NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2023 – Late Games

Jalen Hurts
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
2023 NFL Picks: 106-105-7 (-$6,320)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15 Late Games

San Francisco 49ers (10-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
Line: 49ers by 12. Total: 48.5.

Sunday, Dec. 17, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: This is the most lopsided matchup of the week. The 49ers own the league’s top offense, while the Cardinals have a horrendous defense incapable of stopping anyone.

In particular, Arizona is atrocious when it comes to stopping the run. This is what the 49ers love to do. In the unlikely event that the 49ers would feed the ball 30 times to Christian McCaffrey, he’d have a chance at the rushing record. It’s doubtful that San Francisco would wear him out in an easy game like this, however.

McCaffrey isn’t the only one with a big edge. Arizona has struggled to defend outside receivers. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will thrive. George Kittle doesn’t have as good of a matchup, but it’s not like the Cardinals are elite against tight ends either.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: If the 49ers have a weakness, it’s their cornerbacks. They just allowed D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to torch their secondary. This wasn’t some fluke; San Francisco allows the sixth-most production to outside receivers.

Kyler Murray will have a chance for some positive production. He’ll be able to connect with Marquise Brown and either Michael Wilson or Greg Dortch. Trey McBride, conversely, may not have a great game because the 49ers are great versus tight ends.

San Francisco is also excellent at defending the run, whether it’s clamping down on opposing backs or limiting scrambling quarterbacks from doing much on the ground. This is a bummer for Murray, who relies on rushing yardage to move the chains. James Conner won’t do much either.

RECAP: I’m fine with backing teams favored by a high number, provided three things are confirmed: 1) There’s a massive difference between the teams in talent, which is true in this case. 2) The big favorite is healthy. This is another box we can check. 3) The big favorite will be focused.

I’m not so sure about that last one. Following wins against the Eagles and Seahawks, the 49ers have this “easy” contest before going up against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. They also beat the Cardinals earlier in the year, so what’s the motivation here? Yes, the 49ers need to keep winning to achieve the No. 1 seed, but they probably think they can beat the Cardinals with one hand tied behind their back.

Meanwhile, this is Arizona’s Super Bowl. Thus, I could see a surprisingly close game. I like the Cardinals to cover, though betting them is another story because I don’t have anything to go off of outside of the motivational angle, which hasn’t been as fruitful this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a decent amount of sharp money on the Cardinals, which is not surprising.

SATURDAY NOTES: Something interesting on the injury report is that Kyler Murray popped up with a thumb injury. He practiced fully, but there is some cause for concern. Before you load up on the 49ers, however, note that they’ll be without both Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave, while Dre Greenlaw and Charvarius Ward barely practiced all week.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t understand why Deebo Samuel’s receiving number is so low. He’s gone over the 57.5-yard prop in each of his past four games, and he’s going up against an Arizona defense that has allowed the seventh-most production to outside receivers. The best number is over 57.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I worry about Kyler Murray’s thumb injury. Maybe it’s not going to be a factor, but it’s still worrying to see him on the injury report out of nowhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers are healthier than anticipated, as Dre Greenlaw and Charvarius Ward will play despite missing practice time this week. I still would side with Arizona, but this could easily be a blowout. The sharps are on the Cardinals.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

Sandwich situation: After beating the Eagles and rival Seahawks, the 49ers have this “easy” game and then take on the Ravens on Monday Night Football.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals. Calculated Spread: 49ers -11.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -13.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Big lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 66% (126,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

  • History: Cardinals have won 12 of the last 19 meetings.
  • Brock Purdy is 16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS.
  • Cardinals are 32-26 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.
  • Cardinals are 46-32 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 15 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 20
    Cardinals +12 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Deebo Samuel over 57.5 receiving yards -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$115
    49ers 45, Cardinals 29

    Washington Redskins (4-9) at Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
    Line: Rams by 7. Total: 49.

    Sunday, Dec. 17, 4:05 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Breaking down this matchup is rather simple. The Redskins have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Rams have an emerging aerial assault, buoyed by the improved health of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, and Cooper Kupp. There will be passing fireworks in this game. The end.

    I don’t know how much more I need to explain. The Redskins have surrendered the most big gains in the passing game, and the Rams’ primary receivers specialize in yards after the catch. Stafford was hurt several weeks ago, but his health has improved. He just went toe to toe with the Ravens, and this is much easier of a matchup.

    The only thing the Redskins do well on this side of the ball is stop the run. However, we’ve seen Williams have success in tough spots because he’s so talented. He’ll also generate aerial yardage against a Washington team that has surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing backs this season.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins won’t be able to contain the Rams at all, so the question is whether they’ll be able to keep up on the scoreboard. We’ve seen them do this against the Eagles, but they’ve faltered versus the Cowboys and Dolphins.

    Dallas and Miami have top-10 defenses, while Philadelphia’s defense is 31st, so that would at least explain the discrepancy. There’s more nuance to this matchup because the Rams are 14th in defense. Los Angeles has allowed big passing performances to outside receivers this year – including last week versus Zay Flowers – so that should give Washington some hope. Terry McLaurin has been a big disappointment, but perhaps he’ll finally have the breakout game his fantasy owners have been awaiting. I also expect a big showing from Logan Thomas because the Rams are horrendous versus tight ends.

    The Rams are better versus the run than the pass. They just limited the Baltimore backs, and they’ll have similar success against the Redskins runners. And unlike Washington, Los Angeles tends to play well against backs that function as receivers.

    RECAP: The Rams will be able to throw all over the Redskins. However, given the issues the Rams have in the secondary, there’s a decent chance that this game looks more like the Eagles-Redskins tilts than the Cowboys-Redskins or Dolphins-Redskins matchups that we’ve seen recently.

    Also, there are motivational angles to consider as well. The Rams are in a tough spot. They need to win this game, but they also have to prepare for a critical battle against the Saints in four days. Not that the Saints are some goliath, but New Orleans, like Los Angeles, is chasing a wild card berth, so that game could have some major playoff implications. The Rams may just take this game for granted.

    I like the Redskins to cover. I think it’s telling that this line hasn’t quite hit -7, yet all the public money is coming in on the Rams. It’s almost as if the sportsbooks are inviting all of this action on Los Angeles for some reason.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on the Redskins quite a bit throughout the weeks, but they haven’t touched them yet. Perhaps they’re waiting on a possible +7.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Brian Robinson is out for the Redskins, but the only significant injury in this game is to Rob Havenstein, who is questionable after missing every practice during the week. His absence will make it easier for the Redskins to cover.

    PLAYER PROPS: Prior to Thanksgiving, Logan Thomas had a stretch where he logged four or more receptions in five consecutive games. He should be able to reach that number against a Rams defense that can’t stop tight ends at all. The best number is over 3.5 +102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Adam Schefter reported that Aaron Donald is likely to play despite the downgrade on Saturday. If Donald is out, I’m moving this to five units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Aaron Donald will play, but he could always get knocked out early because soft-tissue injuries can linger. I still love the Redskins, especially now that +7 -110 is available at Bookmaker. The sharps have not touched this game.

    The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

    The Rams have a big game against the Saints in four days.

    The Spread. Edge: Rams. Calculated Spread: Rams -8.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -6.5.

    Computer Model: Rams -9.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

    Easy money for the public.

    Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 85% (158,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Rams.

  • Ron Rivera is 4-8 ATS off a bye.
  • Opening Line: Rams -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Rams 28, Redskins 27
    Redskins +7 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$440
    Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Logan Thomas over 3.5 receptions +102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
    Rams 28, Cardinals 20

    Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)
    Line: Bills by 2. Total: 49.

    Sunday, Dec. 17, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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    BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills said something odd to start the season. They noted that they weren’t going to run Josh Allen very much until late in the season in order to preserve him. I’m not saying the strategy didn’t make sense, but I don’t know why they would reveal their plans to everyone. They followed their strategy, as Allen was reluctant to scramble in the first two-and-a-half months.

    This has changed recently. Allen has been running more, and it’s no coincidence that the Bills have begun winning again. Allen’s mobility could give the Bills an edge because the Cowboys will have to worry about his scrambling ability in addition to the passing. We just saw Geno Smith exploit some vulnerabilities that Dallas has in the secondary, so we could see Allen have similar success as the Cowboys try to defend him as a runner.

    Don’t count on the Bills running very well. They don’t have any success pounding the ball with their backs, and Dallas is great versus the rush. However, the Cowboys can be beaten by running backs catching passes out of the backfield, which would be James Cook’s specialty. New offensive coordinator Joe Brady is utilizing Cook masterfully in that regard, as Cook logged 83 receiving yards in last week’s win over the Chiefs.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Speaking of receiving backs, Tony Pollard has a great matchup. The Bills have surrendered the fourth-most receiving yardage to running backs, so Pollard will have some big gains in the passing attack.

    However, there’s reason for pessimism regarding Dallas’ offense as a whole in this game. This is because Buffalo’s biggest weakness on this side of the ball, or really any side of the ball, is stopping the run. This is one thing the Cowboys do poorly. They can’t run block at all for Pollard. They’ve even struggled to do so in very favorable matchups.

    The Cowboys, conversely, want to air it out. This will be problematic against a Buffalo defense that generates lots of pressure on the quarterback, and as a consequence, puts the clamps on outside receivers. Then again, the Bills allow lots of production to the slot, which is where CeeDee Lamb resides, so it’s not like Dallas’ aerial attack will be completely shut down.

    RECAP: I like Buffalo to cover the spread. The Bills seem to match up well against the Cowboys. Dallas can be beaten aerially by Allen, and it won’t be able to exploit Buffalo’s greatest weakness, which is the run defense.

    Furthermore, this is a tough spot for the Cowboys, who are coming off their biggest victory of the season. Everyone said that Dallas couldn’t defeat teams with winning records, yet it did just that in a statement game on national TV. Now, the Cowboys have to play in the elements against an opponent playing in a must-win situation.

    The only downside to this pick is that there isn’t great line value with the Bills. I’m sure most people are wondering why Buffalo is even favored. Well, the Bills are favored for a reason, and it’s to keep all the money from pouring in on them, as it would if they were a home underdog. I’ll be on Buffalo for at least a couple of units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of sharp action coming in on Buffalo, which is not surprising to see. During our Tuesday video, a reader asked, “Why is Buffalo favored?” The answer to that question is that the sportsbooks want you to bet Dallas.

    SATURDAY NOTES: If you look at the injury report, you’ll see that four Cowboys have been tagged with an illness, including Micah Parsons and Brandin Cooks. If the flu is circulating through the locker room, will the Cowboys have the motivation to play in rainy Buffalo after such a big win?

    PLAYER PROPS: Stefon Diggs has had some tough performances lately, but that can be attributed to difficult matchups. This one is quite easy; Dallas has allowed the second-most production to outside receivers, and some of the players are dealing with an illness. The best number is over 66.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Bills, as the Cowboys are in a rough spot while dealing with the flu.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Dallas players with illnesses will play, but that doesn’t mean that they are healthy. The sharps are on the Bills, and so am I for four units. This spread has moved to -2.5 in many sportsbooks, but you can still get -2 -110 at Caesars and BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Bills -1.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.

    Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

    Plenty of action on the Bills.

    Percentage of money on Buffalo: 71% (155,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

  • Cowboys are 24-14 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.
  • Bills are 28-43 ATS in their last 71 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Opening Line: Bills -1.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 17 mph.

  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Bills 26, Cowboys 22
    Bills -2 (4 Units) – BetMGM/Caesars — Correct; +$400
    Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Stefon Diggs over 66.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
    Bills 31, Cowboys 10

    Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
    Line: Ravens by 4. Total: 40.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 17, 8:20 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I was having a conversation with someone knowledgeable about the NFL – one team in particular – and when the subject of the Jaguars was brought up, I told him that the metrics had Jacksonville slated in the 20s. He questioned the metrics, but then I had to remind him about how poor Jacksonville’s defense has been. In consecutive weeks, the Jaguars have made Jake Browning and Joe Flacco look like Joe Montana and John Elway.

    This is not some fluky, short-term output. The Jaguars have been horrendous against the pass all year. Quarterbacks of every sort have torched them, so that obviously bodes well for Lamar Jackson. In the past, I would not have been as bullish on Jackson’s chances in the event that Mark Andrews were sidelined, but his receiving corps is much better now than it’s been in recent years. Zay Flowers is a legitimate threat, while Odell Beckham Jr. is starting to look healthier. Isaiah Likely just had a great performance, which is key because Jacksonville is very poor versus tight ends.

    The Ravens won’t be able to run the ball as well, but it’s not like they really rely on that aspect of their offense anyway. They couldn’t move the chains on the ground against the Rams, yet they still scored 31 points in regulation.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It was absolutely shocking that Trevor Lawrence was able to play last week. When Lawrence suffered a gruesome ankle injury the preceding Monday night, it seemed like he would be out for a few weeks. Yet, he was back on the field just six days later in an unbelievable feat of durability.

    Granted, Lawrence wasn’t quite 100 percent, but given his Wolverine-level of healing, he might be completely healthy for this contest. If so, you have to like his chances against a Baltimore secondary that was just abused by Matthew Stafford and his talented receivers. Lawrence has some talented receivers at his disposal, so they’ll be able to score a healthy number of points.

    The Rams were also able to move the chains on the ground via Kyren Williams. Baltimore has been just mediocre versus the rush this year, so Travis Etienne will have a chance for a decent performance.

    RECAP: I don’t think this a good spot to bet the Ravens. I like that they’re going against an overrated Jacksonville squad – it might be a while until everyone figures out how horrific this defense is – but Baltimore is in a poor motivational situation. The Ravens just won in overtime. After this game, they battle the 49ers on Monday Night Football, and then they get the Dolphins and rival Steelers. I know that the Jaguars are a divisional leader, but they’re two games back of Baltimore in the standings. I just don’t know how motivated the Ravens will be for this game.

    I hate solely relying on motivation because that’s all I have for this game. I’d love to fade the Jaguars like we’ve done the past two weeks for multi-unit plays, but I can’t say I love the Ravens’ chances of covering this spread if they’re not going to be focused.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp action in Jacksonville’s favor dropped this line from +3.5 to +3. The Ravens are much more appealing at -3, but I don’t think I can quite get there.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars will be missing two defensive backs (Tyson Campbell, Andre Cisco), while some of their offensive linemen were limited in practice this week. I think I will be on Baltimore.

    PLAYER PROPS: Jacksonville has been gashed by tight ends recently, while Isaiah Likely has been on fire. I like him to go over 32.5 receiving yards. The best number for that is 32.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link. By the way, no same-game parlay for this contest because the weather could be bad, making it difficult to evaluate a lot of the props.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on any weather updates. Currently, there’s a chance of rain with 21-mph winds, which is not an ideal game environment.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The weather forecast has remained the same, so I won’t be building a same-game parlay. There’s no sharp action on either side. The best line is -4 -108 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

    Look-ahead Alert: The Ravens battle the 49ers on Monday Night Football after this. They then get the Dolphins and rival Steelers.

    The Spread. Edge: Jaguars. Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.

    Computer Model: Ravens -3.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 59% (288,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

  • Jaguars are 60-104 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 59 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 23 mph.

  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Ravens 26, Jaguars 20
    Ravens -4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Isaiah Likely over 32.5 receiving yards -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
    Ravens 23, Jaguars 7

    Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 45.

    Monday, Dec. 18, 8:15 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the greatest city in the world, nay, the universe, nay, the galaxy! I know this is really Seattle, but there are so many Philadelphia super fans here that we have taken over the city of Seattle and their dumb Supersonics football team. But as everyone knows, I am the biggest super fan of them all! I’ve taken precautions if the Seahawks take the lead. I’ve learned my lesson from the 49ers and Cowboys games. Let’s just say the Seahawks will meet their end if they dare defeat my Philadelphia Eagles!

    Emmitt: Thanks, Strago, this remound me of the time I was a students at the College of University of Florida State University College of North Florida State College University Florida State University of University College. I learn a lot of lessons when I was in school. This include the subject of calculus, which we all have to take if we play football. It was a real hard test. The one question we have in the class is how you spell calculus. My guess are K, A, L, P, K, M, 2, Y, O, O, S. Calculus. I belief this is correct. Spelling are like riding a tricycle, the bike with four wheel.

    Reilly: Emmitt, you’re way ahead of me because Mother says calculus is the devil and I can never learn it. I’m almost afraid to ask what it is because then the devil might punish me by taking away my Nick Foles bobbleheads.

    Tollefson: Don’t worry Kevin, it’s not too scary. Here’s an example: If X is the number of women you’ve kidnapped and enslaved, and the limit of X approaches zero, then you need to go out and kidnap plenty of women because you do not want to be near that limit.

    Reilly: That’s way too confusing, Tolly. I haven’t been able to talk to women before because they were also the devil, but Mother lifted the ban because she bet the ladies at the hair salon that her poopykins could date a more popular singer than Taylor Swift. So, because this is an Eagles game, we’re bringing in a singer from Philly to audition for me. Guys, I have never heard of this singer, but she looks lovely. Her name is Willa Crosby. Willa, how are you, and will you allow me to force you into being my girlfriend?

    Willa Crosby: Oh, I am so honored to be here, and I am totally a beautiful singer girl. Please let me know if you’d love to hear one of my songs.

    Reilly: I would love to hear your songs. When I force you to be my girlfriend, I’m going to need you to sing to me, especially when I make poo. Mother sings to me to make the poo go through.

    Willa Crosby: OK, here it goes, I hope you like it. I am totally a lady singer la la la, I love Jell-O, la la la.

    Reilly: Wow, that makes me want to poo right now! Our new sideline reporter wants to chime in.

    Charissa Thompson: That’s right, Kevin, I have breaking news that an old, Jell-O-loving pervert has snuck into this booth, pretending to be a young pop star, so he can do something naughty to the virgin in the booth. Also, one of the people in this booth is a fire-breathing lizard. You can trust my sideline reportering, guys. Back to you, Kevin!

    Reilly: Yeah, right. Last week you said there was a kraken in the locker room that ate half the team. There’s no way this is real. Let’s just ask John Feasterman, our great senator president, and my close, personal friend, because if anyone knows the truth, it’s him!

    John Fetterman: Good afternoon, Indianapolis, it’s your fellow vampire hunter here. What if you never go into the clock tower? You go up the clock tower, you go down the clock tower. You don’t need to climb the clock tower. I bought party hats for everyone because it’s Samuel jacobs’ birthday with a lower-case J. Who is Samuel jacobs? No one knows, but it’s not his birthday. What are these party hats doing here? Armadillo cupcakes on three! One, two, three, hamburgers!

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Willa Crosby, you are obviously beautiful with your natural-looking blond hair and your olive skin, and your gray beard stubble. I wouldn’t listen to Charissa Thompson. She’s obviously jealous of your beauty!

    Willa Crosby: Oh, thank you, handsome. Would you like this beverage I made? I put the pudding in the pudding cup, and nothing else, I swear.

    Reilly: Yes, but have you made more beverages for everyone? I’m sure our great president, Joe Biden, would like one. Remember, he got so many votes despite not campaigning at all and showing up to rallies with like 40 people present who were all honking from their cars.

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you pig-filled postage stamp, if you want to challenge me to a squat competition, you can meet me outside in the parking lot and we can have some words like I had with Cinnamon Toast Crunch and his bad boys when I threatened to strangle those roaches with my chain. But on to more important things. I agree with Bill here that putting stuff in the drinks of women is a good thing, especially if they’re not willing like Sally by the playground. Sally is a classy woman, one who crosses her legs while she learns how to count to three. I approached Sally and asked her if she’d want to take a shower with Soap Time Joe, which is what they called me in the Brazilian churches where I was raised in good old Scranton, Pa. But here’s the deal: You get Sally to drink one of those juices you give her except the juice box they have those things, the things you call them where you put the thing in the whole and you drink out of em. Then you put the pill in the drink, and Sally goes out like a light and when she wakes up, she is in the shower with you which was the whole plan and the plan finally came together.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that if you take the pill, you wake up in the shower, but I don’t know what kind of pill Sleepy Joe is taking, but he’s not talking about my pill, which we released at record speed, thank you, thank you, and frankly, no one else could have released a pill faster than me, and if you don’t believe me, look at all the cameras turning off, the cameras don’t want you to see that Trump was right and Sleepy Joe is doing nothing but sleeping, so he must not be taking my pill, which will cause heart attacks and cure nothing, but it’s still the best pill anyone could have come up with using warp speed, which is a name that, frankly, I made up, and they even said, “President, Sir, you released pills faster than anyone could have ever imagined, and you’re the greatest and most handsome president ever,” and I said, “Thank you, I thought I was in the top 10 but not number one, and now I know, and now it’s time to nickname my warp speed medical technology,” and I made the greatest scientific breakthrough in the medical industry, they said it couldn’t be done, but I made history, the best history anyone has ever heard of.


    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Willa Crosby, I think you are my dream woman. You are beautiful, you like Jell-O as much as I do, and you sing well enough for me to make poo. Please let me- no, Tolly, no, stop trying to kidnap her!

    Tollefson: Sorry, Kevin, I need a female slave who can not only cook and clean naked for me, but can also sing enough for me to make poo. I- wait a second, Willa’s hair fell off. It’s- it’s Bill Cosby!

    Bill Cosby: And I would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for you meddling kids!

    Tollefson: Mr. Cosby, it’s an honor! Please, tell me, if you’re at a bar, and you want to kidnap all the women there at once, how do you do it? Please teach me!

    Reilly: Tolly, stop it, the woman of my dreams turned out to be Bill Cosby all along! New Daddy, can you force Bill Cosby to put on the wig so he can become Willa Crosby again?

    Jay Cutler: What is this request, even?

    Reilly: I don’t know, New Daddy, but I’m grasping at straws!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about ways to drink out of a cup, Kevin. You mentioned straws, Kevin. That’s a great way to drink out of a cup, Kevin. Then there’s pressing your lips on the cup and having liquid pour into your mouth, Kevin. And then-


    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles have had issues with their defense all year, but their offense was a big problem against Dallas this past Sunday night. Philadelphia couldn’t keep pace with the Cowboys because they lost three fumbles throughout the game.

    These mental mistakes are at least correctable, so the Eagles could play better in this game. They’ll be going up against a Seattle defense that has just been torched by the San Francisco and Dallas aerial attacks the past two weeks. I can’t see anything changing in that regard heading into this contest.

    In addition to being able to torch the opposing defense, Jalen Hurts will be able to scramble effectively. The Seahawks have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, allowing the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith was a surprise scratch last week, but he seemed close to playing. I imagine he’ll be available with an extra day of rest. Smith’s presence would obviously be ideal for the Seahawks’ chances of pulling the upset, but then again, it may not even matter.

    Yes, it may not matter. That’s how horrible Philadelphia’s secondary is. The Eagles are 31st in defensive EPA, and they happen to be strong against the run, so that should tell you how pitiful they are versus the pass. Sam Howell looked like Joe Montana against them in two matchups, yet he couldn’t produce much offense against the Cowboys or Redskins.

    The Eagles are especially poor versus slot receivers. This could have maybe saved them earlier in the year, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been coming on lately. I don’t trust the Eagles to deal with D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett either, so they could be torched by all three.

    RECAP: This game almost mirrors the Cowboys-Eagles affair from last week. I thought the Eagles might be the right side because they were a good team coming off an embarrassing defeat, but I didn’t bet them because they matched up so poorly against the Cowboys. This also applies to their matchup versus the Seahawks, except they’re favored on the road this time.

    The Eagles won’t be able to stop the Seahawks, especially if Smith plays. They’ll also score, but their offense hasn’t been as sharp in recent weeks, so it’ll be difficult to keep up in a shootout. Thus, Seattle could be the third team in a row to defeat Philadelphia.

    I like the Seahawks to cover. I hate to stand in the way of a good team trying to rebound from an ugly loss, but this spread might just be way off. The EPA metrics say that Seattle should be favored by 2.5! That’s how much they hate the Eagles defense.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new yet because neither of these teams have practiced yet. Check back Saturday for a more detailed update.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith was limited in both practices thus far. There’s no real way of knowing if he’ll play, but given that this line collapsed to +3, someone thinks he’ll be able to go.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: News broke that Jalen Hurts has been downgraded to questionable after his illness worsened. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all the +3 lines, with +2.5 being the best spread now.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: We’re still waiting on Geno Smith’s status. Ian Rapoport said that Smith is a longshot to play tonight, but Rapoport’s reporting track record has been hit or miss. I’m going to be on the Seahawks either way, as either quarterback will be able to exploit Philadelphia’s secondary with the three steallar receivers. Unfortunately, I can’t post a prop bet or a same-game parlay at the moment because the odds will be impacted by Seattle’s quarterbacking decision.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It seems as though Drew Lock will start, but that’s not definite yet. I was hoping to get a Lock announcement so we’d get a better line than +4.5. I like the Seahawks, even if Lock is starting, as they’ll be able to shred Philadelphia’s horrible secondary with their talented receivers. There’s been sharp action on both sides, with the late money coming in on the Eagles. The best line is +5 -110 at FanDuel. This will be a three-unit pick. I’m also going to take Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 43.5 receiving yards for one unit. The best line is also at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: . Calculated Spread: Eagles -4.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.

    Computer Model: Seahawks -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

    People still love the Eagles.

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 81% (55,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

  • Eagles are 7-16 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.
  • Seahawks are 20-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -4.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Rain, 46 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Eagles 24
    Seahawks +5 (3 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$300
    Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 43.5 receiving yards -110 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
    Seahawks 20, Eagles 17

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 15 – Early Games

    Chargers at Raiders  |  Vikings at Bengals  |  Steelers at Colts  |  Broncos at Lions  |  Falcons at Panthers  |  Bears at Browns  |  Buccaneers at Packers  |  Texans at Titans  |  Giants at Saints  |  Jets at Dolphins  |  Chiefs at Patriots  | 

    Comments on the 2023 NFL Season’s Games and Picks

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    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

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    Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games

    On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results