NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2023 – Early Games

Myles Garrett
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
2023 NFL Picks: 99-98-6 (-$7,060)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 10, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14 Early Games

New England Patriots (2-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Line: Steelers by 5. Total: 30.

Thursday, Dec. 7, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

i> Week 13 Analysis: Back to losing after a great Week 12. The picks themselves were fine – we hit our top two bets on Sunday – but the props killed us after doing so well in the previous 3-4 weeks. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Cowboys, 4 units (loss): I’m not sure where this output came from the Seahawks, who had been huge disappointments the previous two months. They nearly lost to the Redskins in an obvious rebound game following their blowout loss versus Baltimore. They had trouble putting Arizona away. I don’t get how they engaged in a shootout with the Cowboys.

Jets, 3 units (loss): The Jets outgained the Falcons by 60 yards and averaged 0.9 more yards per play, but once again found a way to lose.

Titans, 2 units (loss): This was only two units, but man, what a bad beat. The Titans outgained the Colts, but allowed nine points off two blocked punts. Yet, they still scored the game-winning touchdown at the end of regulation – except they missed the go-ahead extra point! They then scored first in overtime, but surrendered a touchdown on the next possession. This season has been so brutal with these horrible beats.

Dolphins, 5 units (win): Thank goodness we had this easy play. I’m not sure why the sharps were pounding the Redskins.

Panthers, 4 units (win): We got lucky with a back-door touchdown and two-point conversion, but then again, did the crappy Buccaneers really deserve to be favored by more than three with all of their injuries?

Eagles, 3 units (loss): Wow, what a dumb pick on my part. I was anti-Eagles all year, yet decided to bet against them versus the best team in the NFL. Derp.

Bengals, 5 units (win): What an awesome win.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Packers +6: I actually had the Packers down as a four-unit pick earlier in the week, but removed my units when I saw the final injury report. In hindsight, it wasn’t that bad. I should have wagered two units at the very least on Green Bay.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: This game is going to be quite the doozy. Actually, it would have been somewhat offensively promising for the Steelers if Kenny Pickett were healthy, but that’s not the case. Pickett got hurt in the second quarter of last week’s loss to Arizona, forcing Mitchell Trubisky into action. It’ll be Trubisky again in this contest.

Trubisky sucks, but so does New England’s secondary. The Patriots allow the sixth-most production to outside receivers, so this obviously bodes well for Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, provided that Trubisky can actually get the ball to them.

The Steelers would love to keep the ball out of Trubisky’s hands as much as possible, so they’ll feed the ball to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The problem in that regard is that the Patriots sport a top-10 run defense. They just put the clamps on Austin Ekeler, so they won’t have much of a problem limiting Harris and Warren.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Pickett wasn’t the only prominent Steeler to suffer an injury last week. T.J. Watt also went down. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to play, but he could be sidelined or limited on such a short week.

If that’s the case, the Patriots will have a chance to sustain some drives. The Steelers are a completely different team without Watt. They were 8-2 and sixth against the pass last year with Watt and 1-6 and 30th versus the pass without him. Bad quarterbacks had success against them, so there is some hope for Bailey Zappe, or whomever Bill Belichick decides to start at quarterback this week. It’ll also help if Demario Douglas can return from his concussion.

If Davis misses this game, he won’t be the only significant Patriot player to be sidelined. Rhamondre Stevenson will be as well after suffering an injury last week. However, Ezekiel Elliott stepped in and performed well. Perhaps he’ll pick up where James Conner left off versus Pittsburgh’s defense last week.

RECAP: What an unappealing game to bet. Do you wager on Trubisky as a five-point favorite, or do you back the Patriots, who are a long shot to even score a touchdown?

In theory, I like the Patriots. Their defense has been terrific recently, and they should be able to handle whatever the Steelers throw at them with Trubisky. And speaking of Trubisky, backup quarterbacks tend to do poorly against defenses ranked in the top 12 of EPA. The Patriots, who just limited the Chargers offense to six points, are ranked 10th in defense. Furthermore, the Steelers are just 35-45 against the spread as favorites of four or more under Mike Tomlin since the lockout. There’s also sharp money on New England.

However, I am going to end up on the Steelers. This is a short week, so it favors the better team, which is Pittsburgh, especially if Douglas is sidelined again. Also, the Patriots have a backup quarterback versus a top-12 defense as well. I also like the subtle line value; the advance spread was -6, but it has since been bumped down to -5. The Steelers are the play, but you couldn’t pay me to bet this game.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Demario Douglas is out again. I would have considered the Patriots if Douglas were healthy, but they won’t have any viable receivers against a top-12 defense. I’m on the Steelers, but I don’t want to bet them at this number.

PLAYER PROPS: Ezekiel Elliott’s 2.5-receptions prop is way too low. He had four catches last week, and he wasn’t even the primary back the entire game. Bailey Zappe loves checking the ball down, so Elliott should be in line for four or five receptions. The best vig is -131 at Caesars.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to add Ezekiel Elliott 3+ receptions with Jaylen Warren 3+ receptions, Pat Freiermuth under 27.5 receiving yards and Hunter Henry 2+ receptions. Najee Harris is banged up, so Warren could see an uptick in production. The Patriots allow the fourth-fewest yards to tight ends. And with Demario Douglas out, Hunter Henry will get more targets. This $30 parlay pays $218.30. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Patriots at +6. I get it because this is a high line for Mitchell Trubisky, but I still like the Steelers with New England down its top three receivers (DeVante Parker is out, too.) If you want to bet the Steelers, the best line out there is -5 -110 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Steelers -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 65% (400,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

  • Steelers are 42-21 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 35.
  • Weather: Clear, 38 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 13, Patriots 6
    Steelers -5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 30 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Ezekiel Elliott over 2.5 receptions -131 (1 Unit) – Caesars — Correct; +$100
    Same-Game Parlay: Ezekiel Elliott 3+ receptions, Jaylen Warren 3+ receptions, Pat Freiermuth under 27.5 receiving yards, Hunter Henry 2+ receptions +727 (0.3 Units to win 2.2) – FanDuel — Correct; +$220
    Patriots 21, Steelers 18

    Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5)
    Line: Browns by 1.5. Total: 33.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

    My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars received some great news on Tuesday morning. Trevor Lawrence suffered a gruesome injury against the Bengals on Monday night. He couldn’t put any weight on his leg and slammed his helmet in frustraton upon getting hurt. It seemed like there was a chance that he would be done for the season. Luckily, it’s just a high ankle sprain, so Lawrence will be back after a couple of weeks.

    In the meantime, C.J. Beathard will start. Beathard is an experienced backup, but no amount of playing time will prepare him for Cleveland’s defense. The Browns put immense pressure on the quarterback, which is troublesome for Beathard because he’ll be missing two tackles after Walker Little got hurt Monday night. Cam Robinson was already sidelined, so Myles Garrett and company will hound Beathard all afternoon.

    The Jaguar skill players will be limited as well. Travis Etienne won’t see many running lanes against a solid run defense. Meanwhile, the Browns play very well against outside receivers and tight ends, especially the latter, so they will be able to limit Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram. They probably won’t have to worry about Christian Kirk either, as Kirk was another Jaguar who got hurt Monday night.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns will also be starting a backup quarterback. We don’t know if it’ll be Joe Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson yet. Whichever quarterback it is will have success against Jacksonville’s defense, following the footsteps of Jake Browning.

    It wasn’t too surprising to see Browning thrive against the Jaguars, who have the NFL’s 30th-ranked defense according to EPA. Jacksonville is especially horrible versus outside receivers and tight ends, so the Browns will ideally be able to utilize Amari Cooper and David Njoku heavily. The one issue is that Cooper may not play because of a concussion.

    The Browns will be able to utilize their running backs well, too. Jacksonville is extremely tough versus the run, but it allows a ton of receiving yardage to opposing backs.

    RECAP: I was going to bet Cleveland +3 versus the Lawrence-led Jaguars. I loved getting the better defense – by a wide margin – as a home underdog, and I was also going to tell you that the Browns are underrated. They lost by double digits versus the Rams, but they had a real chance of winning that game before a missed extra point that would have tied the game and some ensuing turnovers put the game out of reach.

    The funny thing is, I would have made the Browns a 1.5-point favorite over the Jaguars with Lawrence in the lineup. Yet, we’re almost getting the same number without Lawrence, which seems like incredible value. And speaking of value, the EPA metrics had Cleveland as five-point favorites over Jacksonville with Lawrence. Yes, that’s correct. The team that lost to Browning at home had no business being a road favorite of three.

    Instead, we now have a matchup where the Browns are favored by a field goal. It sucks that we’re no longer getting four key numbers, but I still like Cleveland. Both teams are using their backup quarterbacks, but one has a distinct advantage. Cleveland’s backup will be facing a 30th-ranked defense that Browning just dominated. Conversely, Jacksonville’s backup will be battling an elite defense that will be better this week with Garrett’s improved health.

    It oddly feels like there’s less room for error with the Browns being favored over Beathard, but this spread just isn’t high enough because the public doesn’t recognize how overrated Jacksonville is. This is going to be a medium-sized wager.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk both missed Wednesday’s practice. Amari Cooper was out of practice as well. I’m not expecting any of these players to play.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It’s remarkable to think that Trevor Lawrence has a chance to play in this game. He’s considered a long shot, but it could happen, so I wouldn’t lock in Cleveland just yet. Christian Kirk, by the way, has been placed on injured reserve.

    PLAYER PROPS: I’ll pass on these props for now because we currently don’t know who’s starting at quarterback for either team.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence is starting, which is just insane. There’s no way he’s 100 percent, which makes Cleveland very appealing. Fortunately, the line has fallen in the wake of the news. The sharps were on Cleveland earlier in the week. The best spread is -1.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Browns. Calculated Spread: Browns -4.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.

    Computer Model: Browns -8.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

    Tons of action on the Browns.

    Percentage of money on Cleveland: 73% (102,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Browns.

  • Jaguars are 60-103 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Likely rain, 43 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Jaguars 13
    Browns -1.5 -108 (3 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$300
    Over 30.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Browns 31, Jaguars 27

    Los Angeles Rams (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
    Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 40.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 22-20 ATS.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

  • Cowboys -9
  • Jaguars -10
  • Lions -4
  • Titans +1
  • Dallas was a huge loss for the public on Thursday night. Sunday was even for the public. Monday night was a huge loss.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

  • Broncos +3
  • Ravens -7
  • Packers -6.5
  • Bears +3
  • Two underdogs is surprising, especially the Bears. Nothing else is too shocking.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams look like a completely different team than the one we saw struggle to move the ball versus Seattle’s poor defense a few weeks ago. The Rams generated some great offensive production last week despite battling Cleveland’s terrific defense. Matthew Stafford’s improved health and Kyren Williams’ return to action have been the catalysts behind this superior output.

    The Ravens may seem like another tough matchup, but there might be some holes for the Rams to exploit. Baltimore is just mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, and it allows its fair share of receiving yards to opposing backs. This bodes well for Williams, who gives the Rams a legitimate threat in the backfield, unlike what they possessed with Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman splitting touches.

    Williams can put Stafford into favorable down-and-distance situations, so the Rams should be able to move the ball aerially. The Ravens surrender top-10 production to outside receivers, so Stafford will be able to successfully target Puka Nacua. Stafford also shouldn’t see much pressure – Baltimore has the league’s ninth-worst pressure rate – which is great news for Stafford, given his great dichotomy between getting pressured and being kept clean.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While the Rams have improved offensively, the Ravens have gone the other way. The reason for this is Mark Andrews’ injury. Isaiah Likely is an athletic player with plenty of promise, but he’s nothing close to what Baltimore possessed with Andrews. This is huge for this matchup because the Rams are weakest to tight ends on this side of the ball.

    The Ravens didn’t have great offensive success when battling the Chargers prior to their bye, and they could have similar issues versus Los Angeles. The Rams have allowed a low rushing total to opposing quarterbacks despite battling Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott this season. They’ve been able to stymie Murray pretty well over the years, so they can keep Lamar Jackson contained.

    Jackson won’t be pressured all that much despite Aaron Donald’s presence, however, so he’ll be able to throw on the Rams a bit. It won’t be a great performance though, given that the Rams are in the upper half of limiting production to opposing receivers.

    RECAP: The Ravens could have been justified as a touchdown favorite over the Rams a few weeks ago. Back then, Stafford was playing with torn ligaments in his thumb, while Kyren Williams was sidelined. Meanwhile, Jackson still had Andrews at his disposal.

    Much has changed since then. Stafford is now healthy, and he has a terrific running game to lean on with Williams in the backfield once again. Meanwhile, the Ravens, who had issues putting away the Chargers the last time we saw them, are missing their top passing-attack threat without Andrews, who would be able to dominate this matchup. These teams are definitely much closer than seven points. This line should be closer to -5 or -5.5, so it’s great that we’re getting all the key numbers with the Rams.

    It sucks we’re not getting +7.5 anymore. The sharps took care of that, bringing the line down to +7. I still really like the Rams at this price, as they should be in for a back-door cover even though I don’t think they’ll need it.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The weather is expected to be poor this Sunday – rain and 20-mph winds – which favors an underdog in a high spread like this. The Rams should have success moving the ball with Kyren Williams and short passes to Puka Nacua.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The weather isn’t expected to be as bad as anticipated – thunderstorms, 15-mph winds – and there’s nothing on the injury report worth noting except for Tyler Higbee being doubtful.

    PLAYER PROPS: Tight ends have crushed the Rams all year, at least prior to Week 13. I don’t know why David Njoku didn’t get there, but I’m going back to the well with Isaiah Likely. The best receiving prop for him is over 30.5 receiving yards -125 at PointsBet.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Athletic is reporting that there’s a flu bug circulating throughout the Ravens’ locker room, which makes the Rams more appealing. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +7.5 -110 at PointsBet.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Rams. Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

    Computer Model: Ravens -5.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

    Slight lean on the Ravens.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 63% (170,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Rams.

  • Lamar Jackson is 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Rain, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Rams 17
    Rams +7.5 (4 Units) – PointsBet — Correct; +$400
    Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Isaiah Likely over 30.5 receiving yards -125 (1 Unit) – PointsBet — Correct; +$100
    Ravens 37, Rams 31

    Detroit Lions (9-3) at Chicago Bears (4-8)
    Line: Lions by 3.5. Total: 43.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

    HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from our friend John Capricotti, who often says that spreads don’t matter:

    It’s true about virtue signalers. Every one who virtue signals is hiding something horrible, which is why they need to virtue signal. Be careful of these people.

    Here’s someone else commenting about a game I didn’t bet:

    We have more from Jackie Poo:

    I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that this Jackie Poo character is Nephtali Diaz, but there’s no way of knowing for sure. I remember having the same sort of “conversations” with him when he didn’t understand that I could change my mind about a game until officially betting it.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: We just saw this matchup three weeks ago. The Bears went into Detroit as huge underdogs and nearly pulled the upset. In fact, they were winning the entire afternoon until Detroit engineered a late comeback.

    The Bears were able to establish a big lead by having Justin Fields run and throw all over Detroit. Passing the ball looked easy for Fields, who was up against a secondary that has really struggled of late. D.J. Moore had a monster game with seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.

    Fields also exploited Detroit’s inability to stop scrambling quarterbacks. This has been a multi-year weakness for the Lions, as they’ve struggled whenever going up against mobile quarterbacks. Fields scrambled 18 times for 104 rushing yards, so he could post similar stats in the rematch.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: Chicago’s defense was dreadful to start the year, but the unit has improved because of Montez Sweat’s presence and some previously injured players being available. The Bears have improved against the run throughout the season, which gives them a good chance to limit the Lions for most of the afternoon once again.

    However, the Bears have a big weakness on this side of the ball, and that would be their inability to defend slot receivers. They’ve surrendered the fourth-most production to slot receivers, which is troubling in a matchup versus Amon-Ra St. Brown. The talented receiver had a big game versus the Bears three weeks ago, and history should repeat itself.

    Chicago was at least able to keep Sam LaPorta in check in that game, limiting him to just three receptions. The Bears are just in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending tight ends, so this may have been a fluke. This is good news for the Lions in what is expected to be rainy and windy conditions.

    RECAP: Speaking of rainy and windy conditions, this is something that favors the Bears for two reasons. First, they’re going to have more success on the ground, thanks to Fields. Their run defense, as discussed, should be able to limit David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Second, Jared Goff is a quarterback with a great dichotomy when it comes to playing outside versus indoors. Goff has habitually struggled when playing outdoors, especially in poor conditions like we’re going to have in Chicago this Sunday.

    The Bears certainly have the matchup edges in this game, so they look great as a betting opportunity. And we haven’t touched on the spread yet, which is too high. Detroit -3.5 may not seem incorrect, but it is. It’s not a huge deal compared to my numbers, which say Detroit -2 is the right number. However, the EPA metrics think Chicago should be a two-point favorite! That’s five points of line value. If the metrics are correct, we’re getting a 17.2-percent marginal difference in favor of Chicago. In other words, if the EPA line is correct, we have a 67.2-percent change of winning our wager if we take the Bears (50 plus 17.2).

    With the revenge factor also in our favor, I’m going to bet a few units on the Bears. I was hoping to get the opening line of +4, but the sharps bet that rather quickly before I was able to analyze the matchup. Still, +3.5 seems pretty great.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alex Anzalone is practicing in full, which is a surprise because he was expected to be sidelined. Still, I love the Bears in this great matchup. The weather is expected to be poor as well.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions lost two key players in the trenches. Frank Ragnow is sidelined for this game, while stud defensive tackle Alim McNeil was placed on injured reserve. McNeil was the best player on Detroit’s defense not named Aidan Hutchinson, so this injury is enormous. I already loved the Bears, so this makes me like them even better. What’s better than five units? Eight. This is my Pick of the Month for November, as I didn’t use my Pick of the Month for November yet. I’m going to lock this in now with the +3.5 -118 at Bookmaker because most other sportsbooks have gone to +3 (BetMGM still has +3.5 -120 as well).

    PLAYER PROPS: D.J. Moore is the play in this game. Moore has played six full games with Justin Fields this year; five since the ugly opener in which the Bears didn’t look prepared to play at all for whatever reason. Moore has gone over the posted receiving yards total (71.5 yards) in four of those five games. Furthermore, the Lions allow top-10 production to outside receivers. The best number for this is over 71.5 yards -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: All the normal +3.5s are long gone. The best +3.5 available can be had for -126 vig at Bookmaker, which is worth it compared to +3 -110, as -127 is the breaking point according to the math. The sharps are on Chicago.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Bears. Calculated Spread: Lions -2.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -5.

    Computer Model: Bears -2.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Chicago: 57% (223,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bears.

  • History: Bears have won 7 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Lions -4.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Lions 17
    Bears +3.5 -118 (8 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$800
    Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: D.J. Moore over 71.5 receiving yards -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$110
    Bears 28, Lions 13

    Carolina Panthers (1-11) at New Orleans Saints (5-7)
    Line: Saints by 5.5. Total: 38.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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    CAROLINA OFFENSE: New Orleans’ defense hasn’t been the same since losing some players to injury. This includes Marshon Lattimore, whose absence allowed Jared Goff to go up and down the field on this defense last week. The Saints haven’t been as strong versus the run either in recent games.

    However, if you think Bryce Young will be able to exploit a positive matchup, you haven’t watched much of Young in the NFL. The No. 1 overall pick has been a total disaster, struggling against even the worst defenses. Young had a beautiful matchup last week versus the injury-ravaged Buccaneers, yet he couldn’t take advantage of it, scoring just 10 points before garbage time. When I previously called Young a thrift store version of Kyler Murray, perhaps I should have said that Young is a discarded waste that you can find on a sidewalk version of Murray because he is that terrible.

    The Panthers will have a chance to move the chains with Chuba Hubbard, who played well last week. Adam Thielen also has a positive matchup versus a defense that struggles to stop slot recievers. However, I don’t see Carolina being able to take advantage of those liabilities with Young under center.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints are banged up on this side of the ball as well. They’re down a couple of receivers, while Derek Carr suffered a concussion last week. It’s unlikely that Carr will be able to play, which will force Jameis Winston into action.

    Winston is the ultimate wild card because he can torch the opposition and give the game away with a horrible turnover. Winston certainly doesn’t have the best matchup, as Carolina boasts a terrific pass defense that has gotten better recently with some talented players returning from injury.

    Winston, however, may not have to do much because the Saints will be able to pound the ball against the Panthers, who can’t stop the run. Alvin Kamara will be given a healthy workload, while Taysom Hill will convert some short-yardage and red zone opportunities.

    RECAP: This reminds me of the Titans-Panthers game from a couple of weeks ago. In that contest, a bad team was favored by more than a field goal, so it made sense to back Carolina. However, I ended up siding with the favorite because the Titans had a big matchup edge in their favor.

    I think you can say the same thing about the Saints. They’ll want to run the ball, especially with Carr sidelined. They’ll be able to do this with Kamara and Hill quite easily because the Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Conversely, the Saints had some deficiencies in their secondary with Lattimore sidelined, but Young isn’t good enough to exploit those. This was also the case in that Tennessee matchup.

    Young ended up covering last week versus the Buccaneers, but needed a back-door touchdown and ensuing two-point conversion to get there. Not only are the Saints are better than the Buccaneers; they also match up better versus Carolina, so the favorite is the play in this contest.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s sounding like Taysom Hill may not play, which hurts the Saints’ biggest edge, which is the running game versus Carolina’s poor ground defense. There’s Alvin Kamara, of course, but without Hill, the Saints might be worse in the red zone, making the -5 more difficult to cover. Either way, I won’t be betting this game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a lot on the injury report. Derek Carr practiced fully on Friday, so he may clear concussion protocol. However, he may not be 100 percent with his other injuries. Taysom Hill is questionable after failing to practice every day this week. Chris Olave was DNP on Thursday and Friday with an illness. The Saints are so banged up that it’s difficult to trust them, but it’s not like I have any interest in Carolina either because Alvin Kamara could just go insane against the Panthers’ poor run defense.

    PLAYER PROPS: Alvin Kamara’s rushing yardage prop seems low (59.5), especially in a matchup with the Panthers, who allow the third-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. Also, consider that Taysom Hill is unlikely to play after being DNP in practice all three days. The best number for this is over 59.5 -119 at Caesars.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Derek Carr will play, which reminds me of when he came back too early versus the Buccaneers in the Week 4 blowout. However, the matchup is different versus Carolina’s poor run defense. I still would take the Saints if I had to do so. The sharps took the Panthers at +6. The best line for the Saints now is -5.5 -103 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Panthers. Calculated Spread: Saints -3.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.

    Computer Model: Saints -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

    What is this betting action?

    Percentage of money on Carolina: 67% (129,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

  • History: Saints have won 11 of the last 16 meetings.
  • Derek Carr is 6-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???
  • Opening Line: Saints -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Saints 21, Panthers 14
    Saints -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Alvin Kamara over 59.5 rushing yards -119 (1 Unit) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$120
    Saints 28, Panthers 6

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
    Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 41.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

    If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

    Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: The first thing to analyze when breaking down an Atlanta game is to determine whether the Falcons will be able to run the ball. This is imperative because Desmond Ridder is a disaster. He’s not as bad as Bryce Young, but he has killed his team with way too many turnovers, especially in the red zone.

    The numbers may say that this is unfavorable matchup for the Falcons because the Buccaneers have some positive rush defense stats. However, Chuba Hubbard just ran all over Tampa’s defense, so what gives? The issue with the Buccaneers is the high number of injuries they’ve suffered. They were down their top three linebackers last week, including Lavonte David and Devin White. They were naturally worse versus the rush without them.

    There’s a chance the Buccaneers will get one of them back this week, but they may not be 100 percent in their first game back in action. Thus, Bijan Robinson, who has been shouldering more of the workload lately, figures to have a strong showing, which will put Ridder in favorable passing situations. Ridder has a great matchup against a Tampa secondary that had been dreadful even before it was ravaged by injury.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Falcons will be able to run the ball, it doesn’t seem likely that the Buccaneers will be able to do so. They had issues in that regard in the first matchup between these teams when Rachaad White was limited to 34 yards on 13 carries.

    Mike Evans was at least able to have a big game. He came close to reaching the 100-yard plateau despite battling a secondary that has done a good job of limiting outside receivers with their talented cornerbacks. Evans also beat a tough matchup last week, so there is no stopping him. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll be able to keep the Buccaneers hanging around in most matchups.

    However, it’s tough to trust Baker Mayfield versus a team that can generate heavy pressure. The Falcons have the seventh-highest pressure rate this year, so Mayfield, who is not protected well, could be forced into some turnovers.

    RECAP: The Falcons dominated the Buccaneers in their previous matchup. That may seem odd because that was a 16-13 result, but Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay by nearly 100 yards and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. It ended up being a close game because the Falcons fumbled the ball twice at the goal line.

    I don’t see why this result would be any different. We can’t even say these teams are the same because Tampa Bay was worse than it was back in Week 7. This is because of all the injuries they’ve suffered lately. White, David and Jamel Dean all missed last week’s game.

    Oh, and when I say that this game will have a similar outcome, I’m also referring to a misleading margin. The Falcons have a habit of screwing up in the red zone. They kick so many field goals, which leads to some low point totals like 13 and 16. Thus, it’s difficult to back them as a favorite, even below three, because they could easily win this game 22-20, or something like that.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp movement on Tampa, which made me wonder if there was positive injury news. Lavonte David is practicing fully, so there it is. Then again, Vita Vea missed Wednesday’s practice, so we now have to wonder about his status.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have serious injury issues. The Buccaneers are getting Lavonte David back from injury, but they’ll still be without Devin White and Jamel Dean. Vita Vea could join them after being DNP in every practice. For the Falcons, they’ll potentially be missing two offensive linemen, Kaleb McGary (out) and Drew Dalman (DNP-limited-limited), as well as two defensive tackles, Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata (both out). Additionally, the Falcons will be without solid linebacker Nate Landman, while both Jeff Okudah (limited-DNP-limited) and A.J. Terrell (limited-limited-full) could be banged up. Given Atlanta’s injuries, we can now see why some sharp money came in on the Buccaneers.

    PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers surrender the fifth-most production to outside receivers, which makes Drake London’s prop very appealing. London’s listed receiving yardage prop is 45.5. He’s gone over that figure in five of his previous seven games, including a 6-54 outing versus the Buccaneers in Week 7. The best number for this is over 45.5 receiving yards -125 at PointsBet.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams have major injuries. The biggest one, quite literally, is Vita Vea, whose absence will help the Falcons run the ball. However, the Falcons are down five starters, so it’s not like they’re in a good spot either. The sharps have taken both sides in this game. The best line is -1.5 -110 at many sportsbooks, including DraftKings and Caesars.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.

    Computer Model: Falcons -2.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

    Decent money on the Buccaneers.

    Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 65% (147,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

  • History: Buccaneers have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Road Team is 129-90 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -2.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 19, Buccaneers 13
    Falcons -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Drake London over 45.5 receiving yards -125 (1 Unit) – PointsBet — Correct; +$100
    Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25

    Indianapolis Colts (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)
    Line: Bengals by 2.5. Total: 44.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Wow, Jake Browning! That was quite the show he put on Monday night. I expected the Bengals to cover the spread, but was shocked to see a 34-point output from Browning in which he completed 32-of-37 passes, with one of his misfires being a Ja’Marr Chase drop.

    Browning doesn’t have as easy of a matchup this week, but it’s still rather favorable. The Colts have the 12th-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so they won’t be able to put much heat on the backup quarterback. Browning will be able to target Chase against a secondary missing key cornerbacks. He’ll also thrive when throwing to tight ends, as Indianapolis has given up the seventh-most production to the position. Browning loves targeting tight ends, so this is a good sign for him.

    Joe Mixon will also be able to help Browning once again. The Colts have been abysmal against ground attacks, though that’ll soon change with run-stuffer Grover Stewart coming off suspension. However, it remains to be seen what shape Stewart will be in during his first game back in action.

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts will also be able to establish the run. It seemed like every DFS player in the world chased Zack Moss in an obvious bust spot last week, which resembled lemmings walking off a cliff, or brainwashed people lining up to take an untested medication that doesn’t work. Moss, however, is actually in a good spot this week because the Bengals are poor against the run. I don’t think the Jaguars realized this when they failed to give Travis Etienne the appropriate number of carries on Monday night, but I’m sure the Colts will recognize this liability.

    Moss will give Gardner Minshew ideal throwing opportunities, which is crucial because Minshew has been a bit of a turnover machine this year. The Bengals have the talented edge rushers to hound him, so it’s imperative for Minshew to be placed in unfavorable situations.

    Assuming Minshew doesn’t self destruct, Michael Pittman Jr. figures to have a big performance. Pittman is going against a secondary that has allowed top-10 production to outside receivers for most of the season. The Bengals are much better against the slot, so don’t expect much from Josh Downs, though Minshew can compensate for that by getting the ball to his tight ends. Cincinnati has allowed the most production to tight ends this year.

    RECAP: This seems like another favorable matchup for Browning. The Colts obviously don’t have the same caliber of defense that the Steelers possess. They’re closer to the Jaguars, in fact, as they just surrendered 28 points to the Will Levis-led Titans. Unless Grover Stewart is great in his first game back, Indianapolis’ weakness against the run will prove to be costly in this game.

    I like the Bengals. I believe they should be favored over an overrated Indianapolis team that has gotten so many breaks this year. The Colts should have lost to the Titans last week, for example. They were also outgained by the Patriots in Germany, but prevailed because of some bone-headed plays by the New England quarterbacks. If the Colts were 5-7 right now instead of 7-5, they would not be favored on the road, even against Browning. I’m down for a small play on the Bengals.

    By the way, if you’re worried about the Bengals playing on a short week following an overtime affair, don’t be. Teams coming off an overtime game on Monday night are an even 16-16 against the spread dating back to 1989. They are 8-7 ATS if they won the game, so there’s nothing to be seen here from a fatigue perspective.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Bengals, but nothing substantial. There isn’t anything else to note except Braden Smith missed practice. His absence would obviously help Cincinnati’s pass rush.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Braden Smith is out for the Colts, which gives Cincinnati an edge in the trenches. Despite this, I’ve decided to lay off this game because betting the Bengals feels like chasing a misleading result. Jake Browning looked incredible Monday night, but I’m not sure the Jaguars can stop anyone right now.

    PLAYER PROPS: Jake Browning loves targeting his tight ends. This is good news for Browning because the Colts allow the seventh-most production to the position. Tanner Hudson has been the tight end of choice for Browning, so he should be able to catch three or more passes. His over 2.5 receptions is available for -125 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continued to pound the Bengals up to -3, but you can still get -2.5 -121 at Bookmaker. The Colts will be missing their top two cornerbacks again; there was some hope that JuJu brents would return, but he’s out once again.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.

    Computer Model: Colts -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 55% (184,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Colts -2.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Chance of rain, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Bengals 20, Colts 17
    Bengals -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Tanner Hudson over 2.5 receptions -125 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$125
    Bengals 34, Colts 14

    Houston Texans (7-5) at New York Jets (4-8)
    Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 33.

    Sunday, Dec. 10, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Say what you want about the Jets, but they’ve given us some great entertainment this year. In the latest episode, they expressed their desire to go back to Zach Wilson as the starting quarterback, but a report was released indicating that Wilson was reluctant to be the starter again. Aaron Rodgers then had to defend Wilson to the media.

    What a disaster. It sounds like Wilson will start again, but he can’t be trusted to take care of the football. He’s an upgrade over Tim Boyle for sure, but Wilson has ruined potential victories with untimely give-aways. He’ll have an opportunity to play well against a Houston secondary that has struggled this year, but he can’t be trusted.

    The Jets would love to take the ball out of Wilson’s hands by feeding Breece Hall, but it’ll be difficult to expect positive production from him. Hall can go the distance whenever he touches the ball, but he’ll be battling a defense that has improved a lot versus ground attacks this year.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud has enjoyed a terrific rookie campaign, but there’s reason to believe that he won’t have a very good performance this Sunday. The Jets have embarrassed most quarterbacks they’ve battled this year, including Josh Allen (first meeting), Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert. As awesome as Stroud has been this year, he hasn’t played on the same level as that quartet.

    Stroud also won’t have his dynamic receiving threat, Tank Dell, who suffered a season-ending injury last week. Stroud still has some threats in Nico Collins and Noah Brown, but they’ll have problems getting open against New York’s elite secondary. The Jets also defend tight ends well, so don’t expect much from Dalton Schultz.

    There is a way, however, that the Texans will be able to move the chains. That’ll come through the ground game. The Jets are a run-funnel defense, so Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce will be able to keep Stroud in favorable down-and-distance situations. Unlike last week, the Jets won’t be able to stack the box like they did with Bijan Robinson because they’ll have to actually worry about Stroud beating them, as opposed to Ridder, who isn’t very good.

    RECAP: I’m done with the Jets. The fact that they couldn’t beat the Falcons spoke volumes. They came close to covering, but they should have won outright because of favorable matchups. They ended up outgaining Atlanta, but they lost anyway because of inept quarterbacking and poor offensive line play.

    I can’t side with them against the Texans, who are playing much better football than the Falcons right now. The Jets don’t even have a quarterback who wants to start, while their defense figures to get gashed by Houston’s rushing attack.

    While I’m picking Houston, I’m not betting them. Points will be difficult to come by in this game, so a low-scoring result could allow the Jets to cover. Ultimately, I think the Texans win by a score of 16-6 or 17-9, or something of that nature.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Zach Wilson has been announced as the starter, prompting the movement from 5.5 to 3.5. So, if you ever wondered what the difference between Wilson and Tim Boyle is, you now know that it’s two points. None of this will convince me to bet either side.

    SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re thinking about taking the Jets, expecting them to rekindle some of the magic they had against Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, keep in mind that John Franklin-Myers and Breece Hall could be out after missing practice most of the week. I still have a lean on the Texans, but I can’t bet it.

    PLAYER PROPS: Nico Collins has been on fire lately, but he’ll come back down to Earth in this game. No team has allowed less production to outside receivers than the Jets. Thus, it’ll be very difficult for Collins to eclipse 67.5 receiving yards. The best vig for this is -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Breece Hall and John Franklin-Myers were very shaky heading into Sunday, but they’ll both play. I can see the appeal to backing the Jets, but I can’t get there as far as a wager is concerned, but I’ll switch my pick. The sharps have bet the Jets down to +3. You can still get +3.5 -123 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Texans -4.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.

    Computer Model: Texans -7.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

    Lots of bets on the Texans.

    Percentage of money on Houston: 77% (152,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.

  • Jets are 22-10 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 32 instances.
  • Opening Line: Texans -6.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Rain, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

  • Week 14 NFL Pick: Texans 13, Jets 12
    Jets +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 33 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Nico Collins under 67.5 receiving yards -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
    Jets 30, Texans 6

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 14 – Late Games

    Seahawks at 49ers  |  Vikings at Raiders  |  Broncos at Chargers  |  Bills at Chiefs  |  Eagles at Cowboys  |  Titans at Dolphins  |  Packers at Giants  | 

    Comments on the 2023 NFL Season’s Games and Picks

    NFL Picks - Sept. 11

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

    2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25

    NFL Power Rankings - June 2

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    On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results