6/2/13
From twitter Ryan Wittman, @ryanwittman0
“Fales in Rd 2? Also, If the Titans are drafting 10th again, I’d assume they’d look QB in Rd. 1.”
I’m not sold on David Fales as a first-round pick yet. I need to see more of him as a senior before I move him up into Round 1. Fales completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 4,193 yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions last year. However those numbers don’t tell the whole story as the first-year starter was dominating a rather weak level of competition. Fales’ worst game of the season came against Stanford, his best opponent, when he completed 24-of-35 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown and interception.
Fales looks like he has a quality arm and some accuracy. His completion percentage is inflated by a short, quick-passing offense. While he isn’t a dual-threat quarterback, he has some mobility to move in the pocket. Fales needs to improve his field vision as he has a tendency to stare down his primary option. Fales also has to make improvements in his foot work. He could be a little shorter than his listed measurements (6-3, 220) as well.
Let’s see how the senior does this year when he rematches against Stanford. That looks the only tough defense he’ll play during the regular season. Many were projecting Logan Thomas and Tyler Bray as first-rounders at this time last year, and look how that turned out. Thomas had a bad season and returned to Virginia Tech, while Bray went undrafted. Fales and Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron still have more to prove before I move them into the first round.
From twitter Craig Davis, @UK_Raiders
“A lot can happen between now and 2014. Who is a prospect off the radar who could end up a top 5 or 10 pick?”
That’s a great question. This time of the year there are guys who look like potential first-rounders but end up being undrafted. Nobody knew about BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah at this point last year, and he ended up being a top-five pick.
Right now, my favorite under-the-radar prospect is Tennessee left tackle Antonio Richardson. He could easily turn into a first-round pick with a strong 2013 season. The Volunteers were able to move Dallas Thomas inside to guard last year because of Richardson. He did an impressive job of protecting Tyler Bray’s blind side.
If Richardson plays well against South Carolina’s Jadeveon Clowney, he could give his stock a real boost. Richardson held his own against the phenom in 2012. I bet Tennessee will let Richardson take on Clowney in some one-on-ones. If Richardson does well on those plays, it could be huge for his draft stock. The 6-foot-6, 332-pounder has good size for a left tackle with surprising quickness and agility. Not a lot of people project him as a first-rounder right now, but I think that could easily change later this fall.
A few other under-the-radar candidates to keep an eye on include Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk, South Florida defensive end Aaron Lynch, UCLA guard/tackle Xavier Su’a-Filo, UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and Florida outside linebacker Ron Powell.
From Connor Leenders, Auckland, New Zealand
“What sort of impact do you think the post-draft signings of OT Max Starks and DE Dwight Freeney will have for the Chargers? Also is there any chance that D.J Fluker could play LT down the road?”
I think Starks will have the biggest impact for the Chargers. In my opinion, he was undervalued by Pittsburgh throughout his career. San Diego’s offensive line was horrific last year and I think Starks will have a real impact for Philip Rivers and the Chargers receivers. Starks is an upgrade at left tackle and could be a nice 1-year stop-gap while the team finds a permanent left tackle. It would be interesting if San Diego went back to Alabama to land Cyrus Kouandjio to be protect the blind side and reunite him with Fluker.
I think Fluker could turn into a good NFL right tackle or guard, but I don’t see him becoming a left tackle. I saw Fluker beaten for a lot of sacks last year and it seemed like many analysts glossed over his struggles in pass protection. He was tremendous as a run-blocker however. Fluker shows glimpses, like when he handled LSU’s Barkevious Mingo, but is inconsistent. I think after Fluker gets some good coaching, he could be a solid right tackle. If the speed-rusher problems continue, Fluker could be effective inside at guard.
I think Freeney is slowing down and I don’t think he’s going to contribute much. I would predict that Freeney will have five or six sacks, but won’t be anything close to the pass-rusher he used to be. John Abraham has more left in the tank in my opinion, but his price was higher than Freeney’s.
From Phil Jonek, Elmhurst, Illinois
“The pick of Kyle Long has gotten ripped in Chicago, but considering Gabe Carimi is going to get cut does that make the pick better? Also what could the Bears get for Carimi?”
I think the Bears reached for Long. They would have been better off taking linebacker Alec Ogletree in the first round and guard Larry Warford in the second round. Clearly, Phil Emery likes players with athletic potential and Long has flashed the skill set to turn into a good pro. I will say that I’m surprised he’s not playing left guard considering that is the guard who needs to be more athletic for pulling, but Chicago could be taking its time with Long and plan to eventually move him to left guard in a year or two.
It does sound like Carimi could be on his way out of town. That does make the Long pick more understandable because there is one less option at guard/tackle. I’m not confident the Bears could get a quality pick for Carimi. He hasn’t impressed thus far in his NFL career. I think Chicago’s best shot would be to bring Carimi to training camp and see if a team becomes desperate for help because of injuries on the offensive line. The Bears could maybe luck out and land a mid-round pick if a team liked Carimi coming out of Wisconsin.
From Ryan Michel, Savannah, Georgia
“I see you have the Falcons picking 32. God I hope you’re right, but do you think have enough talent on defense to win the Super Bowl?”
That’s definitely the big question. I may currently have the Falcons at No. 32, but that isn’t my final preseason prediction. I’ll adjust my projections after getting a look at teams in training camp. Still, Atlanta is already on the short list.
Offensively, I think the Falcons are Super Bowl ready assuming their core players stay healthy. Steven Jackson could give the team’s ground game a lift and add a missing dimension to the offense. I wonder if Atlanta had had Jackson last year, would it have been able to grind out a win over San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
Defensively, I think Osi Umenyiora will replace John Abraham nicely. I think the Falcons should try and get Abraham back, but it doesn’t look like they have the money to convince him to return. Still, I think they could get some pass rush out of Jonathan Massaquoi, Malliciah Goodman and Stansly Maponga. All three of those players had big seasons as pass-rushers in college. If Atlanta keep those players’ roles simple and just use them to rush the quarterback, it could expedite their development.
In the secondary, I think first-round corner Desmond Trufant is ready to play as a rookie. Fortunately, the Falcons have a great safety tandem who can give him some help, but I like Trufant as a man corner. Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator who can disguise the rookie’s weaknesses until he works them out.
I think it is all about the Falcons’ defense getting hot heading into the postseason. The Colts had a bad defense in 2006, but they got hot in January, which was enough for them to win the Super Bowl with a great offense. Atlanta could follow that pattern and perhaps the organization’s young defensive talents will be emerging as impact players in January.
From twitter Eric Westlund, @EricWestlund
“Still going Johnny (Manziel) that high, huh? The scouting community is starting to go the other way.”
Well I’m not sure which scouts you’re referring to, but the area scouts who I talk to haven’t seriously started the 2014 process. They are mostly on vacation until August.
There are some directors of college scouting in the NFL who have already started watching 2014 players, but the area scouts who give players their round grade haven’t started that process yet. Plus Manziel is an underclassman. Most area scouts just focus on the seniors and then go back and review the underclassmen once they’ve declared for the draft. It is way too early to make an estimation on how the scouting community feels about any 2014 prospect.
Once again send questions/comments via email [email protected] or on Twitter @draftcampbell.
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag Archive:
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - April 21
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - March 23
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - Aug. 5
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - July 22
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - July 9
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - June 26
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - June 2
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - May 16
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NFL Picks - Oct. 30
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30
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Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
