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Navy Midshipmen (8-4) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5)
Line: Wake Forest by 3. Total: 43.
Saturday, 11:00 AM ET
The Game. Edge: Push.
Injuries: Navy: OUT: T Andrew McGinn. Wake Forest: OUT: C Trey Bailey, TE J.T. Dixon.
NAVY OFFENSE: The Midshipmen offense dominated in their last matchup on September 27. They rushed for 292 yards, but Wake Forest caused two fumbles. Navy has little passing offense to speak of, as rushing yardage compiles over 82 percent of their offensive production this season. Look for Wake Forest to load up the box and Aaron Curry to make big plays this time around…but I still expect Navy to eclipse 200 yards rushing. The question will be if Wake Forest can force Navy into long 3rd down situations to force punts rahter than giving Navy 3rd and 3 or 4.
WAKE FOREST OFFENSE: Quarterback Riley Skinner has been effecient most of the season boasting a 122 passer rating, but Navy managed to force Skinner to make bad decisions. Despite throwing for 270 yards in their last matchup, Skinner threw only one touchdown and four interceptions. As if things were not bad enough for Forest, they only rushed for 43 yards. I have a hard time seeing this offense be so ineffecient on Saturday.
RECAP: The Navy offense could experience similar success as they had back in September with fewer turnovers, but Wake Forest probably found some holes in their defense on film and they will correct them. However, Navy could not have played a better game defensively. The Deacons have a lot of upside heading into this matchup.
The Psychology. Edge: Push.
Forest has not played their best ball down the stretch, and Navy has not had any competition down the stretch (NIU, Army). Neither team should have a home crowd advantage as this game is in Washington, realtively close to both campuses. Navy might come out and play a tough game as an underdog, keeping this one close down the stretch, but it is too close to call.
The Vegas. Edge: Navy.
No one likes a team without a passing game.
The Trends. Edge: Push.
Bowl Pick: Wake Forest 27, Navy 20
Wake Forest -3 (1 Unit)
Over 43 (1 Unit)
Colorado State Rams (6-6) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-5)
Line: Fresno State by 3. Total: 60.5.
Saturday, 2:30 ET
The Game. Edge: Fresno State.
Injuries: Fresno State: OUT: G Cole Popovich, LB Ryan Machado, LB Qaadir Brown
FRESNO STATE OFFENSE: Quarterback Tom Brandstater came into the 2008 season with a lot of hype from the likes of ESPN’s Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, both thinking he would be a first or second round pick. Brandstater had a solid season turning out 2,479 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. However, he was not particularly efficent throwing 11 interceptions and not showing much arm strength. The Rams meanwhile have a weak defense ranking 96th nationally in scoring defense and 89th in total defense.
COLORADO STATE OFFENSE: Billy Farris put up similar numbers to Brandstater this season, but Colorado State has the X-Factor in runningback Gartrell Johnson. Johnson is a hard nosed runningback and prefers to do his work between the tackles. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry this season and has 10 touchdowns to boot. Fresno ranks 112th nationally in yards per carry given up, so Johnson should have a good game if he doesn’t fumble. Still, I don’t see this passing game being very explosive limiting the offensive production.
RECAP: Johnson givs the CSU offense some consistency, but expect Pat Hill to devise a game plan to limit his production. I like Brandstater to put up something close to 230 yards passing and 2 touchdowns, giving the Bulldogs a slight cover.
The Psychology. Edge: Colorado State
This Colorado State senior class has gone through a lot going 4-8 in 2006 and 3-9 in 2007. They are thirsty for a big win and want to end their college careers with meaning.
The Vegas. Edge: Colorado State.
Fresno State, the preseason “BCS Buster” is getting a little love from the public, but nothing to ride home about.
The Trends. Edge: Push.
Bowl Pick: Fresno State 27, Colorado State 17.
Fresno State -3 (1 Unit)
Under 60.5 (2 Units)
Memphis Tigers (6-6) vs. South Florida Bulls (7-5)
Line: South Florida by 12.5. Total: 53.
Saturday, 4:30 ET
The Game. Edge: Push.
Injuries: Memphis: OUT: QB Will Hudgens, RB T.J. Pitts, RB Gregory Ray, WR Brian Hall. South Florida OUT: RB Aston Samuels T Danous Estenor, G Danny Tolley, S Danny Verpaele, K Justin Teachey.
MEMPHIS OFFENSE: This is an offense with a dominant offensive line against the run. Memphis runningbacks and receivers average 5.5 yards per carry in this offense, however, USF only gives up 2.9 yards per carry. This is an intriguing matchup, and whoever has a psychological edge will win. If Memphis can get the Bulls on the ropes, they should be able to wear them down in the fourth quarter. Starting signal caller Arkenon Hall only averages 6.9 yards per attempt and has an 11 to 7 TD/INT ratio, so he isn’t a big play threat in the passing game. USF should keep this game close, but things don’t always work out they way we expect on paper.
SOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE: Matt Grothe is absolutely one of the most overrated players in the country, hearlded all season by ESPN. He has thrown 14 picks and he is terribly inaccurate. Memphis will generate turnovers and limit the lack of athleticism in this USF backfield.
RECAP: I do not see any edge here as it should be a close game just based on matchups…but this is exactly what we want with a comfortable spread.
The Psychology. Edge: Memphis
This was a huge let down for South Florida. They had BCS aspirations as preseason Big East favorites and have faltered all season long. Meanwhile, Memphis is exactly where they want to be and out to knock out what they perceive is as a giant.
The Vegas. Edge: Push.
Dead even money, means good times for us.
The Trends. Edge: Push.
Bowl Pick: Memphis 24, South Florida 23
Memphis +12.5 (3 Units – Pick of the Week)
Under 53 (1 Unit)
Brigham Young Cougars (10-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)
Line: Arizona by 3. Total: 61.5.
Saturday, 8:00 ET
The Game. Edge: Push.
Injuries: Brigham Young: OUT: TE Vic So’oto, LB Dan Van Sweden. Arizona OUT: WR Terrell Reese, C Blake Kerley, DT Lolomana Mikaele, DE Jonathan Turner, LB Sterling Lewis, CB Michael Turner.
BRIGHAM YOUNG OFFENSE: Quarterback Max Hall leads an efficent offense with his 160 passer rating and throwing 3 percent interceptions on the season in this west coast offense, which is familiar to Arizona (ASU, Cal, and USC). In the pass happy Pac 10, Arizona managed to hold opponents to a mere 5.6 yards per attempt. This is a very impressive statistic, which can frustrate Hall and this unenthused offense.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Willie Tuitama has had a very quiet, yet sensational senior year. He has thrown 21 touchdowns to eight interceptions, throwing for 7.6 yards per attempt in the process. Nic Grigsby is a speedy scat back that can break for long gains. In seven of his 12 games this season, Grigsby has had a rush of 25 yards or more. BYU put up mediocre stats in the MWC, and they don’t have any talent to show for it after the loss of Bryan Kehl to the NFL last season.
RECAP: Both teams have quarterbacks that can take care of the football, so this will be a must see game on Saturday. Not much of an edge to speak of. Arizona averaged 0.33 turnovers more per game than BYU this season, and with their psychological edge (see below) you could see a greater turnover differential.
The Psychology. Edge: Arizona.
Four straight trips to the same bowl can get very boring, just ask BYU this season. Meanwhile, Arizona is going to be jacked because this is their first bowl appearence in a decade. Huge psychological edge here, which explains AU being favored by Vegas.
The Vegas. Edge: Arizona.
Public is pounding the No. 17 ranked BYU Cougars in the BCS as a dog.
The Trends. Edge: Push.
Bowl Pick: Arizona 34, BYU 23
Arizona -3 (2 Units)
Under 61.5 (1 Unit)
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