2025 NFL Season Preview: Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs (Last Year: 15-2)



2025 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Gardner Minshew, RB Elijah Mitchell, OT Jaylon Moore, DT Jerry Tillery, CB Kristian Fulton.
Early Draft Picks:
OT Josh Simmons, DT Omarr Norman-Lott, DE Ashton Gillotte, CB Nohl Williams, WR Jalen Royals. Chiefs Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Carson Wentz, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Watson, WR Mecole Hardman, OT D.J. Humphries, G Joe Thuney, DE Josh Uche, DT Tershawn Wharton, S Justin Reid.

2025 Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
The Chiefs are often recognized for their explosive attack, but their offense has not met expectations in recent seasons. The Chiefs averaged 29.2, 28.2, 29.6, 28.2, and 35.3 points per game in Patrick Mahomes’ first five seasons as a starter, but that number dipped to 21.8 in 2023. That average was slightly better in 2023 (23.1), but it still paled in comparison to what Mahomes and the Chiefs were able to produce prior to 2023.

So, what happened to make the Chiefs so much worse offensively despite having the best quarterback in the league at the helm? There have been two factors at play. What was most prominent last year was the struggles of the offensive line. Left tackle, in particular, was problematic. The Chiefs had a revolving door at the position where they tried different solutions, and yet nothing worked. They even signed aging veteran D.J. Humphries off the street, but he was another disappointment. Kansas City ultimately settled on moving guard Joe Thuney to the position. Thuney did a fairly decent job there, but was severely overmatched against the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

Thuney, surprisingly, was traded. Given that he put together such a heroic effort to play multiple positions last year, it was utterly shocking to see him moved to the Bears. The Chiefs were at least able to obtain a pair of potential left tackle solutions in Jaylon Moore and Josh Simmons. Moore did a solid job replacing Trent Williams last year, so he should be fine to start unless Simmons is ready. Simmons, chosen in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, is extremely talented, but is coming off a torn patella tendon, an injury that has ended many NFL careers. Reports indicate that he seems ready to return to action, but it remains to be seen if that is truly the case. Perhaps the loser of the Moore versus Simmons battle can replace Thuney at left guard because 2024 second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia is projected to start there. Suamataia was atrocious as one of the left tackle options last year.

There’s also a chance that the loser of the Moore versus Simmons clash will replace Jawaan Taylor at right tackle. Taylor isn’t a huge liability, but he isn’t exactly a strength either. There’s certainly room for improvement there, though the same can’t be said about the other two blockers. Creed Humphrey is one of the top centers in the NFL, while Trey Smith is an exceptional guard.

The other factor regarding Kansas City’s declining offense is that the receiving corps has missed a true No. 1. Travis Kelce was able to serve in this role in 2022, but he has regressed the past two years. Rashee Rice looked like he was going to take the next step last year, but he suffered a season-ending injury and will have to dodge a suspension for his off-the-field issues. Xavier Worthy had a disappointing start to his rookie campaign, but caught fire toward the end of 2025, so perhaps he can make a big leap. The Chiefs also have Hollywood Brown, who missed most of 2024 with an injury, but all of this pales in comparison to what Kansas City had with Tyreek Hill several seasons ago.

Rice and Brown weren’t the only Kansas City play-makers who dealt with injuries last year. Isiah Pacheco missed a chunk of the season as well. He returned late in the year, but wasn’t close to his usual self. With a whole offseason to recover, Pacheco should be back to 100 percent to begin the 2025 campaign.



2025 Kansas City Chiefs Defense:
With the offense sputtering throughout the past two seasons, the defense had to pull its weight. It did exactly that, surrendering just 17.3 points per game in 2023 and then 20.4 points per contest last year. The 2024 playoff run was especially impressive, as Kansas City limited the opposition to 15.8 points per game despite battling Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson in the three games leading up to the Super Bowl.

While the 2023 Kansas City defense was incredible, the 2024 version took a step backward in production. Part of the problem was that starting cornerback L’Jarius Sneed departed for Tennessee, and then Jaylen Watson, another key player at the position, managed to play just six games. Watson will be back to play across from terrific corner Trent McDuffie, while the solid Chamarri Conner will continue to serve as the nickel.

However, this offseason marked the second time in as many years that the Chiefs lost a key member of the secondary. Safety Justin Reid moved on to New Orleans, so the Chiefs will need 2024 fourth-rounder Jaden Hicks to perform well. Hicks showed some promise last season, albeit in limited action. He’ll start next to Bryan Cook, who is coming off a disappointing year.

The Chiefs’ secondary will at least have strong support from the defensive line. The front is spearheaded by Chris Jones, arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Jones will turn 31 prior to the 2025 season, so there could be some regression in the near future. The Chiefs don’t have much else at the position, though second-round rookie Omarr Norman-Lott could provide a boost.

Kansas City has a higher quantity of talented players on the edge. George Karlaftis is a dangerous edge rusher, while Mike Danna is a young player with upside. Danna played about half the snaps last year, but has shown a strong ability to rush the passer.

Rounding out the defense is a capable linebacking corps comprised of three solid players in Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and Leo Chenal. Bolton is the best of the trio, though he missed a chunk of the 2023 season with an injury. Tranquill is better in coverage than run support, while Chenal is the opposite. Bolton and Chenal are 25 and 24, respectively, so there’s a ton of potential with this group.



2025 Kansas City Chiefs Schedule and Intangibles:
The Chiefs needed to bring back the Arrowhead magic that existed prior to 2007. Since that year, Kansas City was a dreadful 20-37 as a host heading into the 2014 campaign. However, Kansas City is now 80-25 at Arrowhead over the past 10 seasons, including a perfect 10-0 in 2024.

Harrison Butker has drawn the ire of cat ladies more than a year ago, but there’s no denying his kicking talent. He was 33-of-35 in 2023 and then 21-of-25 last year, including 7-of-10 from 50-plus in that span. Harrison Butker aprons are available for sale by clicking the link.

Punter Tommy Townsend had an incredible year. He finished third in net punting and second in punts placed inside the 20-yard line.

The Chiefs have a mixed schedule. They have a number of tough non-divisional opponents, including the Eagles, Ravens, Bills, Texans, Lions, and Redskins. However, they also get to up against the Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Giants, and Cowboys.



2025 Kansas City Chiefs Rookies:
Go here for the Chiefs Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.



2025 Kansas City Chiefs Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
Quarterbacks
Offensive Line
Secondary
Running Backs
Defensive Line
Special Teams
Receivers
Linebackers
Coaching


2025 Kansas City Chiefs Analysis: It seems as though many are counting out the Chiefs this year, whether it’s because of their offensive line woes or their many close calls last year. This seems wildly incorrect. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, and Andy Reid is coaching on the sidelines, the Chiefs will always be one of the best teams in the NFL. In fact, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Kansas City ended up winning the Super Bowl for the fourth time in Mahomes’ career.

Projection: 13-4 (1st in AFC West)

2024 Projection: 12-5. 2023 Actual Result: 15-2.
2023 Projection: 13-4. 2023 Actual Result: 11-6.
2022 Projection: 11-6. 2022 Actual Result: 13-4.
2021 Projection: 16-1. 2021 Actual Result: 12-5.
2020 Projection: 13-3. 2020 Actual Result: 14-2.
2019 Projection: 13-3. 2019 Actual Result: 12-4.
2018 Projection: 11-5. 2018 Actual Result: 12-4.
2017 Projection: 11-5. 2017 Actual Result: 10-6.
2016 Projection: 10-6. 2016 Actual Result: 12-4.


2025 Fantasy Football Rankings


More 2025 NFL Season Previews



NFL Draft Team Grade: A- Grade

Goals Entering the 2025 NFL Draft: Though the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl last year, they still had some glaring weaknesses. The offensive line was in shambles, and the situation could be even worse with Joe Thuney gone. The Chiefs also need a nose tackle to help their run defense, as well as a receiver to make the offense more explosive.

2025 NFL Draft Accomplishments: The Chiefs took a big risk with the final pick in the opening round. They drafted Josh Simmons, who is coming off a torn patella tendon. Patella tendon tears have ended many careers, and there’s a chance Simmons will never be able to play well again. However, if Simmons recovers, he could be a franchise left tackle for the team. While this is a big gamble, most draft picks are often risks, so the Chiefs did well to shoot for the upside.

Kansas City used its next two picks on the defensive line, perhaps realizing that generating the best pass rush possible will allow them to rattle other quarterbacks, much like the Eagles did to Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Omar Norman-Lott provided solid value in the second frame, though Ashton Gillotte wasn’t nearly as much of a bargain.

The Chiefs made two excellent picks on Saturday, with Jalen Royals being their top acquisition. Royals could have easily been taken in Round 3, so perhaps he’ll be able to become a viable threat for Mahomes.

Overall, Kansas City did a very good job in the 2025 NFL Draft. The team addressed needs, and only one of its seven picks was graded worse than a B+.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:


32. Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State – A- Grade

This is a scary pick. Josh Simmons tore his patella tendon, an injury that has ended many NFL careers. Reports indicate that Simmons is doing well medically, but it’s difficult to know if that’s legit. However, the Chiefs needed to take a risk to fix Patrick Mahomes’ pass protection with so many offensive linemen off the board. If Simmons is healthy, he’ll be amazing for the Chiefs. He would have been a top-10 lock if he didn’t have any medical issues.


63. Omar Norman-Lott, DT, Tennessee – B+ Grade

The Chiefs need offensive line more than anything, but they also had to find a defensive tackle to play next to Chris Jones. Omar Norman-Lott could be a quality starter. He’s a smaller defensive tackle, but gets good pressure on the quarterback. He makes sense at the bottom of Round 2.


66. Ashton Gillotte, DE, Louisville – C Grade

Ashton Gillotte was very productive at Louisville, but I don’t know if he’ll translate to the NFL. He has height and length issues, so the upside may not be there. Still, he improved each year in college, so perhaps he’ll defy the odds.


85. Nohl Williams, CB, California – B+ Grade

Nohl Williams is a tough cornerback with nice size. He received lots of interest late in the pre-draft process, so I’m not surprised to see him go in the third round. The Chiefs needed a cornerback, so this pick makes sense.


133. Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State – A+ Grade

I love this pick for multiple reasons. Jalen Royals was someone I projected in the third round, so I really like the value. This also fills a big need, as the Chiefs have either injury-prone or troubled receivers. This is a great selection.


156. Jeffery Bassa, LB, Oregon – A Grade

There are a number of great value picks being made in Round 5, and this is one of them. I had Jeffery Bassa in Rounds 3-4, so it’s great that the Chiefs were able to get him in the middle of the fifth frame. Bassa is a quick and instinctive linebacker who has a decent chance of becoming a starter down the road.


228. Brashard Smith, RB, SMU – B+ Grade

The Chiefs traded into this pick to draft some needed running back depth. Brashard Smith is a solid pick here, as he has positive receiving ability.

Follow me @walterfootball for updates.





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