2023 NFL Offseason: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts (Last Year: 4-12-1)

2023 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Gardner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie, WR Breshad Perriman, TE Pharaoh Brown, DE Samson Ebukam, K Matt Gay.
Early Draft Picks:
QB Anthony Richardson, CB Julius Brents, WR Josh Downs, OT Blake Freeland, DE Ade Adebawore, CB Darius Rush, S Daniel Scott, TE Will Mallory, RB Evan Hull. Colts Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Matt Ryan, WR Parris Campbell, OT Dennis Kelly, OT Matt Pryor, DE Yannick Ngakoue, LB Bobby Okereke, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Brandon Facyson, S Rodney McLeod, K Chase McLaughlin, P Matt Haack.

2023 Indianapolis Colts Offense:
Indianapolis’ plan to cycle through veteran quarterbacks has finally come to an end. After failing with Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, the Colts realized that they had to obtain a long-term answer at the position. This led to their decision to draft Anthony Richardson No. 4 overall. Richardson is a raw prospect, but has a huge arm and great mobility. He sprinted a 4.4 at the combine, which is just as fast as Justin Fields can run. Thus, Richardson will have a high floor because he’ll be able to blow by the opposition whenever he escapes the pocket, much like Fields did last year.

In the meantime, however, Gardner Minshew figures to start until Richardson is ready. Minshew has proven to be a capable backup in his time in Jacksonville and Philadelphia. He’ll also be able to lean on a potent rushing attack, as Jonathan Taylor looks to rebound from a down 2022 campaign. Taylor got off to a strong start last year with a 161-yard performance versus Houston, but injured his ankle three weeks later. Taylor battled through the ankle injury, but wasn’t as effective as he usually is. He ultimately missed the final four games. Taylor will be 100 percent to begin the 2023 season, so he’s likely to thrive once again.

That said, Taylor shouldn’t be expected to reach 1,800 rushing yards like he did in 2021 because the offensive line isn’t as dominant as it once was. The unit still has some stellar players like Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith. Nelson is arguably the best guard in the NFL, while Smith has emerged as a terrific right tackle. Ryan Kelly once could have been mentioned in that pantheon, but the 30-year-old center has regressed in recent seasons. Kelly is coming off two poor years, so there was speculation that the Colts could trade or cut him.

The other two spots on the blocking unit are occupied by Bernhard Raimann and Will Fries. Raimann was a pleasant surprise as a third-round rookie last year, though Fries was a liability.

The offensive line should do a decent job overall of blocking for either Richardson or Minshew, giving them enough time to connect with their receivers. Michael Pittman Jr. will reprise his role as the top wideout on the team after hauling in 99 passes for 925 yards last year despite playing with some dreadful quarterbacks. Second-year Alec Pierce should have a larger role after an inconsistent rookie campaign in which he showed some flashes. Isaiah McKenzie was signed to be the third receiver, replacing Parris Campbell. McKenzie is as mediocre as they come, but he’s not a poor tertiary option. There’s also athletic tight end Jelani Woods, who looked dominant on a couple of occasions as a rookie. Woods is raw, but has immense upside.

2023 Indianapolis Colts Defense:
Indianapolis’ greatest “addition” this offseason is a great player who wasn’t available to them last year. That would be Shaq Leonard. The Pro Bowl linebacker was barely on the field this past season, starting only three games. Leonard is one of the best off-ball linebackers in the NFL when healthy, so his presence will be a huge boost to the defense. He’ll play in a linebacking corps with Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed.

Leonard’s return from injury will make up for the departure of fellow linebacker Bobby Okereke, though his exit pales in comparison to Stephon Gilmore’s absence. Gilmore has been a stellar cornerback over the years, but the Colts traded him to the Cowboys. With Gilmore gone, second-round rookie Julius Brents will be forced into action. He’ll start across from Isaiah Rodgers, who has developed well since being a sixth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Kenny Moore will be stationed in the slot. Moore usually plays well, but is coming off a down year.

Indianapolis’ safety situation is a mixed bag as well. Julian Blackmon is a solid player who missed some time in 2022. He’ll start next to Rodney Thomas unless Nick Cross can emerge into the lineup. Thomas is a pedestrian player, while Cross is a third-round pick from the 2022 NFL Draft with some upside.

Given the status and youth of the secondary, the Colts’ pass rush will have to perform better than it did last year when it ranked in the middle of the pack in pressure rate. The problem is that Yannick Ngakoue is gone after recording 9.5 sacks last season. Samson Ebukam, who notched five sacks in 2022 as a rotational player for the 49ers, figures to replace Ngakoue. Ebukam will have a larger role this year across from Kwity Paye, who will be seeking to improve upon his six sacks last season. While Paye’s pass-rushing ability must get better, he’s stellar in support of the run.

If Paye can make it to the next level, the Colts will sport one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. DeForest Buckner is an elite defensive tackle, while Grover Stewart has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years.

2023 Indianapolis Colts Schedule and Intangibles:
The Colts have a new kicker. That would be Matt Gay, who signed a colossal contract this offseason. Gay was a near-perect 28-of-30 for the Rams last year. He went 7-of-9 from 50-plus.

Rigoberto Sanchez finished in the top five of net punting average in 2021, but couldn’t play last year because of a torn Achilles.

Indianapolis has a couple of tough opponents on the schedule, but it generally has an easy slate to navigate through overall. The Colts battle teams in the AFC South, NFC South, and the Raiders.

2023 Indianapolis Colts Rookies:
Go here for the Colts Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2023 Indianapolis Colts Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2023 Indianapolis Colts Analysis: The Colts have begun their rebuilding process by drafting Anthony Richardson No. 4 overall. They have some talent, however, as they boast a strong running game, a talent-laden defensive line, and one of the best linebackers in the NFL. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Colts maintained something close to a .500 record, but it’s more likely that they will win five or six games.

Projection: 6-11 (Tied 2nd in AFC South)

2022 Projection: 10-7. 2022 Actual Result: 4-12-1.
2021 Projection: 10-7. 2021 Actual Result: 9-8.
2020 Projection: 13-3. 2020 Actual Result: 11-5.
2019 Projection: 7-9. 2019 Actual Result: 7-9.
2018 Projection: 6-10. 2018 Actual Result: 10-6.
2017 Projection: 6-10. 2017 Actual Result: 4-12.
2016 Projection: 12-4. 2016 Actual Result: 8-8.

NFL Draft Team Grade: A Grade

Goals Entering the 2023 NFL Draft: Thanks to Houston’s incompetence, the Colts suddenly have a chance to land C.J. Stroud at No. 4. Once they secure their new franchise quarterback, they’ll have to add better protection for him. They’ll also need to fix some holes in their defense, which was 28th against the run and 23rd versus the pass last year.

2023 NFL Draft Accomplishments: The Colts had 12 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Their first seven selections scored an A- or higher. Some of the highlights include a franchise quarterback at No. 4; a talented cornerback obtained after trading down twice to open the second round; a receiver pegged in the second round obtained at No. 79; and a mega value in Ade Adebawore at No. 110.

All of these selections not only provided great value; they also filled major needs, including a potential franchise left tackle. Thus, the Colts did an amazing job of strengthening their roster in the 2023 NFL Draft. They deserve an “A” grade.

Obviously, if people aren’t as high on Anthony Richardson, they wouldn’t grade Indianapolis so favorably. What must be considered, however, is that after 2010, teams can freely take gambles on quarterbacks in the opening round. This is what the Cardinals did with Josh Rosen, selecting him No. 10 overall a year before drafting Kyler Murray. This could have a similar outcome, but Richardson has far more upside than Rosen. He also possesses a higher floor because he runs a 4.4 just like Justin Fields, so he’ll be able to pick up tons of rushing yardage at the very least.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

4. Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida – A- Grade
Many had Will Levis mocked to the Colts, but Charlie Campbell reported that Indianapolis wasn’t really interested. Anthony Richardson is a better fit for the Colts’ offense. He also has a higher floor because of his Justin Fields-type rushing ability. The Colts had to draft a franchise quarterback, and Richardson is a far superior choice compared to Levis.

44. Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State – A- Grade
The Colts traded away Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys, so cornerback was an obvious need. Julius Brents is a huge cornerback (6-3) who had plenty of fans during the pre-draft process. I like that Indianapolis traded down twice to acquire him.

79. Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina – A Grade
The Colts lost Parris Campbell, so it makes sense that they’d go after a slot receiver. He’s a talented player who easily could have gone off the board a round earlier than this. I’m a big fan of this selection.

106. Blake Freeland, OT, BYU – A Grade
The Colts’ offensive line is not what it once was. Their blocking was poor at times last year, so offensive line help was needed with Anthony Richardson now under center. Blake Freeland is a very athletic tackle with tons of upside. He could have easily gone a round earlier than this.

110. Ade Adebawore, DE/DT, Northwestern – A+ Grade
The Colts are having a great start to Day 3. Ade Adebawore is a highly athletic defensive lineman who could have easily gone early on Day 2. He’ll help with the pass rush to combat Trevor Lawrence.

138. Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina – A+ Grade
I love this pick. The Colts really needed another cornerback, and Darius Rush provides great value as a prospect I had in my third round. He’s a big and fast cornerback with plenty of potential.

158. Daniel Scott, S, California – A- Grade
Daniel Scott is an athletic player with good size, but the production didn’t match at California. Perhaps the Colts can get him to live up to his potential. I like the value for Scott, whom I had in the fourth round.

162. Will Mallory, TE, Miami – C Grade
It makes sense that the Colts would add a tight end to provide competition at the position. Will Mallory is a gifted athlete, but disappointed during his time in Miami. Perhaps the Colts can coach him up.

176. Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern – B- Grade
I don’t think the Colts really needed another running back, but Evan Hull is a solid prospect at this spot of the draft. He’s a tough runner who will give maximum effort. Perhaps he’ll be able to emerge as a No. 2 back one day.

211. Titus Leo, DE/OLB, Wagner – B- Grade
Titus Leo has potential as an athletic pass rusher. Obviously, the competition at Wagner wasn’t the best, so he’ll need to prove that he belongs in the NFL.

221. Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M – A+ Grade
Jaylon Jones is an instinctive cornerback with good speed and athleticism. He also provides major value for a Colts team that really needed cornerback help. I had Jones in the third round, so I love this value.

236. Jake Witt, OT, Northern Michigan – B Grade
Jake Witt was drawing some late interest as a final-round pick, so I’m not surprised to see him be drafted at this spot. Jake Witt is a lengthy and athletic lineman, but needs to get much stronger for the pros.

Season Summary:
It’s no surprise that the Colts failed with yet another washed-up veteran quarterback. They’ve progressively gotten worse going from Philip Rivers, to Carson Wentz, and then to Matt Ryan. Perhaps they’ll change their strategy and draft one of the blue-chip quarterbacks this April.

Offseason Moves:

Colts sign WR Breshad Perriman

Colts sign WR Isaiah McKenzie

Colts sign QB Gardner Minshew

Colts sign DE Samson Ebukam

Cowboys acquire CB Stephon Gilmore from Colts for draft pick

Colts sign K Matt Gay

Team Needs:

Quarterback: It’s time for the Colts to stop taking shots at washed-up veteran quarterbacks. They could trade up for No. 1 to take the franchise signal-caller they want. Signed Gardner Minshew
Offensive Tackle: Just as the Colts have had problems replacing Andrew Luck, they’ve also failed to find someone to take over for Anthony Castonzo. A franchise left tackle is needed to protect the next quarterback.
Guard: Another offensive line upgrade is needed in the interior to really fix the blocking problems.
Cornerback: The Colts’ biggest need on defense is the secondary, which includes cornerback across from Stephon Gilmore. It’s also worrying that Gilmore will turn 33 soon.
Safety: Safety is a problem as well, especially with Rodney McLeod hitting free agency.
Defensive End: Indianapolis is just mediocre when it comes to getting to the quarterback. Signed Samson Ebukam
Wide Receiver: The Colts could stand to add another receiver to pair with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. Signed Isaiah McKenzie
Two Linebackers: Shaq Leonard will return from injury, but the Colts may lose Bobby Okereke and E.J. Speed to free agency.
Kicker: Chase McLaughlin had a solid year, but he’s due to hit the open market. Signed Matt Gay
Punter: Matt Haack is also set to enter free agency.

Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

2023 NFL Free Agent Signings:

Matt Gay, K, Rams. Age: 29.
Signed with Colts (4 years, $22.5 million)

Not much went right for the Rams in 2022, but Matt Gay’s kicking was an exception. Gay went 28-of-30, including 7-of-9 from 50-plus.
Samson Ebukam, DE/OLB, 49ers. Age: 28.
Signed with Colts (3 years)

Samson Ebukam is a solid rotational edge rusher who has notched 18.5 sacks in the past four seasons.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Eagles. Age: 27.
Signed with Colts (1 year, $3.5 million)

Gardner Minshew is a premium backup who has proven that he can hold down the fort as a low-end starter in the NFL.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Bills. Age: 28. — Signed with Colts
Taven Bryan, DE/DT, Browns. Age: 27. — Signed with Colts (1 year)
Breshad Perriman, WR, Buccaneers. Age: 29. — Signed with Colts

Indianapolis Colts Free Agents:

Salary Cap: TBA.

Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Colts. Age: 28.
Yannick Ngakoue wasn’t quite himself last year because he was dealing with an injury, but he still logged 9.5 sacks.
Rodney McLeod, S, Colts. Age: 33.
Signed with Browns

Rodney McLeod is coming off a great year after some injury-plagued seasons. He could continue to perform on a high note, but his age (33) is becoming a concern.
Bobby Okereke, LB, Colts. Age: 27.
Signed with Giants (4 years, $40 million)

Bobby Okereke is coming off his best season, thriving most when it came to defending the run.
Chase McLaughlin, K, Colts. Age: 27.
Signed with Buccaneers

Chase McLaughlin bounced around the NFL prior to 2022. He finally found his way, going 30-of-36. Amazingly, he hit nine field goals from 50-plus.
Parris Campbell, WR, Colts. Age: 26. — Signed with Giants
Dennis Kelly, OT, Colts. Age: 33.
Matt Pryor, OT, Colts. Age: 28. — Signed with 49ers
Matt Haack, P, Colts. Age: 29.
Brandon Facyson, CB, Colts. Age: 28. — Signed with Raiders
Matt Ryan, QB, Colts. Age: 38.
Ben Banogu, DE, Colts. Age: 27.
Byron Cowart, DT, Colts. Age: 27. — Signed with Texans
Nick Foles, QB, Colts. Age: 34.