NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2023 – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 18 Analysis: A solid week overall except for one pick. Our Pick of the Month with the Bears over the Packers failed. Anyway, I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Falcons, 3 units (loss): Obviously, the wrong side, but what the hell happened here? The Falcons were up 7-0 and 14-7, and they were tied at halftime.

Panthers, 4 units (loss): Now, this is right side, wrong result. The Panthers averaged more yards per play and had two touchdowns wiped off the board by a fumble into the end zone and a stupid illegal formation penalty that had nothing to do with the result.

Cowboys, 4 units (win): When I heard people say that the Redskins were the right side because the Cowboys struggle on the road, I should have increased my unit count.

Giants, 3 units (win): The Eagles are who we thought they were.

Bears, 8 units (loss): I guess I shouldn’t have dismissed Green Bay’s offensive coordinator having Justin Fields’ number. This was a disappointing result.

Bills, 3 units (win): Things looked dicey for a while, but the Bills ended up coming through in the fourth quarter.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Joe Flacco has been incredible for the Browns. He torched the Texans several weeks ago, with Amari Cooper looking like he was going to break the single-game receiving yards record at one point in the third quarter.

This won’t be as easy of a matchup for Flacco, which may sound strange because these teams played just three weeks ago. However, the Texans were missing a couple of key defensive starters in that game. Will Anderson and Blake Cashman, the team’s top defensive lineman and linebacker, respectively, were both sidelined. A couple of other defenders – Maliek Collins, Denzel Perryman – were playing hurt. There’s no doubt that with everyone now healthier, the Texans will be able to generate a better defensive performance.

However, that still doesn’t solve the issue the Texans have on the back end. Their secondary has been torched all year. Gardner Minshew couldn’t take full advantage of this mismatch last week, but Flacco, Cooper and David Njoku have all played on a high level together. While they won’t post insane stats like they did in Week 16, they’ll be able to score a considerable number of points.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Besides Anderson and Cashman, there was another prominent Texan who missed the prior matchup. That was C.J. Stroud, who was unavailable due to a concussion. Case Keenum started instead and floundered.

The Texans didn’t stand a chance with Keenum going up against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Stroud at least gives the Texans a good chance to win. However, he still has an incredibly difficult matchup. The Browns produce a ton of pressure on the quarterback, so Stroud will have to release the ball quickly. He also doesn’t have much to work with at receiver if Noah Brown is sidelined again. Nico Collins has been great, but there’s no other prime secondary option. Dalton Schultz has been solid, but Cleveland typically erases tight ends.

The Browns are worse against the run than the pass. However, this isn’t a major liability, as they are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping ground attacks. Still, there might be an opportunity for Devin Singletary to gain some yardage and put Stroud into favorable passing situations.

RECAP: Anyone expecting a repeat of what the Browns did to the Texans three weeks ago will be disappointed with the results. The Texans will have three of their better players on the field this time, after all.

Still, this is a difficult matchup for a rookie quarterback. Signal-callers making their first playoff start have a dubious history of covering unless they are road underdogs. Take a look at this breakdown:

Home Favorites:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU

Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU

Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU

Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU

Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU

Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU

Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU

Deshaun Watson (-2), HOU, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Lamar Jackson (-3), BAL, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Mitchell Trubisky (-6.5), CHI, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Patrick Mahomes (-4.5), KC, 2018: Win ATS, Win SU

Jimmy Garoppolo (-6.5), SF, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU

Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU

Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU

Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Carson Wentz (+2), PHI, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Taylor Heinicke (+10), WAS, 2020: Win ATS, Loss SU

C.J. Stroud (+2.5), HOU, 2023: ??? ATS, ??? SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU

Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU

Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU

Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU

Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU

Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU

Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU

Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU

Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU

Josh Allen (+3), BUF, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Ryan Tannehill (+4.5), TEN, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU

Baker Mayfield (+5.5), CLE, 2020: Win ATS, Win SU

Mac Jones (+4), NE, 2021: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Kyler Murray (+3.5), ARZ, 2021: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Skylar Thompson (+13.5), MIA, 2022: Win ATS, Loss SU

Daniel Jones (+3), NYG, 2022: Win ATS, Win SU

Tyler Huntley (+8.5), BAL, 2022: Win ATS, Loss SU

Tua Tagovailoa (+3.5), MIA, 2023, ??? ATS, ??? SU

Mason Rudolph (+10), PIT, 2023, ??? ATS, ??? SU

Jordan Love (+7.5), GB, 2023, ??? ATS, ??? SU

In summary:

Home favorites: 6-16 ATS, 9-13 SU

Home underdogs: 3-6 ATS, 2-7 SU

Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU

Road underdogs: 11-12 ATS, 6-17 SU

Road Underdogs (7+): 5-6 ATS, 1-10 SU

Combined Record: 17-36-1 ATS, 17-37 SU

Home underdogs are just 2-7 straight up, so that doesn’t bode well for Stroud. However, it’s also fair to question the caliber of quarterback associated with this trend. Most of those home underdog quarterbacks weren’t nearly as talented as Stroud, so there’s a chance the Texans buck this trend with a victory, especially after seeing the Browns a few weeks ago.

This is a close call for me, so much so that I’m considering the Browns at -2.5 and Texans at +3. I have stronger opinions on the other playoff games, but I’m not going to bet this one.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Will Anderson and Noah Brown haven’t practiced yet this week, which is a bit of a concern. I can’t find a +3 anywhere, so I’m going to transition back to the Browns at -2.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought about switching to the Texans when sharp money moved this line in Houston’s favor, but I’m going to stick with the Browns. I still have no desire to bet this game.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going over on David Njoku’s receiving yards. Njoku has eclipsed 54.5 receiving yards in six of his previous eight games. He didn’t do so versus Houston, but this is a plus matchup, and I suspect the Texans will sell out to stop Amari Cooper this time. The best number is over 54.5 -125 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, there’s sharp action on the Texans. I still have a lean on the Browns, but not enough to bet this game. If you want to bet Cleveland, the best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-20 ATS as a favorite.

Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight edge on the Browns.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 63% (445,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-20 ATS as a favorite.

Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 30-27 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -2

Titans +3.5

Texans -1

The public closed out the regular season with a 2-1 record.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams +3

Browns -2.5

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Dolphins are a mess defensively. They’ve suffered plenty of injuries to players on this side of the ball. Most of their linebackers will be sidelined, as will some of their pass rushers. I’ve seen some people on Twitter ask how in the world the Dolphins will be able to stop the Chiefs in the opening round of the playoffs.

Those pondering this have somehow forgotten how bad Kansas City’s offense has been this year. Despite the presence of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have struggled to score in many of their games. They’ve only had success when they’ve been able to run with Isiah Pacheco. The Dolphins have excelled against the rush all year, even last week when they had all of those injuries. They limited James Cook to just 36 rushing yards on 13 carries.

The Dolphins can probably be beaten aerially with Xavien Howard and the pass rushers being injured, but it doesn’t seem as though the Chiefs will be able to do that. Kansas City players have done nothing but drop passes and run wrong routes this season. And the one player Mahomes should be able to rely on has looked decrepit, as Travis Kelce has gotten worse as the season has progressed.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If the Chiefs win this game, it’ll have to be done defensively. They were able to restrict the Dolphins to just 14 points in their Germany battle at the midpoint of the season. And that was with a healthy Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert.

We don’t know the status of Waddle and Mostert at the moment. They were close to suiting up last Sunday night, so one can only assume that they’ll be able to play this week. However, that’s not a given, and neither may be 100 percent for all we know. Waddle not being completely there makes it much easier for opposing teams to put the clamps on Tyreek Hill. It’ll be even more crucial to have Waddle available for this contest because the Chiefs are very weak to No. 2 receivers.

As for Mostert, he and De’Von Achane should be able to pick up some decent yardage on the ground. The Chiefs have a sub-par run defense, so the Dolphins should be able to establish the rush and keep Mahomes off the field.

RECAP: I don’t agree with this point spread. I suppose it’s high because of Miami’s defensive injuries, but I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to take advantage of any absences. They’ve struggled to maintain a consistent scoring attack all year, so why would that suddenly change now?

My personal numbers say the Chiefs should be -1. EPA is even more bearish on the Chiefs, projecting this as a pick ’em game. I love that we’re getting both threes with the Dolphins. Kansas City by three and Miami by three seem to be the two most likely results of this contest, so we get both with the +3. If I weren’t concerned with Waddle and Mostert still being injured, this would be a larger play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The weather is going to play a factor in this game with a potential 5-degree environment. It’s hard to like Miami in those conditions. I’m going to switch my pick to the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not looking good for the Dolphins from an injury perspective, as Xavien Howard is out and the top two safeties didn’t practice at all this week. Jaylen Waddle may play, but he was limited in practice all week. It’s not looking good for the Dolphins from a weather perspective either; it’s projected to be minus-1 degrees in Kansas City! I hate taking the Chiefs because they’re so overrated, but they’re the play this week. I also want to bet on the under with projected 19-mph winds.

PLAYER PROPS: Something I love doing is betting the over on mobile quarterback rushing yards in the playoffs unless the game is projected to be a blowout. Quarterbacks will run more in the playoffs if they can, and I assume that’ll apply to Patrick Mahomes. The best number is over 25.5 -111 at FanDuel.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to throw Mahomes over rushing yards into a same-game parlay with the following: Tyreek Hill under 86.5 receiving yards, Isiah Pacheco over 3.5 receptions, and Mecole Hardman under 13.5 receiving yards. Hill is banged up, and he has a rough matchup in a tough weather environment. Pacheco has been a big part of the passing game lately, and in heavy winds, he could see some checkdowns. As for Hardman, he eclipsed 13 receiving yards once this year. That was in Week 18 when all the starters sat. This parlay pays +1149 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more a bet on the Chiefs seems unappealing. I know the weather benefits them, but they suck. Also, there’s a slight sharp edge on the Dolphins. I’ve decided not to make a wager on the Chiefs, but I will bet the under in addition to the props/parlay posted above. The best bet for that is under 43.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: .

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (519,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 28-18 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Patrick Mahomes is 81-24 SU, 56-48 ATS (44-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Clear, minus-1 degrees. MILD-HEAVY WINDS, 19 mph.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (519,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 28-18 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Patrick Mahomes is 81-24 SU, 56-48 ATS (44-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Clear, minus-1 degrees. MILD-HEAVY WINDS, 19 mph.