NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
2024 NFL Picks: 28-31-1 (-$1,390)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s amazing how quickly things have changed for Jayden Daniels. In Tampa to open the season, Daniels was tentative and struggled until garbage time. He improved the following week, albeit against the Giants. Still, he threw far too many checkdowns and would have lost had the Giants’ kicker not suffered an injury on the opening sequence of the game. Just eight days later, Daniels had the best single-game performance of any rookie quarterback ever from an accuracy standpoint. He completed 21-of-23 passes and wasn’t just tossing checkdowns. He torched Cincinnati’s secondary with some long bombs, including 55- and 27-yard touchdowns to Terry McLaurin.

Daniels was battling a defense that ranked 13th in EPA heading into Week 3. He’ll have a much easier matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona has major problems in the secondary and can’t seem to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback unless they’re battling the injury-ravaged Rams. Daniels should have his way with the Cardinals.

What makes Daniels’ performance even more special was that he couldn’t lean on the running game at all. Brian Robinson Jr. was getting nothing on the ground, which should continue to be the case, as Arizona is mediocre when it comes to defending the rush.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: If Daniels weren’t a rookie, making his feat so much more remarkable, we could compare his Monday night performance to that of what we saw from Kyler Murray in Week 2. Murray torched the Rams mercilessly en route to a blowout victory. There’s good reason to believe that we’ll see something similar from Murray this week.

While the Redskins have an explosive offense, their defense is almost just as bad. They get no pressure on the quarterback – even less so than Arizona – while the entire secondary is a complete dumpster fire. They can’t cover anyone, so Marvin Harrison Jr. and the rest of the receivers should have a very easy time getting open.

The Redskins are better against the run, and not just by default. They’re ranked in the middle of the pack, but that may not be good enough to contain James Conner, who has been a big producer dating back to the middle of last season when Murray returned from injury.

RECAP: I’m pissed that the Redskins looked great on Monday night. When I first saw this line on Sunday night, I knew I’d like the Redskins at +5. The Cardinals just aren’t good enough to be favored by this sort of a number over a competent team. Their offense is explosive, but their defense is inept. Washington would project great against it.

Furthermore, the Redskins would have the advantage of Kliff Kingsbury knowing the opposition. Granted, there are some different players, but Kingsbury coached Murray, so he would know his weaknesses better than anyone. Weaknesses other than Call of Duty, mind you.

You can imagine my disappointment when this spread was re-released following the Monday night result. It’s not a huge difference, but the Cardinals are down to -3.5. Furthermore, the Redskins are in an unfavorable position of trying to duplicate their production from Monday night just six days later. Big underdogs coming off upset victories on Monday night tend to struggle the following Sunday.

I’m still going with the Redskins, but this is just a slight lean. Given the new, unfortunate circumstances from Monday night, I can’t envision myself betting on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Cardinals. I get it, but I really don’t want to lay the -3.5, so I’ll stay on Washington.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no injury news of note aside from Trey McBride being ruled out with a concussion. I’m still very torn on this game.

PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Greg Dortch over 3.5 receptions. Trey McBride’s injury is a huge boon to Dortch, who goes up against a miserable slot cornerback this week. Marvin Harrison Jr. also has some sort of quad injury, so Dortch should have a big day. I like his receptions rather than receiving yards because his average depth of target is often so low. The best number is over 3.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still don’t have a good feel for this game. Barring surprising injury, I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s nothing new here for me. The sharps are on the Cardinals, but I don’t like either side. If you want to tail the sharps, the best line is Arizona -3.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Redskins are coming off a big upset victory on Monday night.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 54% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Redskins are 20-33 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Cardinals -5.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy was tagged with back soreness on Monday, which is likely because he, along with Jauan Jennings, carried the rest of the team against the Rams. It wasn’t quite enough, as the Rams were able to engineer a comeback victory to prevail at the very end.

Purdy’s back is the least of the 49ers’ concerns. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were already out, and matters got worse when Trent Williams was knocked out of Sunday’s game. Williams was able to return to action after a brief exit, but it was clear that he wasn’t 100 percent. Perhaps he’ll be at full strength for this matchup, but he could be hindered with an injury. If so, San Francisco’s offense won’t be nearly as effective as it could be.

On the bright side for the 49ers, they may get George Kittle back in the lineup. The Patriots are very weak to the pass, as seen in their previous two performances, so if Purdy, Williams and Kittle are all healthy, San Francisco should have some offensive fireworks in this game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The injuries are beginning to creep into the 49ers defense. Javon Hargrave was lost for the season with torn triceps, which is very unfortunate for the 49ers because they lost Arik Armstead during the offseason. They aren’t very deep at defensive tackle, so they could be susceptible to the run.

Rhamondre Stevenson was phased out of last week’s game because the Patriots were so far behind. That could obviously happen again, but if the Patriots can hang around, Stevenson should be able to have some nice gains, much like Kyren Williams did last week. San Francisco is shockingly 29th against the run.

If the Patriots do fall behind, it’s going to be very difficult for them to sustain any sort of offense. We’ll see a mirror image of last week’s game in which they produced just 130 net yards of offense. Their dreadful offensive line is just too weak to fend off Nick Bosa and the rest of San Francisco’s pass rushers.

RECAP: The Patriots are the worst team in the NFL according to both my NFL Power Rankings and the EPA numbers. Thus, it would take a lot for me to pick them.

“A lot” could refer to the number of injuries the 49ers have. They lost Hargrave in addition to all the offensive players who missed last week’s game, but there’s a chance that one of Kittle or Samuel returns, which would give them more of a chance to play up to their ability and destroy the Patriots. This is what they would do under normal circumstances, given that they’re coming off consecutive losses.

I’m going to pencil in the 49ers for now, but if they have way too many injuries to cover a high spread, I’m going to switch for New England. Stay tuned for updates later in the week, or follow @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Kittle returned to practice, but Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel missed Wednesday’s session. Williams was out with an illness, but I wouldn’t be worried about his status.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have major injury woes. George Kittle will be back for the 49ers, but Trent Williams was DNP on Friday after practicing fully Thursday. He could play, but may not be 100 percent again. Deebo Samuel looks iffy to play as well. Meanwhile, the Patriots lost another offensive lineman, as Michael Jordan will be sidelined. Jonathan Jones is also iffy to play. If we get some crazy one-sided news prior to kickoff, I may place a bet on one of these teams, but it’s impossible to handicap this game at the moment.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The inactives list will be huge. I may bet this game depending on what those look like.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel will both play, which is a bummer because these inactives would have made New England look appealing. As it stands now, I can’t bet on this game. The sharps aren’t doing so either. If you want the 49ers, you can get -10 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

No one wants to bet on New England?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 70% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patriots are 29-16 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Brock Purdy is 20-6 SU, 14-12 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 74 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I don’t need to tell you that the Browns have lots of problems. They just lost to the Giants, for crying out loud. However, there are some serious issues with this team beyond just Deshaun Watson’s ineptitude.

Watson sucks, but he’s not getting any blocking either. He normally has terrific offensive linemen in front of him, but Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin haven’t been healthy all year. That’s not all, as Wyatt Teller got knocked out of last week’s game and will miss some action going forward. This is a horrible situation against the Raiders under normal circumstances.

The circumstances may not be quite normal, however. Both Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins were limited in last week’s practice. They clearly weren’t 100 percent last week, but their health could improve after another week. They’ll be able to generate more pressure on Watson than they did on Andy Dalton because Cleveland’s offensive line is in much worse shape, and we know what will happen with Watson if he’s pressured heavily.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Browns also have problems on this side of the ball. Myles Garrett is the issue, or rather his health. Garrett has a foot injury that will require surgery in the offseason. He’s opting to play through it, which is gutsy. However, it means that Garrett won’t be as effective as usual.

This has to be music to the Raiders’ ears because their offensive line is the weak point of the roster. The Browns couldn’t rattle Daniel Jones last week, so I’m not confident that things will automatically improve against either Gardner Minshew.

Speaking of Minshew, Antonio Pierce suggested that there could be a quarterback swap this week. That would make sense, but Pierce said he’ll be going back to Minshew. Perhaps a quarterback switch will spark the Raiders like it did the Panthers.

RECAP: Both teams suffered embarrassing losses last week. The Raiders’ defeat was more of an emotional letdown, as they upset the Ravens across the country and then had to take on an 0-2 Panthers squad. The Browns, conversely, lost because they suffered so many injuries in the trenches. Several offensive linemen were missing by the end, while Garrett was clearly not 100 percent.

The Raiders’ problems are much more correctable unless the Browns are suddenly healthy again. This does not seem likely, especially given that Garrett has declared that he needs surgery. The Browns will likely be down multiple offensive linemen once again as well. The Raiders have some injury concerns, too, but there’s a much better chance that their defensive linemen can bounce back and be healthy this week.

Despite this, the Raiders are just one-point favorites at home. Given Cleveland’s injuries, and Watson’s incompetence, I like the Raiders to cover this short number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lots of missed practices. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin were out Wednesday, while Maxx Crosby was sidelined as well. I won’t have any interest in betting the Raiders if Crosby misses this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Everyone knows Cleveland’s issues. The Browns are down three offensive linemen for this game with Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin ruled out again. The Raiders would look appealing, except they’ve suffered lots of injuries on their own. Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams are both out. So is right tackle Thayer Munford. This is a huge disappointmen because the Raiders looked very appealing, but I can’t bet them now, even as a home underdog.

PLAYER PROP: I like Brock Bowers to go over receiving yards. Bowers has eclipsed 50 yards in two games, and he’ll have extra targets and snaps this week because both Davante Adams and Michael Mayer are both out. If you’re wondering how the Browns handle tight ends, they surrendered 65 receiving yards to Brenton Strange. The best number is over 49.5 receiving yards -130 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I wish the Raiders were healthier because they looked like a great bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I’m actually going to bet the Raiders. Why? Because there are +3 lines available. You can get +3 -118 at DraftKings. A team like the Browns with an awful quarterback and three injured offensive linemen shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -1.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 51% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-22 ATS as a favorite. ???

Raiders are 19-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005. ???

Opening Line: Browns -1.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Jim Harbaugh is obviously a great coach, but he had his first misstep with the Chargers last week. With Justin Herbert dealing with both a plantar fascia and a high ankle sprain, the wise decision would’ve been to hold him out of the game against the Steelers so he could rest up for a battle against the Chiefs. Instead, Herbert played and aggravated his injury. As a result, the Chargers could lose two games.

This line makes it seem as though Herbert will be sidelined. Taylor Heinicke will likely start, and he’s not the worst option. He’s a gritty quarterback who has won games on bad teams in the past. He also doesn’t face much of a challenge with the Chiefs ranking 21st in defensive EPA. The best thing the Chiefs do on this side of the ball is rush the passer, and Heinicke will be decently protected, assuming Ra’Shawn Slater can play. Joe Alt is out, so Slater’s availability will be huge.

Regardless, Heinicke will lean on J.K. Dobbins. The former Raven has been spectacular this year, leading the NFL in yards per carry after contact heading into Week 3. The Chiefs are weak to the run, so the Chargers should be able to control the clock on the ground.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Despite Patrick Mahomes’ presence under center, the Chiefs haven’t been very great on this side of the ball. They’re 11th in offensive EPA, so this is not the offensive explosion many were anticipating.

The primary issue for the Chiefs is their tackle production. They cannot block on the edge, which is a huge problem for this matchup if Joey Bosa is able to play. Bosa was knocked out of last week’s game, but if he and Khalil Mack can suit up, they can hound Mahomes without blitzing, which is crucial to beating him.

The Chiefs can’t exactly turn to their running game either. Isiah Pacheco is out, and while Carson Steele had some nice runs on Sunday night, he’s not exactly going to threaten the Chargers’ defense, which ranks fourth against the run.

RECAP: This line assumes Herbert will be sidelined. If so, I will be on the Chargers.

I know this doesn’t make much sense, but backup quarterbacks tend to cover against non-elite defenses. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been very good this year, showing poorly versus the Bengals and Falcons. They’re 21st in defensive EPA. Remember, they lost some personnel this offseason, so they’re not as potent on this side of the ball as they were last season.

The Chiefs also don’t tend to win by high margins during the early portion of the season. Recall how they nearly blew a game to the Zach Wilson-led Jets last year. They have bigger fish to fry later in the year, so they’re not going to go all out and beat teams that aren’t on their radar. The Chargers are in the division, but with Herbert sidelined, it’s hard to imagine Kansas City taking them seriously.

Of course, the Chargers have some other injuries as well. Alt and James will be sidelined, for example. If they’re missing many more players, it’ll be difficult to bet them, but as for now, I’m comfortable with a medium-sized wager on the Chargers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Good news/bad news for the Chargers. The good news is that Justin Herbert sounds like he has a chance to play. The bad news is that Joey Bosa, Joe Alt, and Rashawn Slater all missed Wednesday’s practice, while Derwin James’ one-game suspension was upheld.

SATURDAY NOTES: I want no part of the Chargers. Justin Herbert may play, but the Chargers will be without both tackles, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James. In fact, these injuries make me want to switch to the Chiefs.

PLAYER PROP: I like the Xavier Worthy under receiving yards. Worthy hasn’t caught more than two passes in a single game yet, but everyone remembers his two touchdowns from Week 1. Let’s fade the overreaction. The best number is under 37.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TEASER: I’m teasing the Chiefs and Bills. Explanation in the Bills-Ravens capsule.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: What I said about the Raiders applies to the Chargers. The Chargers looked like a great side, but not with all their injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert will play, but the Chargers are down so many players. I’m still leaning toward the Chiefs, while the sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is -7 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Chiefs are coming off a win on national TV and now go against a backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.

Computer Model: Chiefs -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 56% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 20 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 87-24 SU, 61-49 ATS (49-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 ATS in the initial divisional matchup of the year as long as he’s not favored by -7 or more. ???

Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.

Chargers are 21-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Justin Herbert is 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 6+. ???

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens had a simple game plan against the Cowboys. They were going to run the ball with Derrick Henry, and they were going to run the ball Lamar Jackson. That was basically it. Jackson threw just 15 times against Dallas in what was a one-sided affair until fourth-quarter garbage time.

The Ravens will not be able to utilize this strategy Sunday night. While the Cowboys are the worst team in the NFL against the run, the Bills thrive against it. They’re in the top 10 versus the rush despite missing multiple linebackers, so they should be able to handle Derrick Henry. I do worry about Jackson, however.

Jackson will have to throw more in this game. This won’t be great for him because he’s not protected very well. The Ravens, as I’ve stated countless times thus far, lost three offensive linemen this offseason. They haven’t blocked nearly as well, which is troubling for this matchup because the Bills can generate pressure on the quarterback.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I thought the Bills were going to have issues generating consistent offense during the early portion of the season. Yet, they’ve produced 102 points in the past two-and-a-half games despite Josh Allen going through a growing phase with his new receiving corps.

This would have been a great test for Allen in past years because the Ravens used to maintain one of the better defenses in the NFL. That, however, is no longer the case. Baltimore has issues generating pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis, and the team struggles to cover. We saw this when Gardner Minshew torched the Baltimore cornerbacks in a great comeback victory in Week 2.

The Bills don’t have the same level of receiver that the Raiders do – it’s obviously not even close – but Allen’s ability to scramble will give the Ravens issues. Another offseason departure was Patrick Queen, who was also not properly replaced.

RECAP: The Ravens were -1.5 on the advance spread. Following Buffalo’s blowout victory over Jacksonville on Monday night, I was expecting the Bills to be favored.

That, shockingly, has not been the case. In fact, the Ravens are now -2.5! I then thought that the Bills would be getting public money, but that hasn’t been the case either.

I’ve been down on both teams entering the year, so I don’t like either side. I’ve been more bearish on the Ravens because of their offensive line woes, so I will be siding with the Bills, but for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if Baltimore’s offensive line wasn’t bad enough, Tyler Linderbaum popped up on the injury report with a knee. He missed Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyler Linderbaum could miss this game with an injury, but he was upgraded each day in practice, so things are looking good for him. I still have no lean on this game, but I like the Bills in a teaser. I’m going to tease them with the Chiefs.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop from this game is Lamar Jackson over 59.5 rushing yards. We keep pounding this, and it keeps hitting. Jackson tends to run more on national TV, and he has to scramble more often this year anyway because his offensive line is so dreadful. The best number is over 56.5 -120 at BetMGM.

I’m throwing the Jackson over rushing prop into a parlay with the following: Khalil Shakir over receiving yards, Dalton Kincaid over receiving yards, and Justice Hill over receiving yards. Shakir has seen an increased target count every week, and he has caught every target thus far. Kincaid has a great matchup against a Baltimore defense that has been gashed by tight ends the past two weeks. And Hill looks good because the Bills are down two linebackers and have consequently been weak to receiving backs. This $25 parlay pays $200 at BetMGM.

TEASER: I’m teasing the Chiefs and Bills. As a favorite of seven or more, Patrick Mahomes is 47-6 straight up in his career, and I can’t see him losing to a Charger team missing all of its best players. The Bills, meanwhile have lost by nine or more just twice in the Josh Allen era. I’m betting this six-point teaser -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still don’t like either side. The best move is Buffalo on a teaser.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs leg of the teaser hit, so let’s hope the Bills keep this margin within 8.5. I don’t have a lean on either side of the true line, though the sharps have a lean on Baltimore. The best line is +2.5 -102 at FanDuel and DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Tons of public money coming in on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (208,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS as an underdog. ???

Lamar Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1. ???

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Chance of rain, 70 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t understand how Mike McDaniel is a head coach in the NFL. Sure, he wears snazzy outfits, but he doesn’t seem to have a clue. McDaniel needed to attack the Seahawks via the run and utilize his best weapons last week with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Instead, De’Von Achane barely touched the ball – he had six touches by the time Skylar Thompson threw 13 passes – and Tyreek Hill caught one pass by the time Alec Ingold had three receptions. Apparently, McDaniel’s grand plan was to have his terrible quarterback throw to his fullback the entire game. I’m shocked that didn’t work.

McDaniel is clueless and can’t even compare to Matt LaFleur. I bring up LaFleur because he outwitted a Tennessee defense that currently ranks in the top 10 of EPA. I don’t know how LaFleur did it, but he had Malik Willis looking like the second coming of Michael Vick. McDaniel won’t be able to do that with Thompson, or Tim Boyle, or whichever dreck quarterback he decides to start this week.

Whichever quarterback starts for Miami has his work cut out for him. Not only will he be handicapped by McDaniel’s poor coaching; he’ll be confronted with a secondary with two No. 1 cornerbacks and a front seven loaded with talent. The Dolphins have issues with their blocking, especially with Terron Armstead now in concussion protocol, so they won’t be able to keep Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry and company out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of dreck quarterbacks, Will Levis had some horrible moments against the Packers last week. He telegraphed a pick-six and later took a sack on third-and-short because he held on to the ball forever. Levis can make some spectacular throws because of his natural ability, but he has no idea what’s happening around him on the field. I’d say it’s shocking that Brian Callahan hasn’t turned to Mason Rudolph yet, but then again, he’s not nearly the excellent coach Mike Vrabel was. Perhaps firing Vrabel was a mistake.

Levis will have an opportunity to make some more blunders in this game. The Dolphins apply good pressure on the quarterback, and the Titans don’t pass protect all that well. This formula can obviously lead to disaster.

Then again, the Tennessee coaching staff can protect Levis by establishing Tony Pollard. This did not work last week because the Packers rank fifth in ground defense. The Dolphins, conversely, just allowed the talent-less Zach Charbonnet to trample them.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m doing this again, but I’m going to bet heavily on the Titans. I suppose I’m a glutton for punishment, but I truly believe that they are a great side this week. If it weren’t for blocked punts in the first two weeks, we’d be 2-1, +$500ish with them, and we wouldn’t be thinking twice about a huge wager.

I love fading backup quarterbacks against great defenses. Despite what we saw from the Titans last week, they have a top-10 defense according to EPA. I’m going to chalk up last week’s performance to LaFleur simply outscheming the Titans because Tennessee’s defense was excellent the first two weeks, limiting the Bears to no touchdowns and the Jets to 17 offensive points. I don’t think McDaniel will be able to outscheme anything because he is a doofus.

Also, if the Dolphins start Boyle, it’s an automatic fade of the Dolphins. Boyle could be the worst quarterback the NFL has ever seen, and that’s not an exaggeration. I don’t think he’d even be a No. 2 in the CFL. There’s no reason for him to be in the league. We won’t have many more opportunities to bet against him, so this could be a rare chance to earn some free money.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins. He’s an upgrade over what they had in Week 3, but he’s still a backup quarterback going up against a top-10 defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know who’s starting for the Dolphins, but that player probably won’t have Terron Armstead, who has yet to practice. The Titans, meanwhile, could be without Jeffery Simmons on top of Chidobe Awuzie, who just landed on injured reserve. Losing Awuzie sucks, and I wonder if Tennessee would have a top 10-caliber defense without him and Simmons.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Jeffery Simmons is out, which sucks. I’m going to drop the unit count to three because Tennessee doesn’t have an elite defense without him and Chidobe Awuzie.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I truly hate the injuries the Titans have on defense because that destroys my thesis about a backup quarterback battling a top-12 stop unit. Depending on the inactives, I may drop this unit count to two.

PLAYER PROPS AND SAME-GAME PARLAY: Tyreek Hill to score the first touchdown at +850 looks appealing. Hill usually has a much worse number than this, but it’s +850 because of the quarterbacking situation. However, the Titans are down multiple defenders, and Tyler Huntley will be a big upgrade over Skylar Thompson. You can find +850 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I like Will Levis to throw an interception as well. Levis has thrown a pick in four of his five road games. He’s a disaster who will find a way to sabotage our pick. The best number is -132 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to parlay De’Von Achane under 62.5 rushing yards, Tyreek Hill over 50.5 receiving yards, Calvin Ridley over 44.5 receiving yards, and Tyler Huntley over 165.5 passing yards. The Titans are stout against the run, so I don’t expect Achane to get much on the ground. However, given the injuries in Tennessee’s secondary, Huntley should have an easier time throwing the ball. Ridley should also do well, given that Jalen Ramsey is not healthy. This $25 parlay pays $170.52 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Dolphins, which is a bummer. I was worried about Tennessee’s injuries, but the team will only be missing Jeffery Simmons and Chidobe Awuzie. Granted, those are two talented players, but it could have been worse. I was looking for a viable +3 line, and there’s one available at DraftKings for -118 vig. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Looks like sharp money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 55% (188,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Dolphins are 32-45 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 86 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Detroit, home of my childhood hero, Eminem, even though Mother won’t allow me to dye my hair like him, but maybe she will now that Joe Burrow has the same hairdo! Tonight, the Detroit Tigers take on the Baltimore Colts. Guys, we got a lot of feedback from people saying that I should defy Mother and dye my hair like Eminem and Joe Cool Burrow, but it would be very dangerous to defy Mother! I’m only 73 years old, so she still gives me an allowance so I can buy Eagles bobbleheads, and without my allowance, I won’t be able to buy any! How could I be so foolish to defy Mother!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Rosa. I don’t think it are a very good idea to deep fry your mother. Now if you talking about mother-and-law, then that a different storytime because mother-and-law very mean to Emmitt. She criticism me for everything, and she even say that Barry- uhh- Barry- Barry Johnson a much better running back than your truthly, which is blastomy even though we in the state of Detroit where Sanders Johnson play football for a long time, like a couple of year.

Reilly: Emmitt, the name you’re looking for is Barry Simpson. Trust me, I’m a football expert, if you couldn’t tell by all the Eagles bobbleheads I have. But I wish I could have a mother-and-law one day because that would mean that I got to marry a beautiful woman who will cook macaroni and cheese for me and take over my chores so I don’t have to do them for Mother anymore. But Mother says this is a pipe dream because I’m a beautiful flower who hasn’t blossomed yet.

Tollefson: Reilly, you sad excuse for a man, what if I told you that I could sell you one of the women I’ve enslaved so she can cook macaroni and cheese and take over your chores for you? Trust me, I only have the best female slaves because the ones who are bad at cooking macaroni and cheese get buried in the woods. I can sell you one for, well, how much do you have?

Reilly: Tolly, buying female slaves is wrong! Mother says I’m not ready to talk to girls unless it’s in the professional environment, so I will not take part in this. Maybe I’ll buy some when my flower has blossomed, but I can’t do that yet. But let’s move on, shall we? Let’s go down to Charissa Thompson, who is set to interview another foreign leader.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Speaking of human trafficking, I’m hearing that Jared Goff and David Montgomery have been selling Haitian slaves who only eat cats to southern landowners. My reporting is always correct, so you can believe me. I’m joined here by another foreign leader this week because they are arguing on their country’s behalf to host an NFL game after Roger Goodell said he wants to double the number of international games. My guest tonight is Justin Trudeau, or at least I thought it was. I think this is either Martin Luther King Jr. or Denzel Washington. Thank you for joining me, but where did Justin Trudeau go?

Justin Trudeau: Hi, my name is Justin Trudeau, and I am wearing my early Halloween costume. I put black paint on my face to show that I care about people of color so much. If anyone says anything bad about people of color, I will lock them away in the gulag because I am a benevolent leader.

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening to anything you were saying because I’m such a great interviewer that I don’t need to listen. So, what’s your selling point on bringing the NFL to Canada? You said something about gulags?

Justin Trudeau: That’s right, but before I move further, please let me announce that my pronouns are he/him. Our gulags are special because they are effectively hotels, but we make sure people can never leave them, and the only thing they are served for dinner are moldy Kit-Kats. It’s quite nice. Once we brainwash people into conforming to our beliefs, they will tow the line. This complete compliance with the government is what you get with games in Canada, and it’s wonderful.

Reilly: President Trudeau, I have to take umbrage with something you said. You said that people eat Kit-Kats for dinner, but Mother won’t let me have Kit-Kats because it makes me too hyper, and then I can’t take a nap or go to sleep at night. President Camel Toe Harris, can you promise to go to war with Canada if they don’t stop serving Kit-Kats?

Kamala Harris: Canada is a country in North America. It exists next to another country. And we like to call that country the United States of America. When I was raised in a middle class family, my father said that Canada is to the north of the United States. And north means up. If you look up, you’ll see Canada, probably in the clouds, HAHAHAHAHA. Clouds are things in the sky that are white, but sometimes gray. And if they’re gray, that’s where the rain comes from. It comes from the clouds that are gray and not white.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, once again, my political opponent has no idea what she’s talking about because she’s a total fraud and a total disgrace, and she would be a horrible president, probably the worst president we’ve ever had in this country, and no one will have seen anything like it, frankly, and Kamala is not just a bad presidential candidate, but she knows nothing about clouds, unlike Trump who knows everything there is about clouds, I know all about the clouds, I saw a cloud that looked like a giraffe yesterday, it was a great cloud, one of the best clouds anyone has ever seen, and the immigrants who are here illegally from Sudan are eating the clouds, they’re eating all the clouds, no one has ever seen anything like it, frankly, and it’s all because Kamala let in all the illegals, and now they’re eating all your clouds, and they’ll keep eating your clouds if she’s elected.

Wolfley: DONALD, THE SUDANESE IMMIGRANTS AREN’T THE ONLY ONES EATING THE CLOUDS. MY FOURTH COUSIN, A 56K MODEM WITH COOKIES FOR EYES AND POPCORN FOR A NOSE EATS CLOUDS WITH A SIDE OF BACON EVERY MORNING.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Will you guys stop talking about clouds? It’s so embarrassing! We have greater things to worry about like Kit-Kats. New Daddy, can you force our next president to make it so Kit-Kats have less sugar, so Mother says it’s OK to have for a snack?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, sure I’ll get right on that.

Reilly: Wow, thanks, New Daddy! You’re the best!

Jay Cutler: Wait, what was I supposed to do again? I already forgot because I don’t care.

Reilly: New Daddy, no, you’re supposed to de-sugarize Kit-Kats for me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about chocolate candy, Kevin. You began with Kit-Kats, Kevin. A good place to start, Kevin. Speaking of good, Kevin, how about Mr. Goodbar, Kevin? We can talk about a classic, so why not Hershey’s, Kevin? What about Milky Way, Kevin? Or, you can talk about Crunch, Kevin. Let’s segue to Dove chocolate, Kevin. Then, there’s Snickers, Kevin. Not going anywhere for a while, Kevin? That’s because you’re slow and no one likes you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I MAY STILL BE IN HOME SCHOOL AT 73 YEARS OLD, BUT PEOPLE LIKE ME, LIKE MOTHER AND NEW DADDY, SO YOU’RE A HUGE LIAR, AND I WILL FIND A WAY TO DESTROY YOUR SOUL! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Seattle has thrown all over the Lions in their previous couple of matchups, as these teams have engaged in exciting shootouts. This is not a surprise, based on the personnel the Lions have on the defensive side of the ball. While Detroit has been stout versus the run recently, it has struggled to cover in the secondary.

This is obviously worrying for Monday night. There should be no difference in the output the Seahawks will enjoy with their aerial assault. D.K. Metcalf has torched his previous two opponents, so he’ll have a similar performance in this game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba should also thrive.

The one caveat here is the status of Seattle’s offensive line. The Seahawks are down their two right tackles, so the Lions might be able to place some pressure on Geno Smith, who has been responsible for some questionable decision-making at times this year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions are terrific against the run and woeful against the pass, the Seahawks are the complete opposite. They have talented cornerbacks and can clamp down on passing attacks rather easily. Stopping the run is a different story.

The Seahawks were so woeful against the run in Week 2 that they had to go to overtime to beat the Patriots as a result of Rhamondre Stevenson compiling tons of rushing yardage. I thought Mike McDaniel would deploy De’Von Achane last week to capitalize on this liability, but he gave Achane just six touches by the time Skylar Thompson threw 13 times. Obviously, McDaniel is in over his head as an NFL head coach, but Dan Campbell is not. He’ll make sure the Lions are running the ball against this soft ground defense. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will thrive as a result.

It’ll be difficult for Jared Goff to throw into the Seahawks secondary, though he’ll have favorable down-and-distance situation as a result of Montgomery and Gibbs gobbling up yardage on the ground. It helps that Goff has plenty of weapons at his disposal, though Sam LaPorta is dealing with an injury at the moment.

RECAP: I don’t think we’ve seen the Lions at full effort this year. Perhaps they’ve transitioned to a Kansas City level where they’re not going to try very hard during the regular season because they know they have bigger fish to fry in the playoffs.

With that in mind, it’s difficult to trust them to win by margin if they’re not battling an opponent who has their attention. It’s an interesting debate as to whether Seattle fits that criteria. On one hand, the Seahawks are 3-0, and they beat Detroit last year. On the other hand, Seattle is not a team that made the playoffs last year, so it’s not like the Lions are battling the 49ers, or anything.

I also don’t know how to evaluate the Seahawks. They’re undefeated, but they’ve battled Bo Nix in his first start, the horrible Patriots, and the dynamic duo of SKylar Thompson and Tim Boyle. They could be a good team, but I just don’t know if that’s the case.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy made a compelling argument for the Lions on our YouTube NFL Picks show. I’m going to switch to the Lions.

SATURDAY NOTES: Frank Ragnow has been ruled out, but the Lions should still have top-tier blocking without him. Two offensive line injuries would make me think otherwise, but Detroit can manage with only one starter sidelined.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m considering a bet on the Lions, but we’ll see what the inactives list looks like.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: It looks like the sharps bet the Lions at -3.5. I may place a unit on Detroit.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorte player prop from this game is Kenneth Walker under 52.5 rushing yards. Detroit’s excellent run defense allows nothing, and Walker may not get a full workload in his first game back from injury. The best number is under 52.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m putting the Walker rushing prop into a parlay with David Montgomery anytime touchdown, Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 49.5 receiving yards. The Seahawks are weak to the run, while Detroit can’t stop slot receivers. This $25 parlay pays $175 on BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are backing the Lions so much so that they’ve moved the line from -3.5 to -4.5 over the past 24 hours. You can still find -4 -110 at BetMGM and Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 56% (273,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions by 4.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.