NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,945)
2026 NFL Picks: 48-52-5 (-$175)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 25, 11:37 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would've happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DENVER OFFENSE: Sean Payton took over the play-calling duties a couple of weeks ago. Many expected things to get better, but that hasn't happened for the Broncos, or at least it appears as though it hasn't. Denver's offense has remained stagnant, and Bo Nix has struggled so much that the media has asked Payton if there will be a quarterback change.

I say there hasn't appeared to be a difference because the Broncos ranked 23rd in offensive EPA between Weeks 1 and 4 and just 28th in Weeks 5 and 6. However, they battled the Chargers and Seahawks in those latter two games. Those are two of the best defenses in the NFL. This, however, is a much easier matchup.

Arizona has a rather pitiful defense. The Cardinals rank 24th in defensive EPA, and they're dead last against the pass. They're also 27th in pressure rate. The Broncos have allowed plenty of sacks, but that's largely because they've battled teams like the Chargers, Seahawks, and Rams, who can get after the quarterback quite frequently. Things will be different in this contest, so Nix might actually have a solid performance, even though he still won't have his mobility.

The only thing the Cardinals are good at is stopping the run. They're eighth in that department, so they should be able to handle J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey. This will make it vital for Nix to take advantage of his favorable matchup.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unlike Nix, Jacoby Brissett does not have an easy matchup in this game. I've said recently that Denver's defense is overrated, but the Broncos still rank in the top 10 in various categories. They're seventh in pressure rate and, as a result, eighth against the pass (worse now with Patrick Surtain injured.)

The Cardinals, however, have allowed the second-fewest pressures in the NFL, so something has to give. Things may be a bit different now that Paris Johnson is sidelined, so this is an area the Broncos should be able to exploit.

The Broncos are at their weakest when defending the run. They're just in the middle of the pack against the rush, so if the Cardinals have Jeremiyah Love available, they might be able to take advantage of that by pounding the ball and keeping possession away from Nix, much like they did in their two games at SoFi Stadium against the Chargers and Rams.

It's unknown if Love will be available for this game. He missed last week's contest, though Tyler Allgeier was still able to execute the same strategy the Cardinals will need to win this game. Love, however, is obviously much more talented than Allgeier, so his presence would be a huge boon for Arizona's upset aspirations.

RECAP: It really pissed me off that the Cardinals won last week. Not because I bet the Rams, or because I took the Rams in my final three survivor entries - I hedged, of course - but what pisses me off the most is that it's tougher to bet Arizona this week.

If you've been reading this site for a while, you know that I love to fade bad teams coming off a victory. They have trouble sustaining success, and that's been the case for the Cardinals. Over the past five seasons, during which Arizona hasn't had a winning record, the Cardinals are a measly 6-12 against the spread following a victory. Granted, they're 3-4 against the spread as home underdogs in that situation, but it's still not ideal to pick them after a win.

However, I'll still be on Arizona in this contest. The Broncos are a very overrated team that is no better than average. Their net EPA ranks just 14th, and they play much worse outside of Mile High, where they can't take advantage of the altitude. They're 4-2 right now, but they have a -11 point differential.

Nix has been terrible, and while this is a positive matchup for him, I'm not entirely sure he can take advantage of it. I'll be backing the Cardinals here, but not for nearly as many units as I would have if they were coming off a loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Broncos may have Patrick Surtain back this week. He was limited in Wednesday's practice, though his ankle injury could flare up at any moment.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals may be without Jeremiyah Love again because he missed Wednesday's practice. Budda Baker was also sidelined Wednesday, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Cardinals kept him inactive if they have a potential trade on the horizon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I'm switching my pick to the Broncos for several reasons.

First, the injuries don't look good for the Cardinals. Defensively, they're going to be without Walter Nolen and potentially Budda Baker, Max Melton and Darius Robinson. Baker's absence would really hurt because that would mean the Cardinals would have cluster injuries at safety, with Andrew Wingard sidelined as well. Robinson has played well this year, so his potential absence, along with Nolen's, would mean cluster injuries on the defensive line.

Offensively, the Cardinals might be missing John Gaines, who has stepped in and played well for the injured Isaiah Adams. If Gaines is out, Arizona will be down three offensive linemen. Jeremiyah Love won't play either.

Meanwhile, the Broncos will likely be getting back Patrick Surtain and Jonah Coleman, which would be a nice boost for both sides of the ball.

Second, I've been thinking about this game a lot, and I think it could really resemble the Seahawks-Cardinals game from Week 2. You might point out that Bo Nix being favored on the road is a bad betting opportunity. However, Drew Lock was also favored in Arizona, and the Seahawks demolished the Cardinals. Arizona is more banged up now than it was in Week 2, and Nix, as bad as he is, is better than Lock.

I'm no fan of Nix, but he has faced a tough schedule this year. Last week, he battled Seattle's No. 4 defense. The week before, he took on the Chargers, who are terrible overall but have the No. 6 defense in the NFL. The game before that, the Broncos battled the 49ers, who are No. 5 in defense.

And it doesn't stop there. The prior three opponents, in reverse chronological order, were the Rams, Jaguars and Chiefs. The Rams are 13th in defense, the Jaguars are 11th, and the Chiefs, albeit with an easy schedule, are 10th.

This means Nix has not battled a defense ranked worse than 13th in the NFL this year. That's remarkable. The Cardinals, conversely, are 24th in defense, and that's not factoring in all the injuries they have on that side of the ball. Again, I'm no fan of Nix, but he should have his best game yet.

And the Cardinals, with three missing offensive linemen, are not going to be able to block the Broncos. Arizona, once again, is coming off a loss, and we want to fade these horrible teams when they're trying to sustain success because they simply cannot do it very often.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If I didn't think the Broncos could be looking ahead to the Chiefs game next week, I'd be heavy on them. Unfortunately, this could be a flat spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos won't have Patrick Surtain, while the Cardinals will have Budda Baker. This is a good swing for the Cardinals. We've just seen the Panthers look ahead, so I don't want to get trapped with Denver. The sharps haven't touched this game. The best line is -4.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Decent action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 63% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 52-39 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Broncos -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.