NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2023 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$120)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2023): 7-8-1 (-$800)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2023): 8-8 (-$320)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2023): 4-2 (+$1,155)
2023 NFL Picks: 141-137-10 (-$6,580)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 20, 12:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 20 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called ESPN Bet Commercial where I make fun of the ESPN Bet commercial.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Anyone tuning into the Buccaneers for the first time this season must have thought that this was a reincarnated unit of the late 90s and early 2000s. Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks and John Lynch headlined a defense that carried a Brad Johnson-led offense to a Super Bowl victory during the 2002 season, and what this version of the Buccaneers did to the Eagles mirrored that.

However, that was more of the Eagles being incompetent than anything. The Buccaneers have some major liabilities on this side of the ball. They’ve been very weak to slot receivers this year, which presents a huge problem versus Detroit because that’s where Amon-Ra St. Brown operates. The Buccaneers are also incredibly poor versus tight ends. Sam LaPorta will be healthier this week, so he’ll be able to dominate this matchup.

The Buccaneers’ defensive strength can be used to counter something the Lions love to do, and that’s running the ball. However, the Rams were also stout versus the run, yet Jared Goff torched them last week. It’s also worth noting that while Goff isn’t great versus the blitz, he’s not inept against it either. This is crucial to note, given how unprepared Jalen Hurts was against Tampa’s blitz-heavy attack last week.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers don’t have multiple edges to exploit on offense, but there is one that must be discussed. The Lions are very weak to outside receivers, which seems like a problem against Mike Evans. However, there’s a chance the Buccaneers won’t be able to take advantage of this liability because Evans was got banged up against the Eagles and may not be 100 percent on a short week.

Evans’ production has dropped off during the latter portion of the season anyway, as Chris Godwin has picked up the slack. Godwin doesn’t have as great of a matchup in this contest, but it’s still a positive one. The same can be said of Cade Otton, but it’s impossible to trust him. I also don’t trust Baker Mayfield’s protection against Detroit’s pass rush. The Lions are capable of generating good pressure, while Mayfield took some bad sacks this past Monday night.

The Lions are also excellent versus the run, so don’t expect much from Rachaad White on the ground. White could get some production as a receiver out of the backfield, but the Lions are in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending pass-catching running backs.

RECAP: Last week, I wrote that I was looking forward to betting against the winner of the Eagles-Buccaneers game. I was hoping it would be the Eagles because we’d get a softer line than if Tampa Bay prevailed. The Buccaneers won, but did so very convincingly. This makes them an even better fade.

If you’ve been paying attention, you know how lucky the Buccaneers have been this year. They were outplayed by the Panthers twice and the Falcons twice. The Saints crushed them in the second meeting. They were able to beat New Orleans the first time because Derek Carr was coming off a shoulder injury and couldn’t throw downfield. The Buccaneers got the Bears when Chicago was missing multiple offensive linemen and its top cornerback. I can go on and on. The Buccaneers are a five- or six-win team that lucked its way to a divisional-round appearance, so let’s take advantage of this by fading them.

I was hoping to get a better number than -6.5, and even -6, which was the opening line. However, this spread is high for a reason, and that would be that the sportsbooks want to make it very uncomfortable for people to bet the Lions. I personally think this spread should be as high as -9.5, so I have no problem making this my highest-bet game of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m kicking myself right now. I said on the After Dark Show that I wanted to lock in -6 -112 at Bookmaker. I completely forgot about it, and now the best line is -6 -117 at Bookmaker. I think we might get something better than that.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have been on both sides of this game, with the Buccaneers recently getting hammered down to +6. I’m now wondering if a -5.5 is possible.

PLAYER PROPS: First of all, Amon-Ra St. Brown over receiving yards. I’d be shocked if he didn’t have a monster game in this matchup. The best number is over 91.5 -113 at FanDuel. Meanwhile, I don’t see the Buccaneers being able to run very much against Detroit’s pass-funnel defense. I like Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans over passing and receiving yards, respectively. The best number for Mayfield is over 260.5 -113 at FanDuel, while the best bet for Evans is over 72.5 -113 at FanDuel. And finally, I like Rachaad White under 55.5 rushing yards versus the No. 1 run defense. The best number is under 55.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay all four props. This pays +793 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN & NEXT WEEK BET: Two things: First, I’m locking in the Lions -5.5 -113 at Bookmaker. Perhaps this line will keep dropping, but if it goes back to -6, I’ll feel bad about missing out on the -5.5. Second, I can’t believe it, but Lions +7 at 49ers is available at FanDuel. That spread is ridiculously high. The metrics say it should be -3 at most, and I think Detroit matches up very well with the 49ers. If the Lions don’t beat the Buccaneers, this will be no action, but I wanted to get on the +7 before the Lions potentially blow out Tampa. I’m locking this in for five units, and I may add more after Sunday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in Lions -5.5 -113 last night because the -5.5s are gone. In fact, I don’t see any -6 -110s, as the sharp money has come in on Detroit throughout the day. The best line I see is -6 -111 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: .

Computer Model: Lions -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharp action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (786,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 133-92 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharp action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (786,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 133-92 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Buffalo, where tonight, oh who am I kidding? My Philadelphia Eagles lost, and I can’t even claim that the officials cheated us out of a win because we were so terrible against the Tampa Gay Butt F**kaneers. Nick Sirianni completely disgraced by team, and I hope he dies in a pool of sharks and spikes and lava and comets and rabid dogs and wolves and fire and porcupines and death.

Emmitt: Thanks, Draco. I am also depress. My Dallas Cowboys losted to the Green Bay Fudge Packer. I thought the Cowboy was going to winned the Super Game this week, but God have other plan. It was like when the flood coming but Moses Malone make sure he not die in the flood by putting two of every animal at the zoo on his boat.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m pretty sure that was Noah, and I know that because I just scored a 95 on Mother’s quiz in our home schooling class.

Tollefson: A 95? Thank goodness because I copied off your quiz. Your mom said I couldn’t kidnap and enslave women if I scored below 75, so there was a lot on the line for me.

Reilly: Tolly, for the last time, can you stop making me jealous by saying that you kidnap and enslave women? It’s not fair that you get to have all the fun. I wish I could tie up my girlfriend and force her to watch my Philadelphia Eagles with me, but Nick Sirianni ruined everything. I haven’t even been able to talk to women until this year because they were the devil, but Mother changed her mind when the women at the hair salon said her dreamboat little boy couldn’t date a singer hotter than Taylor Swift, and she said I could. So, we’re still interviewing women I can force into being my girlfriend, so it looks like we have someone named Megan the Stallion. Ha-ha guys, very funny that you’re trying to ship a guy with a horse. Way to kick someone when they’re down.

Megan the Stallion: No, Kevin, I’m a real person. I’m a pretty girl and I want to make love to you all night long and have your babies.

Reilly: What the…? Megan the Stallion is a real girl, and she wants to be my girlfriend? This is too good to be true. Now, for the real test: What are your thoughts about my Philadelphia Eagles?

Megan the Stallion: My Philadelphia Eagles are amazing. I love them more than anything else in the world, except you, Kevin Reilly, my sweet.

Reilly: Oh my God, guys, this is finally happening! Senator President John Feasterman, I’m going to have a girlfriend who loves my Philadelphia Eagles as much as I do!

John Fetterman: I love peanut butter. I always have peanut butter. I like to stick my hands in my bum bum and out comes the peanut butter, ha ha! One scoop, two scoop, fire scoop, pool party ha ha! You have to wait five hours after a meal before swimming, or you’ll get sunburn.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! I- wait a second, we’re getting buzzed by Charissa Thompson, who has this sideline report for us. Charissa?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Kevin. I’m reporting that Nick Sirianni has gone missing. Sources say that a temporal worm has manifested itself into our dimensional plane and has begun consuming matter. Nick Sirianni was one of the first things to be eaten. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: You know what? Good. I hope Nick Sirianni has been eaten by that worm and is gone forever!

Megan the Stallion: Kevin, I think we should give Nick Sirianni a second chance.

Reilly: You do?

Megan the Stallion: Yes. He’s a great coach for our Philadelphia Eagles. Maybe the best coaching option anyone could ever find. He’s so great with his coaching decisions that are always great.

Reilly: Huh. Here I thought I wanted Nick Sirianni to die in a pit of lava and porcupines, but now my beautiful singer girlfriend wants him to keep his job. What do you think President Biden? You’re the expert at winning because all of your votes were completely legitimate, especially all the ones that were delivered in the middle of the night to make sure you just had enough in the key swing states.

Joe Biden: Now look here, you grape-wearing porcupine hunter, this reminds me of a time when I was dating a girl who didn’t want me to take a job. I was running for the senate a few years ago against George Trump, and she said, “Joe, pwease don’t take the job, if you become pwesident you’re not going to have time for me anymore.” This was little Sally, who was a little old for my taste at five years old, but I gave her hair an ol’ sniff, as I usually do, and I told her, “Hey Susan, I’m going to take the job because I need the power and I want to defeat George Trump because he’s not starting enough wars to keep the ol’ overseas war machine going, and we need to profit off young people dying in senseless wars, but I promise I’ll have time for you, Sandra.” But little did Svetlana know that I was dating a hot piece on the side, little Jillian, who just got accepted to daycare and as I always say, if she’s old enough to pee, she’s good enough for me, heh heh heh.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that if she’s old enough to pee, she’s good enough for me, but there were no pee tapes of me, Sleepy Joe, especially Russian pee tapes, Sleepy Joe, but if there were Russian pee tapes of Trump, let’s face it, they would be the best pee tapes anyone has ever seen, frankly, and no one would have seen anything like it, and it made me wonder if I should make pee tapes of my own because the Russian pee tapes were fake news, the fakest fake news anyone has ever seen, especially eraser head Nick Sirianni, what a total disgrace and a total loser, the biggest loser anyone has ever seen, except for Sleepy Joe, who is such a big loser that even the biggest loser – great show, by the way, one of the best shows anyone has ever seen, but let’s face it, it would have been better if I were on, but they didn’t invite Trump, which was a big mistake on their part, and they are a bunch of total losers, but I would love to be on the show, and frankly, I’d be good at it, and probably the best, frankly – would think that Sleepy Joe is the biggliest loser anyone has ever seen.

Wolfley: DONALD, THE BEST SHOW ON MY HOME PLANET IS THE BIGGEST WEIGHT MAINTAINER. LAST YEAR’S COMPETITION WAS WON BY A PILLOW WITH THREE EYEBALLS FOR LEGS.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Megan the Stallion, I thought about what you said, and I’m not sure I can accept Nick Sirianni as a good coach.

Megan the Stallion: But please, Nick Sirianni is so great! Did you see that decision he had to kick a field goal to trim the margin from 16 to 13? Who else could have come up with that?

Reilly: But that was dumb. Even WalterFootball made a joke about it on Twitter. Not that I’m allowed on Twitter because Twitter is the devil, but…

Megan the Stallion: WalterFootball is an idiot! He didn’t even pick me, I mean Nick Sirianni as Coach of the Year!

Reilly: New Daddy, what do you think?

Jay Cutler: I don’t really care, but if I was paid to care, I’d probably go with what that Sirianni guy is saying.

Reilly: What Sirianni guy?

Jay Cutler: Ugh, you’re making me have two lines? The one you’ve been talking to. The dude with the wig, who is obviously a dude because he still has his beard stubble.

Reilly: Wait, Megan the Stallion was Nick Sirianni the whole time!?

Nick Sirianni: And I would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for you meddling Jay Cutlers! Fine, I was hoping to win over the Eagles’ greatest superfan to keep my job next year. Hmph!

Reilly: Screw you, Nick Sirianni! Now I definitely want you to die in a pit of lava and porcupines. I can’t believe I was deceived by an imposter!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about imposters, Kevin, which is a show on Netflix, Kevin. Let’s talk about the characters from Imposters, Kevin. Let’s begin with Ezra Bloom, Kevin. Then we get to Maddie, Kevin. Maddie really fooled Ezra, Kevin. Then there’s Julia Langmore, Kevin. She was also duped by Maddie, Kevin. How about Richard, Kevin? Guess what, Kevin? That’s right, Kevin. Richard was also fooled by Maddie, Kevin. Noticing a theme here, Kevin? Why don’t we get to Max, Kevin? Then there’s Lenny Cohen, Kevin. Don’t forget about Shelly Cohen, Kevin. Why don’t we delve into Patrick, Kevin? So many people fooled, Kevin, but not anyone nearly as much as Kevin, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO PERSONALLY THROW YOU INTO THE PIT OF LAVA, SHARKS, AND PORCUPINES! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Chiefs offense because of all the injuries the Bills suffered against the Steelers. Already missing some key players, Buffalo lost Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, Rasul Douglas, and Christian Benford. By the end of the game, the defense was so overmatched that it appeared as though Mason Rudolph would be able to lead the Steelers to a comeback victory.

If Rudolph could perform well in the second half, Patrick Mahomes should have success in this game. I wrote “should” instead of “will” because it’s not quite a given. Mahomes has endured his worst season as a pro because the players around him have all been terrible. His receivers have dropped countless passes or run poor routes. His blocking is also not ideal, which could come into play in this game. The Bills can still generate lots of pressure, which will disrupt some drives.

However, the Chiefs still stand a good chance of moving the chains because of Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Pacheco has a nice matchup against a mildly weak run defense. Buffalo held up well against the Pittsburgh backs because it didn’t have to respect Rudolph’s throwing ability very much. That won’t be the case with Mahomes under center. Meanwhile, Rice has a phenomenal matchup, as the Bills have surrendered the seventh-most production to slot receivers this year.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills were able to execute a great offensive game plan against the Chiefs in their first meeting. They were able to utilize James Cook extremely effectively as both a runner and a receiver. He rushed for 58 yards on just 10 carries, and he did most of his damage through the air, catching five balls for 83 receiving yards and a touchdown.

It was surprising to see Cook have so much success because the Chiefs generally defend receiving backs very well. They just put the clamps on De’Von Achane, so perhaps they’ll have better luck against Cook this time. The Chiefs are also near the top when it comes to defending No. 1 receivers and tight ends, so Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid can be held in check as well.

The Chiefs are at their weakest on this side of the ball when it comes to defending No. 2 receivers. Gabe Davis’ status will be crucial for that reason. Khalil Shakir has been a solid replacement, but Davis offers game-breaking ability the Bills won’t have outside of Diggs if Davis is sidelined again.

RECAP: This is the toughest game to handicap at the moment because it’s unclear if the injured Bills will be able to play in this game. If we get a mixed bag, it’ll still be a very tough game to predict because the Chiefs are an overrated team that should be faded in the playoffs, but can’t really be at the moment because Buffalo could be extremely short-handed. Also, the Bills are coming off two fewer days of rest, which has to be a disadvantage against Andy Reid.

This is very frustrating because I wanted to fade the Chiefs-Dolphins winner, but Buffalo’s myriad of injuries and rest disadvantage makes that very difficult. I’ll have interest in the Bills if they get most of their injured players back into the lineup, so it’ll be crucial to monitor the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was most fearful of a mixed bag for the Buffalo defense. It’s early in the week, but Rasul Douglas and Tyrel Dodson were limited in Wednesday’s practice, while Terrel Bernard and Christian Benford were DNPs. It’ll be crucial to see how this plays out in the coming days.

SATURDAY NOTES: Of the four injured Bills defender, we’ve gotten a mixed bag. Tyrel Dodson will play, as he has no injury designation. Rasul Douglas is questionable, but was full in Friday’s practice. Conversely, Christian Benford is out, while Terrel Bernard is questionable after being DNP all week. This is what I feared, as the Bills’ injury woes are bad enough to be skeptical of them, but not bad enough to fade them. I think the right play here is to tease the Chiefs up to 8.5 with the Lions PK.

PLAYER PROPS: Once again, mobile quarterbacks run more in the playoffs, so I’ll bet their rushing yards unless the game projects to be completely lopsided. I like both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over. The best numbers for those, respectively, are over 26.5 -113 at FanDuel and over 42.5 -115 at Caesars. Meanwhile, I am fading Stefon Diggs, who has struggled lately. The Chiefs are terrific against No. 1 receivers, so they should be able to limit him. The best number is under 62.5 -110 at BetMGM. Conversely, Rashee Rice has been hot, and he has a great matchup. The best number is over 69.5 receiving yards at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: As with the first game, I will be parlaying all four props. This pays +1065 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buffalo inactives don’t look too bad. Terrel Bernard is out, but the other two questionable players – Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson – will both play, as will Tyrel Dodson, who got hurt last week. The sharps haven’t come in on this game, but I’m willing to bet a unit on the Bills. The best line is -2.5 -109 at Bookmaker, followed by -2.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: .

Computer Model: Bills -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (702,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 82-24 SU, 57-48 ATS (45-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 18 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (702,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 82-24 SU, 57-48 ATS (45-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 18 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.