BigTrends 2015 Belmont Analysis

Belmont 2015: BigTrends Picks & Analysis

Price Headley, CEO of

We have a Triple Crown contender yet again, as American Pharoah has won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in solid fashion. However, his times in both races have been on the slow side, and so we are left to ask, is the horse slower than usual, or are the connections saving the horse to have something left in the tank for the Belmont closing leg? There are a couple of contenders, though no other natural speed to challenge Pharoah. So I expect Pharoah to take the lead and then try to cruise at a slow pace to hope to hold off any charging contenders at the finish. The weather should be good, and the biggest question is whether Pharoah has enough left after the past two impressive wins. Speed tends to hold up better than you would expect for this longest Grade 1 dirt race in America. So here’s what I’m thinking:

Frosted (Post Position 6, 5-1 odds): This horse won the Wood Memorial in New York in an impressive come-from-behind fashion, and then was making up ground well to finish fourth in the Derby after a rough trip. He’s had a couple of extra weeks off after skipping the Preakness to prepare for the Belmont. I think he’s the most clear contender to knock Pharoah off the throne, and while I’d say it’s less than a coin flip to happen, it’s better odds to make it worth betting with Frosted on top in most exotic bets.

American Pharoah (Post Position 5, 3-5): Certainly, I think he’s the best horse most days, but the grueling Triple Crown process of three races over 5 weeks takes it out of any horse. The horse industry would love to get the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, but as a trader, I’m in the business of selling into high hopes, so we have to look for ways to get paid by either beating him or combining him with other horses in exotic bets, as I did with Tale of Verve underneath in the Preakness exacta (there my recommended $5 exacta returned $309 two weeks ago).

Tale of Verve (Post Position 2, 15-1): This horse was charging hard late in the Preakness, but that race had no other closers, which is why I like this one to get up for at least second. This time, he may be overmatched versus a couple others, but I like the sharp workout last weekend that tells me he could still get up for a piece of the action in exotics.

Hypothetical Betting Portfolio:
$20 Win on No. 6
$2 Exacta Box on Nos. 2, 5 and 6
$2 Exacta Box 6 with ALL
$2 Trifecta on 5,6 with 2,5,6 with ALL

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