2009 Fantasy Football Mailbag Notes: Note that the e-mails I received have been italicized and left unedited. My responses follow them.
7/26/09
2009 Fantasy Football E-mails – Knowshon Moreno Love
You seem to be the highest on Knowshon Moreno out of anybody I’ve read. You were also higher than most on Calvin Johnson last year – could this be a repeat performance?
My Response:
We’ll see – but I don’t see how Knowshon can possibly disappoint (barring injury). He was drafted 12th overall, so it wouldn’t make sense for Josh McDaniels to use crap players like Correll Buckhalter or Lamont Jordan ahead of him.
Moreno will run behind a great offensive line. He also has the ability to catch the ball and block well, so he’ll be in on every down. Kyle Orton has a weak arm, so he’ll check down to Moreno early and often.
Unless he gets hurt, I think Moreno gets at least 1,500 total yards and 7-9 TDs… the upside is a Matt Forte-type year.
I have the second pick in a PPR draft. From talking to a lot of other owners I know WRs are gonna fly in this draft. By the time I pick in Round 2, I predict close to 10 WRs are going to be off the board.
So my question is do you think its worth it to take a WR like Andre Johnson or Larry Fitz at No. 2 considering I can still get a good RB in Round 2?? Because we start 3 WRs I would hate to have guys like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco as my top two WRs. But on the other hand I think I should just take Maurice Jones-Drew or Matt Forte since they are near locks for double-digit points per week. I have read lately though that Jones-Drew might not be getting as big of a workload as once expected. So I am in a tough spot with this pick.
My Response:
I would not take a receiver second-overall under any circumstances, and I’d draft Matt Forte instead. He’ll dominate for you in a PPR league.
At the end of Round 2, you can probably end up with Marques Colston and another top RB. That’s a pretty good core to have for your team.
So I really like the site… but finally got around to reading some of your 2008 potential busts.
How could you whif so bad on DeAngelo Williams? No better than Kevin Faulk? I’n not just playing Monday morning QB on this either – I took him w/ the fourth pick in the fifth round of my draft last year, and thought the Panthers were retarded for not playing him more in 2007, and he finished up 2007 very strongly (check game log – strange you’d have him labeled as such a bust.)
I must admit, you hit big with lost of your sleepers – Warner, Bryant, Slaton, etc…
My Response:
Right now, that DeAngelo Williams prediction looks dumb. But before the 2008 season, Williams barely touched the ball in Carolina… he couldn’t even beat out DeShaun Foster. John Fox used a first-round pick on Jonathan Stewart, and it looked as if Williams was destined to be a bust.
So yeah, I was off on that by a lot, and I’ll be off on someone this year. It’s impossible to bat 1.000.
1. What is the appropriate value of Ray Rice? 1st I heard that he would be getting most of the carries because Le’Ron McClain is moving to fullback, and then I hear from Cam Cameron’s interview that Le’Ron is a running back in his eyes, and that they will use him in many ways, including tight end. What is the final verdict?
2. Consider this when you have Steven Jackson ranked No. 8 or 9. He had the most yards per game played of any player in the NFL that wasn’t a quarterback last year. AND his offensive line is much better, and oh, yeah, he practically is his own backup, cause there isn’t another even half-way decent runner on the Rams roster. I know his injury history hurts his stock, but I don’t think it is out of the question to have him in the No. 5-7 range behind Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and LaDainian Tomlinson.
3. Steve Smith missed two games, which for whatever reason, I had completely forgot about. Project his 1,421 yards and 6 TDs over 14 games to a full season and you get an incredible 1,624 yards and a dissapointing 7 TDs. This, in my opinion puts him behind the top four elite WRs (Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson) and above the next tier of Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Roddy White, and Marques Colston (no particular order).
4. Chris “Beanie” Wells. He seems to be a lock to start over Tim Hightower from Day 1 and be successful, but I heard a report (which I can’t remember where from unfortunately) that Wells is behind Hightower on the depth chart, and struggling. Have you heard of this?
My Response:
I heard what Cam Cameron said about Le’Ron McClain not playing fullback. If he’s not moving to fullback, I don’t know who is. Cameron could be just saying this nonsense because stuff was leaked to the media. We’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen once the preseason rolls around, and I’ll definitely keep you updated on the site. For now, I have Rice ranked relatively high in my 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings, though McClain will probably get the goal-line touches in Baltimore.
I don’t have Jackson low because he’s not talented. I have him low because he always gets hurt, and I don’t think you can brush it off that easily. He gets injured every year it seems, so I wouldn’t want to deal with that. Caveat emptor.
I hear what you’re saying about Steve Smith, but everything went right for him last year. That doesn’t seem to happen in the NFL two years in a row. Delhomme, the offensive line, Smith himself – someone will get hurt. And the 7 TDs were not disappointing; Smith is too small to be an end-zone threat – Muhsin Muhammad saw more red-zone targets than Smith did in 2008 – so he’ll almost always have single-digit scores. Seven touchdowns is about right for a full year.
Wells is behind Hightower, like Moreno is behind Buckhalter, and Slaton was behind Ahman Green and Chris Brown last year. Wells and Moreno will win the starting jobs in training camp or preseason.
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