2024 NFL Picks – Week 22: Chiefs at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 21 Analysis: We won five units with the Eagles, but we missed out on a huge week. We nearly hit an 11-leg mega parlay, but lost only because the Travis Kelce receiving yards leg didn’t hit. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Eagles, 5 units (win): I wrote ahead of this game that it was a simple handicap. My only worry was Jalen Hurts’ injury, but that turned out to be a non-factor. I tried to middle with the Redskins +10.5 because the Eagles had two centers who were injured, but that turned out to be a mistake.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

People like Pennypacker are the worst people in America. I don’t understand how someone like him can just bend the knee and plead, “Govern me more, daddy.” This idiot probably has no idea how are tax dollars are wasted by our bloated government. After all, he’s still dumb enough to believe that getting an “education” at a university is a net positive. What a clown. I’m also willing to bet that he’s gotten the Covid shot and at least four boosters. He’s the perfect boot licker.

Speaking of boot lickers:

I found not one, but two imbeciles who still don’t understand that Covid was a lab leak. Smart people knew this 4-and-a-half years ago, yet these two bozos still somehow haven’t figured that out yet. How sad is that?

Speaking of stupid people, Roger Goodell foolishly said he wouldn’t be reversing his nonsense DEI policies. Goodell is known to be the dumbest commissioner in major (and probably minor) sports history, so this isn’t a surprise. The message hasn’t reached this guy:

Poor Billy Wires. He probably goes to bed in tears. How dare that meanie Twump hurt his feewings?

And finally, here’s a moron whose name is Headmoral Believes BLM, so you automatically know that he’s a dumb person:

BLM is just a front for communism, and all the things that this idiot labeled me as in his initial reply are all not nearly as bad as communist.

And yes, I lied. I don’t hope that he makes a quick recovery. Communist scum don’t deserve such sympathy.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Toilet Nametag. I got another tooth extracted, and mayhem ensued.

This week on FOX, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New Orleans, home of the Mardi Grass, and host of Super Bowl LIX! Tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Royals. Guys, is this great or what? For the entire year, the head honchos prevented me from broadcasting Eagles games, and I told you that I would convince them. Now, as it turns out, I was the head honcho all along! I got to broadcast my Philadelphia Eagles on the biggest stage. Some people are saying I can’t be unbiased, but I’m the most unbiased announcer there is. After all, how can anyone beat my Philadelphia Eagles!? Even the Royals can’t do it because they are loosers and they suck compared to my Philadelphia Eagles!

Emmitt: Thanks, Zeromus. I think you mist used the word loosers. Looser mean the opposite of tightnesser, so what you mean to say are the word loser, which are a word that meaned guy who lossed, and is the opposite of the word winnered. The different between these two word are one alphabet. In looser he have three o’s, and in loser, he do not haved any o’s.

Reilly: Emmitt, are you seriously correcting me on my grammar right now? If Mother hears this, she’ll flunk me in grammar! I can’t repeat grammar class in Mother’s home school!

Tollefson: Reilly, don’t feel bad. I often forget the difference between loser and looser. This is why I recommend kidnapping a school teacher to be one of your female cleaning and cooking slaves. But I’m not just talking about any school teacher, mind you. I’m not some sort of monster. The key is going after the hottest and youngest school teachers out there because they make for the best cleaning and cooking slaves. Imagine how harmful it would be for my eyes if I made some old lady geezer teacher cook and clean naked for me. Oh, the humanity!

Reilly: Tolly, I’m glad to hear that you won’t be using Mother as a cooking and cleaning slave. Speaking of cooking and cleaning slaves, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’m reporting first that members of the Chiefs coaching staff have orally pleasured the officials and will be getting calls their way once again. And yes, I reported this last week, but I’m such a great reporter that I can recycle stories I’ve used already. Anyhoo, we’re once again joined by Donald Trump. Donald, I thought we interviewed you twice already.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, that is fake news, you interviewed me once as President of the United States, and once as President of Orangeland, which is formerly Greenland, but now it’s Orangeland because Orangeland is a much better name than Greenland, and orange is a much better color than green, which is obvious now, but no one could believe it when I changed the name, they said, “President Trump, how on Earth did you come with the best new name for a country anyone has ever heard, it’s such a bigly improvement,” this is what someone said to me, word for word, and I said that I’m the best at picking names for people and countries, it’s an amazing talent, unlike anything anyone has ever seen, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, frankly, and now I’m here as the President of Canada and Mexico because I now own them through my amazing tariffs, the best tariffs anyone has ever seen, because we’re generating billions and billions of dollars, unlike Sleepy Joe, who generated billions and billions of nothing because all he did was sleep on the beach the entire time he was president, it was a total disgrace, unlike anything anyone has ever seen.

Charissa Thompson: I can’t wait to go to the beach, too. That’s what you were talking about, right? Trips to the beach?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, I was not talking about trips to the beach, that’s what Sleepy Joe did all the time, but not me, I work harder than any other president in U.S. history, no one has ever seen anything like it, I even had time to play 72 holes of golf the other day, the fake news media, the ones with the cameras there, look at them turning off the lights on the camera, they are a total disgrace and a total disaster, did you see their low ratings, a video about grass growing is getting better ratings than those total losers, but someone who isn’t a total loser on the golf course is Trump, have you seen how many holes-in-one Trump had playing 72 holes of golf on Sunday, he had billions and billions of holes-in-one, billions and billions of holes-in-one, no one had ever seen anything like it, but I’m here today to discuss that any country outside of the United States of America, except for the ones I now control, will face 719-percent tariffs, and that will totally bankrupt the country biglier than anyone has ever seen, and these loser countries can’t afford it, believe me, I know what everyone can afford, and these countries can’t afford football games, which will only be played in the United States of America. Make. Football. American. Again.

Reilly: Donld Trump, now that I have control of televising games involving my Philadelphia Eagles games, I’m going to make sure that all football games take place in Philadelphia, the greatest city in the world.

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. I have been unburdened by what has been, and I will be unburdened by what will be, and what has always been unburdened, and what will also be unburdened in an alternate timeline of unburdening, and the schrodinger’s unburderning of unburdening. Second, you can’t fall too far from the coconut tree, hahahahahahahaha. And third, my oh my, I was under the impression that Trump was powerful, but I see you, Kevin Reilly, you were begging for the Eagles to be in the big game all year, and you made it happen. Kevin, I want you to ravage my body like no one has ever done since Willie Brown. I need to move up the corporate ladder and become the vice president of this TV network.

Joy Taylor: Get out of my way, Kamala! I’m younger than you, and I have bigger boobs. There’s no way his majesty Kevin Reilly would want to sleep with you over me. Kevin, let’s get out of here. I will do unspeakable things to you so I may become princess of this TV network.

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. When I was growing up in this middle-class family, I had to walk to school uphill both ways, and there were these gangs, and the gang leader asked me for my lunch money, and I said, “You may never take my fweedom.” I said freedom with a “W” instead of an “R” because I was not fully an adult yet, and I couldn’t pronounce the letter “R” HAHAHAHAHAHA. Kevin, I have so many stories like this to tell you while we lay in bed together after a night that you’ll never forget.

Joy Taylor: Shut up, tramp, you’re so old that you’ll need a walker just to get to the hotel room. Kevin, you should be with me. When I’m done with you, you won’t even know what your name is. And thus will begin my reign was queen of the TV network.

Wolfley: KEVIN REILLY, I MUST URGE YOU TO AVOID THESE HARLOTS. YOU ARE STILL A YOUNG MAN. YOU CAN FIND YOURSELF A NICE WOMAN, PERHAPS ONE WITH LEMONADE BOTTLES FOR HANDS AND RED FOOTBALL FOR FEET.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, I really need your advice. From New Daddy to son, please tell me what you would do if you were in my shoes.

Jay Cutler: I dunno, I don’t care enough. But I have this note here from your mom. I’d read it, but I want to take a nap.

Reilly: OK what does this say … “Poopykins, I’ve been warned of the harlots in the booth with you. That is why I have enlisted your personal hero to help thwart their advances. Look at the door now, and you’ll see your hero.” Wait, who’s at the … WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW!

Nick Foles: Hi, I’m Nick Foles, former quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m here to make a special little guy’s dream come true.

Reilly: OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG ME ME ME ME ME, IT’S ME! NICK FOLES, I LOVE YOU! CAN I HAVE YOUR AUTOGRAPH!?!?!?!?

Nick Foles: I guess, but where’s the little kid whose dream would come true if-

Kamala Harris: Excuse me, Nick Foles, when I grew up in a middle-class family, I watched you win the Super Bowl for these Eagles, and I always knew that you and I would make a good match. I’ll let you have your way with me, and then I will become the vice president of football!

Joy Taylor: Get out of my way, Kamala! I’m younger than you, and I have bigger boobs. There’s no way the great Nick Foles would want to sleep with you over me. Nick, I will blow your brains out tonight, and then I will become the princess of football.

Nick Foles: Well, I don’t see any kids here, so let’s go, ladies. Let’s have some fun tonight.

Reilly: NO, DON’T GO, NICK FOLES! I LOVE YOU! PLEASE HAVE ME INSTEAD!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re upset that a hero of yours abandoned you, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other heroes who would gladly abandon you for a pair of hoes, Kevin. Let’s begin with-

Reilly: NO! NOT NOW! F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I’M GOING TO GET REVENGE ON EVERYONE FOR NICK FOLES NOT HANGING OUT WITH ME! I SWEAR, YOU WILL FEEL MY WRATH! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I’d like to begin on this side of the ball because that is where we can find the biggest mismatch in this game. That would be the Philadelphia pass rush versus the Chiefs’ beleaguered tackles.

It’s no secret that Kansas City has struggled to block on the edge all year. This was a huge problem against the Texans, which is why Kansas City struggled to move the ball, tallying just 212 net yards of offense in that game. Sure, the Chiefs lost about 30 yards or so on the final drive when they took an intentional safety, but they still wouldn’t have generated 250 net yards of offense. As a reference, the Texans, who had just one viable receiver and had to rely on some bum named J. Wayne, accumulated 336 net yards of offense.

Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter were just too much for the Kansas City tackles to handle. Those tackles were given a reprieve in the AFC Championship because the Bills didn’t provide much edge pressure. That won’t be the case in this game, as Philadelphia is great at hunting the quarterback. There’s even a chance Brandon Graham will return from a long injury hiatus. The Eagles will win the matchups on the edge quite easily unless the Chiefs once again move All-Pro guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle. If they decide to do that, however, Jalen Carter will have a much easier matchup in the interior. The Chiefs are, to quote a Hall of Fame running back, stuck between a rock and a rocky place.

Despite this, I don’t think Patrick Mahomes will be shut out. It would be foolish to believe this. Besides, Mahomes has an edge he can exploit as well, which would be Travis Kelce against Philadelphia’s defense, which has been weak to tight ends this entire playoff run. Kelce did nothing in the AFC Championship, but he’ll rebound with what should be an explosive performance.

Mahomes and Kelce will have to carry the team, as Kansas City won’t get anything out of its rushing attack. The Eagles are No. 1 versus the run and will be able to put the clamps on Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles also have a big matchup edge on this side of the ball. If you guessed that would be Saquon Barkley, you would be correct. Barkley has been the best offensive player in the NFL this year in both the regular season and the playoffs. He ripped through the Packer, Ram and Redskin defenses, and he’ll do the same to the Chiefs.

Kansas City has struggled against the run in the playoffs. It began with Joe Mixon, who rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on just 18 carries in the divisional round. James Cook was even better. He was three yards shy of Mixon’s mark, but was given five fewer attempts. Neither Mixon nor Cook were able to operate much with the lead, but there’s a good chance the Eagles will be able to do so. Regardless, Barkley will be getting 25-plus carries in this game, so he’ll be able to greatly exceed the rushing totals that Mixon and Cook generated.

The Chiefs can’t really focus on Barkley because they’ll be beaten downfield by Philadelphia’s talented receiving duo, as well as Dallas Goedert. Of the three, Goedert has the best matchup. While the Eagles have struggled against tight ends recently, the Chiefs have been far worse all season. In fact, no NFL team has been worse against tight ends this year, and that dates back to Week 1 when Isaiah Likely had a huge performance against Kansas City.

Of course, the Chiefs will also have to worry about Hurts’ mobility. Hurts had an injury question mark heading into the NFC Championship, but he turned out to be just fine. He’ll be even healthier with two weeks off. Kansas City has issues defending mobile quarterbacks, so Hurts will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

My only worry with Philadelphia’s offense is that both centers, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens, are nursing injuries. Jurgens was able to close out the game two weeks ago, but we’ll have to see how the two linemen progress through this week’s practices.

RECAP: I’d say I don’t understand why the Chiefs are favored, but I do. They are the two-time defending champs. They have Mahomes and Andy Reid. They have just one real loss on the year. And they get all the calls. Of course, they’re favored.

And yet, they’re not the better team. The Eagles are superior in almost every way. Going position by position, Philadelphia is either equal or better everywhere, save for two spots: quarterback and head coach. Those two areas obviously matter more than most, but not when it comes to Super Bowl history.

Check out this list. Since 2000, here are how the superior quarterbacks have fared in every Super Bowl:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS

2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS

2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)

2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS

2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)

2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS

2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS

2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)

2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS

2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS

2020 – Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2021 – (Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow considered even)

2022 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: Win SU, Win ATS

2023 – Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy: Win SU, Win ATS

In short, the superior quarterbacks are 9-11 straight up and 7-13 against the spread. I hate trends and will never base one of my picks on one, but the purpose of this is to demonstrate that it’s not a fool-proof plan to just select the better quarterback in a matchup, particularly if it’s the Super Bowl. There’s way more to football than that, and the Eagles have the more talented roster. They also have the two huge matchup edges in this game, with their pass rush against a pair of poor tackles, and Barkley going up against a struggling run defense.

I’m picking the Eagles to win the Super Bowl. I think they will win a close game, but if it’s a blowout like Tampa Bay over Kansas City, that would not shock me either. That game also featured the NFC team being able to demolish Kansas City’s poor blocking. Granted, the Chiefs are far better in the interior now than they were back then, but they still have some major liabilities in that regard.

SUPER BOWL BET HEDGE: I already bet the Eagles to win the Super Bowl back last spring, per my NFL Futures page. I officially have two units on them at 17/1 odds, which allows me to collect 34 units. I also made a third bet on them at 15/1 while I was in Las Vegas when I matched my dad’s wager, though I didn’t document that bet on the site.

Given that I have so much equity in the Eagles already, it would be foolish for me not to hedge or middle with the Chiefs, even if I think Philadelphia will win. Thus, I will be betting the Chiefs +3.5 at -200 vig or so, hoping that Philadelphia prevails by 1-3 points so I can win both wagers. My plan is to bet three or four units on this and then perhaps add more via in-game betting. I will post those in-game bets on this page.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite player prop bet is Dallas Goedert over receiving yards. As mentioned, the Chiefs are woeful against tight ends. Goedert had a huge NFC Championship and should thrive once again in the Super Bowl. The best number is over 50.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to throw the Goedert over receiving yards in a same-game parlay with the following: Saquon Barkley over 110.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards, and Isiah Pacheco under 21.5 rushing yards. Barkley has a terrific matchup and should exceed 110 rushing yards. Kelce also has a great tight end matchup. And Pacheco is barely being used; he hasn’t had more than six carries since Week 16. This $25 parlay pays $253.30 at FanDuel. Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

Lots of money on the Eagles. Some of it sharp.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 73% (240,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 100-25 SU, 66-57 ATS (52-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Super Bowl LIX NFL Pick: Eagles 23, Chiefs 20

Eagles +1 (3 Units)

Under 48.5 (0 Units)

Super Bowl Future Hedge: Chiefs +3.5 -205 (3-4 Units)

Player Prop: Dallas Goedert over 50.5 receiving yards -110 (1 Unit) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

Same-Game Parlay: Dallas Goedert over 50.5 receiving yards, Saquon Barkley over 110.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards, Isiah Pacheco under 21.5 rushing yards (0.25 Units to win 2.55) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Lots of money on the Eagles. Some of it sharp.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 73% (240,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Patrick Mahomes is 100-25 SU, 66-57 ATS (52-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.