2009 Fantasy Football Mailbag Notes: Note that the e-mails I received have been italicized and left unedited. My responses follow them.
6/1/09
2009 Fantasy Football E-mails – Turner Workload, Rosenfels Love
I won�t pass on Michael Turner because of the amount of carries he got last year. You can�t look for causation in football and end on one reason. I�m not saying it can�t be a factor. He�s in a good enough situation where it shouldn�t apply. He wasn�t overworked in SD.
My Response:
That’s just one factor. Even if Michael Turner doesn’t break down, the Falcons already acknowledged that they can’t give Turner as much of a workload in ’09.
Also, I brought up the schedule issue. Turner had eight 100-yard games last year. Six of them came against the Lions, Chiefs, Raiders, Packers, Rams and Buccaneers.
Turner isn’t so lucky to play those crappy teams in 2009. Instead of the NFC North and AFC West, the Falcons get the AFC East and NFC East.
Do you really like Peyton Manning better than Drew Brees even with all of the turnover with the coaching and losing his most familiar and favorite target? I think that is a lot to swallow for Manning and he will struggle a bit. I still see him as top five but not top two.
My Response:
Peyton Manning lost his favorite target a year ago, as far as I’m concerned. Manning had a really good year in 2008, and he was playing with an injured knee and a horrific version of Harrison. The coaching turnover is a very slight concern because Manning is playing in the same system. He’ll be great once again, and I think he’s undervalued for the first time in years.
I love how you are predicting 14 INT’s from Sage Rosenfels, who probably wont even play the whole year, and only 13 from one of the games biggest chokers Jay Cutler, who has no proven receivers, and has an average line.
Cutler is just as turnover prone as Sage. You are basing Sage’s turnover prone on a single game. You can’t blame Cutler’s defense for him throwing picks in the redzone that would have won his team the game. Cutler was just as much to fault as the Broncos defense for the epic choke by the Broncos last year.
My Response:
Sage Rosenfels is turnover-prone, as we all have seen. Jay Cutler won’t have to force throws with a very good defense… he won’t have to come back in a 31-28 shootout like last year.
One game, eh? In six starts, Rosenchoker had 6 TDs and 10 INTs. Unless he had a 10-INT game that I missed, I think it’s more than one game.
Cutler had to carry the Broncos. He was the only reason they were 8-5 to begin with.
Denver’s defense gave up 112 points in the final three games. 112 points!!! That’s an average of 37.3 points per game.
I guess Cutler sucks because he couldn’t lead his team to 113 points in that stretch.
Knowshon Moreno isn’t, for now, rated that highly. Behind an offensive line like the Broncos have, and with the talent he has, I can easily see him getting over 1,000 yards. I currently have him 36th, and can easily see him cracking 30. What do you think of Knowshon?
My Response:
As you’ll see in my 2009 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings, Knowshon Moreno is No. 11. I think it’s irresponsible for fantasy experts like Matthew Berry (even though I’m a fan of his) not to have him rated higher.
Moreno’s an extremely talented, every-down runner who has one of the top offensive lines blocking for him. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he leads the league in yards from scrimmage.
Moreno will be mine in every non-Touchdown League at the bottom of Round 2 or top of Round 3. I just have to hope no one from my leagues is reading this.
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