So, which is it? Are offensive tackles less risky than other positions, or do they, like defensive tackles, bust frequently under the radar? With the debate going on about Ndamukong Suh or Russell Okung being the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, I felt it was important to look at the hit and bust rates of the offensive tackle position so we can compare it to how the defensive tackles fared.
Below is a chart of all of the offensive tackles selected in the top 16* of each NFL Draft from 1993** to 2009.
* Why top 16? I wanted to cover the top half of the first round, and anything below that gets distorted because it becomes unclear what a bust/hit is.
** Why 1993? I didn’t want to go back too far because scouting has really changed. In case you are wondering, there were two key hit offensive tackles chosen in 1992, so this data isn’t skewed at all.
Offensive Tackle |
Draft No. |
Year |
Hit, OK or Bust |
Comment |
Jake Long |
1 |
2008 |
Hit |
|
Orlando Pace |
1 |
1997 |
Hit |
|
Jason Smith |
2 |
2009 |
TBA |
Didn’t play much last year because of concussion problems. |
Robert Gallery |
2 |
2004 |
Bust |
Thriving as a guard, but a bust as a left tackle. |
Leonard Davis |
2 |
2001 |
OK |
|
Tony Boselli |
2 |
1995 |
Hit |
|
Joe Thomas |
3 |
2007 |
Hit |
|
Chris Samuels |
3 |
2000 |
Hit |
|
D’Brickashaw Ferguson |
4 |
2006 |
Hit |
|
Mike Williams |
4 |
2002 |
Bust |
One of the fattest human beings alive right now. |
Jonathan Ogden |
4 |
1996 |
Hit |
|
Levi Brown |
5 |
2007 |
Bust |
Still early, but he looks lost in pass protection. |
Andre Smith |
6 |
2009 |
TBA |
Mr. Man Boobs will probably be a bust, but that’s still to be determined. |
Walter Jones |
6 |
1997 |
Hit |
|
Bryant McKinnie |
7 |
2002 |
Hit |
|
Kyle Turley |
7 |
1998 |
OK |
|
Eugene Monroe |
8 |
2009 |
TBA |
|
Jordan Gross |
8 |
2003 |
Hit |
|
Willie Roaf |
8 |
1993 |
Hit |
|
Levi Jones |
10 |
2002 |
Hit |
|
Willie Anderson |
10 |
1996 |
Hit |
|
William Tra Thomas |
11 |
1998 |
Hit |
|
Ryan Clady |
12 |
2008 |
TBA |
Looked like a hit after his rookie season, but Josh McDaniels could ruin his career. |
Jammal Brown |
13 |
2005 |
Hit |
|
Brad Hopkins |
13 |
1993 |
Hit |
A 12-year starter and 2-time Pro Bowler for the Titans. |
Chris Williams |
14 |
2008 |
OK |
Looked pretty solid toward the end of last season. |
Kenyatta Walker |
14 |
2001 |
Bust |
|
John Tait |
14 |
1999 |
Hit |
|
Bernard Williams |
14 |
1994 |
Bust |
Out of the league in four years. |
Wayne Gandy |
15 |
1994 |
Hit |
Started in the NFL for more than a decade. |
Shawn Andrews |
16 |
2004 |
OK |
Hard to call him a bust because he played so well for a few years. Injuries and depression ruined his career. |
Using the data from the quarterback and defensive tackle bust article, let’s make another nifty chart comparing the amount of hits, busts, OKs and TBAs for each position:
Position |
No. of Prospects |
Hits |
Busts |
OKs |
TBAs |
Quarterbacks |
29 |
13 |
12 |
2 |
2 |
Defensive Tackles |
33 |
15 |
15 |
2 |
1 |
Offensive Tackles |
31 |
18 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
You’re reading that right. Since 1993, there have only been five busts at the offensive tackle position in the top 16 picks of the NFL Draft.
Now, let’s look at the hit and bust rates for each position (remember, these numbers exclude TBAs because they are neither hits nor busts yet):
Quarterback Hit Rate: 48.2%
Defensive Tackle Hit Rate: 46.9%
Offensive Tackle Hit Rate: 69.2%
Quarterback Bust Rate: 44.4%
Defensive Tackle Bust Rate: 46.9%
Offensive Tackle Bust Rate: 19.2%
Pretty insane, huh? Offensive tackles chosen in the top 16 hit 69.2 percent of the time and bust on just a 19.2-percent clip.
There will always be busts at every position in the NFL Draft. There is no such thing as a guarantee when you’re giving 21- and 22-year-olds millions of dollars. But offensive tackles are as close to a guarantee as you’re going to get.
Go here to see how this relates to the Lions drafting Ndamukong Suh or Russell Okung.
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