2023 NFL Draft Potential Busts: Offense | 2023 NFL Draft Potential Busts: Defense
2023 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers
Published April 21, 2023.
By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell
In the recent weeks, there have been a lot of questions about who are my value picks in the 2023 NFL Draft class. A value or sleeper prospect is basically a player who gets drafted after the first round and proves to be a steal. The second day of the draft is where the men are separated from the boys among NFL general managers. All the players have strengths and flaws, but the top evaluators find future starters and team building blocks on Day 2.
Every year, I pick my favorite second-day values. In case the player I picked goes in the first round, I started picking two players in case one is a surprise first-round pick. If a player goes in the first round, I should not get credit for calling them a second-day value pick if they pan out. Here is my track record starting in 2008, going back to my time with Pewter Report.
2008: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
2009: Mike Wallace, WR, Ole Miss
2010: Brian Price, DT, UCLA and Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
2011: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
2012: Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati
2013: Larry Warford, G, Kentucky
2014: Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M and Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State
2016: Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame and Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame
2017: Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama and Akhello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado
2018: Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech and Arden Key, DE, LSU
2019: Darnell Savage, S, Maryland and Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina
2020: Cam Akers, RB, Florida State and Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech
2021: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson; Aaron Robinson, CB, Central Florida; and Dayo Odeyingbo, DE, Vanderbilt
2022: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State and Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
2023: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa; Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa; and Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
My top candidates this year are Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell, and Pittsburgh defensive tackle Calijah Kancey. It would not be a shock if some of them snuck into the end of the first round. Hence, I put down a trio, and whoever makes it to the second night will be my top values of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Overall, this list is very strong, with a few exceptions like the pairs in 2015 and 2016. I definitely hit on Brandon Flowers, Mike Wallace, Justin Houston, Derek Wolfe, Larry Warford, Jaylon Smith, Ronald Darby and Deebo Samuel. Here is a breakdown of a top second-day value prospects at each position for the 2023 NFL Draft class. All the players will be prospects who are likely going on the second day of the 2023 NFL Draft. If a player is a possible late first-round pick, I generally don’t include them as an option.
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh Kancey definitely has a shot at being a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, particularly given how many media projections have him there. A lot of team sources, however, said they were projecting him to Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft because he is very undersized for the NFL at 6-foot-1, 280 pounds. Kancey’s stature could limit his role and playing time, but there is no doubt that he is a lightning-fast interior pass rusher with a serious ability to disrupt the quarterback. Kancey has the potential to be a superb interior rusher in the NFL, and if he makes it to the second round, I think he could end up being one of the best values from the 2023 NFL Draft.
2022: Arnold Ebiketie
2021: Dayo Odeyingbo
2020: Jason Strowbridge
2019: Zach Allen
2018: Arden Key
2017: Malik McDowell
2016: Sheldon Day
2015: Michael Bennett
2014: Dominique Easley & Taylor Hart
Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa Campbell (6-5, 246) is kind of the opposite of Kancey in that a number of NFL sources say they think Campbell could go in the back half of the first round, but the vast majority of the media is not projecting him there.
As a linebacker, Campbell is the complete package. He has great instincts and is very fast to read his keys to get in position to make plays. For a tall linebacker, Campbell plays with good leverage and does not stand up too high. Campbell is a tough box linebacker who shows the strength to take on blocks, shed offensive linemen, and make the tackle. He is smart to understand what offenses are trying to do, and he is disruptive when he isn’t making tackles. In the ground game, Campbell is very consistent and tough to help shut down rushing offenses.
Campbell is a skilled defender in pass coverage. He reads plays quickly and covers a lot of ground in zone. His height and length make him valuable for interrupting passing lanes, and that could be seen in how he picked off Stroud last year. With his length and quickness, Campbell can run down the middle seam, and he functions well as a Tampa 2 coverage linebacker. On dump-off passes to the flat, Campbell is quick enough to get to the ball-carrier and is good at making tackles in space. His size and athleticism allows him to have the potential to play some man coverage on tight ends and backs out of the backfield.
Campbell looks like an 8-year starter who will be an asset to call the plays for his defense and line up his teammates while also being a good defender in both phases. I think a lot of teams could end up regretting passing on him Campbell in the 2023 NFL Draft.
2022: Damone Clark
2021: Jabril Cox
2020: Jordyn Brooks
2019: Mack Wilson
2018: Darius Leonard
2017: Zach Cunningham
2016: Jaylon Smith
2015: Denzel Perryman
2014: Kyle Van Noy
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland Banks (6-2, 200) is a natural cover corner with speed, height, strength, quick feet, and agility. He is very fluid and does a nice job of running the route with receivers to prevent them from gaining separation. Banks keeps wideouts from coming open and is quick to recover if they get a step. For a big cornerback, Banks has very nice hips to turn and run downfield with speed receivers. He has enough twitchy athleticism to break on the ball and drive down hard on wide receivers.
Entering the NFL, Banks has to get more disciplined in coverage. Pro quarterbacks and receivers will test his lack of discipline with double moves, and they will utilize confusing bunches to see if Banks lack of discipline comes back to bite him. Hence, teams feel Banks needs some development, so he could slip to the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. If Banks gets more disciplined, he could prove to be a great value from Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
2022: Martin Emerson
2021: Aaron Robinson
2020: Damon Arnette
2019: Julian Love
2018: Isaiah Oliver
2017: Akhello Witherspoon
2016: Kendall Fuller
2015: Ronald Darby
2014: Marcus Roberson
Jartavius ‘Quan’ Martin, S, Illinois In his fifth season, Martin took his game to another level with three interceptions, 11 pass breakups, two forced fumbles, one sack and 64 tackles. He was all over the field for the Illini, playing nickel corner as well as safety.
Martin has the ability to line up and cover slot receivers. Martin’s quickness, flexibility, and fluid athleticism allow him to line up at the line of scrimmage or pick up his assignments in off-man coverage. Martin will be a real asset to his defense when going against dangerous slot receivers. In nickel, he is a capable cover corner to run the route and prevent separation. Martin shows good instincts to play the ball and is very active in the middle of the field.
Martin also is a skilled strong safety. He has the mentality of an aggressive strong safety who comes downhill and dishes out hard hits in the box or flat. With impressive speed, Martin closes ground in a hurry to cut down ball-carriers or snuff out wide receiver screens. In zone coverage, Martin covers a ton of ground and is very fluid in space.
Martin was a good run defender in college, as his takedown totals suggest. He tackles well and does a nice job of weaving through blockers. He is smart about how he tackles by taking the legs out from underneath backs. However, Martin is a little light, so he could have some issues with power backs. While is tough and aggressive, Martin’s build could lead to injuries in the NFL.
For the next level, Martin (5-11, 194) looks like a starting nickel corner who could play safety in the base defense. He could be a second-day steal from the 2023 NFL Draft.
2022: Lewis Cine
2021: Andre Cisco
2020: Kyle Dugger
2019: Darnell Savage
2018: Terrell Edmunds
2017: Marcus Maye
2016: Keanu Neal
2015: Damarious Randall
2014: Dion Bailey
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