Rookie of the Year Watch: 2025 Odds Analysis
The curtain has fallen on the 2025 NFL Draft, marking the official arrival of a new class of talent
set to make their mark on the league. With selections complete, attention quickly turns to
predicting which rookies will shine brightest in their inaugural season.
The race for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards is already heating up, with
early betting odds providing a glimpse into the players expected to contend for these prestigious
honors.
Analyzing draft positions, landing spots, and team needs offers insight into potential snap
counts and opportunities, crucial factors in a rookie’s path to success. This analysis delves into
the early odds and key contenders for both awards, drawing on insights from draft experts and
initial betting markets.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Frontrunners
The top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds board is dominated by a quarterback and a
running back, a trend consistent with recent history. Cam Ward, selected first overall by the
Tennessee Titans, holds the shortest odds at +330. Close behind is Ashton Jeanty, the Las
Vegas Raiders' sixth overall pick, with odds of +340.
According to the latest NFL odds on FanDuel, these two top picks lead a tightly contested
OROY race, underscoring the high expectations placed on their rookie campaigns.
Since 2010, eight quarterbacks and four running backs have claimed the award. Ward is
expected to be the Titans’; Week 1 starter, while Jeanty could be a high-volume “bell-cow” back
in a run-focused scheme under new coach Pete Carroll.
Jeanty is noted as the earliest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018, who also
won OROY.
The Quarterback Edge
Recent award voting highlights a noticeable bias towards quarterbacks. Since 2004, nine of the
20 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners have been signal-callers. This bias is evident even
when non-quarterbacks have set rookie records, as seen with C.J. Stroud won over Puka
Nacua in 2023 and Jayden Daniels over Brock Bowers in 2024, despite both receivers breaking
significant rookie accolades.
Quarterbacks tend to get higher snap counts and produce bigger numbers in modern pass-
heavy offenses. Ward’s clear path to a starting role provides a significant advantage in this
context.
Running Back Opportunity
Running backs selected early or landing in backfields with minimal competition often have a fast
track to meaningful workloads—an advantage that significantly boosts their Offensive Rookie of
the Year (OROY) potential. Omarion Hampton, taken 22nd overall by the Los Angeles
Chargers, enters the race with +1400 odds.
His opportunity is considerable following the exits of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, which
opened up 296 vacated carries. Hampton will compete primarily with Najee Harris, who’s on a
one-year deal. With the Chargers expected to return to a run-heavy scheme, Hampton is well-
positioned to rack up yardage and make a strong OROY case.
Wide Receiver Candidates and Their Situations
Beyond the top quarterback and running back, several wide receivers feature prominently in the
Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, despite receivers historically needing underperforming
quarterback classes to win.
The most notable contenders include Travis Hunter of the Jacksonville Jaguars (+600) and
Tetairoa McMillan of the Carolina Panthers (+650). Other receivers with longer odds are
Matthew Golden of the Green Bay Packers (+1900) and Emeka Egbuka of the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers (+2300).
FanDuel’s guide to NFL weekly props offers deeper insights into how these rookie wideouts
might be used in game plans, helping bettors identify early-season value in dynamic passing
attacks.
McMillan is seen as the top receiver contender, potentially becoming a primary target for Bryce
Young, especially on downfield contested throws, with the possibility of a 1,000-yard season or
10 touchdowns. Hunter’s snap count could be affected by his planned two-way role at both
receiver and cornerback for Jacksonville.
Promising Day 2 and 3 Offensive Prospects
While first-rounders often dominate the conversation, the Offensive Rookie of the Year award
has been won by players selected outside the first round, particularly running backs.
Notable Day 2 and 3 offensive players to monitor include New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler
Shough (+2000), Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins (+2500), and New England
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson (+2000).
Shough could see playing time if Saints starter Derek Carr misses time with a shoulder injury.
Running backs like Pittsburgh’s Kaleb Johnson (+5000) and Denver’s R.J. Harvey (+5000)
landed in spots with vacated carries, potentially earning significant snaps.
Browns quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders (+1900) and Dillon Gabriel are long shots but could
contend if they win the starting job and produce like Dak Prescott did as a non-first-round winner
in 2016.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Outlook
Predicting the Defensive Rookie of the Year is often more straightforward, as the award heavily
favors early first-round picks. Abdul Carter, the New York Giants’ third overall pick, leads the
early odds at +240. Jalon Walker (Falcons LB, +550), Mason Graham (Browns DT, +750), and
Mykel Williams (49ers EDGE, +900) are also among the favorites.
Since 2000, 22 of the 25 DROY winners were first-rounders, mostly taken in the first half of the
round. Edge rushers and cornerbacks with high interception numbers have seen recent
success. However, players like Carter may face competition impacting their snap counts.
Edge Rushers Lead the Way
Edge rushers possess a distinct advantage in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race due to
their potential for “splash plays” primarily sacks, which are easily trackable and valued by
voters. Five of the last six DROY awards have gone to edge rushers. Players like Abdul Carter
and Mykel Williams are naturally positioned to compete.
Williams joins a strong 49ers defense and could benefit from playing opposite Nick Bosa. Other
first-round edge rushers like Cincinnati’s Shemar Stewart (+1200) and Atlanta’s James Pearce
Jr. (+2200) also have opportunities to make an impact. Stewart could see many snaps opposite
Trey Hendrickson, potentially boosting his sack opportunities.
Positional Hurdles
Certain positions face historical challenges in winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
Defensive tackles have not won since Aaron Donald in 2014. While Mason Graham (+750),
Walter Nolen (+2300), and Kenneth Grant (+6500) were first-round DTs, accumulating the nine-
plus sacks seemingly needed to register with voters is difficult from the interior.
Similarly, no safety has ever won the award, placing Baltimore’s Malaki Starks (+2300) at a
historical disadvantage despite his strong skill set. Denver’s Jahdae Barron (+2700) may benefit
from being targeted opposite a top cornerback, but as a slot defender, he faces long odds—no
player has ever won the award from that position.
Defensive Day 2 and 3 Sleepers
Although DROY heavily favors first-rounders, there are always potential sleepers from later
rounds. Historically, non-first-round winners have primarily been linebackers taken before pick
No. 40.
Cleveland Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger, taken early in Round 2 (No. 33), fits this
profile. Schwesinger is known as a tackling machine who creates impact plays and joins a
defense that encourages aggressive linebacker play.
His opportunity could significantly increase depending on teammate Jeremiah Owusu-
Koramoah’s health status.
Other notable Day 2 defenders include Michigan cornerback Will Johnson (+2300), who slid due
to injury, and South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori (+4000), compared to Kyle Hamilton and
joining his former defensive coordinator in Seattle.
Despite impressive college sack numbers, Day 2 edge rushers like Donovan Ezeiruaku (+1700)
and Mike Green (+1000) face historical precedent against winning the award based on draft
position.
The Path to Rookie Honors
The 2025 NFL Draft has set the stage for a compelling rookie race, with early odds and landing
spots shaping expectations for standout performances on both sides of the ball. From top picks
like Cam Ward and Abdul Carter to mid- and late-round sleepers with breakout potential, the
award races for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year promise unpredictability and
intrigue. Snap counts, depth chart opportunities, and team context will ultimately determine which rookies rise to the occasion. As training camps approach, the spotlight now shifts from
projections to execution—where this new class begins to prove its worth.
