Quarterbacks Class
Early-round talent: D-Mid-round: D
Late-round: C-
Overall grade: D
Merging the 2025 and 2026 prospects
Fernando MendozaCam Ward
Ty Simpson
Jaxson Dart
Tyler Shough
Garrett Nussmeier
Jalen Milroe
Carson Beck
Drew Allar
Dillon Gabriel
Shedeur Sanders
Just to be clear, this article and series are all my opinion. I base my evaluation on my own film study and also on information I’ve gotten from general managers, directors of college scouting, national scouts, area scouts, and NFL coaches who know way more than I do.
This is a weak group of quarterback prospects, and as a result. It stacks up similarly to last year’s class. If you merged the two classes together, Mendoza would be the top prospect, followed by Ward. Simpson is a better prospect than Dart. I personally liked Shough more than Dart, but given his age and injury history entering the draft, it was understandable that he slid out of the first round. Nussmeier, Beck, and Allar are late third-round caliber players comparable to Milroe and Gabriel. Sanders is the outlier, as he was an early-round talent who slid because of a variety of other concerns.
Safest Pick: Fernando Mendoza, Indiana 
Previous Picks:2025 Shedeur Sanders
2024 Drake Maye
2023 C.J. Stroud
2022 Kenny Pickett
2021 Trevor Lawrence
2020 Joe Burrow
2019 Daniel Jones
2018 Sam Darnold
2017 Pat Mahomes
2016 Carson Wentz
2015 Jameis Winston
2014 Derek Carr
2013 Geno Smith
This year, my choice was easy as I believe that Mendoza is the safest of the quarterback prospects to turn into a quality starter. He is a very accurate passer who makes good decisions, is tough, has a power arm, is smart, and is prepared for being a pro.
Biggest Bust Potential: NONE
Previous Picks
2025 Jaxson Dart
2024 J.J. McCarthy
2023 Anthony Richardson
2022 Desmond Ridder
2021 Mac Jones
2020 Jordan Love
2019 Kyler Murray
2018 Mason Rudolph
2017 Mitch Trubisky
2016 Connor Cook
2015 Brett Hundley
2014 Johnny Manziel
2013 Mike Glennon
There are likely to be only two quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds, with Mendoza and Ty Simpson. I don’t think either of them will be a bust. I could see the possibility where some other quarterbacks like Cade Klubnik, Carson Beck, or Drew Allar disappoint and don’t stick in the NFL. However, they are going to be mid-round or day-three prospects with backup grades. If they don’t stick in the NFL, that is not a true bust, as the vast majority of mid-round and day-three picks don’t develop pro careers.
Quarterback Rankings by Attributes
Accuracy:
NFL prototype: Jared Goff, Lions
- Fernando Mendoza
- Ty Simpson
- Garrett Nussmeier
- Carson Beck
- Drew Allar
Recap: The most important characteristic for any quarterback in the NFL is accuracy. Not only do accurate quarterbacks reduce turnovers and maintain time of possession, but they also increase the opportunities for skill-position players to make a bigger impact. Thus, accurate signal-callers will give teams more return on their dollars with high-priced wide receivers. It takes an accurate quarterback to be a weapon as a pocket passer, and the elite quarterbacks are able to beat good coverage with precision passes into tight windows.
Mendoza has advanced and impressive ball placement, as he is superb at throwing back shoulder and fade passes. With superb location, Mendoza routinely puts the ball where his receiver can make a play, or the pass will go incomplete. Mendoza does a great job of avoiding interceptions, and it was very rare to see him make an interception-worthy throw in 2025. With good accuracy, Mendoza is capable of beating tight coverage with the location of his passes.
Simpson has phenomenal accuracy. His ball placement is superb as he routinely throws perfect passes into tight windows. With natural loft and timing, Simpson fits his passes into tight windows and beats good coverage by being supremely accurate. Simpson leads his receivers for more yards after the catch. Along with throwing receivers open, Simpson throws passes with good loft and is able to give his wideouts a very catchable ball.
Nussmeier’s accuracy and ball placement are inconsistent and streaky. He can get rattled, and that really hampers his decision-making, accuracy, and effectiveness. Other times, he gets hot and throws very accurately for stretches. Nussmeier has potential, but needs to become more consistent.
Beck has flashes of good accuracy, but he is inconsistent with his accuracy. If given a clean pocket with receivers getting some separation, Beck can throw some impressive strikes. However, Beck can get rattled by the rush, and that impacts his accuracy significantly. Beck has to improve his accuracy while throwing in the face of a rush.
Allar flashes accuracy, but he is inconsistent. Occasionally, Allar will have some passes off the mark, and he needs to get better at throwing the ball with precision in the short to intermediate part of the field.
Arm Strength:
NFL prototype: Josh Allen, Bills
- Fernando Mendoza
- Carson Beck
- Drew Allar
- Ty Simpson
- Garrett Nussmeier
Recap: The quarterback with the strongest arm doesn’t always mean that much, but there are throws that powerful-armed quarterbacks can make that average quarterbacks can only dream of making. So a powerful arm is another weapon that can lead to points, wins, and miserable days for defenses.
In this group, they all have above-average arms at a minimum. Mendoza has easy arm strength. There is no doubt that Mendoza has a power arm capable of firing fastballs into tight windows to beat good coverage, and the ability to easily push the ball vertically down the field. Beck has a powerful arm. The ball jumps out of his hand, and he can really spin it. Going vertically, Beck has easy strength to push the ball deep downfield. Allar has a strong arm and can go vertical and make all the throws with ease. While Simpson and Nussmeier do not have elite power arms by NFL standards, they each have solid arm strength for the NFL.
Field Vision:
NFL prototype: Pat Mahomes, Chiefs
- Fernando Mendoza
- Ty Simpson
- Garrett Nussmeier
- Carson Beck
- Drew Allar
Recap: Field vision is one characteristic that separates the elite quarterbacks of the NFL. Quarterbacks who throw a lot of interceptions are inclined to lock onto their primary reads and stare down receivers. Signal-callers with good field vision can quickly work through their progressions and see more than a receiver on a route. They can also help get wideouts open by looking off safeties and playing games with their eyes. Many college quarterbacks enter the NFL with subpar field vision and have to improve this at the next level.
Mendoza reads the field well and works through his progressions. He is an intelligent quarterback who understands coverages and knows where his receivers are going to be. Mendoza doesn’t panic when his first option isn’t open and is calm in the pocket to work through his reads. With his height and development, Mendoza should have field vision as a strength throughout his career.
Simpson reads the field well, works through his progressions, has advanced field vision, and makes good decisions. Nussmeier has developed reading skills as he works through progressions and shows development in his field vision. Some games he seemed like he was seeing everything and then others he seemed like he was getting flustered or confused. The same issue plagued Beck, and Beck reads coverage well when he has a clean pocket. His vision suffers when he sees pressure. Allar is similar and inconsistent in his field vision. He needs to improve at not locking on his primary read and working through progressions.
Decision-Making:
NFL prototype: Joe Burrow, Bengals
- Fernando Mendoza
- Ty Simpson
- Drew Allar
- Garrett Nussmeier
- Carson Beck
Recap: Mendoza and Simpson were excellent decision-makers last season. Mendoza took a big step forward in this regard compared to his previous years at Cal. Last year, Mendoza made great decisions on where he was going with the ball and was exceptional at avoiding interception-worthy throws. Simpson (5) was phenomenal, throwing one fewer interception than Mendoza (6). Simpson did not have as many games and entered the NFL as a one-year starter, thus Mendoza gets the edge. But decision-making was a strong suit for Simpson. He didn’t throw recklessly into coverage, and he threw passes away rather than force a pass that had potential for a turnover. Both of these quarterbacks have advanced and impressive decision-making.
The next three were not nearly as good, and there is a big dropoff. Allar was injured last year and totaled 11 interceptions over the past two seasons. His decision-making wasn’t horrible, but there were some mistakes. Nussmeier had 17 interceptions over the past two seasons. He has some gunslinger in him, and he will need to cut down on some gambling as a pro. Beck can be feast-or-famine, but he threw 24 interceptions over the past two years. He gets rattled by pass rush, and then he struggles with turnovers and accuracy. Improving his decision-making when under pressure is a vital area of improvement for Beck to have hopes of being an NFL starter.
Mobility:
NFL prototype: Lamar Jackson, Ravens
- Ty Simpson
- Fernando Mendoza
- Garrett Nussmeier
- Drew Allar
- Carson Beck
Recap: Simpson is a capable scrambler and has good mobility in the pocket. He can dodge pass rushers, rip off yards on the ground, and complete passes downfield after scrambling. Mendoza is a quality athlete that has some scrambling and running ability, but he won’t be a real running threat at the pro level. Nussmeier, Allar, and Beck are pocket passers that can move around some but are not running threats for the NFL.
