NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2023 – Early Games

Nick Bosa
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
2023 NFL Picks: 68-74-5 (-$7,675)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10 Early Games

Carolina Panthers (1-7) at Chicago Bears (2-7)
Line: Bears by 3.5. Total: 38.5.

Friday, Nov. 10, 7:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 9 Analysis: It seems like we sink to new lows as far as bad beats are concerned. I need to vent, so I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Vikings, 5 units (win): Even this win was BS. Jaren Hall came out firing, but got injured. The Vikings had to use a quarterback who was on the roster for five days. Josh Dobbs struggled as a result early, but thankfully we got the win.

Rams, 3 units (loss): I’m not pissed about this loss. I don’t have much to complain about here either. The Packers won 20-3, but this was a 7-3 game at halftime and a 10-3 game after three quarters. Then again, the Packers outgained the Rams by a wide margin. Where was this level of play against the Broncos and Raiders?

Texans, 3 units (loss): We had -2.5. The Texans scored a touchdown to go up two at the end. They would have kicked the extra point, but their kicker was injured, so they just kneeled down instead of trying the two-point conversion! What the f**k is this? We’re not even that far removed from losing our Pick of the Month on a safety. I’m convinced I’m cursed, and I’m being totally serious. How does one lift a curse?

Giants, 4 units (loss): Another bulls**t result, with Daniel Jones suffering a torn ACL when this was a 7-0 game. I’m convinced Jones wouldn’t have torn his ACL had I not bet the Giants. The Giants just quit with Tommy DeVito because they knew they had no chance, and I don’t blame them. Why the f**k is Tommy DeVito in the league? Is this part of a Make a Wish Foundation where he gets to experience being a backup in the NFL?

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): The Cowboys were stopped inches from the goal line not once, but twice in the second half of this game. Just one instance of crossing the goal line would have given us a push at the very least. The Cowboys would have gotten those inches had I been on the Eagles.

Jets, 3 units (loss): Punt return touchdown. Fumble. Fumble. Fumble. Fumble. Why can’t this happen to teams I bet against?

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Chiefs -1.5 and Bengals -2: I’m putting these two together because I loved both sides early in the week, but didn’t bet either. I got talked out of the Chiefs because they traveled late to Germany. And I removed my Bengals units because of the shady reverse line movement. I’m just going to stick with my convictions from now on.

Redskins +3: I loved the idea of fading Mac Jones, but I thought the Redskins would be flat after trading away their two best players. I haven’t diagnosed motivational angles well at all this year (scroll toward the bottom to see.)

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Justin Fields was limited in Monday’s practice, but it’s unclear if he’ll be available to play this game. We don’t have much else to go on at the moment, though it’s worth noting that this spread rose from -3 to -3.5 upon that news being released.

Even if Fields plays, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent. Fields is coming off a thumb injury, so that issue could still bother him if he returns to action. Fields also has a difficult matchup against a Carolina defense that has gotten some key personnel back from extended absences. The Panthers can generate great pressure on the quarterback, which should bother Fields or Tyson Bagent because of some missing personnel on Chicago’s offensive line.

Despite all the negativity toward the Bears thus far, it must be noted that they’ll have a good chance to move the chains in this game because the Panthers are putrid versus the run. D’Onta Foreman figures to thrive in a revenge spot.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is coming off an embarrassing performance against the Colts, which was worsened by C.J. Stroud’s incredible showing versus the Buccaneers. The Panthers outgained Indianapolis in net yards and yards per play, but lost by a couple of touchdowns because of two pick-sixes.

Young will struggle in most matchups, but this could be an exception. The Bears have been horrible against the pass all year. Montez Sweat will help, but the pass rush is lackluster, so Young will have as much time as he needs to locate his receivers.

Unlike the Panthers defense, Chicago is excellent versus the run. The Bears have shut down some talented backs recently, including Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs. Limiting Chuba Hubbard won’t be a problem.

RECAP: It’s still unclear if Fields will play. If he does, I’d lean toward the Panthers because there would be a decent chance that he would still be hindered by his injured thumb. We’d obviously have a higher spread, so the Panthers would even have a chance at a back-door cover.

If it’s Bagent again, I think I’d still like the Panthers. I’d like getting four of the six major key numbers by fading Bagent, who is prone to mistakes. The Panthers have an excellent pass defense that could cause trouble for the young quarterback.

I’m going to leave this at Panthers for zero units at the moment, but once we find out Fields’ status and get the adjusted spread on this game, I may have a bet of some sort. Check back later for an update!

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This one is tough to handicap. On one hand, betting Tyson Bagent as a favorite of more than three seems foolish. On the other hand, the Panthers are missing so many key players, including Brian Burns and C.J. Henderson. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game will go.

PLAYER PROP: Jonathan Mingo has cleared 31.5 receiving yards in two of his previous four games. D.J. Chark is out, and Mingo will be playing against a pass-funnel Chicago defense. The best odds are 31.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If the Panthers were healthier, I’d bet them. I just can’t do it without Brian Burns on the field. The sharps have been betting them though. If you like Carolina, the best line is +3.5 -110 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Bears fought hard as big underdogs and are now favored over an inferior team.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers. Calculated Spread: Bears -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight lean on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 60% (558,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Panthers 17
    Panthers +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Jonathan Mingo over 31.5 receiving yards -113 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
    Bears 16, Panthers 13

    Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at New England Patriots (2-7)
    Line: Colts by 1. Total: 43.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 8:30 AM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s truly amazing how putrid this Patriots passing attack is. Mac Jones was gifted a beautiful matchup last week against a Redskins defense that was already horrendous against the pass, but was made worse by Montez Sweat and Chase Young being traded. Yet, Jones struggled throughout the game, barely putting up any points and eventually losing.

    This was not all on Jones because his Kendrick Bourne-less receiving corps was horrendous, but he made some mistakes he shouldn’t have made. This must be noted because Jones has another positive matchup this week. The Colts have been missing their top two outside cornerbacks in the past couple of games and can be beaten via the pass. Jones not having Bourne is a real killer, however, as Jones has to rely on crap players outside of Demario Douglas. JuJu Smith-Schuster has not been the same caliber of receiver as Jakobi Meyers was, so you have to wonder why Bill Belichick effectively traded between the two.

    The one chance the Patriots have of moving the chains is on the ground with their two running backs. The Colts used to be stout versus the run, but that has changed ever since they lost Grover Stewart to a suspension.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Patriots also have a depleted defense. Belichick’s secondary would have confused the hell out of Sam Howell with a dominant performance, but they could do little to confuse him, outside of one horrendous toss into the end zone that was picked by Kyle Dugger.

    This is also crucial information for this matchup because Gardner Minshew has been a train wreck as far as turnovers are concerned. Minshew melted down against top-10 defenses he faced when battling the Jaguars, Browns, and Saints. The Patriots had the potential for a top-10 defense earlier in the year, but with so many key players injured, that’s not the case.

    Besides, the Colts can just keep the ball out of Minshew’s hands by feeding it to Jonathan Taylor. The Patriots are decent at stopping the run, but Taylor is a mega talent who can break through most tougher matchups.

    RECAP: Two weeks ago, I compared the Patriots to being an ex-girlfriend. I was in an abusive relationship with them when they cost me lots of money in the Dallas, New Orleans and Las Vegas games. I then broke up with them and saw them with a new guy when they upset the Bills. I wanted to get back together with them when they played the Dolphins, but I realized that I needed to move on, and it ended up being for the best. The Patriots failed to cover versus Miami and Washington. Indeed, I was dating a new, hot babe, while the Patriots’ recent Facebook pictures revealed that they looked like they got hit by a truck.

    However, I just can’t resist. I keep looking at the Patriots’ profile, hoping that she’d contact me, and we could rekindle our relationship. I have the urge to contact them – picking them this week, if you’re not following – but man, I just can’t. It would be too much of a mistake.

    My argument is this: The Colts are overrated. They beat the Panthers by two touchdowns, but only because of two pick-sixes. They are extremely banged up. If there’s ever a game the Patriots can steal, it’s this one.

    But I just can’t do it. I’ve been burned too many times. And so have the sharps, for that matter. What sort of mentality will the Patriots have traveling overseas anyway? The Colts at least have a chance at the playoffs, so they have hope. The Patriots have nothing going for them, so they could be going through the motions on this long trip.

    After all that, I’ve decided to side with the Colts. I don’t love it, but it beats going back to that abusive relationship.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t have a desire to bet this game. I’m still on the Colts for no units because I think there’s a good chance the Patriots will mail this one in. If they don’t, however, they could certainly win.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are still pretty banged up, being down their top two tackles and perhaps Josh Downs. However, they’re at least getting Braden Smith back from injury. I wish the Colts were healthier because fading the Patriots is very appealing. I am not very high on Indianapolis either, so I think this will just be a pass for me.

    PLAYER PROPS: I like Michael Pittman over 65.5 receiving yards. In five full games with Gardner Minshew, Pittman has eclipsed 65.5 receiving yards three times, and he’s two yards away from it being 4-of-5. The Patriots rank in the bottom 10 of fantasy points allowed to outside receivers. The best number is over 65.5 -115 at BetMGM. I’m also going to bet Pittman to score the first touchdown. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Thank goodness this is the final one of these dreadful European games. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I don’t plan on doing so either. If you like the Colts, the best number is -1 -108 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

    The Patriots could be sluggish going overseas with nothing to play for.

    The Spread. Edge: Colts. Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.

    Computer Model: Colts -5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on New England: 59% (161,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

  • Bill Belichick is 35-16 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Patriots 20
    Colts -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Michael Pittman over 65.5 receiving yards -115 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Correct; +$150
    Player Prop: Michael Pittman to score first touchdown +1050 (0.25 Units) – PointsBet — Incorrect; -$25
    Colts 10, Patriots 6

    Houston Texans (4-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
    Line: Bengals by 5.5. Total: 46.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 12:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

    HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. This isn’t necessarily hate mail, but rather sad truth mail:

    I am cursed, so feel free to go full fade.

    Here’s actual hate mail via tweets:

    I don’t know why this Steven Gay guy thinks that writing the word “Redskins” is edgy. There’s nothing edgy about fighting blatant racism. And what is up with Mister Antelope not recognizing that proper nouns need to be capitalized?

    Anyway, I had more interactions with Mister Antelope:

    Is Mister Antelope one of these Elizabeth Warren Native Americans? That would make the most sense because he doesn’t know what most Native Americans want. Then again, Mister Tweets Like Antelope could just be a mentally deranged individual.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud continued his excellent rookie season last week. He was able to bounce back off a frustrating loss and destroy the Buccaneers by throwing for nearly 500 yards. He broke the rookie single-game passing record, previously held by Marc Bulger. And to think, the Panthers coaches wanted Stroud, but management said they knew better when they selected Bryce Young instead.

    Stroud, however, could take a step backward in this game. There’s a huge difference between battling the inept Buccaneers and surging Bengals. Cincinnati places a good deal of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while its young and improving secondary can limit receivers very well. Stroud was able to exploit a Tampa secondary that couldn’t cover slot receivers at all, which would explain Noah Brown’s big performance. The Bengals are much better in this regard.

    The Bengals can also clamp down on the run very well, but this isn’t an area of strength for the Texans anyway. Stroud’s only real option would be to target Dalton Schultz, as Cincinnati just surrendered a big game to Dalton Kincaid.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The sharps refused to believe it, but Joe Burrow is 100 percent again. He torched the 49ers and Bills in consecutive weeks, all while being able to scramble well. There’s no stopping him right now.

    I don’t know what the Texans can do to limit Burrow. They place a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback, but not enough to limit Burrow. They couldn’t even prevent Baker Mayfield from going up and down the field on them last week.

    Houston is especially poor versus the run. Joe Mixon has looked much sprier in the past two weeks than he did earlier in the season, so this is a matchup he’ll be able to exploit.

    RECAP: In the previous pick capsule, I discussed that I think the Ravens could be looking ahead to battling the Bengals on Thursday night. There’s a decent chance Cincinnati treats this game similarly. Their battle against the Ravens next week could determine the division.

    However, I think there’s less of a chance that the Bengals look ahead, even though this is a non-divisional game. I have two reasons for thinking this. First, the Bengals aren’t battling a team they’ve played yet like the Ravens are with the Browns. The Bengals may not have the same level of arrogance the Ravens will possess in their matchup versus Cleveland. Second, everyone is talking up Stroud as the next best thing. Even though the Bengals are favored by a touchdown, there’s a good chance they’ll take the Texans seriously because of what Stroud accomplished last week.

    This is all theoretical, by the way, so I can’t justify betting it. As mentioned in the previous pick capsule, the motivational angle has been the worst this year, as things are topsy-turvy for some reason. Maybe it has to do with me being cursed. I don’t know. Whatever it is, I’m going to stop trying to guess motivational angles until I can see some evidence that they work again.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Ja’Marr Chase in Wednesday’s practice wasn’t a surprise at all. Houston had plenty of players miss Wednesday’s practice as well, including Will Anderson and Laremy Tunsil.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I said on the After Dark show that I was going to switch my pick to the Texans if both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were out. Higgins is sidelined for sure, while Chase is questionable after being DNP-limited-limited in practice this week. We won’t know Chase’s status until Sunday morning, unfortunately.

    PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Schultz has gone over the receiving yard prop (46.5) in three of his previous four games. He has a chance of making it 4-of-5 because 1) Nico Collins is likely out, and 2) the Bengals have surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this year. The best vig is -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: A ton of sharp money came in on the Texans around 10 a.m. I was wondering if this meant that Ja’Marr Chase wouldn’t play, but he’s in the lineup. Maybe someone knows that Chase is going to be severely limited. Either way, I don’t have any interest in betting this game, though I am sticking with Cincinnati in survivor. Bengals -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker is the best line. If you want to join the sharps by betting Houston, the best line is +6 -115 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

    A classic Sandwich Situation for the Bengals. After a win versus the Bills on national TV, they have this game, then a battle versus the Ravens on Thursday night.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Bengals -7.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.5.

    Computer Model: Bengals -5.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

    Plenty of action on the Bengals.

    Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 73% (198,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

  • Joe Burrow is 36-16 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
  • Opening Line: Bengals -8.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: .

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Bengals 34, Texans 24
    Bengals -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Dalton Schultz over 46.5 receiving yards -115 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Correct; +$150
    Texans 30, Bengals 27

    New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
    Line: Saints by 3. Total: 41.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 12:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

    Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Jets in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers injury, the Vikings had a plan for when Kirk Cousins got hurt. They traded for Joshua Dobbs almost instantly, a move that has already paid dividends. Dobbs had a rough start to last week’s game, but had an incredible fourth quarter to lead the team to victory.

    Dobbs, however, as a much tougher matchup this week. The Saints clamp down on outside receivers and tight ends very well, so Dobbs won’t have as much luck targeting Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Running the ball won’t be much of an option either. New Orleans is great versus ground attacks, while the Vikings don’t run the ball very well.

    The Saints also generate good pressure on the quarterback, so Dobbs will need Christian Darrisaw on the field to protect his blind side. Darrisaw was a late addition to the injury report last week, so perhaps he’ll be able to return this Sunday.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s important to diagnose how a quarterback fares against the blitz when handicapping any Vikings game because Minnesota, under Brian Flores, blitzes more than any other team in the NFL. Remarkably, Derek Carr’s numbers when blitzed versus when not blitzed are almost identical. His completion percentage and YPA barely change at all.

    With that in mind, Carr has a nice matchup in this game. The Vikings, despite their improved defense, still have some holes in the secondary. Chris Olave figures to have another solid performance, but the player with the best matchup is Rashid Shaheed, given how poor Minnesota has been versus slot receivers this year.

    The Vikings are much better versus the run than the pass, which gives them a fighting chance in this game. They’ll be able to limit Alvin Kamara as a rusher, while Taysom Hill won’t be able to do his usual nonsense.

    RECAP: I hate that these teams are battling each other this week because they can both be viewed as underrated. Minnesota’s win over the Falcons was no fluke, as the Vikings possess a talented roster that can win with a backup quarterback like Dobbs. Things will get even better for them once they get back some key players from injury. The Saints, meanwhile, have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and with Kamara injecting some life into an offense that was morbid to start the year, they can go deep into the playoffs.

    I’m torn on this game. I like the idea of getting the points with the Vikings, especially given Carr’s poor career record as a road favorite, but I’m also concerned about backing a reserve quarterback against a top defense. This is why I’m going to side with the Saints, but I’m not happy about it.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Saints, and I assume it’s because they want to fade all the Josh Dobbs hype. People are excited about Dobbs, but the fact remains that he’s a backup quarterback about to battle a top-10 defense.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Big news on the injury report, as Justin Jefferson has a chance to return this week. With Christian Darrisaw returning, if Jefferson plays, Minnesota will look appealing at +3. This news might be why the sharps have moved off the Saints.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No Justin Jefferson, so I’ll stay on he Saints. The sharps have been on both sides of this game. If you like the Saints, you can get -3 -103 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.

    Computer Model: Saints -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Minnesota: 53% (159,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

  • Derek Carr is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Vikings are 42-33 ATS at home since 2014 (11-18 ATS since 2020).
  • Opening Line: Saints -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 20, Vikings 17
    Saints -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Vikings 27, Saints 19

    Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
    Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 38.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 12:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I heard the news late in the week when I already made up my mind about the game, but when I learned Saturday evening that the Packers were comfortable with giving Aaron Jones an entire workload, I should have re-considered my Packers fade. Jones looked like his old self versus the Rams, a team that handles the run pretty well.

    Having Jones at full strength will give the Packers a fighting chance in this contest. The Steelers have been poor versus the run for most of the year, but this is something that is likely to change with Cameron Heyward back in action. With a game under his belt, Heyward should be better in this contest, especially after extra rest. Having Jones as a threat in the backfield as opposed to the plodding A.J. Dillon should help neutralize Heyward’s presence.

    Jones serving as a distraction can only help “No Cookie” Jordan Love, who will have a good matchup if his offensive line can keep him clean. The Steelers have a great pass rush, so I wouldn’t count on that happening. However, Pittsburgh has been very weak to outside receivers this year, so there’s a chance that Love will finally be able to connect with Christian Watson.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There’s also reason to believe that Green Bay’s defense will be better moving forward. It’s difficult to tell from last week’s performance because Green Bay was going up against the inept Brett Rypien, but the Packers are much healthier than they were in the past. De’Vondre Campbell and Jaire Alexander are at full strength, with the latter performing on a high level for the first time last week. Granted, this was against Rypien’s receivers, but Alexander was bound to dominate sooner or later.

    This is obviously bad news for Kenny Pickett, who certainly has his ups and downs. Pickett’s offense has been bolstered by Diontae Johnson’s return, and Johnson will be very useful in this game with Alexander likely to lock up George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth still sidelined with an injury.

    The weakness of the Packers is their rushing attack, but the Steelers won’t be able to exploit that. They have obvious with their rushing attack, so it’ll be up to Pickett and one receiver versus an improved defense. That doesn’t sound great.

    RECAP: Here’s another game in which I wish two teams weren’t playing against each other because I want to back both. This might surprise you about the Packers because they’ve been so dreadful at times this year, but I think they’re beginning to figure things out with their defense. Plus, Jones is healthy for the first time in a while. The Steelers, conversely, are top 10 in the metrics and will only continue to improve with Heyward and Johnson back from injury.

    I’m going to side with the Packers because Pittsburgh won’t be able to exploit their big weakness. Plus, I get the feeling the Steelers are going to win an ugly game by one or two points and fail to cover because that’s just what they do. They kick so many field goals that they tend to have odd results of that sort. That’s all I have for this game, so let’s just move on to picks I actually like.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mike Tomlin is great as an underdog, but as a favorite? Not so much. The Steelers are 70-87 against the spread as favorites of three or more under Tomlin. Now, you might be thinking, “Well, that includes very high spreads. He must be fine at -3.” That is not the case. Remarkably, Tomlin is just 7-14 against the spread as a favorite of exactly three. Oh, and get this: Excluding the Thursday night game versus the Titans, the last time the Steelers covered at home as a favorite of -3 or more was in 2020 when they bea the Bengals, 36-10. I like the Packers.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I liked the Packers earlier in the week, but man, they have so many injuries. Jaire Alexander is out, so the top two cornerbacks are missing with Rasul Douglas traded. Kenny Clark, Rudy Ford and two starting offensive linemen (Josh Myers, Jon Runyan) are questionable with limited practices all week. I’m off Green Bay.

    PLAYER PROPS: I love Aaron Jones in this game. He’s 100-percent healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. This is a great matchup for him, as the Steelers have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards this year. The best number is over 52.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander and Quay Walker won’t play, but the Packers will have all of their other questionable players in action. That makes them a bit appealing, as does the fact that the sharps are on the Packers. I’ll bet a unit on Green Bay. The best line +3 +100 at Caesars and BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

    The Steelers battle the Browns next week. This is after a win on national TV.

    The Spread. Edge: Steelers. Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.

    Computer Model: Steelers -5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

    No one wants to bet on the Packers?

    Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 70% (152,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Steelers -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Sunny, 48 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Packers 17
    Packers +3 +100 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$100
    Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Aaron Jones over 52.5 rushing yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$170
    Steelers 23, Packers 19

    Tennessee Titans (3-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
    Line: Buccaneers by 2.5. Total: 38.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 12:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I was pleastantly surprised by what I saw out of Will Levis last Thursday. Levis had a great debut versus the Falcons, but was in a much tougher spot against Mike Tomlin’s defense on a short work week. Instead of struggling, however, Levis composed himself quite well and nearly pulled the upset.

    This bodes well for Levis’ outlook in this game. He’ll be battling a Tampa Bay defense that can’t generate pressure on the quarterback and struggles to cover everyone, chiefly slot receivers and tight ends. Levis has shown a nice connection with Kyle Phillips, so perhaps he’ll have a solid performance. DeAndre Hopkins will get his as well.

    The Buccaneers are at least strong against the run. Levis won’t be able to lean on Derrick Henry very much, but his outlook is still bright because of how awful the Buccaneers are versus aerial attacks.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Despite C.J. Stroud’s heroics last week, the Buccaneers nearly prevailed. Baker Mayfield was terrific at times, leading multiple scoring drives late in the game. He routinely found Mike Evans and Cade Otton for big gains.

    The Titans are solid against tight ends, so I wouldn’t expect a big Otton game again. Evans, conversely, has a terrific matchup against a Tennessee secondary that has struggled to cover the deep pass. Evans and Chris Godwin figure to take advantage of this liability.

    Tennessee, however, can counter this by exploiting the Buccaneers’ offensive weakness, which would be pass protection. The Titans have talented players in the front seven who can hound Mayfield. Also, Mayfield won’t be able to lean on the run like he did last week. Rachaad White has a brutal matchup against Tennessee’s strong ground defense.

    RECAP: I realize that I haven’t registered a single bet yet, but it has nothing to do with this alleged curse I spoke of earlier. All the games I like just happen to be in the second half of the slate.

    That begins with this one. I love the Titans this week. Levis has been very impressive, as he has breathed some life into an offense that was dead with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. Hopkins’ improved health obviously plays a factor in that as well. We just saw Stroud torch the Buccaneers’ horrible pass defense, and while Levis obviously won’t have the same sort of record-breaking success, he should have a positive performance.

    I also love the idea of fading the Buccaneers. Their early, misleading success this season has led so many people astray. Tampa Bay is easily one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they’re not being priced as such. My numbers suggest Tennessee -3 is the correct line. EPA metrics completely agree with that.

    We would have won by fading the Buccaneers last week if Houston’s stupid kicker didn’t get hurt. Let’s claim the money we’re rightfully owed for fading Tampa again.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both of Tampa’s starting cornerbacks missed Wednesday’s practice, so their pass defense, which was already terrible, could be even worse this week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans are down two starting offensive linemen, though only one (Daniel Brunskill) is good. Talented cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is also sidelined. The Buccaneers could miss Carlton Davis, but he has struggled. I still love the Titans, and the sharps have continued to bet them as well.

    PLAYER PROPS: Kyle Phillips is a great bet this week. He’s been getting more production recently because of his improved health and rapport with Will Levis. The injury to Treylon Burks only helps matters. I’m going with the over 2.5 receptions, which has positive vig at the sportsbooks for some reason. The best line is over 2.5 +140 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Carlton Davis is out, but that hasn’t changed the minds of the sharps, who pounded the Buccaneers late last night. There’s been so much sharp action that this line has gone to +2.5 in most places. In fact, you can get +3 -118 at DraftKings! You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Titans. Calculated Spread: Titans -3.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.

    Computer Model: Titans -3.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

    Equal action for most of the week.

    Percentage of money on Tennessee: 69% (152,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Titans.

  • Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.
  • Road Team is 128-88 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Buccaneers are 38-69 ATS at home in the previous 107 instances.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 85 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Buccaneers 23
    Titans +3 -118 (5 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$590
    Over 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Kyle Philips over 2.5 receptions +140 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Correct; +$210
    Buccaneers 20, Titans 6

    San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
    Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 44.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 12:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers were in shambles on this side of the ball heading into the bye. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams were sidelined for multiple games, while Christian McCaffrey was on a pitch count after getting banged up versus the Browns. Everyone on the team should be healthy on offense heading out of the bye.

    The 49ers will need all hands on deck in this matchup, which is not something I would have said even a year ago. The Jaguars are second against the pass and generate good pressure on the quarterback. It’ll be important to have Williams on the field to protect Brock Purdy’s blind side. Samuel being available to help Purdy navigate through Jacksonville’s secondary is crucial as well.

    Purdy will need to rebound off some negative performances heading into the bye because the Jaguars also excel versus the run. However, it’s still incredibly difficult to stop Christian McCaffrey, who can create huge plays at any moment. Despite the difficult matchup, McCaffrey will still be able to spark some scoring drives.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The 49ers will have reinforcements on this side of the ball as well heading into this contest. No injured players will be returning, but rather someone obtained at the trade deadline. That would be Chase Young, who will be an enormous boost for a San Francisco defense that was ranked conspicuously low in the EPA rankings.

    The trio of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Young will be incredibly difficult to block, and I imagine the Jaguars will have severe difficulty doing so. The weakness of Jacksonville’s roster is the offensive line, so this is an area where San Francisco can really dominate in this matchup. Trevor Lawrence will constantly be under siege, so he may have trouble exploiting the weakness of the 49ers, which would be the cornerback group.

    Perhaps Travis Etienne will be able to assist Lawrence from being pressured too much. The 49ers looked like they had trouble versus Joe Mixon in the game prior to the bye. Mixon has endured a tough season, and yet he thrived versus the 49ers. Etienne has been much better than Mixon, so he could have a strong performance versus a San Francisco team ranked in the middle of the pack versus the run.

    RECAP: I like the 49ers. I think we’re getting a short line with them in this game. Had they not gone into a three-game tailspin prior to the bye, this spread would definitely be above three. They lost three in a row, but only because of some key injuries. With the players returning, as well as Young joining the team, San Francisco should be back to where it was prior to the Cleveland game.

    I wish we were getting the 49ers against a worse team because I like the Jaguars a lot. This won’t be a highly bet pick as a result. If San Francisco were battling an overrated team, this selection would be at least three units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Jaguars. I can’t say I understand why. I’ve yet to hear a good case for the Jaguars, who have yet to beat an elite team, much like the Dolphins and Cowboys. And no, the Bills don’t count.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been wondering why the sharps have been pounding the Jaguars. Perhaps it’s San Francisco’s offensive line concerns. Trent Williams is not a lock to return to action this week, while fellow starter Aaron Banks has been ruled out. Banks is not good by any means, but it’s still another starter who could be missing. If Williams plays, I’m definitely on the 49ers. If he’s out, I’ll have to re-think this pick, but I won’t be betting this game regardless.

    PLAYER PROPS: This is surprising, but the 49ers are in the bottom five of allowing fantasy points to wide receivers. Their cornerbacks have struggled this year, and we’re getting a great price on Calvin Ridley. He’s over 50.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Jaguars all week. I have no interest. The best line is -3 -115 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: 49ers -1.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.

    Computer Model: 49ers -1.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 53% (197,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

  • Brock Purdy is 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS.
  • Jaguars are 60-101 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Jaguars are 18-50 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Jaguars 21
    49ers -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 44.5 (0 Units)“ — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Calvin Ridley over 50.5 receiving yards -114 (1.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$170
    49ers 34, Jaguars 3

    Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
    Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 38.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 12:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 16-16 ATS.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

  • Jets +3.5
  • Browns -11.5
  • Seahawks +6
  • Vikings +4
  • The public hit two of its three top plays on Sunday. They lost with the Jets, however.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

  • Lions -1.5
  • Seahawks -6
  • Steelers -3
  • Cowboys -15.5
  • Cardinals +1.5
  • Bills -8.5
  • A wide variety of bets. Some road favorites, some home favorites and even one home dog!

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Browns have a great defense, but the unit didn’t perform very well in the Week 4 matchup against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson nearly completed every pass he threw, going 15-of-19 for 186 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored twice on the ground. Cleveland had no answer for him, though it must be noted that the Browns gave a lackluster effort because they knew they had no chance with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm.

    The Browns should have a better effort in this contest, and they’ll be able to put lots of pressure on Jackson. It’s likely that Jackson will have to use his legs more to escape pressure, as he rushed for “only” 27 yards in the first meeting. Jackson’s weapons will also have issues getting open. The Browns cover receivers well and are atop the league when it comes to clamping down on tight ends.

    The Ravens have gotten a lot out of their running backs lately, but that likely won’t continue in this game. The Browns also thrive at stopping the run, so Gus Edwards’ touchdown tirade is likely to come to an end.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It was unclear what we’d see out of Deshaun Watson in his first game back from rotator cuff injury. He struggled early, but improved as the game progressed. Still, it’s fair to be skeptical because he was battling the worst defense in the NFL.

    The Ravens will obviously provide a much tougher challenge than the Cardinals did last week. Amari Cooper was able to get open easily against Arizona’s putrid secondary, but the Ravens cover receivers extremely well. They are less potent against tight ends compared to the Browns, so perhaps David Njoku can pick up the slack.

    Baltimore will also be able to shut down the run. The Browns have a better ground defense, but the Ravens are still ranked near the top against opposing running backs, and it’s not like the Browns have an imposing ground game.

    RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. The Ravens are undoubtedly better than the Browns, and I say undoubtedly because the Browns are now down their two starting tackles in the wake of Jedrick Wills’ injury. The Ravens have a stellar defense, and I don’t know how Cleveland will keep them out of the backfield. Also, it’s tough to trust Deshaun Watson when he’s not battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

    However, I have to wonder about Baltimore’s focus in this game. The Ravens already beat the Browns in blowout fashion, so they may not take them seriously. Also, they have to battle the Bengals in just four days after this game. They have to know that Cincinnati, despite having the same record as Cleveland, is a greater threat to them now that Joe Burrow is healthy. I could see the Ravens being distracted and not playing their best.

    I’m going to side with the Browns for the motivational perspective, but I will point out that motivation has been the weakest of these angles this year, as you can see if you scroll down and look at all the records.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but the sharps are betting the Browns. It’s odd that they’re simply willing to ignore the fact that Cleveland could be down its top three offensive tackles.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Any consideration I had for the Browns went out with the window with Dawand Jones being ruled out. This means the Browns will be down their top three tackles against a great defense. The sharps are off the Browns, perhaps for this reason.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wondering if we’d see a +7 of any sort, but the best line is +6.5 -110 at Caesars and DraftKings. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Ravens -8.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.5.

    Computer Model: Ravens -6.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 56% (194,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 31 meetings (Road Team has covered 17 of the last 26 non-pushes).
  • Lamar Jackson is 8-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 51 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Browns 16
    Browns +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Browns 33, Ravens 31

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 10 – Late Games

    Falcons at Cardinals  |  Lions at Chargers  |  Giants at Cowboys  |  Redskins at Seahawks  |  Jets at Raiders  |  Broncos at Bills  | 

    Comments on the 2023 NFL Season’s Games and Picks

    NFL Picks - Sept. 11

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

    2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25

    NFL Power Rankings - June 2

    Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games

    On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results