AAF Picks (2019): 0-0 ($0)
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Atlanta Legends (0-0) at Orlando Apollos (0-0)
Line: Apollos by 7.5. Total: 51.
Saturday, Feb. 9, 8:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s difficult to envision the Legends – a stupid team name, if you ask me – getting anything going offensively. Their quarterback is Matt Simms, who earned a sizzling 49.5 passer rating in his only preseason game.
Plus, Atlanta’s head coach is Kevin Coyle, who used to be a defensive coordinator for the Bengals. I can’t imagine that he has a great offensive game plan prepared. He’ll have to counter Orlando defensive tackle Antonio Guerad, who has looked good in scrimmages.
ORLANDO OFFENSE: The Apollos’ starting quarterback will be Garrett Gilbert, who played some preseason games for the Rams from 2015 to 2018. Gilbert did somewhat well in the exhibition games, but wasn’t all that great in the AAF scrimmages. The Legends have one of the top defensive players in the league, Jeff Luc, on the other side. Luc could cause some problems for Gilbert.
That said, Steve Spurrier will be coaching Gilbert. Spurrier sucked in the NFL, but he’s had nothing to do for a while and undoubtedly has some new tricks up his sleeve. That, or he won’t know where he is by the second quarter.
RECAP: It’s odd to see a spread of 7.5 between two unknowns like this. I imagine the public is betting Orlando because of Spurrier.
Let’s fade the public! Spurrier is 73 years old and may not have his fastball anymore. I feel like we’re getting good value with Atlanta across the key number of seven.
Quick note: I’m not going to be betting these games heavily. I’ll continue to use the one unit equals $100 scale for simplicity, but I won’t be wagering very much, if anything, until I have a firm grasp of the players in this league.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
No data available.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 1 AAF Pick: Apollos 23, Legends 17
Legends +7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 51 (0 Units)
San Diego Fleet (0-0) at San Antonio Commanders (0-0)
Line: Commanders by 2. Total: 52.
Saturday, Feb. 9, 8:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Mike Martz is back! Martz hasn’t done anything with his life for a while, so he has undoubtedly been plotting some crazy offensive plays for his new coaching gig. I can’t wait to see what he comes up with. His quarterback is Mike Bercovici, who quarterbacked Arizona State in a pass-heavy attack.
I imagine that San Antonio will have a tough time containing receiver Dontez Ford, who has been unstoppable in scrimmages. If you somehow have access to an AAF DFS league, I would pair Bercovici and Ford.
SAN ANTONIO OFFENSE: The Commanders might have the worst offense in the AAF. Their quarterback is Dustin Vaughan, who put together a sterling passer rating of 42.6 in the lone preseason game he played.
Vaughan won’t have any help from his head coach, Mike Riley, who has been a failure everywhere he’s coached. He barely had a winning record in the CFL and something called the WLAF. He was just 19-19 at Nebraska.
RECAP: Martz is an underdog? Sign me up! This is my top bet of the week for the AAF.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
No data available.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 1 AAF Pick: Fleet 34, Commanders 17
Fleet +2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 52 (0 Units)
Memphis Express (0-0) at Birmingham Iron (0-0)
Line: Iron by 3. Total: 50.
Sunday, Feb. 10, 4:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
MEMPHIS OFFENSE: Christian Hackenberg never got a chance with the Jets, and rightfully so. He was horrible. However, he might just be the most physically gifted quarterback in the AAF. Not having to deal with NFL defenses should help Hackenberg thrive in a league more suited to his mental skill set.
OK, maybe not. I was a huge Hackenberg detractor when he was coming out of college, and that’s saying a lot because I’m a Penn State alumnus. Birmingham head coach Tim Lewis, a long-time defensive coach, should be able to trick Hackenberg into making some mistakes.
BIRMINGHAM OFFENSE: Luis Perez may not be as talented of a quarterback as Hackenberg, but he’s far more accurate. That was his calling card at Division-II Texas A&M Commerce. Perez led Commerce to a national championship in 2017, throwing for 46 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. He won the Division-II version of the Heisman.
Perez has some nice weapons to work with, including running back Trent Richardson, who could lead the AAF in rushing if he’s not 500 pounds.
RECAP: I don’t trust Hackenberg. He’ll throw some interceptions, while Perez should be more accurate with the football. I like the favorite to cover in this game.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
No data available.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 1 AAF Pick: Iron 31, Express 24
Iron -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 50 (0 Units)
Salt Lake Stallions (0-0) at Arizona Hotshots (0-0)
Line: Hotshots by 3.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Feb. 10, 8:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
SALT LAKE OFFENSE: It seems like the Stallions have one of the better quarterbacks in the AAF. Josh Woodrum played well for the Ravens in two preseasons, and he was stellar in the sole AAF preseason game, composing a passer rating of 83.7.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Salt Lake might have the best pass rush in the AAF with Tenny Palepoi and Karter Schult bringing the heat from the edge. Both looked great in scrimmages and could give Arizona’s offense some problems.
That said, Arizona quarterback is well protected behind left tackle Andrew Lauderdale, and he has a solid weapon at his disposal in Richard Mullaney. The Hotshots should be able to move the ball fairly well.
RECAP: The Hotshots are favored by more than a field goal because they have more NFL experience than any other AAF team. However, bad experience doesn’t count in my book. Thus, I’ll gladly take the hook on the key number of three.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
No data available.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 1 AAF Pick: Hotshots 27, Stallions 24
Stallions +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 52 (0 Units)
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