Solid Starter
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State – Round 1 
For a lot of the leadup to the 2021 NFL Draft, I had the 49ers taking Lance with their first-round pick. It made sense because Lance has an excellent skill set but needed development for the NFL. Kyle Shanahan is one of the premier quarterback gurus and offensive schemers in the league. Shanahan has a shot to mold a talent like Lance into a good NFL quarterback. Despite the Mac Jones smoke rumors, Walt and I both had the 49ers taking Lance in our final mock drafts, and San Francisco pulled the trigger on the high=upside quarterback from North Dakota State.
From a skill-set perspective, the 6-foot-3, 221-pound Lance fits in with other other recent first-round prospects. Lance’s size, arm strength, running ability, and big=play potential are in line with other recent first-round quarterbacks such as Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Jordan Love.
As a passer, Lance definitely has next-level ability. He possesses a strong arm capable of making all the throws at the pro level. Lance shows the ability to fire fastballs to the sideline and has no problem airing out deep balls. Overall, Lance demonstrates good accuracy, and his deep ball precision is very impressive. Lance can consistently loft downfield passes that lead his receivers over the top of coverage. Lance also shows the ability to function in the quick passing game in the short part of the field, firing some quick bullets to move the ball.
One of Lance’s impressive traits from 2019, especially for such a young player, was his poise. Lance was very calm in the pocket, and when the rush was closing around him, it seemed to be a non-factor to him. Lance can use his legs to buy time and does a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield. When he can’t dodge tacklers, he can use his big frame to shake defenders free. Lance showed amazing pocket presence as a redshirt freshman.
The poise contributes into Lance making good decisions and protecting the football. He had some breaks go his way in 2019, and he would have thrown some interceptions if he made some of the same throws in the NFL, or at a higher level of college football, but overall, he does a nice job of placing his passes where his receivers can make a play and is not reckless with the football.
Lance’s mobility factors into him being a dangerous threat on the ground. His running ability simply jumps off the screen. Lance is a hard-charging runner who has quickness with a burst to hit the hole and is a load to tackle. At North Dakota State, Lance would routinely lower a shoulder and flat out run over defenders. He could be a running dual threat quarterback at the next level, but he will need to run less in the NFL to reduce his injury risk.
Lance is a very young player who was only a redshirt sophomore in 2020, so it isn’t surprising there are some raw elements to his game and he needs development. The most pressing issue to address is field vision. Lance has issues seeing the field, leading him to lock on to his primary read, to take off running when his first read is covered, and to be slow at looking off and working through his progressions. Lance must speed up his process of looking through his potential targets for the NFL. At North Dakota State, he had receivers running wide open a lot, and he will need to get more comfortable throwing into tight windows for the NFL. He flashed that ability, but given his level of competition, it is something he need to work on as a pro.
San Francisco mortgaged its future to get Lance, but I think the team ha a good plan for him that allows for developmental time. The 49ers can groom him at his own pace and eventually turn to him partway through the 2021 season, or in 2022. That process worked really well for Pat Mahomes and many quarterbacks in NFL history. In time, I think Lance could be a solid starter for the 49ers and an upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo.
2020: Jauan Jennings, WR
2019: Deebo Samuel, WR
2018: Fred Warner, LB
2017: Reuben Foster, LB
2016: Joshua Garnett, G
2015: Jaquiski Tartt, S
2014: Marcus Martin, C
2013: Tank Carradine, DE
Most Likely To Bust
Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan – Round 3 
Having a late third-round pick not pan out is not a true bust because many players have future backup grades at that point in a draft. Still, the 49ers’ selection of Thomas at pick No. 102 looks like the riskiest of their four selections from the opening two days of the 2021 NFL Draft. Thomas has some tightness as a corner, and he could have major issues with pass interference penalties in the NFL thanks to his tendency to grab wideouts. His habit of holding is going to be a problem, plus he can be “out-physicaled” on 50-50 passes. I think these issues could lead to Thomas topping out as a backup, which isn’t a huge bust for a third-rounder, but many teams project their third-round picks to start out as backups and work their way into being starters.
2020: Brandon Aiyuk, WR
2019: Jalen Hurd, WR
2018: Dante Pettis, WR
2017: Solomon Thomas, DE
2016: Rashard Robinson, CB
2015: Eli Harold, OLB
2014: Chris Borland, ILB
2013: Eric Reid, S
Potential Boom Pick
Aaron Banks, G, Notre Dame – Round 2 
The 49ers made a massive investment in quarterback Trey Lance, so they were wise to build up his offensive line for the future. They were set at offensive tackle with bookends Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey position, but they helped Lance by making an upgrade at guard by taking Banks in the second round.
Banks (6-5, 338) was a solid and reliable pass protector at Notre Dame. He has strong hands that rock defenders and can knock them off balance to slow them down. Those strong hands also help him to sustain blocks and prevent second efforts from being effective. With good size and strength, Banks can stop bull rushes. Speed rushes can give Banks some issues because he has some athletic tightness, and he will have to improve on that for the NFL. The San Francisco staff, however, can probably fix those issues with some coaching and experience.
Banks was a productive run blocker for the Fighting Irish, who had a lot of success running behind him. He is powerful at the point of attack with strong hands to rock back defenders. With his thick build and upper body, Banks can drive block and create a push. He is a great fit as a power-man blocker rather.
With the 49ers, Banks looks like an early starter, and it would not surprise me if he becomes one of the better guards in the NFL. I think he has boom pick potential for San Francisco and could end up being an excellent value as a second-round pick.
2020: Javon Kinlaw, DT
2019: Nick Bosa, DE
2018: Mike McGlinchey, OT
2017: Akhello Witherspoon, CB
2016: DeForest Buckner, DE
2015: Arik Armstead, DE
2014: Carlos Hyde, RB
2013: Marcus Lattimore, RB
Future Depth Player
Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State – Round 3 
Running back wasn’t a screaming need for the 49ers, but adding some depth was necessary due to some losses in free agency. Sermon was a nice value pick in the third round, as he has a good skill set for the NFL while being a really nice fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Sermon (6-0, 215) is a hard-charging running back who could turn into a three-down starter as a pro, provided he is in the right system. He is a physical runner with quality quickness and a strong build. Sermon uses that strength to pick up yards after contact; he fights through tacklers, and is capable of tossing defenders to the side to pick up more yardage. The trait that really stands out is how well Sermon finishes runs, as he falls forward for extra yards and is able to push through defenders at the end of plays to generate more gains for his offense. He has good contact balance, a strong stiff arm, and the speed to hit the hole with acceleration to the second level.
Sermon needs a system that sets up his holes for him because he is not a creative runner who can make things happen on his own. He puts more pressure on his offensive line to make sure they give him lanes. Sermon is not shifty, lacks anticipation, does not have good vision, and is below average at setting up blocks. Hence, he needs a good line to be effective. Fortunately for Sermon, he landed with a good offensive line in San Francisco and has a genius play caller in Kyle Shanahan with a great scheme that sets up favorable running looks for its backs.
Sermon’s physical limitations might keep from being “the guy” and feature back during his career, but he could be a good backup behind Raheem Mostert and has the potential to be a solid starter if Mostert is injured for a time.
2020: Colton McKivits, OT
2019: Kaden Smith, TE
2018: Kentavius Street, DE
2017: Joe Williams, RB
2016: Jeff Driskel, QB
2015: Mike Davis, RB
2014: Bruce Ellington, WR
2013: Vance McDonald, TE
Walt’s 2021 NFL Draft Grades:
3. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State – A- Grade
I’ve been in contact with several 49er fans who have been incredibly fearful of their team selecting Mac Jones. They can all now be at ease, as their team made the correct decision. Trey Lance is a much better prospect than Jones. Lance may not be as accurate as Jones in the short passing game, but he has much better arm strength, and he’s an incredible athlete. He also possesses high intelligence and character traits. The one concern with Lance is that he’s raw, especially after missing last season, but Charlie Campbell was told that Lance resembles Josh Allen. Give him two or three years, and he’ll likely be a superstar.
48. Aaron Banks, G, Notre Dame – B- Grade
I’ve said this multiple times, but I’m always a fan of teams adding to the offensive line to protect a young quarterback. Trey Lance is raw, so he’ll need all the protection he can get once he takes over for Jimmy Garoppolo. I had Banks slated as a third-round prospect, but I don’t hate this value in the middle of the second frame.
88. Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State – D Grade
I’m surprised the 49ers traded up for a running back in the third round because it seems as though Kyle Shanahan can draft a running back in the eighth round and turn him into a star. Trey Sermon is a powerful runner, but he has poor vision and anticipation, which concerns me. He’s also not good in pass protection, which is also a problem.
102. Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan – B- Grade
The 49ers lost multiple defensive backs this offseason, so they had to address both positions during the 2021 NFL Draft. Ambry Thomas is a fine selection. I had him slotted early on Day 3, so taking him at the end of the third frame isn’t too bad.
155. Jaylon Moore, OT, Western Michigan – B Grade
Trent Williams was re-signed, but his health is unreliable. The 49ers needed to find an insurance policy for Williams, and this is a fine one. I had Jaylon Moore in the fifth or sixth rounds of my updates, so the range makes sense for Moore.
172. Deommodore Lenoir, CB, Oregon – B Grade
This is the 49ers’ second cornerback, which is a logical pick because of the players they lost at the position this offseason. I’ve had Deommodore Leonoir around this range in my mock draft, so this is a fine selection.
180. Talanoa Hufanga, S, USC – B+ Grade
Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford… the 49ers obviously needed to address the secondary. Talanoa Hufanga was someone I mocked in the fourth round, so I’m definitely a fan of this value.
194. Elijah Mitchell, KR, Lousiana – B Grade
Elijah Mitchell is a pure kick returner who won’t do much else. There’s not much to analyze here beyond the 49ers getting a dynamic threat on special teams. I didn’t have Mitchell drafted, but only because I didn’t know where to slot him.
2021 NFL Draft Team Grade: B. Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.
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