Draft Kings Locks and Values
Here’s the link to the FREE Entry to Draft Kings Team Pick’em Contest.
By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Posted Jan. 18, 2019.
Of course, “Locks” is a relative term and in this case, means that these plays are locks for my Draft Kings cash teams this week. These are plays I feel would be big disappointments if they didn’t pan out, whereas “Values” are plays that are riskier, but the price of the player makes the risk not as impactful due to the savings you get to upgrade to more consistent players, like the ones you’ll find in the “Locks” section!
Drew Brees, QB, Saints ($6,700)
I could easily make a case for every quarterback playing this weekend, and I probably will have GPP teams with led by all four, but you can’t beat a dome in January, meaning the Saints-Rams game will be pre-set at the perfect temperature and there will be no wind and no extra clothing to slow anybody down. That is why I prefer Brees in 50/50 games this weekend. We saw what he could do to the Rams’ defense last time around when he threw for 346 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in Week 9. The addition of Aqib Talib should help the Rams, but even with him back, they’ve had trouble against the pass.
Jared Goff, QB, Rams ($5,400)
Goff is the cheapest quarterback this weekend, and when he played in New Orleans in Week 9, he put up 391 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. That’s not a bad game for the cheapo of the group. This game has the highest over/under of the weekend, and if you want to win in DFS with just two games on the slate, you need to do your best to be contrarian. Goff might not be the most contrarian play, but I doubt he’ll have ownership numbers like Brees and Mahomes. With Goff’s upside, I’ll take the discount and the lower ownership, as I expect the Saints to lead in this game and Goff will need to throw the ball more than Sean McVay would like.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints ($6,500)
Kamara has tremendous upside, as you well know, and at home on the fast track, in the highest over/under game of the weekend, that upside is at its highest. He and Todd Gurley are without a doubt the strongest candidates for huge numbers at the running back position, which makes it tough to go away from both for the sake of low ownership. Playing both is of course a possibility, but if I’m picking one, it’s going to be Kamara at home at $1,000 less than Gurley.
James White, RB, Patriots ($5,400)
I like Kansas City in this matchup, so I’m going to lean toward White as the most effective back for New England, as he’ll be needed in the passing game, while Michel will lose work due to his team trailing. We know White is the preferred receiving back, as he went crazy with 15 receptions against the Chargers and could easily do the same against Kansas City’s weak pass defense against running backs.
Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs ($6,400)
This game is going to be cold. It’s not going to be as cold as forecasts believed a week out, but it will still be in the teens, and the Patriots will do their best to stop Patrick Mahomes’ splash plays. That should push Mahomes to target Williams more and Andy Reid to work the running game. Williams could easily put up good numbers in the receiving game, as the Patriots have slow linebackers and gave up 86 receptions for 777 yards and four touchdowns through the air to running backs.
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots ($6,600)
Edelman’s price isn’t crazy for his production of late, and I expect that production to continue this weekend. The Patriots’ offense at this point is Sony Michel on the ground and James White and Edelman through the air, as Rob Gronkowski has become mostly a blocker. There are openings for Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan, but they are not relied on like Edelman. He is possibly the safest play when considering price. Yes, Michael Thomas is a stud and if you can afford him, you have him on your team, but I do think he’ll have a harder time against Aqib Talib than he had against Marcus Peters, when he ate Peters’ lunch the last time around. Edelman is a core player at this price.
Ted Ginn Jr ($4,300) and Keith Kirkwood ($3,200), WRs, Saints
Ted Ginn Jr. is the preferred play to Kirkwood, but Kirkwood is firmly ahead of Tre’Quan Smith and makes for a good cost saver and contrarian play in tournaments. Kirkwood ran more routes than Ginn last week and gets a good matchup against Rams slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman, while Ginn just missed a big game last week due to an underthrown ball and was second on the team in targets. Both have appeal this weekend.
Brandin Cooks ($5,300) and Robert Woods ($5,700), WRs, Rams
I like both Cooks and Woods this week, as they both should find plenty of routes not against Marshon Lattimore, while Josh Reynolds will likely be lined up to occupy Lattimore. In a Rams stack, we will be banking on the Saints getting a lead and the Rams needing to throw the ball a lot. If the Rams were to get the run game going and take a lead, the Goff/Cooks/Woods stack would be null and void. I believe the Saints win this game in a high-scoring affair, so I feel good about the Rams stack and will lean that way in my GPP games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($7,100)
The Patriots have taken Kelce out of games in their recent matchups, but the last time they did that, Tyreek Hill scored three touchdowns. I expect they’ll spend fewer resources on Kelce this time around and he should be a useful play as usual. The problem this weekend is that there are very few tight end possibilities other than Kelce. The odds are that he ends up as the highest-scoring tight end this weekend, and it’s going to be a risk not to play him.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots ($4,100)
If Gronkowski’s price was anywhere near Kelce’s, he would be an easy fade, as is likely to be a blocker more than a receiver, but at $4,100, you can’t completely count him out, as Kansas City is weak against tight ends, giving up the most fantasy points to them this season. If this game turns into a shootout, Gronkowski will see more targets than he has, and if the ball is near him, there’s a good chance he catches it. Playing him is risky, but saving some cash on him while going in on Gurley, Kamara, Thomas and Hill, could pay off.
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