Price Headley:
This is the toughest Belmont to handicap in the 14 years since I started my Triple Crown analysis via the launch of BigTrends.com. It may be wet at the New York track and, while Orb liked the wet conditions in the Derby and is the sentimental favorite for the owners in their home state (3-1), I’m looking for more value in a fairly wide open race. So here’s what I’m liking:
Overanalyze (Post Position 3, 12-1): He’s a closer, and the misfire in the Derby aside, he’s won on the Belmont track and sets up well if the pace is more reasonable than it was in the Preakness (which is why I’m also throwing out Preakness winner Oxbow).
Revolutionary (PP 9, 9-2): One of the most consistent horses after Orb, I look for a solid late-stretch run from this one.
Orb (PP 5, 3-1): Orb is bred to love the extra distance and looked like he liked the slop too. The main question mark is why he didn’t fire at all in the Preakness and if the horse is right health-wise for this race. If Orb is, he’s tough to beat, but I’m thinking that the connections waffled a bit on whether to run him here and that makes me wonder if Orb is really 100%.
Also interested in Vyjack (PP 11, 20-1) as well as Golden Soul (PP 14, 10-1) and the filly Unlimited Budget (PP 13, 8-1). A big wildcard is Freedom Child (PP 2, 8-1).
Hypothetical Betting Portfolio:
$10 Win on No. 3
$10 Win on No. 11
$4 Exacta Box on Nos. 3, 5, 9 and 11
$1 Trifecta Box on Nos. 3, 5 and 9 with Nos. 3, 5, 9 and 11 with Nos. 2, 3, 5, 9, 13 and 14.
Moby Waller:
I agree with Price that this is a difficult Belmont to handicap. Orb could bounce back with a monster performance and win easily, but he just didn’t look right in the Preakness (yet still finished 4th). I think he’ll probably be third or fourth again in the Belmont. And are we both making a big mistake by writing off the chances of Preakness winner Oxbow?
For this year’s race, I preferred rested horses that have shown they can gain ground at distance – also ones that have done well in a sloppy/muddy track, as we likely will have on Saturday at the Belmont (but check the updated weather on Saturday if that is a factor for you):
Revolutionary (PP 9, 9/2)
Golden Soul (PP 14, 10/1)
Freedom Child (PP 2, 8/1)
Orb (PP 5, 3/1)
Theoretical Wagers:
$1 Exacta Box (Nos. 9, 14, 2, 5)
$1 Trifecta Box (Nos. 9, 14, 2, 5)
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