NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2023 – Late Games

Josh Allen
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
2023 NFL Picks: 68-74-5 (-$7,675)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 11, 6:20 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10 Late Games

Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (1-8)
Line: Falcons by 2. Total: 43.5.

Sunday, Nov. 12, 3:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

Video of the Week: I couldn’t believe it, but here’s a video of Donald Trump and Joe Biden arguing about whether Kingdom Hearts 2 or Kingdom Hearts 3 is better:

Both games were great! Can’t we all just get along!?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray is finally returning to action. Barring a setback, Murray will be on the field for the first time since tearing his ACL late last year. He’ll be a breath of fresh air for an offense that has struggled.

However, it’s unclear what condition Murray will be in during his first game. He could be rusty after so much time off from playing. It’s also possible that he won’t have his complete mobility because of the ACL tear. Running backs and receivers often don’t run well during the season after an ACL injury, so it’s fair to expect similar issues for Murray. This is obviously a huge problem because Murray needs his mobility to be an effective quarterback.

There will also be more on Murray’s shoulders this year because the Cardinals can’t run the ball at all without James Conner. This wasn’t even a positive matchup for that anyway. Atlanta also covers outside receivers well, so Murray will have to rely on targeting Rondale Moore and Trey McBride.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons need to run the ball to win. They’re on a two-game skid because they haven’t been able to be effective on the ground against their previous two opponents. Both the Titans and Vikings are ranked in the upper half of the NFL when it comes to stopping the rush.

The Cardinals, conversely, are ranked toward the bottom in that department. They won’t be able to do anything to stop Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier. Perhaps this will be the huge Robinson game people have been anticipating, but then again, Arthur Smith could just use Keith Smith extensively.

Robinson and Allgeier running well will obviously create opportunities for whomever Arthur Smith decides to use at quarterback. Either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke can have success in this game, given the weakness the Cardinals have in their secondary. It’ll be helpful if Drake London can return from injury.

RECAP: It’s not a common thing for a 1-8 team to be receiving about 80 percent of the betting action (as of Tuesday afternoon.) Then again, the Cardinals are no ordinary 1-8 team, as they’ll be welcoming back their starting quarterback from injury.

Most people will disagree, but I think the Falcons are worthy of a multi-unit wager. How could that be with Murray due back? Well, Murray won’t solve Arizona’s problems. The Cardinals actually had decent quarterbacking out of Dobbs, but still found ways to lose because of their dreadful defense. Their inability to run the ball since Conner’s injury hasn’t helped matters.

The Cardinals are especially poor versus the run, which has to be music to Arthur Smith’s ears. The Falcons have lost their previous two games because they’ve been matched up against teams that are tough against the run. In fact, every game Atlanta has won this year, aside from the victory over the horrible Buccaneers, has been against teams that can’t stop the run. The Panthers, Packers and Texans have horrible ground defenses.

Arizona’s run defense is particularly woeful, so the Falcons will have a strong offensive performance. Meanwhile, the defense should do well, too, given that Murray is playing his first game back from injury. Murray isn’t coming off some routine procedure; he suffered a torn ACL less than a year ago, so it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent in his first game back.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two key players returned to practice, one for each team. Drake London, who was out last week, had a limited designation. The same goes for James Conner, who is coming off injured reserve.

SATURDAY NOTES: I already loved the Falcons. I’m a bigger fan now. The Cardinals could be missing three starting offensive linemen. Trystan Colon is out. D.J. Humphries didn’t practice a single time this week. Will Hernandez was DNP-DNP-limited. I’m shocked the sharps haven’t come in on the Falcons, but it’s not like they’re on Arizona either. I’m bumping this to five units.

PLAYER PROPS: Drake London is the obvious over in this game. The Cardinals are second-worst at defending outside receivers, and London has a good chance to eclipse 46.5 yards with Taylor Heinicke. The best number is over 46.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Public money has evened out on this game, which is a bit of a disappointment. I still love Atlanta though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Falcons. The sharps haven’t taken a stance on this game though. The best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 56% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

  • Cardinals are 45-31 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Cardinals 20
    Falcons -2 -108 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$540
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Drake London over 46.5 receiving yards -115 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$175
    Cardinals 25, Falcons 23

    Detroit Lions (6-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)
    Line: Lions by 2. Total: 48.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 3:05 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    DETROIT OFFENSE: There’s no doubt that the Chargers have improved defensively. They couldn’t generate any quarterback pressure to start the year, but they are now doing so very heavily. They also couldn’t stop the run, but they’ve been much better in that regard as well.

    These improvements may not mean much against the Lions, however. Detroit has an elite offensive line, so it’ll be able to protect Jared Goff. This great blocking could help the Lions generate some positive gains on the ground.

    However, the Chargers still remain weak in the secondary. If they can’t rattle the opposing quarterback, their defensive backfield is primed to get torched. Jared Goff should be able to have a strong performance throwing the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers scored 27 points on Monday night, but their offense was really responsible for only 13, as two touchdowns came on defense and special teams. Of course, they were battling a great Jets defense, but the Lions aren’t bad on this side of the ball themselves.

    The Lions are capable of generating lots of quarterback pressure as well, and they also happen to be stout versus the run. Justin Herbert will constantly be in long-distance situations, as neither Austin Ekeler nor Joshua Kelly will be able to find much running room.

    However, the Chargers have a strong matchup edge in this contest, and that would be Keenan Allen versus the Lions’ slot cornerback. Detroit struggles versus slot receivers, which obviously does not bode well in a matchup against someone as talented as Allen.

    RECAP: This seems like a nice opportunity to fade the Chargers, who have had some misleading victories recently. They beat the Bears by a large margin two weeks ago because Chicago constantly shot itself in the foot. The same thing happened to a greater degree versus the Jets on Monday night. The Jets surrendered a punt return touchdown and lost four fumbles, which would explain why the Chargers won despite being outgained in net yards and yards per play.

    The Chargers have to regress to the mean eventually, and it could happen in this game. The Lions are a superior opponent that will feel comfortable in the Chargers’ indoor stadium. Also, this is a tough scheduling spot for the Chargers, who played a Monday night game on the East Coast and will have to travel across the country on a short week.

    I think it’s telling that the spread has risen in Detroit’s favor despite the 27-6 result on Monday night. I actually don’t think the line is high enough, with the EPA numbers suggesting that it should be -4.5. I’ll take the value with a medium-sized bet on the road favorite.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The spread is up to three, but I still like the Lions. Detroit’s injured offensive linemen from prior to the bye are all practicing fully.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson will be on the field this Sunday, so there’s nothing not to like about the Lions in this matchup.

    PLAYER PROPS: Austin Ekeler has cracked 47 rushing yards only once this year. Granted, he’s missed some action, but Ekeler has gone under that number in four of the five games he has played. It should be 5-of-6 after this game, as Detroit has surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year. The best odds are under 49.5 -111 at Caesars.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been on both sides of this game, betting the Lions up to -3 and then going with the Chargers at +3.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps have had both sides of this game. The Lions seem even more appealing at -2 -110, which you can find at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Lions. Calculated Spread: Lions -2.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.

    Computer Model: Lions -4.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

    No surprise here.

    Percentage of money on Detroit: 81% (191,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.

  • Chargers are 19-26 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Opening Line: Lions -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Chargers 20
    Lions -2 (3 Units) – PointsBet — Correct; +$300
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Austin Ekeler under 49.5 rushing yards -111 (1.5 Units) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$165
    Lions 41, Chargers 38

    New York Giants (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
    Line: Cowboys by 17.5. Total: 39.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 3:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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    DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott had an incredible performance against the Eagles, but lost because of mere inches. Luke Schoonmaker was inches shy of the goal line when he appeared to catch a touchdown, while Prescott himself stepped out of bounds while the ball was inches shy of the goal line on his two-point attempt. Either conversion probably would have led to a Dallas victory.

    Prescott doesn’t have as favorable of a matchup in this game, based on the metrics. The Giants have been able to clamp down on most of their recent competition. They’ve limited the Bills to 14, the Redskins to seven, and the Jets to only seven as well before a couple of heroic drives by Zach Wilson. They were torched by Aidan O’Connell last week, but I believe this was a byproduct of the team giving up once Daniel Jones suffered an injury. They knew they had no chance with Tommy DeVito.

    Some may argue that the Giants will continue to quit, but these are professional players who are looking to get paid. They will not quit two weeks in a row, especially against a hated rival. The Cowboys embarrassed the Giants in the opening week, so the New York players would love nothing more than to crush Dallas’ spirit and derail its season. The Giants can do this by continuing to pressure the quarterback heavily. Prescott saw plenty of pressure last week, and he won’t have as many weak defensive backs to throw against this time.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: I can make an argument for the Giants defense playing well this week, but I can’t do so for the offense. Not with DeVito at the helm. He may be the worst quarterback in the NFL aside from Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

    However, there are a couple of things in DeVito’s favor. One is that the Giants offensive line is healthier now, as Andrew “Cordy Glenn” Thomas will be playing his second game coming back from injury. He’ll be better against a Dallas pass rush that has been a minor disappointment this season.

    The other angle is Saquon Barkley, who is completely healthy. Barkley has a tough matchup as a rusher, but the Cowboys struggle to defend the middle of the field, so perhaps he can enjoy success as a receiver out of the backfield.

    RECAP: I’m going to use this space to convince you not to bet the Cowboys. I’m going to pick Dallas to cover, but won’t be betting them. I just can’t trust DeVito against a defense featuring Micah Parsons.

    However, there are a couple of points of caution. First, this is the Giants’ Super Bowl. They will go all out to beat Dallas. The effort level for the Cowboys will be low because they just lost a heart-breaker to the Eagles. I can’t see them being fully focused in this game.

    Second, this spread is too high. DeVito is pure garbage, but the Giants’ defense is good and will keep the team in the game, at least for a while. If the Giants had a horrible defense, or even a slightly below-average one, I could endorse a Dallas selection, but New York is fifth in defensive EPA.

    Again, I can’t bet the Giants. I just think this is a horrible spot for the Cowboys, and there are easier selections this week.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re worried about betting -16.5, know that favorites of 16.5 or more are 17-13 against the spread since the 2010 lockout. I wonder if it’s correct to bet Dallas, knowing that some will be scared off by the huge number.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There was some concern about Tyron Smith playing, but he’ll be active. The Cowboys are now up to -17.5 at some books, and I’m tempted to bet them because I don’t see how the Giants can score.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still considering a bet, but it won’t be a big wager.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I think I’d bet Dallas for a unit or two if the Titans-Buccaneers game was going our way, but Tennessee is laying a giant egg for no reason. If you’re not tilted, the best line is -17.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

    The Cowboys should be flat after their near-victory against the Eagles.

    The Spread. Edge: Giants. Calculated Spread: Cowboys -13.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -10.

    Computer Model: Cowboys -3.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

    Who wants to bet on Tommy DeVito?

    Percentage of money on Dallas: 89% (171,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

  • History: Cowboys have won 17 of the last 21 meetings.
  • The underdog is 117-95 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Cowboys are 23-14 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Giants 3
    Cowboys -17.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 49, Giants 17

    Washington Redskins (4-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
    Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 44.

    Sunday, Nov. 12, 3:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: .

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    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Redskins are exactly what the doctor ordered for Geno Smith. The Seattle quarterback has struggled mightily lately, as he’s been guilty of far too many turnovers. However, there’s reason to believe Smith will play much better this week.

    Smith has gone against the Browns and Ravens lately. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Redskins, conversely, have one of the league’s worst stop units, ranking 28th in defensive EPA. That number is primed to worsen moving forward, as Chase Young and Montez Sweat will sorely be missed after being traded.

    Smith will take advantage of the Redskins’ lacking pass rush and torch a secondary that has allowed more 50-yard receptions than any other team in the NFL. This isn’t something the Patriots were able to exploit last week because of their horrible receiving corps, but you better believe that at least one of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will go nuclear.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Seattle’s defense has gotten weaker lately as well. The Seahawks had the No. 1 defense heading into Week 8, but struggled to get off the field versus Phillip Walker. They were horrendous against the Ravens, who were able to rip through Seattle’s defense with tons of big plays.

    I doubt the Redskins will have similar success. They struggle to block, and Sam Howell is prone to taking plenty of sacks. This could really hurt Washington in this game, as Seattle has a terrific pass rush that will be aided by Leonard Williams. Howell could be forced into turnovers by a secondary that can limit the outside Washington receivers. The Seahawks struggle versus slot receivers, but Curtis Samuel may not be available to take advantage of that.

    The Seahawks have done poorly versus the run lately, but this is another area that could improve for them. The Redskins don’t block very well for Brian Robinson, so the Seahawks, now with Williams on the roster, could win in the trenches in this matchup.

    RECAP: One of my favorite angles is to bet good teams coming off blowout losses. If you want numbers associated with this phenomenon, here they are: Teams with a winning percentage of 60 or greater coming off blowout defeats (24+) are 83-47 against the spread dating back to 1989. These teams are 4-0 this year, with the latest success being the Lions over the Raiders a couple of Monday nights ago.

    Perhaps some will argue that the Seahawks are not a very good team, as they’ve plummeted in the metrics recently. However, I still think they have plenty of talent and are very well coached, so I think they’ll be able to rebound after being humiliated. Besides, the Redskins are one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their near-.500 record. Teams records mean everything to the common ESPN viewer, so this is another reason why the Seahawks appear to be the right side.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are some -6.5s out there now, and I could see this line moving there. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to lock in this now.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report looks good for the Seahawks to crush the Redskins. I don’t see why Seattle couldn’t win this game easily.

    PLAYER PROPS: D.K. Metcalf’s longest reception prop is 23.5. He has gone over this number in all but two games this year. I like him to go over once again versus the Redskins, who have allowed the most receptions of 50-plus yards this season. The best vig is -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No change here from me. I was hoping the sharps would come in on the Seahawks, but that hasn’t happened yet.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp money on either side. Seahawks -6 -105 is the best number, and you can find that at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

    The Seahawks are a good team coming off an embarrassing loss.

    The Spread. Edge: Redskins. Calculated Spread: Seahawks -6.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.

    Computer Model: Seahawks -3.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

    Rebound game for the Seahawks, according to everyone.

    Percentage of money on Seattle: 79% (151,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Redskins are 19-33 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Seahawks are 59-44 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Seahawks are 8-15 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.
  • Geno Smith is 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -6.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Redskins 20
    Seahawks -6 -105 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$315
    Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: D.K. Metcalf longest reception over 23.5 yards -120 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Correct; +$150
    Seahawks 29, Redskins 26

    New York Jets (4-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
    Line: Jets by 1. Total: 35.5.

    Monday, Nov. 13, 7:20 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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    NEW YORK OFFENSE: We just saw the Jets outgain the Chargers in both net yards and yards per play, yet lose on Monday night. How did this happen? Well, it began with a surrendered punt return touchdown, but it was way more than that. The Jets fumbled four times, including twice by Zach Wilson, who looked like a deer in the headlights in the pocket. Wilson held the ball forever and paid the price.

    Wilson faced major issues against the Chargers pass rush, and he’ll have similarly difficulty in this contest, although less so. The Raiders have gotten after the quarterback well lately, as Maxx Crosby has been a complete terror. Crosby will hound Wilson all evening. It would help if the Jets had healthier protection, but given how long Wilson holds the ball in the pocket, I’m not sure it’ll matter.

    However, there’s a difference between this matchup and the one we saw Monday night. That would be the opposing run defense. The Jets couldn’t run the ball against the Chargers’ stalwart front. The Raiders, conversely, have shown a severe inability to stop the rush. The Lions rammed the ball down the Raiders’ throat two weeks ago, and the Giants would have done the same thing with Saquon Barkley if the game hadn’t gotten out of hand in the wake of Daniel Jones’ torn ACL. Breece Hall figures to have a big performance.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Many looking to bet this game will be eager to fade Wilson, unaware that the Raiders’ quarterbacking situation is even more unappealing. Aidan O’Connell played well last week, but this is a completely different animal.

    The Jets have embarrassed great quarterbacks all year, as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert all struggled against their defense. These are all Pro Bowl signal-callers. O’Connell, on the other hand, will be making his third pro start. O’Connell has gone against the Chargers and Giants thus far, so he hasn’t come close to facing a defense like the Jets.

    The one hope the Raiders have on this side of the ball is with Josh Jacobs. The Jets are a bit weaker to the run, but it’s not a glaring weakness by any means.

    RECAP: I imagine people will be less eager to bet the Jets this week than they were Monday night versus the Chargers because of the 27-6 result. That game was highly fluky, however, as the Jets won’t surrender a punt return touchdown or fumble four times in a single game very often. Once again, the Jets had more net yards and yards per play, even before garbage time, so they’re a prime candidate to rebound.

    This spread has decreased by a point, yet the public is all over the Raiders. This doesn’t surprise me one bit to see such an overreaction. I love the idea of betting the better team while fading a public underdog.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is now pick ’em, as the public has been pounding the Raiders relentlessly. For those betting the Raiders, how do you think they’re going to score?

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets have moved back to a one-point favorite in the wake of the Kolton Miller news. Miller is the Raiders’ best offensive player, so he’ll sorely be missed against the Jets defense. The public doesn’t seem to care, as they’ve been backing the Raiders.

    PLAYER PROPS: Two player props for Sunday night. First, I love the Breece Hall over 63.5 rushing yards, as the Raiders have surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL this year. The best vig on that is -115 at BetMGM. Second, Jakobi Meyers under 43.5 receiving yards is appealing. It’s a small sample size, but Meyers has yet to click with Aidan O’Connell. Also, the Jets simply do not allow opposing outside receivers to do anything. The best vig for this prop is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Raiders, but nothing substantial.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s now no sharp money lean on either side. I still love the Jets, but I’m sure something inexplicable will happen, causing them to lose. The best line is -1 +100 at Caesars.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.5.

    Computer Model: Pick.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

    The public loves the Raiders, or wants to fade Zach Wilson.

    Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 61% (123,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.

  • Raiders are 18-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005. ???
  • Raiders are 33-54 ATS after a win since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Jets -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Raiders 10
    Jets -1 +100 (4 Units) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$400
    Under 35.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Breece Hall over 63.5 rushing yards -115 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$175
    Player Prop: Jakobi Meyers under 43.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
    Raiders 16, Jets 12

    Denver Broncos (3-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)
    Line: Bills by 7.5. Total: 46.5.

    Tuesday, Nov. 14, 7:15 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, where tonight, the Buffalo Sabres host the Denver Nuggets. Guys, instead of talking about tonight’s game, what if we just show Eagles highlights instead? I don’t know if you knew this, but I’m a super fan of my Philadelphia Eagles. And according to super fan bylaws, we’re not allowed to care about any other team, including these dumb teams tonight. What do you think, Emmitt, highlights or no?

    Emmitt: Thanks, Setzer. I agree on you that we should do Highlights. This is my favorite magazine to read. I cannot understand what the alphabet on the page say, but Highlights have lots of pretty picture to look at, and as the ol’ saying go, “A picture is worth a thousand dollars.”

    Reilly: Emmitt, stop teasing me. Mother won’t let me read Highlights because she says they’re the devil. And speaking of the devil, girls used to be the devil according to Mother, but now she wants to impress her friends at the hair salon by showing them that I can date someone hotter and more famous than Taylor Swift. The announcers have scheduled another potential girlfriend for me, so let’s see who it is. The card here says that it’s someone named … Cheer? The only Cheer I know is Cheer Bear, who would be my favorite of the Care Bears if they weren’t the devil like Mother says.


    Tollefson: Ah, North Korea. What a great place. Guys, did you know that if you kidnap any women and they refuse to cook and clean naked for you, you can send these women to North Korea for a $5 rebate? I don’t know what they do to them there, but I imagine they really teach them how to cook and clean naked well for their man.

    Reilly: Wow, what a great place, hopefully Mother takes me there for family vacation there instead of Sesame Place this year. But Cher, I understand why you hate Donald Trump. He hurt a lot of people’s feelings on Twitter, so who cares if we had a great economy and no new wars under him? Feelings of adults mean more than anything. Tell them, John Festerman!

    John Fetterman: Why was six afraid of seven? Because 700. The rogue in the cemetery doesn’t want to be with the hunchback from the clocktower. It’s time we sanction East Korea. It’s time to remove sanctions from East Korea. I’ll take Notre Dame by 60 points. What a horrible night to have a curse!

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Cher, I know you are a gross, old woman, but you are a famous songstress, so maybe Mother will approve. Can I force you to be my girlfriend now?


    Reilly: Maybe we’ll take a family vacation together to North Korea and then Kuwait!

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, Kevin. Sources close to Kevin’s mother say that vacations to North Korea and Kuwait are out of consideration because foreign flights are the devil. And speaking of foreign flights, Kevin, I’m about to get on one to procure 716 dosages of North Korean Covid vaccines just to make sure I’m well protected. Back to you, Kevin.

    Reilly: So much for that vacation! Maybe Joe Bident will let us fly on Air Force One like Hunter did to conduct those deals overseas when he was vice president. President Bident, can we fly on Air Force One?

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you cheese curl-drinking spoony bard, everyone knows that private Air Force One flights are for the president and his girlfriends. I met a woman the other day when I was hard at work at Delaware beach. She was a school teacher, and I told her I was interested. She said you want me on Air Force One, and I said I want you on the Air Force One runway with some of your brightest and most attractive students. She said no, so I had secret service rough her up and convince her to bring some beauties to the runway, and I was sniffing in the mile high club heh heh heh but when we landed, my nemesis Count Chocula appeared and said nexnilerescent. I grabbed a chain to kill the roach, but I said I apologize for not apologizing so he said you apologize and I said I apologize and then I got back on the plane to go to the situation room because my bum bum got wet.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he apologized to Count Chocula which is a total lie and a total disgrace that Sleepy Joe would say that, but Sleepy Joe is a total disaster and a total disaster, I talked Count Chocula, great guy that Count Chocula, and he said, “President Trump, you’ve done the best job as president anyone has ever done or ever will do in their lives,” and I said, “No, no, I may have done the best job ever, but that doesn’t mean that no one else will do a better job in the future, frankly, because scientists could clone me and install me as president in the future, and the clone could be better, not necessarily, but maybe better,’ those scientists and their cloning, they’re always doing a great job of cloning, but imagine if I decided to be a scientists, do you think anyone would do a better job of cloning than me, probably not, but those scientists are doing great work, the best work, but Sleepy Joe doesn’t believe in science, he doesn’t believe in humanity even, because he’s sleepy, and all he does, frankly, is sleep.


    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! I’m about to seal the deal and make Cher my girlfriend! I’ll need to buy slight-blocking glasses so I don’t turn to stone, but I bet the ladies at the hair salon will be super jealous!


    Reilly: Wait a second, I’m just being used? You only want to be my girlfriend to impress your mama’s friends? I don’t want to be used. Tell her that I don’t want to be used, New Daddy!

    Jay Cutler: Who is this old lady, and why does she smell like melted plastic?

    Reilly: She was my almost girlfriend, but not anymore because she was making me feel used, New Daddy!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing used things, Kevin. Let’s begin with used clothes, Kevin. How about used cars, Kevin? Why don’t we get to used computers, Kevin? Don’t forget about used furniture, Kevin. What about used exercise equipment, Kevin? We can touch on used books, Kevin. And last but not least, used tissues, Kevin, which you used when thinking about Nick Foles, Kevin.


    BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s interesting how different these teams currently are compared to the early stages of the season. The Bills were an elite team back in Week 4, while the Broncos were fresh off their humiliating 70-20 defeat against the Dolphins. Denver was recognized as having the worst defense in the NFL, while Buffalo had a top-five stop unit.

    My, how the turntables have turned. The Bills are now ranked 30th in defensive EPA, thanks to the numerous injuries they’ve suffered. The Broncos, conversely, have improved greatly on this side of the ball. They now rank in the middle of the pack. They’ve improved as players have returned from injury and some communication issues were solved. They generate good pressure on the quarterback and clamp down on opposing receivers, so they can slow down the Bills enough aerially to give their offense a chance.

    The one spot in which the Broncos are still weaker defensively is versus the run. The Bills, however, aren’t built to exploit this liability, as their rushing attack is rather lackluster.

    DENVER OFFENSE: The Bills have defensive problems, as stated above, but it’s still staggering that their defensive ranking has plummeted to 30th. Obtaining Rasul Douglas via the trade deadline should help, but Buffalo is still missing so much personnel.

    The primary absent piece is Matt Milano, the Bills’ star linebacker. Buffalo is incapable of stopping the run or covering the middle of the field without Milano, so the Broncos will be able to establish Javonte Williams, who could be nearing the end of his pitch count.

    The Broncos will also be able to exploit the problems in Buffalo’s secondary. The Bills have had issues covering receivers, especially those out of the slot. This is where Jerry Jeudy is stationed, so Jeudy could have a great performance.

    RECAP: This spread looks like it was made in Week 4. Back then, the Broncos were +6.5 in Miami. The Bills were rated a couple of points ahead of the Dolphins, so you would have seen something like +7.5 for this matchup. Maybe +8.5 or +9 at the most.

    This line, however, isn’t nearly indicative of how these teams are performing. The Bills and Broncos are much closer to each other because of the injured Buffalo players and healthy Denver defenders. I personally made this line Buffalo -3.5, but if you think that’s crazy, the EPA numbers suggest Buffalo should be -3!

    Let’s take advantage of the sportsbooks not correctly adjusting. The sharps are doing so, as it seems like they’re finally right about the Broncos. This is a huge play for me, as we’re getting every major key number in an even matchup.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’ll have to see what the injury reports look like, but as of now, the sharps are betting the Broncos at the highest rate.

    SATURDAY NOTES: No Micah Hyde or Christian Benford for the Bills on top of their already-ravaged roster. I’d say the Broncos seem so easy, but we’ve been cursed.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may lock in the Broncos at +7 because it would suck to see this spread fall to +6.5.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I spent the entire night and morning looking over every single pick I’ve made this year, and I’ve come to a realization. I’m excited to implement it going forward, though we still need variance to go our way for a change. I still love Denver, though it seems as though we might get a viable +7.5 line at some point. The best +7.5 is for -119 vig at Bookmaker, which is not worth it. I’d need -115 to pull the trigger.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s still sharp money on the Broncos even though the line has risen to +7.5. The best line I see is +7.5 -105 at Bovada, followed by +7.5 -108 at Bookmaker. Let’s hope we can end this dreadful week on a high note. I liked Denver more than any other side this week, but who knows what that means anymore with our awful variance.

    PLAYER PROPS: I haven’t heard many talking about this, but Javonte Williams had his workload restriction lifted in his previous game. This bodes well for his over rushing yards prop. The best number is over 54.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

    The Bills just had a tough game against the Bengals. After this easy win, they get the Jets and Eagles.

    The Spread. Edge: Broncos. Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -9.

    Computer Model: Bills -3.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Sharps on the Broncos.

    Percentage of money on Denver: 58% (613,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

  • Russell Wilson is 33-15 ATS as an underdog.
  • Russell Wilson is 24-16 ATS in night games.
  • Josh Allen is 10-6 ATS off a loss since his second season.
  • Opening Line: Bills -8.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 17 mph.

  • Week 10 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Broncos 21
    Broncos +7.5 -105 (5 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$500
    Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Javonte Williams over 54.5 rushing yards -115 (1.5 Units) – BetMGM — Correct; +$150
    Broncos 24, Bills 22

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 10 – Early Games

    Panthers at Bears  |  Colts at Patriots  |  Texans at Bengals  |  Saints at Vikings  |  Packers at Steelers  |  Titans at Buccaneers  |  49ers at Jaguars  |  Browns at Ravens  | 

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