2020 Fantasy Football Busts

2020 Fantasy Football Busts (Aug. 30):

This is a list of my top 2020 fantasy football busts – players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

I was dead on with some of my busts over the past three years. My top busts for 2019 were Antonio Brown and Todd Gurley. I had some misses as well, but Brown and Gurley were two players I didn’t want to select in the top three rounds.

  1. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. ADP: 1.05.
    I’m shocked Derrick Henry’s ADP wasn’t in the first round to start, but it has moved there since. In fact, he’s now projected to be the fifth running back off the board. This is a mistake because of the workload he shouldered last year. Right tackle Jack Conklin’s departure will hurt him as well.

  2. Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals. ADP: 2.03.
    Kenyan Drake is someone who has massive upside this season because he could catch a ton of passes in Arizona’s up-tempo offense. However, he also has a very low floor. He’s never handled a full workload, and I think there’s a chance he splits touches in some way with Chase Edmonds. I think the second round is a bit too early for Drake.

  3. James Conner, RB, Steelers. ADP: 2.11.
    The Steelers weren’t pleased with James Conner last year, and they even said so this spring. They didn’t find a clear-cut replacement for him, but between Benny Snell and Anthony “Not Booger” McFarland Jr., one of them could take over for Conner at some point in 2020. If Conner’s own team doesn’t like him very much, why have him on your fantasy team?

  4. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Jets. ADP: 3.06.
    Le’Veon Bell has been lackluster in training camp, according to multiple reports. One report even said that he’s not going to be the centerpiece of the Jets’ offense, and that a 60-40 workload with Frank Gore is possible. That plan may sound idiotic, but don’t forget how dumb Adam Gase is.

  5. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams. ADP: 3.10.
    Cooper Kupp was once Jared Goff’s favorite receiver, but it seems as though Goff “graduated” to Robert Woods down the stretch. In fact, Kupp’s snap counts decreased in some games. Some people may not recognize this, which could mean Kupp will be overdrafted (and he is at 3.10.)

  6. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings. ADP: 3.06.
    Former coordinator Kevin Stefanski foolishly moved Adam Thielen out of the slot, which resulted in a diminished output for the talented receiver. Unless Thielen moves back into the slot – it’s been reported that Justin Jefferson will play there – he’ll likely be overdrafted in 2020. With Justin Jefferson on the roster, it seems likely that Jefferson will man the slot; not Thielen.

  7. Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, QBs, Cowboys/Cardinals. ADP: 5.06/5.08.
    I’m lumping Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray together because they’re both quarterbacks being chosen in the middle of the fifth round. I don’t mind having either for fantasy, but not at the cost of a fifth-, or even a sixth-round pick. Running backs are so scarce this year that you have to prioritize them and receivers. I wouldn’t draft any quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson prior to the seventh frame, though a case could be made for Russell Wilson in the sixth.

  8. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens. ADP: 4.06.
    Most NFL players have a greater chance of being struck by lightning than dying of Coronavirus, but that doesn’t apply to those with diabetes like Mark Andrews. The Raven star tight end is more at risk than other players, so if a teammate tests positive, he may have to sit out a game or two. The fourth round is way too early to draft a tight end not named Travis Kelce or George Kittle anyway.

  9. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings. ADP: 1.06.
    Dalvin Cook’s ADP is 1.06, and he’s the sixth running back chosen on average. Cook has a very dubious injury history, so I don’t trust him to make it through the season. Also, Minnesota’s offense took a hit this offseason, so Cook won’t be in position to score as often as he did in 2019. Cook not holding out anymore is a plus, but I still think he belongs on this bust list.

  10. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers. ADP: 2.11.
    Everyone expects Chris Godwin’s stats to increase with Tom Brady, but I don’t see why that would be the case. Godwin was just paired with a quarterback who threw for more than 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Brady, who won’t have to throw himself out of a hole like Jameis Winston often did, will be playing with more leads, which will lend the Buccaneers into utilizing a more conservative game plan. Also, Rob Gronkowski is now on the team, and he’ll command some end-zone looks.

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