NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2026 – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

WEEK 6 RECAP: Week 5 was great, but Week 6 sucked due to big losses on the ladders, as well as Jacksonville's inability to play a good game.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jaguars, 5 units (loss): So much for the Jaguars having the best home-field advantage in football. Their body clocks should have been set in London, but they looked lethargic, making countless mistakes. Liam Coen screwed us by making a boneheaded decision by kicking a 60-yard field goal, giving the Texans a free win.

Jets, 3 units (win): The Patriots appeared to cover with a frontdoor field goal at the very end, but the Jets had enough time to drive down the field for a backdoor field goal. Thank you, Geno Smith!

Bears, 3 units (win): If only all gambling victories were this easy.

Rams, 4 units (loss): Wow. What a pathetic performance. The Rams were lethargic on offense and didn't want to tackle on defense. I want to send an invoice to the Rams, demanding my $440 back.

Cowboys, 4 units (loss): Our week was going fine until Sunday night. I don't understand how the Cowboys can score 30-plus points against the Ravens and Texans, and yet they score 16 points against the Buccaneers and seven on the Packers. What a f**king joke.

Cowboys-Packers, 7 units (loss): This was a blood bath. Dak Prescott was pathetic, and anyone who considers him to be a top quarterback is an imbecile. Prescott made sure he couldn't get our combined passing yards, and Dallas' inability to score prevented Jordan Love from reaching 292.5 passing yards, which was a great number at halftime. I don't understand how CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens suddenly can't get open. Someone on Dallas' coaching staff needs to be fired.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: A.J. Brown's return to action didn't go exactly as planned. Brown hadn't played since Week 1, but he was able to take the field against the Jets this past Sunday. The results were ugly, as Brown dropped numerous passes and was unimpressive overall. However, it was his first game back from injury, and he was just getting his feet wet. There's a good chance he'll be better this week, and if he is, he'll be able to abuse the Chicago secondary that was torched by Jordan Love a couple of weeks ago.

The Bears don't get to the quarterback very often. They've generated just 94 quarterback pressures through six weeks, which is an underwhelming number. Drake Maye, whose play has improved greatly recently, would normally have enough time to locate Brown and his other receivers downfield. However, that could be challenged with the New England offensive line injuries. Both guards and the right tackle all suffered injuries versus the Jets, so Chicago might be able to apply pressure on Maye.

The offensive line injuries could impact the running game as well. The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and even Corey Kiner would normally pick up chunks of yardage in this matchup, but not if they're not getting the appropriate blocking.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Brown wasn't the only player in this matchup who returned to action last week. Caleb Williams was able to take the field for the first time since getting carted off to the locker room in Week 2. Williams didn't look rusty at all. He completed his first 10 passes and was able to dissect Atlanta's secondary for most of the afternoon.

Williams will find that he has a tougher matchup in this game. I don't like the Patriots' safeties, but New England ranks 10th in pass defense this year, so Williams may not be as flawless as he was to begin last week's game. Then again, I trust Ben Johnson to scheme his receivers open, even against Mike Vrabel.

Also, Williams may not have to throw that much, either. The Patriots are just 22nd against the run, and we know how lethal Chicago's rushing attack is. D'Andre Swift should have another nice game, picking up where Braelon Allen left off versus New England last week.

RECAP: You probably know by now that I don't like to bet Thursday night games unless there's a special circumstance. These games are often sloppy because players are somehow asked to perform on just three days of rest, which is completely unreasonable.

However, this could change if the Patriots will be missing both guards and their right tackle. Playing with a depleted offensive line on just three days of preparation and travel could be too much to ask. If the Patriots have such dire offensive line cluster injuries, I will consider backing the Bears for a small wager.

One other thing that helps the Chicago argument is that the public is all over the Patriots. The public has gotten smoked this year. I have a conspiracy theory that the sportsbooks want to rig the results when economic times are tough, and I seem to recall similar public futility back in 2008. But I'm just a crazy conspiracy theorist, so don't mind me. You can view which other teams are getting massive public money below.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As promised, I plan on betting two units on the Bears because the Patriots have an injury cluster on the offensive line. They're down their top three guards, and their right tackle is questionable after being limited in practice all week. They're also missing their No. 2 cornerback.

Despite all these injuries, the public is backing the Patriots at a high rate. Thus, the Bears look like the right side. I'm going to lock this in now before the line moves to -3.5. The best line is -3 -102 at DraftKings.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: FanDuel has a 30-percent boost on same-game parlays for this game, up to $25. The parlay is posted below.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out that there was no reason to lock in the Bears because the best current line is slightly better than what we got Thursday morning, which is -3 +100 at BetMGM. The sharps haven't taken either side, which is surprising, considering that the Patriots will be without their top three guards, while Christian Gonzalez may be at less than 100 percent with his sudden illness.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The Patriots are a massive public underdog.

Percentage of money on New England: 70% (232,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.