Picking first doesn’t mean picking smart. Every spring, NFL teams bet millions on college stars they hope can save the franchise. Most picks work out. Some don’t. And a handful go so wrong they set a team back for a decade.

The draft is basically a gamble with huge stakes. GMs study film, test IQ scores, clock 40-yard dashes, and still miss. Fans who follow the odds from pick 1 through the seventh round see the live markets swing in real time, a lot like how crypto betting odds move on a busy Sunday. So which picks rank as the worst ever? Here’s a look at 10 of them, with the numbers that made them famous for all the wrong reasons.

Quick Look at the Worst NFL Draft Busts

1. JaMarcus Russell Tops the Worst Draft Picks in NFL History

Russell was the top pick in 2007. The Raiders gave him $31.5 million in guaranteed cash on a six-year, $68 million deal. They got 31 games and 18 touchdowns out of him.

He also threw 23 interceptions. His completion rate? 52.1% across 680 attempts. Not great. Oh, and Calvin Johnson, a future Hall of Famer, went right after him at pick 2. Joe Thomas, another Hall of Famer, went at 3. So the Raiders picked Russell ahead of both. Oakland cut him in May 2010 and then cycled through starting quarterbacks for years after. The franchise didn’t make the playoffs for another 9 seasons.

2. Ryan Leaf, Forever Tied to Peyton Manning

The 1998 draft had two top QBs. The Colts took Peyton Manning. The Chargers took Ryan Leaf second. One played 18 NFL seasons and won two Super Bowls. The other played 25 games total.

Leaf’s career line reads like a typo: 14 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, 48.4% completion, a 4-17 record as a starter, and a passer rating of 50.0. But the damage went even deeper than his stats. San Diego could have grabbed Charles Woodson at 4, Randy Moss at 21, or Alan Faneca at 26 with that same draft. Instead, they spent years chasing the ghost of a QB who flamed out before age 26 and later went to prison on drug charges. NFL Network ranked him the #1 QB bust of all time.

3. Tony Mandarich, “The Incredible Bulk” Who Wasn’t

Sports Illustrated called Mandarich the best offensive line prospect ever. The Packers took him 2nd overall in 1989. They passed on Barry Sanders, who went right after at pick 3.

How bad was this one? The top 5 of that draft had Troy Aikman at 1, Mandarich at 2, Barry Sanders at 3, Derrick Thomas at 4, and Deion Sanders at 5. Four Hall of Famers and Tony Mandarich. He started 31 games across four years in Green Bay. He allowed 21 sacks and 36 knockdowns before the Packers cut him. He later admitted to using steroids at Michigan State, which explains why his college tape looked otherworldly. Barry Sanders would rush for 15,269 yards in Detroit. The miss is probably the biggest what-if in Packers history.

4. Akili Smith and the Trade the Bengals Should Have Taken

In 1999, the Bengals sat at pick 3. Mike Ditka’s Saints offered Cincinnati nine draft picks (multiple that year and more the next) to trade down so New Orleans could grab Ricky Williams. Cincy said no.

They took Akili Smith from Oregon instead. In four seasons, Smith started just 17 games and went 3-14. He threw 5 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his entire career. Five scores. For a top-3 QB. His career passer rating was 52.8 on a 46.6% completion rate. Ditka’s package could have set up the Bengals for a decade. Passing on it is still one of the biggest NFL draft mistakes any front office has made in the modern era.

5. Ki-Jana Carter’s Knee and Cincinnati’s Rotten Luck

Two busts in a row for the Bengals? Yes, really. Cincinnati traded up to pick Carter #1 overall in 1995. He signed the richest rookie deal in league history at that time: 7 years, $19.2 million, with a $7.125 million signing bonus.

Then came his third carry of his first preseason game. Torn ligament in the knee. He missed the entire rookie season. And Carter never really came back. His career total: 1,144 rushing yards across 319 carries, 20 touchdowns, and a 3.6 yards-per-carry average. He bounced between the Bengals, Washington, and the Saints before leaving the league in 2004. A brutal break for a player who looked like the next Emmitt Smith in college, where he racked up 2,829 yards at Penn State.

6. Trent Richardson and the 3.3 Yards Per Carry Disaster

Richardson went 3rd overall to the Browns in 2012. Cleveland loved his tape from Alabama. They loved it so much they traded up one spot to grab him. His four-year contract was $20.4 million fully guaranteed.

That worked out well, right? Nope. Richardson ran for 950 yards as a rookie, then got worse. Much worse. Cleveland traded him to the Colts two games into year 2 for a first-round pick. His full NFL line: 2,032 rushing yards on 614 carries, averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. The Browns used the pick they got from Indy in a package to move up and draft… Johnny Manziel. One bust funded another. More on him in a minute.

7. Charles Rogers and the Andre Johnson Who Got Away

Detroit took Rogers from Michigan State 2nd overall in 2003. He looked unstoppable in college. Then he broke his collarbone as a rookie, and things spiraled fast.

Rogers totaled 440 receiving yards across his entire NFL career. Just 440. He failed three drug tests under the NFL substance abuse policy and was cut in 2006. The receiver taken right after him at pick 3? Andre Johnson, who put up 14,185 career yards and made the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2024. Detroit’s bad luck with receivers would continue for years, but Rogers remains the low point. He passed away in 2019 at age 38.

8. Vernon Gholston: $18 Million, Zero Sacks

The Jets took Gholston 6th in 2008. They paid him $21 million guaranteed on a 5-year, $32 million deal. His total NFL sack count: zero.

Yes, zero. In 45 games played. A first-round pass rusher with no sacks to his name. Gholston had 42 career tackles and was released after 3 seasons with Gang Green. Chicago signed him in 2011. Cut him a month later. St. Louis did the same a year later. His Ohio State tape was wild (14 sacks in 13 games as a senior) and he crushed the combine (37 bench reps, 4.58 40-yard dash). But none of it showed up on Sundays. He banked around $18 million for the effort.

9. Johnny Manziel’s Wild Ride in Cleveland

Johnny Football won the Heisman as a freshman. The Browns traded up to grab him at pick 22 in 2014. His NFL career lasted just 14 games over two seasons.

Manziel threw 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for 1,675 yards. He also dealt with serious off-field issues, partying, and a bipolar disorder diagnosis he shared later. Cleveland released him in March 2016. He tried the CFL, the short-lived AAF, and fan-controlled leagues after that. The Browns used two first-round picks on QBs in 3 years (Brandon Weeden in 2012, Manziel in 2014), and both flopped hard. Cleveland wouldn’t get real QB stability until Baker Mayfield arrived in 2018.

10. Heath Shuler Closes the List of Biggest NFL Draft Mistakes

Washington took Shuler 3rd overall in 1994 out of Tennessee. He played 4 NFL seasons. He started 19 games and completed 47.4% of his throws.

Shuler finished with 15 touchdowns against 33 interceptions and a passer rating around 54. Washington picked him ahead of Trent Dilfer at 6 (who later won a Super Bowl ring) and, more painfully, ahead of Gus Frerotte, whom Washington took in round 7 of the same draft with pick 197. Frerotte out-played Shuler almost right away. Shuler later retired from football and became a US Congressman from North Carolina, probably a better second career than the first.

What These Worst NFL Draft Busts Teach Fans

The common thread? Most of these players were “can’t-miss” picks on draft night. Scouts loved them. The media hyped them for weeks. Then the NFL happened.

Injuries wrecked some (Carter, Rogers). Off-field problems sank others (Manziel, Leaf). A few were just evaluation misses (Gholston, Mandarich). The cost for teams goes well past one bad season. Missing on a franchise QB often means 7 to 10 years of losing before finding the next guy, plus wasted drafts, free agency cycles, and coaching changes. The Raiders, Browns, Bengals, and Lions know this feeling too well. Teams that nail these picks win championships. Teams that whiff get to pick early again next April, hoping the next “sure thing” actually pans out.