NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2025 – Late Games

Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 52.
Sunday, Jan. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an exchange I had with an evil person who wants innocent people to be in prison:



I used to wonder how the Holocaust and other atrocities started, and how there were people who followed oppressive government rule without question, but I don’t wonder about that anymore because of interactions with these people.

On a lighter note, here’s an interaction I had with another beta male simp for Mina “Geno Smith is a top 10 quarterback” Kimes:



And finally, I struck a nerve with someone in what I thought was a very nice reply to Barack Obama:



I can’t believe this person was so rude to me. Here I was, congratulating our former president and his husband, and yet this scumbag has the audacity to call me a “sack of s**t.” Unbelievable.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: There are multiple reasons why handicapping this game is very difficult. The primary reason is Josh Allen’s health. Allen had a foot injury in Week 17 that prevented him from running against the Eagles. Allen obviously has great arm talent, but he’s still a diminished player when he can’t use his legs. We saw that in the loss to Philadelphia, where a stationary Allen missed a wide-open receiver on what would have been the decisive two-point conversion.

Allen rested last week – aside from the ceremonial snap he took to keep his consecutive starts streak going – so there’s a good chance that the time off will have helped him heal. We don’t know if Allen is still hampered by his troublesome foot, however. Allen could make good use of his legs in this game because the Jaguars are below average when it comes to dealing with mobile quarterbacks.

Allen will have to do most of the work because Jacksonville has the third-ranked rush defense since the midway point of the season. Allen could still have some success if he can’t run, given that he’ll be able to attack Jacksonville’s defense with his tight ends. The Jaguars have the ninth-worst defense when it comes to defending the position.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Jaguars struggle against tight ends, the biggest defensive liability in this game should continue to be Buffalo’s run defense. Unless Matt Milano is suddenly healthy after nursing a bothersome injury all year, the Jaguars should be able to run on the Bills, who are second-to-last when it comes to defending ground attacks. Only the Giants are worse in that regard.

With Travis Etienne gashing Buffalo’s defense, Trevor Lawrence will be able to benefit with short-yardage opportunities. This will be crucial against the Bills, who have great edge-rushing talent. Lawrence is well protected, however, so Lawrence will have a chance in rare long-yardage situations.

The reason Lawrence has been so much better in the second half of the season is that Jakobi Meyers has given him a reliable weapon. Meyers isn’t the most physically gifted receiver in the world, but he’s extremely dependable and doesn’t make mistakes. Lawrence has never had anyone like Meyers in his career, so this new weapon, plus improved coaching, can explain why Lawrence is playing the best football of his pro career.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that Allen is completely healthy, and he’ll be able to run all over the Jaguars, I would still have a tough time handicapping this game. I would ultimately pick the Bills to cover because I think they’re a bit better overall if Allen is 100 percent, but I’m sure I’d change my mind once or twice during the week. I’ve fallen in love with this Jaguars team down the stretch. We’ve made so much money betting them because people don’t understand how much better they are now than they were to start the season. Both Lawrence and the defense have made huge strides since the overtime battle against the Raiders right after Halloween.

However, we don’t know if Allen is completely healthy. Perhaps we’ll learn something from the injury report, but I’m not sure if that will reveal anything. If Allen is limited all week, I think we can safely make a medium-sized play on the Jaguars, but Allen could just as easily be full all week and still hampered by his foot injury because NFL teams largely aren’t held accountable for lying on the injury report.

Given that, I’m going to side with the Jaguars for zero units right now. I’ll keep you updated if anything changes throughout the week, of course.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy mentioned this on the livestream…



…That we can bet this game smartly by doing it live. If we see Allen running to start the afternoon, we can bet the Bills. Conversely, if Allen isn’t moving around, we can bet on the Jaguars.

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Jan. 11, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Almost every square bettor I know was on the 49ers versus the Seahawks on Saturday night. Of those I spoke to since that game, they were all shocked that the 49ers couldn’t produce anything offensively. “This team never punted, and now they can’t score at all!? What happened!?” one person asked me even though I told them that backing San Francisco was a bad idea.

If you were similarly shocked by the result, well, first of all, welcome to the Web site because we had Seattle as a medium-sized play last week. And second, consider how the 49ers attained their distinction of having an unstoppable offense in the first place. They had the luxury of beating up on some horrible defenses. They crushed the Titans, Bears, and injury-ravaged Colts during their scoring spree. They also didn’t punt against the Browns because they had nothing but short fields off turnovers and special teams plays. ESPN will tell its audience cool-sounding facts like, “The 49ers haven’t punted in December!!!!” but it’s all misleading and most people don’t see that they’re being misled. This is how ESPN can get away with hiring unqualified people who tell their audience that Geno Smith is a top-10 quarterback.

At any rate, the 49ers couldn’t do anything offensively against Seattle’s stalwart defense. The Seahawks are first in defensive EPA, while the Eagles are third, and there’s a chance they could be higher if they had Jalen Carter available all year. Kyle Shanahan thrives against opponents that have a defensive weakness because he can scheme around it, but he won’t be able to do that in this contest. The Eagles will be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and smother San Francisco’s weapons.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The 49ers are also going to have major defensive problems in this game. In fact, if I were a 49er fan, I’d be way more worried about their defense than their offense, despite what I just wrote in the three previous paragraphs.

The 49ers can’t get to the quarterback whatsoever. It was very telling a few weeks ago when they played against the Titans. Cam Ward held on to the ball more than any other quarterback this season, and yet San Francisco didn’t log a single sack against him. The 49ers have the fifth-fewest quarterback pressures this season, and that figure includes the couple of games played with Nick Bosa to start the year. Bosa and the other injured defensive linemen will continue to be sorely missed in this game, as they won’t apply pressure on Jalen Hurts, especially if Lane Johnson returns to action.

Hurts will have enough time to torch San Francisco’s secondary. He’ll also be able to run on the 49ers, who surrender the 10th-most production to scrambling quarterbacks. Saquon Barkley also figures to do well, given what we saw from the two Seattle backs in the Week 18 contest.

RECAP: Following last Thursday’s livestream with Evan Daniel, which you can watch here…



…we locked in the Eagles -2.5 -105 for three units. I made note of this on Twitter as well, so I hope all of you saw it and bet it.

The thinking was that if the 49ers lost to the Seahawks, they’d look bad and thus would be lined worse against the Eagles. This turned to be right on the money, as the 49ers are now +4.5 instead of +2.5. As we mentioned on the show, this would offer a great middle/hedge opportunity.

After thinking about it, I think I’d rather double down on the Eagles. Of course, this means I regret not betting more than three units on the Eagles, but I still think they’re a safe play at -4.5. I made this line about -7, which might be a bit crazy, but I think it makes sense because I have the Eagles two tiers above the 49ers, who have a dreadful defense, an injured left tackle, and a misleading record that is the byproduct of what I said was the “easiest schedule I’ve ever seen in my life” prior to the season.

My plan at the beginning of the year was to bet the 49ers often against bad teams during the regular season and then fade them in the playoffs, so no, I’m not hedging or middling. I’m betting more on the Eagles.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson was limited in Wednesday’s practice. We’re expecting Johnson to return, so this was good news. If Johnson is out, however, I won’t be as bullish on the Eagles.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Wynter is Coming, where I discuss someone I met at a kids’ birthday party. She thought I was the funniest person in the history of the planet!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers handpicked their opponent. They had the option of trying to win to clinch the No. 6 seed, but they determined that battling the Jaguars would be too problematic for their injury-ravaged offensive line. The Jaguars destroyed the Chargers in a prior meeting this year, so you can understand the thought process behind this.

The Jaguars have the sixth-most quarterback pressures this year, but it’s not like the Patriots are slouches on this side of the ball. They’re a respectable 12th in quarterback pressures, so they’ll be able to get to Justin Herbert. The Chargers are playing with their fourth and fifth tackles, and then there’s Mekhi Becton, a guard who is so fat and out of shape that he needs breaks during the game. The Patriots were able to get Milton Williams back from injury last week, which will be huge for this matchup.

The Patriots also cover well on the back end, so even when Justin Herbert has time in the pocket, the Chargers won’t have a consistent offense. It must be noted that the Patriots are weaker to the run than the pass, so perhaps the Chargers can find something with Omarion Hampton. This, however, may not be possible because the Chargers don’t run block very well. They had the 11th-worst run blocking in the NFL this season.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Williams isn’t the only major player the Patriots welcomed back last week. Will Campbell also returned from injury. Campbell looked like he didn’t miss a beat with a terrific performance against the Dolphins.

I don’t need to tell you that Campbell’s presence against the Chargers is huge. The Chargers have some excellent edge rushers, including Khalil Mack, so missing a left tackle would be troublesome for a young quarterback making his first playoff start. Maye will be battling a defense that has surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, so he won’t be able to scramble as much as usual.

The Patriots won’t have too much success running the ball either. The Chargers were worse against the run to close out the season because Denzel Perryman was suspended, but Perryman will be available for this game. The Chargers have always been better versus the rush when Perryman has been on the field, so I wouldn’t expect Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson to have huge performances.

RECAP: There are three quarterbacks making their first playoff starts this season. There’s Bryce Young and Caleb Williams on Saturday, and we have Maye in this game.

Is there any significance to this? I’ll let you decide upon looking at this data. Here are the results of all first-time playoff quarterbacks, dating back to 2002, and I’m excluding instances where both quarterbacks are making their first playoff start:

Home Favorites:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Deshaun Watson (-2), HOU, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Lamar Jackson (-3), BAL, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mitchell Trubisky (-6.5), CHI, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Patrick Mahomes (-4.5), KC, 2018: Win ATS, Win SU
Jimmy Garoppolo (-6.5), SF, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU
Caleb Williams (-1), CHI, 2025: ??? ATS, ??? SU
Drake Maye (-3.5), NE, 2025: ??? ATS, ??? SU

Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Wentz (+2), PHI, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Taylor Heinicke (+10), WAS, 2020: Win ATS, Loss SU
C.J. Stroud (+2.5), HOU, 2023: Win ATS, Win SU
Bryce Young (+10), CAR, 2025: ??? ATS, ??? SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Sam Darnold (-2), MIN, 2024, Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU
Josh Allen (+3), BUF, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Tannehill (+4.5), TEN, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU
Baker Mayfield (+5.5), CLE, 2020: Win ATS, Win SU
Mac Jones (+4), NE, 2021: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Kyler Murray (+3.5), ARZ, 2021: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Skylar Thompson (+13.5), MIA, 2022: Win ATS, Loss SU
Daniel Jones (+3), NYG, 2022: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyler Huntley (+8.5), BAL, 2022: Win ATS, Loss SU
Tua Tagovailoa (+3.5), MIA, 2023, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mason Rudolph (+10), PIT, 2023, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jordan Love (+7.5), GB, 2023, Win ATS, Win SU
Bo Nix (+7.5), DEN, 2024, Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jayden Daniels (+3), WAS, 2024, Win ATS, Win SU

In summary:

Home favorites: 6-16 ATS, 9-13 SU
Home underdogs: 4-6 ATS, 3-7 SU
Road favorites: 1-3-1 ATS, 2-3 SU
Road underdogs: 13-15 ATS, 8-20 SU
Road Underdogs (7+): 5-7 ATS, 1-11 SU

Combined Record: 19-40-1 ATS, 19-41 SU

This is a grim projection for Maye, despite how great he’s been this year. Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Lamar Jackson all failed to cover as home favorites in their first playoff game as home favorites. Patrick Mahomes was able to do so, so perhaps Maye will be more like him. We’ll see.

It’s interesting that the straight-up record for these quarterbacks is much better than the ATS record when it comes to home favorites. This is an indication that Maye could win by three and fail to cover the -3.5.

That seems like the most likely result, anyway. The Patriots have feasted on so many bad teams this year. I don’t want to take anything away from them because they’ve dismantled most of their poor competition, but I’d like to point out that New England’s games against Group A and B teams this season have gone as such: win at Buffalo by 3, loss vs. Buffalo by 4, win at Baltimore by 4. It’s a small sample size, but all of these games are close, so I don’t see why the Patriots would reliably beat the Chargers by four or more points. They could, but given how great Herbert and the Chargers defense is, I’m willing to bet that this is a three-point game either way.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new concerning this game. I still like the Chargers at +3.5. I wonder if they’ll be bet down to +3 at some point.

Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 39.5.
Monday, Jan. 11, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, where the Poopsburgh Penguins take on the Houston Rockets. Guys, corporate told me that I’d finally cover the Pennsylvania team I always dreamed of covering, so I naturally thought we’d be deployed to Philadelphia, the greatest city known to mankind as my Philadelphia Eagles take on the San Francisco Giants, who are gay butt pirates, but because we’re not covering my Philadelphia Eagles, let’s discuss my new girlfriend, who responded to me in the Yellow Pages. I haven’t met her yet, but she says she already loves me because we’re soul mates and that she loves my soul.

Emmitt: Thanks, Saul. I must raise a suspicious to anybody who using the Yellow Page. Do the Yellow Page becomed Yellow for the same reason white snow becomed yellow snow when you go pee-pee on itselves? This why when I try to find the telephonic number of somebody I tries to call, I use White Page instead of Yellow Page because maybe somebody have White Page and then go pee-pee on itselves.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, that’s ridiculous. No one pees on random books, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: I dunno, I pee on your stuff all the time because it’s hilarious.

Kevin Reilly: Oh, so that’s why my pillow is wet all the time when I go to bed. I thought it was from night sweats I had from nightmares of my Philadelphia Eagles losing, but then I realize that this is stupid because my Philadelphia Eagles would never lose! Anyway, my girlfriend’s mother is sick, so my girlfriend asked me for some money. I told her that I already used my entire annual salary on Nick Foles bobbleheads but I could ask my friends for money to send to her. Tolly, can I borrow $5,000 to send to my girlfriend’s mother?

Tollefson: Kevin, I say this as a guy you recognize as your friend: No. This is a scam. Believe me, I’m the master of running scams. I scammed old people out of six figures, so no one is a better scam artist than me. And I don’t know why you’re so attached to this one lass anyway. Just go to a bar, find a woman, any woman, and then slip something into her drink. Then, she’s yours for life unless she cleans and cooks naked poorly, and then you can just bop her over the head with a shovel and bury her in the woods.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I don’t think Mother would allow me to go to the woods by myself because I could get eaten by a bear or get stung by a bee. Clarissa Thomas, do you think you could loan me $5,000 to send to my girlfriend so she can help her mother?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mother. I have breaking news to report for you. The 49ers will be starting their sixth-round pick, Brock Pigeon, for the first time in this game. Back to you, Mother.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, why did you call me your mother? Do you think I’m actually your mother? Is that how disinterested you are in hearing about my girlfriend? Won’t anyone give me $5,000 to send to my girlfriend so she can help her ill grandma? What about you, Minnow Klein?

Mina Kimes: Does anyone find this absolutely ridiculous? Kevin, why are you asking us if we can loan you money to help your girlfriend’s sick mother? I think we can all agree that the real reason why Kevin’s girlfriend’s mother is sick is because she’s oppressed by the patriarchy. If it weren’t for men, Kevin’s girlfriend’s mother would be in good health. And yet, she’s not even an Asian female NFL analyst, who are the sickest human beings on Earth because we’re all oppressed by the men in our industry. If your girlfriend were an Asian female NFL analyst, her mother would be dead already! What we need to do is make sure that Kevin’s girlfriend’s dad is sick instead of his mother!

Kevin Reilly: He’s sick, too, but she’s only asking $2,000 for him.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID KEVIN’S GIRLFRIEND’S DAD ONLY COMMAND $2,000 INSTEAD OF $5,000 FOR THE MOTHER BECAUSE HE THINKS HE’S BETTER THAN ALL WOMEN AND BELIEVES THAT HE DOESN’T NEED AS MUCH MONEY TO BE CURED!?

Kevin Reilly: Wait, sorry, I meant $20,000. Not $2,000.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID KEVIN’S GIRLFRIEND’S DAD COMMAND $20,000 INSTEAD OF $5,000 BECAUSE MEN LIKE TO OPPRESS WOMEN AND DEMAND FOR MORE MONEY NOT JUST IN WORK, BUT FOR MEDICAL CARE, TOO!?

Kevin Reilly: You know, my girlfriend says she watches our broadcast and said that this Sarah Spanish girl has a mental illness, but I didn’t know what she meant until now.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about mental illnesses, Kevin. Let’s discuss different types of mental illnesses, Kevin. We can begin with anxiety disorders, Kevin. Or its cousin, panic disorder, Kevin, or perhaps obsessive-compulsive disorder, Kevin. Now we’ll transition to depression, Kevin. Adjacently, there’s bipolar disorder, Kevin. What are your thoughts on eating disorders, Kevin? Care to share about personality disorders, Kevin? Do we dare delve into transgenderism, Kevin? Let’s debate about post-traumatic stress disorder, Kevin. We’ll now target psychotic disorders, Kevin, which includes schizophrenia, Kevin. And last but not least, Kevin, there’s Kevin Reilly Disorder, Kevin, which is the worst, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: I’LL GIVE YOU A DISORDER, CHARLES DAVIS, WHICH INCLUDES BOPPING YOU ON THE HEAD WITH TOLLY’S SHOVEL AND THEN BURYING YOU IN THE WOODS IF MOTHER FINALLY SAYS IT’S OK TO GO TO THE WOODS ALONE! We’ll be back right after this!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I wish I had known that the Texans weren’t going to take Week 18 seriously until the day of the game. It was announced Sunday morning that Nico Collins wouldn’t play. C.J. Stroud and the rest of the starters sat the entire second half. We nailed the Stroud under props, but at my cost of not winning any money in the final Supercontest mini-contest.

Stroud, Collins, and everyone else will obviously be back on the field versus the Steelers, and they’ll be rested. However, this won’t mean all that much if Houston’s offensive line can’t protect Stroud. The Texans have gotten better in pass protection during the second half of the season, but the tackles have a tall task ahead of them when it comes to blocking T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Pittsburgh’s other pass rushers. Watt returned last week, and while he played fewer snaps as usual, he was effective. He’ll be even healthier in his second game back from injury, so he and the other edge players will create some problems for Stroud.

It would help Stroud if he had a strong rushing attack to keep the pass rush honest. The problem is that Woody Marks, while more explosive than Nick Chubb, is not the difference maker someone like Derrick Henry is. The Steelers, ranked 20th against the run, clamped down on Henry in the second half of the Week 18 game. Granted, they sold out against the run, but they won’t have to dedicate as many resources to stopping Marks.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Watt’s return in Week 18 was colossal. DK Metcalf’s availability for this contest is similar in scope. Metcalf was sorely missed in the loss to the Browns. The Steelers obviously didn’t need him in the finale once Kyle Hamilton suffered an injury, but his presence will absolutely be required against Houston’s stalwart defense.

The Texans have some excellent cornerbacks, so they shouldn’t have much of a problem keeping Metcalf from having a huge game. Metcalf will at least be able to stretch the field, which will open things up for everyone else. For example, Pat Freiermuth and the other tight ends could do well, as Houston is only ranked in the middle of the pack at defending the position.

Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, will continue to target Kenneth Gainwell often. He won’t really have a choice. Houston’s pass rush is every bit as good as Pittsburgh’s, if not better, so Rodgers will be constantly under siege if he holds on to the ball too long. Rodgers will know this, so he’ll quickly dump off passes to Gainwell and his tight ends.

RECAP: The Texans are a better team than the Steelers, but I don’t think they’re worthy of being 3.5-point road favorites in this matchup. The Steelers have some ways to attack the Texans, whether it’s with their edge rush defensively, or via their tight ends offensively.

Besides, the Steelers often thrive in this scenario. Say what you want about Mike Tomlin, but he gets his team to play well when they’re home underdogs. Unless he’s battling a far superior opponent, Tomlin can win these sort of games, and the numbers speak for themselves. Tomlin is 68-39 against the spread as an underdog in his career, and he’s 10-2 against the spread as a home dog of more than three points. The Ravens and Texans are similar in overall team talent, and we just saw Pittsburgh defeat Baltimore despite not having Metcalf.

I think this will be a three-point game either way, so we’re getting the win with the Steelers either way. I like Pittsburgh a good deal at +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Steelers down to +3, though there’s always a chance this was phantom line movement because what the pros really wanted was Houston -3, or even -2.5. We’ll find out soon enough.