Josh Allen sat in the visiting locker room at Empower Field, tears cutting tracks through the January cold still clinging to his face. There were five turnovers for his Buffalo Bills side in their Divisional Round defeat at the hands of the number one seed Denver Broncos, four of them at Allen’s hand. The headliner: That overtime interception to Ja’Quan McMillian, which triggered the beginning of the end of yet another postseason.

His postgame apology—”I feel like I let my teammates down tonight”—has become an annual tradition, delivered in six different contests with the same crushing weight. But for once, Allen wasn’t the only superstar quarterback who had to endure heartbreak in 2025. In fact, he was the only one out of the so-called “Big Four” to even make it to the playoffs.

Three of the “Big Four” Crumble

Patrick Mahomes—the man who has ended the Bills’ hopes in four of the last five playoff campaigns before 2025—tore his ACL in a season-ending loss to the Chargers, triggering the Chiefs to miss the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Lamar Jackson also missed out after a fitness-issue-riddled campaign, while Joe Burrow’s persistent injury woes saw the Bengals miss out for the third straight season.

The New England Patriots were the team that took full advantage of a weaker-than-usual AFC. They surprisingly romped to the Conference Championship, defying the +3000 preseason odds that were given to them by online betting sites. Now, the early 2027 NFL futures at Bovada make them a +800 shot to return to the Super Bowl next year, with three of the big four—namely the Bills (+550), Ravens (+575), and Chiefs (+750)— all considered more likely.

So, what needs to change for these superstar quarterbacks to return to the summit? What do they need to prove both to themselves and to the rest of the league in 2026, if anything? Let’s take a look.

Mahomes: Watching the Kingdom Burn

Three Super Bowl rings. Three Super Bowl MVPs. Never missed the playoffs as a starter. Then 2025 happened, and suddenly Patrick Mahomes looked mortal. The Chiefs went 6-11, their worst record since 2012. Mahomes’ completion percentage dropped to 63.1%, his lowest mark as a starter. KC went 1-9 in one-score games after posting an NFL-record 11-0 in such contests the previous year. Is this how a dynasty dies?

“We had compounding mistakes throughout the season,” Mahomes said after the loss to the Chargers extinguished any faint hope they had of sneaking into the playoffs, and he wasn’t wrong. Joe Thuney left in free agency. Tershawn Wharton signed elsewhere. Justin Reid walked. The offensive line crumbled. The defense couldn’t stop anyone. And the less said about that toothless offense, the better.

Now what? Mahomes turns 31 in September. ACL rehab takes nine months minimum, which means his offseason program gets butchered. The roster’s stripped bare. Cap space is nonexistent after years of pushing money into future seasons. Kansas City needs offensive line help, weapons at receiver and running back are non-negotiable, while defensive reinforcements are sorely needed, too. They need all of it with no money to spend.

Here’s the uncomfortable question nobody wants to ask: Does Mahomes have another comeback in him? He’s coming off major knee surgery at 30. The supporting cast is gone. The AFC is hungrier and younger than ever. Another disappointing season knocks him out of the GOAT reckoning once and for all.

Jackson: Brilliance Wasted

Two MVP trophies. Zero conference championships. The story of Lamar Jackson’s career fits on a medical chart. Week 4 against Kansas City, the dual-threat sensation pulls his hamstring. He misses the next five games, and Baltimore loses four of them while John Harbaugh’s men uncharacteristically hemorrhage points left, right, and center.

Jackson returned five weeks later, but he wasn’t the same. For six straight weeks from November through December, he missed the first practice of every week with a rotating parade of injuries: knee, ankle, toe, and illness. The Ravens never scored more than 30 points in his 10 remaining starts—the longest single-season drought of his career. They finished 8-9 with a last-gasp missed field goal attempt on the final day of the season at Pittsburgh, ensuring that they shockingly missed the playoffs.

At what point does Baltimore ask the uncomfortable question: Is Jackson’s dual-threat style sustainable? How many times can a franchise bet on a quarterback who can’t stay healthy for 17 games? He’s 29 now. The injuries are accumulating. The playoff disappointments are mounting. The defense needs a complete overhaul after getting tormented repeatedly. They’re speculating about adding elite pass rushers, rebuilding the secondary, and maintaining offensive line continuity to protect Jackson’s increasingly fragile body.

Another injury-plagued campaign forces Baltimore into franchise-altering decisions about his contract structure and injury guarantees. Don’t kid yourself: if Jackson can’t stay on the field, none of his MVP brilliance matters, no matter how good he can be on his day.

Burrow: Made of Glass

The Bengals headed into 2025 with optimism, and that only grew when they began the season with a win for the first time in three years, beating their rival Cleveland Browns, on enemy territory in Week 1. Then, in Week 2, disaster strikes. Superstar quarterback Joe Burrow downed with turf toe, with the diagnosis confirming he’ll miss the majority of the season. Such stories are like clockwork in the Jungle.

This is the guy who came back from a destroyed knee to reach Super Bowl LVI in his second season. Who overcame 21-3 at Arrowhead in overtime to beat Mahomes in the AFC Championship. Who set Cincinnati franchise records with 4,611 passing yards and 34 touchdowns in 2021. Now, his body betrays him annually, and the Bengals are watching their championship window slam shut in real time.

The absurdity of Cincinnati playing Burrow in meaningless November games when they’re already eliminated infuriated some people. What were they thinking? Risking further damage to prove what exactly? Well, Burrow said it best: “We’re getting paid a lot of money to play a kid’s game. I love playing. I just want to put on a show for the fans, be out there with my guys, and go out and play well.” Basically, that’s just who he is, but after another disastrous playoff miss, Cincy’s third straight, surely the clock is ticking on his future at Paycor Stadium.

Burrow stated he “can’t see” a world where he’s not in Cincinnati in 2026, but another injury-shortened season forces both sides to reconsider. He’s 29. His prime years are disappearing due to injuries. The “what if” haunting Cincinnati grows louder every missed game: what if he’d stayed healthy? Would they have another ring by now? The tragedy isn’t that Burrow lacks talent—it’s that generational ability trapped in a body made of glass. Will 2021-2022 be remembered as his foundation or his peak?