 10 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chiefs +2.5

Vikings -6

Lions -13

Bengals +1.5

The public split their top plays, so not much to say here. The public is now 29-26.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -7.5

49ers +2

Broncos -5

Texans -8

Steelers -3.5

Nothing surprising here except for the 49ers. I guess the public hasn’t given up on them yet.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Something I missed two weeks ago in the Panthers-Giants London game was that D.J. Wonnum returned from injury to play for Carolina for the first time. Wonnum was one of the many crucial injuries the Panthers suffered early in the season. His presence gave the Panthers a quality pass rusher to bolster their league-worst pressure rate. As a result, Carolina held the Giants offense in check and won the game.

The Chiefs have blocking issues on the edge, so Wonnum’s presence will have an impact in this contest. Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing his best, so Carolina’s upgraded pass rush may not give him the reprieve he needs after a tough battle against the Bills.

Mahomes would love to just feed the ball to his running back. The problem is that Isiah Pacheco may not be quite ready to return to action, so we may see one final week of Kareem Hunt in Kansas City’s backfield. Hunt has done well as a fantasy player, but he is not efficient in the slightest, as he leaves far too much meat on the bone whenever he touches the ball.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers may get another impactful player back from injury this week. That would be Adam Thielen, who got hurt back in Week 3. Obviously, Thielen is not the same dynamic receiver he once was, but he’s still a quality possession target for Bryce Young.

Young going up against Kansas City’s defense isn’t ideal, but he’ll at least have one matchup he’ll be able to exploit. Ja’Tavion Sanders figures to have a big game because the Chiefs have been so porous against tight ends. This dates back to Week 1 against Isaiah Likely. Young should have enough time to deliver the ball to his athletic rookie tight end, given that he has quality blocking in front of him to help repel the talented Kansas City pass rushers.

Unfortunately for Young, he won’t be able to rely on Chuba Hubbard, or Johnathan Brooks, for that matter. The Chiefs happen to possess one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so they’ll be able to keep the Carolina backs in check.

RECAP: The Chiefs almost certainly have to bounce back, right? They were undefeated, but lost their first game of the year. I’m sure most people expect them to rebound.

History doesn’t agree, however. Previously unbeaten teams coming off their first loss do not have a great track record in their next game. Dating back to 1989, which is as far back as my database goes, teams in this situation are 32-43 against the spread in Week 7 onward. In other words, teams that started 6-0 or better and then lost their first game cover at a 42.7-percent clip. Having said that, they are 2-0 against the spread as double-digit road favorites, so there’s that.

I hate trends, and I never want to use one to bet a team. I will, however, use them to avoid wagers, so I won’t be backing the Chiefs, especially given that they have a short week coming up with a game on Friday. Besides, the Chiefs almost never cover these high spreads in the regular season.

The problem is that I don’t want to back Carolina either. The Panthers have gotten a bit better from their October swoon, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’d be a bit more appealing if Andy Dalton were playing, but I don’t want to wager any money on Young unless he’s battling another terrible team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Isiah Pacheco had a limited practice on Wednesday. Reports indicate that he has a good chance of playing, but there’s no telling if he’ll be close to 100 percent in his first game back in action.

PLAYER PROPS: The Chiefs allow a ton of production to tight ends. I’d love to bet Ja’Tavion Sanders’ over receiving yards, but I’m not seeing that prop anywhere right now. I’ll come back to this later. Update: I’m betting the over on the Sanders receiving prop. The best number is over 19.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Isiah Pacheco won’t play after all. The Panthers looked a bit more appealing to me until I remembered that they are the Panthers, and that they could easily lose 40-7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s no surprise that the sharps haven’t bet this game. I would still bet the Panthers if I had to pick a side. The best line is +11 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Chiefs could be deflated off their first loss. They also have to play on Friday.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The public is paying this high number.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 81% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 93-25 SU, 63-53 ATS (49-40 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 13-8 ATS after a loss.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-11 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Not quite the response I was expecting! I guess DeeDubb is not a fan of math.

Here’s one where I didn’t need to issue a response:

Thanks, Cassandra! I thought someone named Tywin would be better with their money, though then again, Tywin did go bankrupt at the end.

I was trying to find an actual e-mail I received, but stumbled upon this old one instead. I’m not sure if I posted it last January:

I think it’s funny that this guy berated my humor, but began the e-mail with “HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA.” Clearly, something I said or did was funny.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Sam Darnold did well to bounce back from his horrendous performance against Jacksonville. There’s no reason the Vikings should have nearly lost to the Jaguars after outgaining them 402-143, but they nearly did because Darnold threw three interceptions, including two into the end zone. Many expected the turnovers to continue last week, but Darnold played a clean game.

The Vikings had to attack the Titans through the air because of how strong Tennessee’s ground defense is, so Darnold’s positive performance was crucial. Minnesota will deploy a different method of moving the ball in this game. Chicago is far weaker to the run than the pass, so Aaron Jones will be Minnesota’s primary threat against Chicago.

It’s difficult to imagine the Bears having much success against Jones, so Darnold will be able to capitalize on play-action and short-yardage opportunities. Having easier down-and-distance situations will be vital with Christian Darrisaw out of commission.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Darnold wasn’t the only quarterback in this matchup to rebound from a ghastly performance. Caleb Williams lost to the Patriots because he took nine sacks and threw horribly inaccurate passes. He bounced back against the Packers, nearly leading his team to its first victory over Green Bay since 2018.

While Williams thrived last week, there’s reason to believe that he’ll regress in this matchup. This is the first time he’ll be seeing Brian Flores, which is not a good thing. Flores’ chaotic blitz schemes can confuse veterans, so Williams will be in for a new experience. It should be noted, however, that Williams has handled the blitz well despite being a rookie. He has thrown four touchdowns and only one interception while being blitzed this year, though Flores’ schemes are a different animal.

Williams, unlike Darnold, will have to do most of the work in this game. The Vikings are stellar at stopping the run, so D’Andre Swift won’t find nearly as much running room as he had versus the Packers last week.

RECAP: Williams played much better last week, but he didn’t exactly have the best matchup. Following a hot start, Green Bay’s defense has regressed.

Minnesota’s defense has not. As detailed in the matchup portion, I expect Flores to confuse Williams and force him into some turnovers. Williams can counter with some great scrambles like we saw last week, however, so I don’t think Chicago is hopeless in this matchup.

I’m going to be on the Vikings, but don’t plan on betting them. I don’t see much of an edge with the -3, especially given that the sharps bet Chicago down from +3.5 to +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looked like the sharps were on the Bears when this was bet from +3.5 to +3, but other pro money came in on Minnesota to move the line back up to +3.5. D’Andre Swift missed Wednesday’s practice, but his absence wouldn’t move the needle for me because Roschon Johnson is a capable backup.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bears have surrendered 65 rushing yards or more to an opposing back in their previous four games. I’ll be surprised if Aaron Jones isn’t the fifth. The best number is over 60.5 rushing yards -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Chicago is getting Teven Jenkins back from injury, which is huge against the Vikings. I considered switching my pick to the Bears as long as the line is +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is my least-favorite game of the week from a betting perspective. The sharps have been on both sides, betting the Vikings at -3 and the Bears at +3.5. The best line is Minnesota -3 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 56% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Vikings won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Bears are 19-13 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys just lost 34-10 to Houston, but they’re very lucky that game was that close. Dallas scored on a fluky touchdown when KaVonte Turpin ran into the end zone after Jeff Okudah fell down. Cooper Rush then had multiple interceptions that were dropped. The Cowboys easily could have lost 48-6.

Adding injury to insult, Dallas lost three offensive linemen to injury during the game, including their top blocker, Tyler Smith. If the Cowboys are down Smith and some other offensive linemen, they may score absolutely nothing in this contest, given how much pressure the Redskins can generate.

The Redskins have a great pass defense under Dan Quinn, but they’re far weaker to the run. The Cowboys won’t be able to capitalize on this weakness. First of all, they could be way behind, which could take them out of the run. And second, their ground attack is way too pedestrian to be any sort of threat.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins haven’t been as explosive offensively lately. Perhaps Jayden Daniels’ rib injury is to blame. It could also be that the Redskins have battled three tough defenses in their previous four games, as Chicago, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia can make it difficult for any offense to score. The lone exception in that span was the Giants, and Washington generated 27 points and 358 net yards of offense in that contest.

The Cowboys are on the Giants’ defensive level. They have Micah Parsons, but that’s about it. Their secondary has been ravaged by injury, so Daniels, who has a mini bye week to get healthier, will be able to exploit this weakness with his great deep passes.

The Redskins will have plenty of success running the ball as well. Brian Robinson will also have the luxury of getting healthier during these nine days off, so he’ll be able to pick up where Joe Mixon left off Monday night.

RECAP: I almost wrote up the Redskins -9.5 on Monday, but saw that the vig on FanDuel had moved to -115. This spread was -10 everywhere else, so I thought I’d wait.

I don’t want to wait. I’m going to bet the Redskins now at -10. There’s a very good chance that this line soars once the sportsbooks realize the colossal error they made with this spread. The Cowboys are awful, and their terrible quarterbacks have no chance against a top-10 defense like Washington’s.

I’m locking in Cowboys -10. Most sportsbooks have already gone to -10.5, but you can still get -10 -110 at Caesars and ESPNBet. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We locked this in at -10, and we will be betting alt lines at -13.5, -20.5, and perhaps even -27.5. Tyler Smith and Zack Martin missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Joe Mixon against the Cowboys and won. We’re going to fade Dallas’ poor run defense yet again. The best number is over 70.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

I’m also going to bet Robinson to score a touchdown and two touchdowns. The Cowboys have surrendered 18 rushing touchdowns, and they tend to allow multiple scores in many games. I’m going to wait until the Gronk Spike promo appears on FanDuel on Saturday to bet this.

Update: The best lines for Robinson to score at -145 for an anytime touchdown and +450 for two touchdowns at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Marshon Lattimore for the Redskins, but the Cowboys are in far worse shape. They’re getting DaRon Bland back, but they’ll be without Zack Martin and perhaps Tyler Smith, who barely practiced this week. We’re going to have alt. line bets posted later.

ALT LINE BETS: I’m betting the alt lines on the Redskins at -13.5, -19.5, and -27.5. The best numbers are +120, +250, and +680 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game above -10. We already bet the Redskins at -10, which is nice because this line is -10.5 across the board. The best line is -10.5 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -10.

Computer Model: Redskins -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

There should be more money on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 75% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cowboys have won 12 of the previous 16 meetings.

Redskins are 12-27 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -10.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: If you missed the news, the Giants have benched Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito. This was a great decision if New York’s goal is to tank the rest of the season because there is no metric by which DeVito is better than Jones. We saw plenty of DeVito last year, and among all qualifiers (125 pass attempts or more), he had the fourth-worst EPA among all quarterbacks. The only quarterbacks worse than him were Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Bailey Zappe.

DeVito appears to have a solid matchup in this game based on Tampa Bay’s overall defensive ranking, but that would require him to perform well against Todd Bowles. I’m no fan of Bowles as a head coach, but he’s a defensive mastermind who confuses young quarterbacks. Bowles blitzes at a high clip, which spells trouble for DeVito because he did not handle the blitz well as a rookie.

It would be great for DeVito if he could lean on his rushing attack in his first start, but he won’t be able to do that. The Buccaneers are stellar against the run, so they’ll be able to limit Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jones’ benching isn’t the only offensive change we’ll see in this game. Mike Evans is expected back. He was practicing on Monday, so it would be a surprise if he weren’t active.

Evans’ return is huge for the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield will be thrilled because he won’t have to rely on bum receivers like Rakim Jarrett and Sterling Shepard any longer. Evans provides a great mismatch against a Giants secondary with issues at cornerback.

New York’s worst problems defensively have to do with the running game. The Giants have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Bucky Irving has a great performance.

RECAP: Something I love to do is fade backup quarterbacks against great defenses. They have a low cover rate for obvious reasons. Prior to the lockout when teams had a chance to practice more, these backups would at least stand a chance, but that’s not the case anymore.

Now, the numbers say that the Buccaneers do not have a great defense. In fact, they’re 31st in adjusted EPA. However, there’s a huge disparity between how Bowles handles veteran quarterbacks and inexperienced/bad signal-callers. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), and Spencer Rattler. In those seven games, they’ve allowed an average of 15.6 points, and they’re 5-2 against the spread.

DeVito certainly belongs in that pantheon. I’ve shared the numbers with you. He’s exciting, and he had a cool win on a Monday night versus the Packers, but he doesn’t deserve to be a starter in the NFL. Bowles will eat him alive.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No surprise to see this line jump to -6. Evan Daniel pointed out on our Tuesday show that several Giants players voiced their displeasure with the Daniel Jones benching, so that’s a great sign that we’re on the right side. Mike Evans, by the way, was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Buccaneers. Malik Nabers popped up on the injury report today with a groin issue. If he’s ruled out, this line could move to -6.5 or perhaps even -7. The best line right now is -6 -105 at BetMGM.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers allow lots of yardage to tight ends. Theo Johnson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but was full on Thursday, so I don’t think there’s anything we need to worry about. The best number is over 21.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers could be getting almost everyone back from injury. Mike Evans was limited-full-limited in practice this week. Jamel Dean practiced fully every day. Tristan Wirfs was limited all week. There’s also Zyon McCollum, who was full in practice on Friday after being DNP the other two days. Meanwhile, Malik Nabers told the media that he intends to play, but he won’t be the first player to be overconfident with injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malik Nabers will play, but so will Mike Evans. Tristan Wirfs is out, which is a bummer, but Jamel Dean will be back on the field. I still like the Buccaneers, which we locked in earlier. The sharps bet Tampa below -6. There are some -6.5s out there now, but you can still get -6 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 87% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 139-96 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 15 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

MIAMI OFFENSE: I never want to forget how truly inept Mike McDaniel was without Tua Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins have been much better on this side of the ball ever since their starting quarterback returned to action. Moving the chains against the Raiders was always going to be easy, but Tagovailoa went toe to toe with the Bills two weeks before that.

Tagovailoa would have had such an easy time against the Patriots in the initial matchup between these teams, but New England has gotten better on this side of the ball recently. That stems from a number of injured players returning to action of late. This includes Christian Barmore, who played his first game of the season last week. Barmore didn’t see the usual number of snaps, but he’ll be more active in his second game. This is troubling for the Dolphins, who don’t protect well in the interior.

The Patriots still don’t project all that well against the run, however, so something has to give. The Dolphins haven’t been able to rush the ball all that well this year because of the diminished blocking, but they had some rare success against New England in the first matchup. We’ll see if that continues, given that the Patriots are healthier now than they were in that first meeting.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have also gotten better on this side of the ball since the first matchup between these teams. Of course, that has to do with Drake Maye quarterbacking the team instead of Jacoby Brissett. Maye makes some stupid decisions at times, but he also creates some terrific plays, showcasing his immense upside.

Maye’s ability to scramble will be useful against a Miami defense that has done a better job of pressuring quarterbacks lately. The Dolphins have also improved against the run, so Rhamondre Stevenson won’t have as solid of a performance as he enjoyed in the first meeting.

The Dolphins have some weaknesses on this side of the ball, however. They’re incredibly poor against tight ends, as we saw last week when Brock Bowers had a ridiculous game against them. Hunter Henry should thrive. Miami isn’t great versus outside receivers either, though the Patriots don’t exactly have the personnel to take advantage of that liability.

RECAP: The Patriots were once one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’re still not very good, but they’ve gotten better with Maye replacing Brissett and some players returning from injury. As a result, they’ve done well in some recent games. They beat the Jets and Bears, went to overtime on the road at Tennessee, and kept the Rams game to within six. I think they’re worth a shot at +7 against the Dolphins. I wouldn’t have felt this way back in October, but things have changed.

Besides, the Dolphins are in a poor spot. They’re coming off two consecutive victories, and following this game against an opponent they’ve already beaten, they have to take on the Packers on Thanksgiving night. They know that they have issues beating good teams, and Green Bay is a far superior opponent compared to New England. It would be a bit shocking if the Dolphins were fully focused for the Patriots.

Also, we were getting good line value. The advance spread was -6.5, yet the line went to -7.5. I don’t know what made the line go through the No. 2 key number, but the sharps felt the same way because they bet the Patriots down to +7. It’s still nice to get five-and-a-half of the six key numbers with sharp support by fading a distracted opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Terron Armstead or Kendall Fuller for the Dolphins in Wednesday’s practice. It’s obviously still early, but I’d love to see them both miss this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Hunter Henry has been a beast in most games, and I suspect that will continue this week. The Dolphins have surrendered lots of big games to tight ends, including Davis Allen two weeks ago, so Henry should be able to clear the over. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kendall Fuller is out. Terron Armstead is questionable after being DNP all week. He played under those conditions last week, but Miami may opt to hold him out with another game in four days.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Gonzalez is active, but so is Terron Armstead. The sharps haven’t really weighed in on this game (slight action on New England). The best line is +7.5 -112 at Bookmaker and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

The Dolphins already beat the Patriots, and they have to play against the Packers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 62% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Dolphins are 33-47 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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Schmidty from Philly is one of my oldest friends, so please give him a follow, a thumbs up, and everything else!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Though the Texans won 34-10 against the Cowboys, they didn’t exactly have the best performance. C.J. Stroud missed some throws despite the return of Nico Collins. Stroud began the year on fire, but has cooled off considerably recently. It was speculated that the receiver injuries were to blame, but things didn’t really change in the wake of Collins’ return.

Perhaps Stroud and Collins needed a game to get their chemistry right. It’s possible that they could have a much better output in this game, especially when considering how poor Tennessee’s defense has become against the pass. The Titans began the year with two stellar cornerbacks and a solid linebacker, but Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed have both been out a while, while Ernest Jones was traded. Tennessee had no answer for Sam Darnold last week, so stopping Stroud seems like it’ll be an issue.

Stroud will need to be better in this matchup because while the Titans are poor to the pass, they still stop the run effectively. No team runs at a higher clip on early downs than the Texans, thanks to Bobby Slowik’s predictable play-calling. The Texans will need multiple injuries to Tennessee’s front seven for Mixon to reach his full potential this upcoming week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Poor Will Levis can’t catch a break. He had an impossible matchup against the Chargers two weeks ago that saw him score 10 points until the final minute in garbage time. Last week, he took five sacks and was intercepted once against Minnesota’s blitz-happy defense.

It won’t get any easier for Levis, who has to battle DeMeco Ryans’ top-10 defensive unit. The Texans also blitz at a high clip, which is troubling for Levis because he handles the blitz so poorly. Levis has thrown seven touchdowns and five interceptions when not blitzed this year. When blitzed, he has one touchdown and three picks, and all of his other numbers are considerably worse.

Unlike the past two weeks, however, Levis could lean on his rushing attack. The Chargers and Vikings handle the run well, but the Texans do not. Tony Pollard could break off some long runs, provided that the Titans don’t fall too far behind.

RECAP: We went against Levis last week because of a great schematic matchup against him. Levis is horrendous against the blitz, so he didn’t stand much of a chance against the Vikings, who blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Levis was sacked five times and threw an interception.

This is another tough matchup for Levis. The Texans have a top-10 EPA defense, and they’re also top 10 in blitz rate. We’re going to see more sacks and interceptions from Levis.

I wish we had a better running matchup for the Texans, but I think they’ll be able to win this game rather easily. Levis scored just 16 points at home against Houston last year, so if the result remains the same despite the change in location, all the Texans need is 25 points, which is very feasible for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nine Tennessee players missed Wednesday’s practice, including Calvin Ridley with an illness. If that many players end up being out, I may expand this unit count.

PLAYER PROPS: There aren’t any player props I like in this game, unfortunately. I would like a Will Levis interception, but the best odds available are at -170, which is too expensive.

SATURDAY NOTES: Good news for the Texans: Will Anderson will be back in the lineup. Bad news for the Titans: L’Jarius Sneed is out (placed on IR), while Roger McCreary is questionable after barely practicing all week. Another major injury is to Jack Gibbens, who became Tennessee’s best linebacker in the wake of the Ernest Jones trade. He’s out as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are against us here. They’re on the Titans. The best line is -7.5 -110 at ESPNBet, followed by -7.5 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

TEASER ADDED: I forgot to add a teaser. I’m going with the Texans -2.5 and Chargers +8.5, which I bet on Bookmaker for -120 vig. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -8.

Computer Model: Texans -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Predictable betting action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 75% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Titans have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -9.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.