Houston Texans Rookies Forecast

By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell





Solid Starter

Will Anderson, OLB, Alabama – Round 1
Texans general manager Nick Caserio made a terrible trade and gave up way too much to move up 10 spots for Anderson. I like Anderson as a player, but Cesario gave up the 12th-overall pick, the 33rd-overall pick, and the Texans’ 2024 first-round pick. Houston could have had players like a sturdy defensive end in Lukas Van Ness, a dynamic speed rusher in Will McDonald, or a No. 1 wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who would also have continuity with his quarterback. At pick No. 33, Houston could have had excellent tight end prospects like Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, or a dynamic safety/corner in Brian Branch, or more quality defensive line prospects. The Texans 2024 first-rounder will probably be a high first-rounder, and that pick could have been used on potential excellent talents like Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or Florida State defensive end Jared Verse. Giving up a talented combination of three good starters like McDonald, LaPorta, and Harrison Jr. for one good starter in return in Will Anderson was a terrible value for Houston.

That being said, Anderson is a safe pick to be a good starter. Anderson was a productive pass rusher in college who has excellent instincts. With his functional strength and sufficient speed, Anderson is capable of getting upfield and shedding blocks to get after quarterbacks. On top of being a good rusher, Anderson is a tough run defender. He should be a solid and well-rounded starter as a pro.

Team sources called Anderson was a good prospect, but said he did not have overwhelming size or speed like a Myles Garrett or one of the Bosa brothers. Hence, they think Anderson will be a good pro, but not a prolific one. While Houston gave up way too much for Anderson, he is a safe pick to be a solid starter.

2022: Kenyon Green, G
2021: Brevin Jordan, TE
2020: Ross Blacklock, DT
2019: Max Scharping, OT
2018: Martinas Rankin, OT
2017: Zach Cunningham, LB
2016: Nick Martin, C
2015: Bernardrick McKinney, LB
2014: Louis Nix, DT
2013: DeAndre Hopkins, WR



Most Likely To Bust

Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston – Round 3
The Texans reached on Dell early in the third round with the 69th-overall pick. While he was very productive in college, Dell is extremely undersized for the NFL at only 5-foot-8, 165 pounds. Other teams had Dell graded on Day 3 of the draft because they think he will struggle to stay on the field in the NFL. Even if Dell stays healthy, at his size, he will have a hard time getting off jams along with not getting rerouted. Dell does not have the skill set to be am NFL starter and is more of a No. 3 or 4 receiver. That is a poor value for a high third-round pick, and Houston’s weak roster needs more than gimmick backups. It would not surprise me if Dell ends up being a disappointment as a top-70 selection.

2022: Jalen Pitre, S
2021: Davis Mills, QB
2020: Charlie Heck, OT
2019: Lonnie Johnson, CB
2018: Keke Coutee, WR
2017: Julie’n Davenport, OT
2016: Braxton Miller, WR
2015: Jaelen Strong, WR
2014: Xavier Su’a-Filo, G
2013: Sam Montgomery, DE



Potential Boom Pick

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State – Round 1
The Texans were in dire need of a franchise quarterback, and they made a wise selection with Stroud in the second round. ESPN’s Adam Schefter, among others, had reported that Houston did not like Stroud, but those reports proved to be inaccurate and the Texans snatched up Stroud to be their quarterback of the future.

The most important trait for any NFL quarterback is accuracy, which Stroud has. He shows very good precision with his ball placement, leading his receivers to make receptions and hitting them on the run to produce big gains after the catch. Stroud will drop passes into some tight windows and beat defenses with his ability to thread a needle. While Stroud could stand to put more air underneath passes at times, Stroud throws a very catchable ball for his wideouts in general.

Mentally, Stroud is advanced and flashes some anticipatory throws. He has room for growth, but the potential is there. Stroud is very composed in the pocket and stands tall. He does not get rattled by the rush. With defenders bearing down on him, Stroud keeps his eyes downfield and will step into a hit to complete the throw to his receiver.

Stroud has some functional mobility, and he will use his feet to buy time. While Stroud is not a statue in the pocket, he is not a dangerous running threat. After escaping pressure, Stroud keeps his eyes downfield and looks to get rid of the ball while not showing any fear of getting hit. He is not inclined to run a lot, and in the NFL, he could help himself to be a little more aggressive on third-and-manageable to pick up first downs with his feet when nothing is open.

The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Stroud can really spin it with his powerful arm, and has pocket presence, size and accuracy. He could be a boom pick for the Texans and give them a true franchise quarterback.

2022: Derek Stingley
2021: None
2020: Jon Greenard, DE
2019: Tytus Howard, OT
2018: Justin Reid, S
2017: Deshaun Watson, QB
2016: Will Fuller, WR
2015: Kevin Johnson, CB
2014: Jadeveon Clowney, DE
2013: D.J. Swearinger, S



Future Depth Player

Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Alabama – Round 5
The Texans have not had good linebacker play since their combination of Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham were playing well a few years ago. To’oTo’o might surpass the expectations of a fifth-rounder. He is instinctive, quick, and capable in pass coverage. However, To’oTo’o is undersized and struggles with physicality. Hence, he might be a good backup linebacker and special teams player for Houston.

2022: Dameon Pierce, RB
2021: Nico Collins, WR
2020: Isaiah Coulter, WR
2019: Kahale Warring, TE
2018: Jordan Aikens, TE
2017: Carlos Watkins, DT
2016: Tyler Ervin, RB
2015: Reshard Cliet, LB
2014: Andre Hal, S
2013: David Quessenberry, OL





Walt’s 2023 NFL Draft Grades:

2. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans – A+ Grade
Stock down to everyone who derailed the projection for this pick, but bravo to the Texans for actually making the right move. It appeared as though Houston was going to be the laughing stock of the NFL for passing on a franchise quarterback and handing him to one of their divisional rivals, but that’s apparently not the case. The Texans stole C.J. Stroud away from either the Colts or Titans.


3. Will Anderson, DE, Alabama – A+ Grade
Nick Caserio is not a sleeper agent for the Colts or Titans. If he pretended to be, then he double-crossed them! The Texans traded up from No. 12 to 3 to land what they think is the best defensive player in this class, and they could be correct. Will Anderson would have been a poor choice at No. 2 because that would have involved passing on a franchise quarterback, but getting Anderson and Stroud is unbelievable. Caserio for general manager of the year?


62. Juice Scruggs, C, Penn State – C- Grade
The Texans had to move up for a center and not a receiver? Really? Juice Scruggs isn’t even a great value here. I think he’s a solid prospect and fills a need, but I don’t get why Houston gave up a resource for him.


69. Tank Dell, WR, Houston – MILLEN I WANTED A HOOKER WITH A KIELBASA Grade
Tank Dell is built like anything but a tank. He’s very skinny, and he’s someone I had in the middle of the third day. Why the Texans traded up for him, I have absolutely no idea.


109. Dylan Horton, DE/OLB, TCU – B Grade
Dylan Horton had a great season last year as a dynamic pass rusher for TCU. The Texans needed someone to get after the quarterback, and Horton fits the range. This is a fine pick for a team that needed to revamp its defense.


167. Henry To’o To’o, LB, Alabama – A+ Grade
I can’t believe Henry To’o To’o lasted this long. He’s a very instinctive linebacker I had in the second or third round in my mocks. He fills a need and provides amazing value. I love this pick.


201. Jarrett Patterson, C, Notre Dame – A+ Grade
I had Jarrett Patterson in the third round, as he never surrendered a sack during his collegiate career. I don’t understand why he fell so far, but the Texans will benefit from the drop by filling a position of need.


205. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State – A Grade
Xavier Hutchinson didn’t have a great pre-draft process, which caused him to drop into the sixth round. He’s still a quality route runner with solid hands, so he should have been chosen earlier than this. The receiver-starved Texans are getting a promising player.


248. Brandon Hill, S, Pittsburgh – C+ Grade
Brandon Hill is an undersized safety who struggles to tackle. I didn’t think he would be drafted, but we’re entering UDFA territory anyway.


2023 NFL Draft Team Grade: A-. Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.

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