Updated March 8, 2023
This is a feature I do every year prior to free agency. I will attempt to predict where the prominent free agent and rookie quarterbacks will land during the offseason. Here’s the full list of the significant quarterbacks available this spring:
Tom Brady
Jacoby Brissett
Jimmy Garoppolo
Lamar Jackson
Will Levis
Marcus Mariota
Baker Mayfield
Anthony Richardson
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Ryan
CJ Stroud
Tua Tagovailoa
Carson Wentz
Mike White
Jameis Winston
Bryce Young
With so many teams that need quarterbacks, this game of quarterback musical chairs is going to make this spring extremely interesting.
So, why wait? I’m going to project all of these quarterbacks to teams on this page, and I may update this if I hear anything, or if any news breaks. Jacob Camenker and I broke it down in our latest video podcast:
Here are my projections, alphabetically:
Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Tom Brady shocked everyone last spring by reversing his retirement after 40 days. I have to imagine that a team like the 49ers will attempt to coax him out of retirement, but I think he’ll stay away from football this time. Brady looked like he lost all passion for the game late last season, performing like David Carr – not Derek Carr – in a playoff loss to the Cowboys where he seemed unwilling to take any hits after being pulverized all season. I never saw Brady play like he was mentally checked out, so I don’t see him returning for another season.
Jacoby Brissett, Browns 
When it was announced that Deshaun Watson would be suspended for 11 games, many assumed that the Browns would have trouble scoring until Watson returned. That was hardly the case, as the Browns averaged more points per game with Jacoby Brissett than with Watson. Brissett performed brilliantly, so there will be a demand for his services in 2023. I believe the Cardinals are the favorite to land him. Kyler Murray won’t be ready for the start of the season because of his torn ACL, so Arizona will need a steady hand to manage the offense until Murray can return to action. Brissett will fit in well with the Cardinals because the offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, was Cleveland’s quarterbacks coach last year.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers 
Tom Brady has announced his retirement, so the Buccaneers are in dire need of a quarterback. They have Kyle Trask waiting in the wings, but he’s not a realistic option if Tampa Bay wants to compete for a Super Bowl this upcoming season. The Buccaneers have a veteran roster, so it would make sense for them to pursue a successful game manager like Jimmy Garoppolo. The Patriots once envisioned that Garoppolo would succeed Brady on their team, so it would be amusing to see that very thing happen on another team.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens 
Lamar Jackson wants more money than Deshaun Watson, which doesn’t seem like a price the Ravens are willing to pay. It doesn’t seem like anyone else wants to pay either, as all eligible suitors have leaked that they have no interest. This could be misleading, but it sounds like Jackson will be back for one year, playing on his non-exclusive franchise tag. The Ravens would ideally trade Jackson to a non-threatening team, but it doesn’t appear as though the Falcons or Panthers are willing to pay the price for Jackson.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky 
Will Levis is likely to be the fourth quarterback chosen in the 2023 NFL Draft in the wake of Anthony Richardson’s great performance at the combine. As it happens, the Panthers are the final team in the top 10 that needs a signal-caller. If the order remains unchanged, the Panthers will be in a position to draft Levis. Things could obviously change with trades, but that’s how things stand at the moment.
Marcus Mariota, Falcons 
Marcus Mariota started for most of the 2022 season in Atlanta. He wasn’t successful at all, but he’ll be highly pursued as a top-end backup. A natural landing spot for him would be the Seahawks, who don’t have any quarterbacks under contract at the moment who aren’t named Geno Smith. Mariota going to Seattle makes sense because new coach Greg Olson tutored Mariota in Las Vegas. Mariota would fit right into Olson’s offense, providing some great insurance for Smith.
Baker Mayfield, Rams 
Baker Mayfield looked completely lost during his horrific stint in Carolina last year. The Panthers eventually released him, prompting the Rams to give him a chance. Mayfield made the most out of it with some nice victories over the Raiders and Broncos. Mayfield looked like a completely different quarterback under Sean McVay’s tutelage, so I believe Mayfield will opt to re-sign with the Rams for one more year. He won’t get to play if Matthew Stafford is healthy, but he can continue to learn from McVay to help turn his career around.
Anthony Richardson, Florida 
Anthony Richardson blew up the combine, running in the low 4.4s and displaying his amazing arm strength in the on-field drills. Accuracy remains a concern, but his upside is undeniable. Charlie Campbell published a report in the Hot Press, citing that the Raiders prefer Anthony Richardson over Will Levis. Richardson would be thrust into a great situation with the Raiders, as he’ll have so many dynamic weapons at his disposal, all while being coached by Josh McDaniels.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers 
I was almost tempted to slot Aaron Rodgers back to the Packers. It almost seems like a fantasy that he would go elsewhere at this point, but I think it’ll finally happen this offseason. Rodgers always seems to be unhappy with the Green Bay front office and its unwillingness to provide him with adequate receiving talent, so I think he’ll want to finally leave the Packers. The Jets are considered the favorites to obtain Rodgers if he departs. Rodgers would certainly be thrilled with New York’s arsenal.
Matt Ryan, Colts 
Matt Ryan may retire, but there will still be a demand for his services as a backup despite his dreadful 2022 season in Indianapolis. Ron Rivera is all too familiar with Ryan during his long tenure in the NFC South, so there could be a ‘member berry dynamic in effect regarding this potential signing. Obtaining Ryan would make sense because the Redskins need a veteran in the quarterback room to tutor presumed starter Slingin’ Sammy Howell.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State 
C.J. Stroud will almost certainly be the first or second quarterback off the board, so unless the Raiders, Panthers or Falcons trade with the Bears or Cardinals, Stroud will be going to either the Colts or Texans. Indianapolis has the easiest road to move up with Chicago, so if it targets Bryce Young, as expected, that would leave Stroud for the Texans.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins 
I’m listing Tua Tagovailoa here because I’ve seen some rumors floating around regarding a possible trade. One potential deal I saw was with the Buccaneers for a swap of picks. This was nothing substantive, however, so I don’t necessarily think anything will come of this. I imagine Miami fans will want the team to move on from the injury-prone Tagovailoa, but I don’t think that’ll happen.
Carson Wentz, Redskins 
Carson Wentz continues to regress at an alarming rate. At this pace, he may not be good enough for the XFL during their 2024 season. I imagine he’ll get one more chance in the NFL, so perhaps that’ll happen in Jacksonville. Wentz once had great success playing for Doug Pederson, so perhaps Pederson will want to give Wentz a chance at reviving his career.
Mike White, Jets 
John Lynch told the media that he wants to sign a veteran quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo likely to leave this offseason. Assuming Garoppolo departs, the two quarterbacks on the roster will have a combined 10 career starts, and both happen to be coming off injuries. The 49ers need a veteran in the quarterback room, and Mike White seems like a great fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Jameis Winston, QB, Saints
Jameis Winston still has starting potential, and he should be healthy after missing most of 2022 with an injury. Perhaps he’ll have an opportunity to start in Miami if Tua Tagovailoa suffers yet another injury. Tagovailoa has a major problem remaining in the lineup, so the Dolphins will want to pay a heavy price for a viable backup.
Bryce Young, Alabama 
Bryce Young is the favorite to be chosen No. 1 overall. The problem, at the moment, is that the Bears own the top pick, so it’s difficult to project where he will go. The Colts, as mentioned earlier, have the easiest road to move up to No. 1. Furthermore, Jim Irsay gushed over Young in a recent press conference, so he could instruct the front office to do whatever it takes to move up for Young.
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