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Purdue (2-1) at Notre Dame (2-1)
Line: Notre Dame by 1.5.
Saturday, 3:30 ET
Notre Dame is getting too much respect with this line and it’s simply because the public saw them put up 35 points on Michigan in the box score, and it screws up the perception. I throw that game out the window completely. The Irish offense was pathetic; the only reason this team won that game is because Michigan fumbled four times and threw two interceptions. They got outplayed, but they lost. Jimmy Clausen threw for 7.0 YPA against San Diego State, and they ran the ball for 3.1 yards per carry. Purdue is going to put up points in this matchup and not turn the ball over more than twice. A consistent kicking game is vital for road teams to cover. Purdue kicker Chris Summers is 16-of-17 inside the 40 since 2007.
Prediction: Purdue 27, Notre Dame 20
Purdue +105 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200
Notre Dame 38, Purdue 21
Atkansas (2-1) at Texas (3-0)
Line: Texas by 27.5.
Saturday, 3:30 ET
Texas fans: I apologize. I greatly underestimated your team this season – at least against the spread. The Longhorns are destroying their opponents and now a team with no offense or confidence is coming into a hostile environment. What is Vegas thinking? Mack Brown is all about padding Colt McCoy’s stats, and you can expect no mercy toward a recruiting rival.
Prediction: Texas 52, Arkansas 9
Texas -27.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Texas 52, Arkansas 10
Western Kentucky (2-2) at Kentucky (3-0)
Line: Kentucky by 21.5.
Saturday, 7:00 ET
I’ve learned an important lesson from Walter: Study line movement vigorously. This line opened up at 22.5, but has fallen to 21 on a lot of sites despite 67 percent of the action going with the Wildcats. Quarterback Mike Hartline is not a big-play threat and won’t put up big numbers in the passing game, but he could be prone to turnovers against a WKU team that is playing in the game this season that will be their Super Bowl. Kentucky has a great defense, but I do respect the randomness of sports, and I think somehow WKU earns a lot of respect in the Bluegrass on Saturday. Trends are irrelevant in this game since Andre’ Woodson is gone.
Prediction: Kentucky 23, Western Kentucky 17
Western Kentucky +21.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Kentucky 41, Western Kentucky 3
Mississippi State (1-3) at LSU (3-0)
Line: LSU by 24.5.
Saturday, 7:30 ET
I really can’t believe this spread. The public thinks “SEC game should not equal a big spread,” but the math says otherwise. LSU has outscored Mississippi State 295-73 in the last seven contests! Also, gotta love that Vegas is so high on MSU. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Charles Scott is going to have a monstrous game. I expect Trinton Holliday to be huge on special teams. MSU will be lucky to score against this defense. LSU has a lot of confidence against their big win, and I’m not concerned they will overlook the Bulldogs because this coaching staff clearly has their number.
Prediction: LSU 45, Mississppi State 6
LSU -24.5 (3 Units – Pick of the Week) — Incorrect; -$330
LSU 34, Mississippi State 24
Alabama (4-0) at Georgia (4-0)
Line: Georgia by 7.
Saturday, 7:45 ET
There is nothing better in college football than two big SEC teams going at it under the Saturday Night Lights. The public is pounding the road dog pretty hard considering they are poing up against the No. 3 team in the country, with the Crimson Tide getting 56 percent of the action. Too bad the public doesn’t do their research. In 2007, John Parker Wilson completed 53 percent of his passes for 5.1 yards per attempt and had a 0-5 TD/INT ratio on the road. Against ranked opponents, he had a 2-6 TD/INT ratio. Georgia won’t be able to gain a lot of yardage, but their defense will generate turnovers and kill Wilson’s confidence in the pocket. Plus, the Bulldogs will be pumped wearing their black uniforms.
Prediction: Georgia 23, Alabama 13
Georgia -7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Alabama 41, Georgia 30
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