NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2025 – Early Games

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
Line: Rams by 10.5. Total: 46.5.
Saturday, Jan. 10, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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Week 18 Analysis: We had another solid week to close out the regular season. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Vikings, 4 units (win): We won, but we’re lucky we had -12.5 instead of -13.5 because there was a shady field goal just as time expired. Given our luck, I’m surprised the final margin wasn’t 12 instead of 13.

Bengals, 3 units (win): Speaking of bad luck, we had one final bad beat of the regular season. We had the Bengals at -7.5. They lost by two, but they outgained the Browns, 364-200. They lost because Joe Burrow had a tipped pass in the red zone returned for a pick-six, and then Noah Fant lost a fumble at midfield that was also returned for a touchdown. The Browns scored 14 bogus points and probably should have lost, 21-6.

Patriots, 5 units (win): The Dolphins hung around longer than I thought they would, but the Patriots ultimately covered easily.

Rams, 3 units (win): The Rams trailed in the second half, but had an absolutely dominant fourth quarter to win by 17, covering as a 14-point favorite.

Broncos, 3 units (win): We finally had some good luck go our way, which was nice. The Chargers nearly back doored at the very end, but two of their touchdowns were negated by penalty and replay review.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: There’s a misconception that Matthew Stafford had a miserable game against the Panthers in a loss that occurred about a month ago. While Stafford didn’t have his best performance, he still moved the chains with ease. He threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts. Sure, he was picked twice, but one of the interceptions was a on a fluky batted ball. The other was pick-sixed in an error that Stafford generally doesn’t make.

Stafford should be able to rebound this week. The Panthers have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Stafford will enjoy a clean pocket, especially with some offensive linemen expected to be back from injury. Davante Adams is also expected to play, so Stafford will have all hands on deck to expose Carolina’s poor pass defense.

The Panthers are even worse against the run, and we saw that in the prior matchup. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ripped off 153 rushing yards on just 20 combined carries in the prior matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young has been incredibly inconsistent this year. He’s occasionally resembled a Pro Bowl quarterback. In other instances, he’s looked like a practice squad player. Young performed like the former in the first matchup between these teams. Young went 15-of-20 for 206 yards and three touchdowns, constantly torching the Rams with deep bombs.

It would be shocking if Young had a similar performance. The Rams seemed to be going through the motions in this game because they were battling what was perceived to be a poor opponent following a blowout of a better team on national TV. It was simply a flat spot, so the Rams didn’t play well defensively. They’ve been dominant on this side of the ball, especially with their pass rush, so they should have a much better chance of rattling Young.

Like the Rams, the Panthers also ran well in the prior matchup. This felt more like a fluke. Whereas the Panthers are 22nd against the run, the Rams are 10th, so it seems unlikely that Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle will combine for anything close to 141 rushing yards again.

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised to see the public come in on Carolina. The Panthers beat the Rams back in Week 13, after all, so getting double digits may seem like a sure win to the uninformed.

There are some things wrong with this line of thinking. First, the prior matchup should be disregarded because the Rams had one of their worst efforts of the year. As mentioned, the Rams were coming off a blowout win on national TV. They also had a divisional battle on the horizon. They didn’t put forth maximum effort into the Carolina game.

Also, I must mention something that Andy Iskoe brings up on our Wednesday livestream. Andy has pointed out that every team will have three or so games each season where they play worse than their capabilities and three games each year where they play well above their capabilities. I believe the Week 13 Rams-Panthers game was a confluence of both. The Rams played their worst game of the year, while the Panthers played their best game of the year. Even if both teams are average this Saturday, we could see a blowout.

The reason I believe this will be a blowout is because the Rams are a far better team than the Panthers. The metrics agree – the Rams are No. 1 overall in EPA, while Carolina is No. 24 – and the Panthers have been outscored by 69 points this year, the worst point differential of any team ever to enter the NFL playoffs. And in the other two games against Group A teams this year, the Panthers lost to the Bills, 40-9, and to the Seahawks, 27-10. Both games were in Carolina. I believe we’ll see a similar result. This might be my December NFL Pick of the Month.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s been brought to my attention that the two double-digit home underdogs in playoff history have covered the spread. I don’t really care about this because it’s a very small sample size. Also, this Panthers team is a 5-12 squad that I would consider to be the worst playoff team I’ve ever seen in my life.

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
Line: Packers by 1. Total: 45.5.
Saturday, Jan. 10, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 27-51-1 heading into Week 18.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -9.5

49ers +3

Eagles -4

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers +4.5

Bears -1

Patriots -3.5

The No. 1 public team is an underdog, which is a bit surprising.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that the Packers will be radically different offensively than they were in Week 18. They started Clayton Tune, but “No Cookie” Jordan Love was cleared to play from his concussion. There was no reason to put him on the field in a meaningless game, however, so Love and the other significant starters all sat.

Quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first game back from concussion, but given that Love was cleared last week, it seems likely that he’ll be just fine for this contest. If so, he shouldn’t have a problem dissecting Chicago’s defense. The Bears have the second-fewest quarterback pressures in the NFL, so Love will be able to dissect Chicago’s secondary, just a Brock Purdy and Jared Goff have done the past couple of weeks.

The Bears won’t have better luck stopping Green Bay’s rushing attack. Josh Jacobs is expected to be healthy after being banged up a couple of weeks ago. He wasn’t at full strength in the Week 16 matchup between these teams, but he will be in this contest. He’ll have success against the Bears’ 21st-ranked run defense.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If we were discussing this matchup two months ago, I’d talk about how the Packers have a better defense, which would give them a far better chance of winning. Green Bay won the first contest between these teams in a game in which it was constantly ahead. The Bears couldn’t muster much offensively until late in the game, which, to be fair, is the norm for them for the most part.

Things have changed, however. Micah Parsons is out, which has severely diminished the pass rush and the defense overall. The Bears have a great offensive line that gives Caleb Williams all the time he needs. Parsons was a way for the Packers to beat Chicago’s pass protection, but that’s no longer a possibility.

The Chicago offensive line is even better at opening running lanes for the team’s two backs. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are both in the top five in yards before contact. The Packers are 15th against the run, so Swift and Monangai should both perform well.

RECAP: If Parsons were still healthy, I’d like the Packers. Of course, the spread would be higher than what it is now, but I don’t think it would be above Green Bay -3. I think I’d take the Packers as a three-point road favorite in Chicago with Parsons playing.

Parsons, however, is sidelined, so these teams are dead even. We saw this in their Week 16 matchup when they went to overtime. The Bears won in the extra period, but only because the Packers lost a fumble on their first possession. Had that not occurred, there’s a good chance the Bears would have been forced into going for two following the deep Williams touchdown to D.J. Moore.

I truly believe this game is a toss-up. The Bears should be laying a point or a point-and-a-half for being at home, so the spread is fair. Thus, I can’t give you any sort of confident pick. In fact, this is my least-confidence selection of the week.

I’m going to side with the Packers, though I may change my mind later in the week. When in doubt, fade the public. The public loves the Bears for some reason, so we’ll go with Green Bay.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Packers, but there’s still a chance it was phantom line movement to get a better number on the Bears. My biggest bet concerning these two teams is fading the winner in Round 2.