NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
2024 NFL Picks: 106-92-9 (-$1,520)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Despite beating the Cardinals by double digits in the first meeting, the Seahawks didn’t run the ball very well. They tried to do so with Kenneth Walker, but he was barely able to eclipse 40 rushing yards. Arizona struggled earlier in the year to defend the run, but has gotten much better against it.

Despite not being able to run with Walker, the Seahawks were still able to move the chains in their 16-6 victory. They did so via the passing game, primarily targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who out-produced D.K. Metcalf. Smith-Njigba has been excellent of late, and there’s no reason to think that he’ll regress at all in the same matchup.

Metcalf should be a bigger factor in the passing attack this time, especially given that the Cardinals can allow production to outside receivers. Walker should also be a contributor as a receiver out of the backfield. He had 11 more receiving yards than rushing yards despite leading for most of the afternoon.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals scored just six points in the loss to Seattle two weeks ago. They had a chance for more, but Kyler Murray missed a couple of open receivers for touchdowns in the game. Murray hasn’t been incredibly sharp since the bye, as he had a whacky interception while leading against the Vikings last week.

Murray will have to do it all himself in this game because the Seahawks are impossible to run against. This was not the case earlier in the season, namely October, when Seattle went into a swoon with losses to the Giants and other pedestrian opponents. Leonard Williams was hurt, but ever since he recovered from his injury, Seattle has been one of the most dominant units against the run. James Conner mustered only eight rushing yards in this matchup two weeks ago.

Murray will at least be able to move the chains by targeting Trey McBride. While the Seahawks are now terrific against the run, they can’t stop tight ends at all. McBride, who has been on fire, hauled in 12 balls for 133 yards at Seattle.

RECAP: I didn’t know what to make of the first Seahawks-Cardinals game, and I almost have similar feelings about this one. These teams are similar, and if they had to play each other 10 times, I think both teams would win on five occasions.

However, there is an odd element here, and that would be the fact that the Seahawks and Cardinals just battled each other two weeks ago. The NFL has started matching teams up twice in a span of three weeks recently, and it’s had some interesting results. Teams that have lost in these situations have bounced back at a high rate. They’re 49-34 against the spread, which is a 59-percent cover rate. If you remove teams that are highly favored (-6 or more), they are 46-31 ATS in the revenge game.

I hate handicapping with trends, but this one makes sense. It’s almost like the zig-zag rule in the NBA playoffs. The Cardinals are going to be able to construct a quality game plan to combat the Seahawks, and Seattle may not be ready for it.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting a great number, so I’m not going to be betting this highly, or anything. I think the Cardinals are worth a small wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some buzz about DK Metcalf being injured, but he was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so there’s a good chance he plays this week. Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice, so that could be something to watch the rest of the week.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re still awaiting some injury news, so no props here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf returned to a full practice on Friday. Kenneth Walker was DNP, but I’m not concerned about that. Walker has not run well lately, and Zach Charbonnet is a premium backup.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kenneth Walker is out, but as I wrote above, it’s not a big deal for me. The sharps have bet the Cardinals up to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps bet the Cardinals up to -3, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 73% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road team has won 13 of the past 19 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Cardinals are 51-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Bills had a great defensive performance in the snow on Sunday night. Matt Milano’s return was expected to be a huge factor, but it really wasn’t. Milano played about two-thirds of the snaps and wasn’t very effective. The Bills surrendered some big gains to the San Francisco running backs. Granted, it was difficult to run in the snow, but a fully healthy Milano would have negated some of this.

There’s a chance Milano will play much better this week in his second game back in action inside a dome. The Bills will need him to be better because the Rams will utilize both running backs heavily. Both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum were involved versus the Saints, and the Rams will want to use the same game plan to keep Buffalo’s offense off the field.

Matthew Stafford won’t have as much success throwing, given that the Bills are terrific against outside receivers. Puka Nacua has been excellent since returning from injury, but he’ll have his work cut out for him in this matchup, as will Stafford, who will be dealing with a pass rush ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate. Alaric Jackson will be needed back for this matchup.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Keeping Josh Allen off the field will be vital for the Rams because they don’t have the personnel to stop what the Bills are trying to do. Two weeks ago, the Eagles came into Los Angeles and steamrolled the Rams with Saquon Barkley. Last week, Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill picked up some tough yards on the ground against Los Angeles until Hill suffered his season-ending injury.

The Bills are going to run effectively with Allen and James Cook. Allen previously said that he won’t do much scrambling early in the season to preserve himself, but he would be more active with his legs later in the season. He could have a big rushing day, as could Cook, who is always capable of breaking a big gain.

The Rams also happen to be weak against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has been out the past two games, so perhaps he’ll return to action. Even if he doesn’t, Dawson Knox has proven that he can be productive as a replacement.

RECAP: I like the Rams. Not in this game, but in general. They’re well coached, they have an improved defense, they have several offensive weapons, they’re quarterbacked at a high level, and they have good talent on their offensive line. I bet them at +400 to win the division prior to the season for all of these reasons.

However, while the Rams are a very good team, they’re not a great team. I don’t think they can reliably beat the best teams in the NFL. We saw this phenomenon a couple of weeks ago when the Eagles went into Los Angeles and dominated the Rams. The Bills are on the same level as the Eagles. They don’t have Saquon Barkley, but Allen can use his legs or hand the ball off to Cook and generate big gains.

The one caveat here is that the Bills may not be focused because it’s a potential sandwich situation. They’re coming off a statement win on national TV against the 49ers, and after this game, they have to take on the Lions. If they’re unprepared for the Rams, they could suffer a surprising loss, but it’s possible that they’ll be ready to take on Los Angeles, perhaps viewing this as a business trip of sorts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alaric Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice, which is a huge deal against Buffalo’s pass rush. The Bills, meanwhile, had everyone back in some capacity, including Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, both of whom were limited.

PLAYER PROPS: The Rams allow big games to tight ends, but we don’t know if Dalton Kincaid will be available. I’ll like Kincaid or Dawson Knox, depending on who starts.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alaric Jackson might be back this week with two limited sessions in practice. There’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent even if he returns. I’m still leaning toward the Bills.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may bet the Bills if I see a viable -3 line. We discussed Josh Allen versus the NFC on the After Dark show last night:

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Rams. However, I said I’d bet the Bills if I saw a viable -3 line. We have just that at Bookmaker. The line is -3 -124. This is going to be a one-unit wager. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Bills are coming off a big win against the 49ers. After this game, they take on the Lions.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: Bills -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 80% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Figs. My dentist’s office is packed with attractive female workers. How badly would I crash and burn with them if I were single?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: A huge difference between the 49ers this year and last year, even when they were winning, was the red zone offense. They were first in the red zone last year, but have constantly been in the bottom five this season. I thought Christian McCaffrey’s return to the lineup would help, but it didn’t. Now, we know it won’t because McCaffrey is out for the year, as is Jordan Mason.

The 49ers still have Isaac Guerendo to run the ball against a weak rush defense, but the 49ers’ inability to produce deep in enemy territory will still be prevalent. Guerendo’s effectiveness will also depend on the availability of the San Francisco offensive linemen. Trent Williams and Aaron Banks were both sidelined against the Bills. The Bears can generate quality pressure on the quarterback, so they’ll be able to exploit weaknesses on the 49ers front line if Williams and Banks are out again. Williams was using a scooter to get around the locker room last week because it hurt too much to walk, so that’s not a good sign.

McCaffrey, Williams, and Banks weren’t the only injured San Francisco offensive players last week. Brandon Aiyuk has been out for a while, and it doesn’t seem as though Deebo Samuel is healthy. This is very significant if Williams is sidelined because George Kittle has to block more when the All-Pro left tackle is out of the lineup. Thus, Brock Purdy’s weapons could once again be limited.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The 49ers have plenty of injuries on this side of the ball as well. Nick Bosa has been sidelined the past two weeks, while the other All-Pro defender on the roster, Fred Warner, admitted that he’s playing on a fractured ankle. Warner’s diminished play is one of the reasons why the 49ers have missed so many tackles this year.

D’Andre Swift is excellent at forcing missed tackles, so this seems like a good matchup for the Bears. Swift already figured to have a big game because the 49ers are currently ranked 26th in adjusted EPA rush defense.

Caleb Williams should also do well while dodging defenders. Williams has played much better ever since the Bears made an offensive coordinator change. He’s running more, which will work if Josh Allen’s performance on Sunday night is any indication. Williams should have plenty of success targeting the red-hot Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet because the 49ers have fared poorly against slot receivers and tight ends.

RECAP: The 49ers are the second of the three falling knives I initially mentioned in the Dolphins-Jets pick capsule. Everyone keeps expecting the 49ers to bounce back, but they won’t do it. Instead, they blow leads, suffer colossal defeats, or barely squeak by bad or injury-ravaged teams like the Mike Evans-less Buccaneers.

Now, the 49ers have even more injuries than before. McCaffrey and several others have been ruled out for the year. We’ll see if Williams and Bosa both play, but there’s no guarantee that either will be 100 percent even if they suit up.

I definitely like the Bears, and it’s not just a play against San Francisco. Chicago has changed coaches, which is usually bullish for the short term. Players often will try harder than usual because they don’t want the finger pointed at them. Besides, the Bears could easily have a much better record than they do now. If you only reverse the Hail Mary and blocked field goal, they’re 6-6. If you give them the win versus Detroit, they’re 7-5. If the Bears were 7-5, they wouldn’t be getting more than a field goal against this overrated San Francisco team.

The Bears are a top play this week, though it’s vital to see who exactly will be playing for the 49ers. Check back later for updates, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams and Nick Bosa both missed Wednesday’s practice, but the Bears had some injuries as well with D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, and Keenan Allen all missing practice on Wednesday as well. I won’t be as interested in the Bears if all of those players are sidelined.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re waiting on injury news to D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift, so I may have something here on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift were limited on Friday. They’re both listed as questionable. Of course, the big news is with the 49ers. Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are out again, as is Dre Greenlaw. Aaron Banks is questionable, but he didn’t practice once this week. Talanoa Hufanga and Deommodore Lenoir figure to return, but it won’t be enough.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift are expected to play, which is obviously great news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift will play. The sharps have been betting the Bears all week. The best line is +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Bears are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Bears are 22-42 ATS in December road games the previous 64 instances.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s weird to say that an 11-1 team isn’t playing well, but that’s the case with the Chiefs. They have trouble moving the chains at times, stemming from their poor edge blocking. They’ve gone through multiple left tackles and haven’t found a solution. Now, they get to go up against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. What could possibly happen?

Well, the Chiefs could actually block well. Confused? Well, Kansas City signed D.J. Humphries a couple of weeks ago. Humphries is a talented tackle who has overcome an injury, and he’s finally ready to play this week. His presence could help Mahomes quite a bit. The Chargers have some injuries in the secondary, so the opportunities will be there for Mahomes if he has ample time in the pocket.

Speaking of Charger injuries, the team has been without Denzel Perryman for the past couple of weeks. Perryman has been the key to stopping the run, so his absence would be huge in this game because this will be Isiah Pacheco’s second contest back from injury. Pacheco wasn’t very involved against the Raiders on Black Friday, but he’ll have a greater workload in this better matchup.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chiefs have had their struggles on this side of the ball as well. They haven’t been able to defend opposing passing games at all, surrendering huge performances to Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell of all quarterbacks. If they couldn’t stop Young or O’Connell, how will they deal with Justin Herbert?

Herbert should thrive in this matchup, provided he can be protected. The offensive line has usually been a strength this season, but the blocking was non-existent last week, with Atlanta’s horrible pass rush surrendering five sacks. The Chiefs can get after the quarterback, so perhaps Herbert will feel the pressure once again.

The Chiefs will have the luxury of focusing on the passing attack. This wouldn’t have been the case if J.K. Dobbins were still on the team, but he has landed on injured reserve. Gus Edwards is a horrible back who shouldn’t be in the NFL, and he won’t muster any sort of yardage against a stout rush defense.

RECAP: The Chiefs treat the regular season as if they were an NBA team. They goof around and seldom try 100 percent. They experiment by doing weird things on the goal line. They’re hardly at peak efficiency.

Kansas City will, however, show up if it feels threatened. This occurred in the season opener when the Chiefs got out to a huge lead against the Ravens. It also occurred in the middle of the season when the Chiefs battled the 49ers and won by 10. I think this is going to be a similar instance. The Chargers have made some noise and are seen as a threat in the playoffs. They’re 8-4, so if they win this game, they’ll be just two behind Kansas City in the standings. And everyone is talking about how bad the Chiefs have been the past couple of weeks.

This is typically where the Chiefs shine. Furthermore, the Chargers are no longer at full strength. They lost their only viable running back, and they’ve had some injuries on defense. I could perhaps buy them as being the play if they were completely healthy, but that is definitely not the case anymore.

Despite what I just wrote, I don’t think I’ll be betting Kansas City heavily, or even at all. They have been that bad recently. I think they’ll turn things around, but I could be dead wrong about that. We’ll have to see what the injury report looks like before I make any final determination.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Great news for the Chargers: Ladd McConkey, Denzel Perryman, and Cam Hart were all limited in practice. I considered the Chiefs as a bet if the Chargers continued to be banged up, but I’m not there right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Denzel Perryman is doubtful, which is horrible news for the Chargers. Ladd McConkey is questionable after being limited all week, but he may not be 100 percent if he plays. I’ve decided to bet three units on the Chiefs. I love that everyone is doubting them; it’s almost like they’re coming off a loss, and they have the luxury of two extra days of preparation. The Chargers have looked bad the past two weeks, despite the win in Atlanta, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs won this game convincingly.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Isiah Pacheco made his return last week. He had just as many carries as Kareem Hunt, but he was just getting his feet wet. He’ll see a much larger workload this week, and he’ll be battling a run defense that is so much worse without Denzel Perryman. The best number is over 48.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw the Pacheco over rushing yards in a same-game parlay with DeAndre Hopkins over 42.5 receiving yards, Will Dissly over 35.5 receiving yards, and Joshua Palmer over 34.5 receiving yards. The Chargers have been weak to No. 1 receivers as well. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have struggled versus tight ends and No. 2 receivers. Palmer may seem like an odd pick, but he’s gone over 34.5 receiving yards in all but two games since Week 4. This $25 parlay pays $271.40 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: D.J. Humphries is expected to start, which should be a huge boost for the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: D.J. Humphries is indeed playing, while Ladd McConkey is out. This has caused sharp money to come in on Kansas City, driving the line up to -4.5. The best line is -4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 61% (183,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 18 of the last 21 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 95-25 SU, 63-55 ATS (49-41 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, otherwise known as the seventh layer of Hell! In tonight’s game, the Satan spawn known as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Cincinnati Tigers. Guys, I’ve been telling you that I’ve been campaigning to broadcast nothing but games with my Philadelphia Eagles because as the head honcho here, I feel like I have a lot of clout. Instead, the network executives spit in my face. I can’t believe they’re making me broadcast a game with the Satan spawn. Don’t they know about me being the head honcho!? Don’t they know about my clout!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Golbez. It are very great to hear that you has a cloud. In my family, we has a pet dog, a pet cat, and a pet shrimp. I never hearded of anyone who has a pet cloud before. Are pet cloud dangerous animal? I does not want the cloud bite my grandchildren whenever my bastard son Emmitt Snow Jr. going to have sexual with ginger wilding and then get pregnancied.

Reilly: Emmitt, are you stupid, or something? How can I possibly have a pet cloud? Mother won’t let me have any pets! She says I’m too young and too irresponsible. Can you believe it? I’m 73, so maybe I can have a pet dog or a pet cloud when I turn 80.

Tollefson: Reilly, you could easily find a loophole. My township has a rule where we can’t have any pets. But I want a pet. So, what I do sometimes is I get a dog collar and put it on one of my female slaves, and I pretend she’s a female dog. It’s great! I walk her, and everything. I don’t clean up her poop though, so please don’t tell anyone in the association.

Reilly: Tolly, who am I going to tell? Sounds like the people running your association are jerks if they’re not letting you use one of your female slaves as your pet dog. Speaking of, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have an exclusive report saying that Jerry Jones has taken over as owner as the Dallas Cowboys. I’m joined by a nerdy guy with glasses. Who are you, and how did you come to run a country?

Bill Gates: Hi, I am Bill Gates, and I run a small island off the coast of South Korea. I am here to address some allegations that were brought forth last week. Someone on this telecast said last week that I bring little boys with me who aren’t my kids to games with me, which is not true. What is true is that I have little boys who play games on my island, and I watch them play games with each other. I do this while wearing masks depicting various animals. There is a huge difference, and if these false accusations continue, I will be forced to pursue legal action.

Charissa Thompson: Oh no, not legal action. Wait, if you’re the ruler of another country, how will you sue in an American court?

Bill Gates: Pursuing legal action has nothing to do with courts in my country. It means that I will inject you with my experimental vaccines. I’ve injected lots of African children with these vaccines, which are totally safe, but I will save the untested ones for those who accuse me of these vile actions.

Reilly: Hey Billy boy, can I borrow one of your untested vaccines so I can inject Charles Davis to see what happens? And if I can’t, maybe Camel Toe Harry can use some of her political power to get these vaccines for me! Can you do it, Camel Toe Harry!? Whoa, Camel Toe Harry, you’re looking pretty rough.

Kamala Harris: I grewww uppp innnn midddlee classss fammlly. I’vveee beeennn uunbburrb-hic-burrnedd bbyyy whaasss beeeen hic! Heeyeyy I juusss wannn ssaayyy I loovvee yoouu guuyss I dunnn ccaarre iffff I lossss eleleccshunn buuttt whhooss thiisss hheeasdd hooncchooo eeveerryyssoonesss beeeeennn ttalkiinn bbboiuut hhahaahahahahaaha hic!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, or should I call her Drunkala, is the drunkest person anyone has ever seen, no one has ever seen anything like it, and it’s quite sad really, Kamala was a pathetic opponent, and she’s an even more pathetic drunk, probably the worst drunk anyone has ever seen, frankly, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and she’s nothing like Pelosi, who is the best drunk anyone has ever seen, Pina Colada Pelosi is what I call her, which is a great nickname, by the way, the best nickname anyone has ever heard, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and Pina Colada Pelosi is such a great drunk that she makes these great stock trades when she’s drunk, no one has ever seen anything like it, although she’s nothing like Trump, who makes the best trades, and the best deals anyone has ever seen, but Trump’s not drunk like Pina Colada Pelosi, but if he were drunk, he would be the best drunk anyone has ever seen.

Wolfley: DONALD, NO DISRESPECT TO YOU OR PINA COLADA PELOSI, BUT MY THIRD UNCLE, A VITAMIN E TABLET WITH DEVIL HORNS FOR EYES AND AN ANVIL FOR A TONGUE IS THE BEST DRUNK ANYONE HAS EVER SEEN. WHEN DRUNK, HE CAN FIT INTO AN ENTIRE PHONE BOOTH AND RECITE THE ALPHABET BACKWARD, WHICH IS HARDER THAN IT SOUNDS BECAUSE THE ALPHABET ON MY HOME PLANET IS 716 LETTERS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please convince Bill Gates to give me an untested vaccine so I can inject Charles Davis, my arch enemy? Please, please, please!?

Jay Cutler: There’s no way I’m taking anything from that creepy dude. No thanks.

Reilly: Aww, New Daddy, you really care about me not to take vaccines from Bill Gates! That’s so sweet!

Jay Cutler: On second thought, Billy Boy, give that stupid kid whatever he wants.

Reilly: New Daddy, you’re not fooling me! Thank you for buying me this shady guy’s vaccines!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about vaccines, Kevin. Let’s discuss some vaccines, Kevin. There’s the flu vaccine, Kevin, which everyone knows about, Kevin. Then there’s RSV vaccine, Kevin. What do you think about the Tdap vaccine, Kevin? Let’s get to the shingles vaccine, Kevin. We can now chat about the Hepatitis B vaccine, Kevin. Don’t forget the Covid vaccine, Kevin, which is not really a vaccine, Kevin. And then there’s Chickenpox vaccine, Kevin, which you’re very familiar with, Kevin, because you’re a giant chicken, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, WHEN YOU’RE ASLEEP, I’M GOING TO SNEAK OUT OF THE HOUSE SO I DON’T GET INTO TROUBLE WITH MOTHER, AND THEN I’M GOING TO INJECT YOU WITH SOME SHADY VACCINES SO I CAN FINALLY DESTROY YOU! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Though the Bengals lost to the Steelers last week, they were able to produce 38 points. That looks like an impressive output against the Steelers until it’s considered that seven points came on a pick-six where George Pickens fell down, while another seven came in garbage time. The Bengals moved the chains well in the opening half, but fizzled after intermission.

Cincinnati’s second-half foil was the pressure the Steelers were able to produce with T.J. Watt, who forced a strip-sack at one point. The Bengals will face similar issues in this game with Micah Parsons back from injury. Dallas’ defense was a shell of its former self without Parsons, but the elite edge rusher’s return has changed everything. Neither the Redskins nor the Giants could move the chains at all against the Cowboys with Parsons on the field.

Now, the Bengals are obviously much better offensively than the Giants, so they won’t be completely dead like New York was on Thanksgiving. They should be able to take advantage of a positive matchup, which would be Dallas’ poor run defense. Chase Brown has been excellent since becoming the full-time running back, sprinting out of the backfield as if he were shot out of a cannon. He’ll have some big gains during Cincinnati’s touchdown drives in this game.

DALLAS OFFENSE: As great as Cincinnati’s offense is, its defense is even worse. The Bengals happen to be ranked dead last in defensive EPA, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who saw Russell Wilson throw for 400-plus yards against them last week.

The Bengals can’t stop anything. Their secondary is a complete disaster, and Dallas had an injection of talent return to the 53-man roster with Brandin Cooks now healthy. Jake Ferguson may come back as well. Ferguson’s return will be important because the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to stopping tight ends, as evidenced by what Pat Freiermuth accomplished last week. CeeDee Lamb also figures to be a big producer in this contest.

One area in which Cincinnati has improved a bit is stopping the run. This was a real weak point earlier in the season, but the Bengals have done well versus the rush in many games since. I wouldn’t expect a big game out of Rico Dowdle like we saw on Thanksgiving as a result.

RECAP: This is the third of three falling knives. Everyone expects the Jets and 49ers to rebound each week because they’re perceived as being much better than they are. The same applies to the Bengals. People constantly expect them to snap out of their funk, begin winning, and make the playoffs. It’s not happening.

Cincinnati is terrible. There’s Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, but that’s it. The Bengals have nothing else going on for them. They have issues blocking, while their defense is atrocious. Cincinnati’s defense is ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of adjusted EPA. And just look at the results. Save for a blowout win over the hapless Raiders, the Bengals haven’t won by margin at all. Granted, they’ve barely won, but they were up just 10-7 against the Giants before a bogus touchdown at the end, and they needed an injury to Deshaun Watson to beat Dorian Thompson-Robinson by seven. The Bengals have kept both games against the Ravens close, but they’ve also been blown out on several occasions.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been better in recent weeks, stemming from Parsons’ return to the lineup. The offense still sucks with Cooper Rush, but Parsons’ return has catapulted Dallas’ defense up to third in adjusted EPA. The Cowboys can rush the passer very well and should be able to disrupt Burrow enough to give their offense a chance to win the game against the NFL’s worst defense.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cowboys win this game, by the way, because it’s already happened. The Bengals played at the Cowboys starting Rush, and they lost outright. This occurred back in Week 2 of 2022 when Rush upset Cincinnati. Sure, the Bengals are known for their poor starts, but that Cincinnati team still had its defensive studs. The 2024 Bengals are a hollow husk of that squad, so they could certainly lose once again to Rush on the road.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no injury report yet, but the sharps took the Cowboys down from +6 to +5.5, which is not a surprise, given how poor Cincinnati’s defense has been.

SATURDAY NOTES: CeeDee Lamb returned to practice Friday. The Cowboys, however, didn’t have Tyler Guyton or Zack Martin in either practice so far. The same applies to Orlando Brown, whose absence would be huge versus Micah Parsons.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was disappointed to see that Tyler Guyton and Zack Martin are out, but Orlando Brown is going to be out as well, so maybe it’s a wash with Micah Parsons on the other side of Brown’s backup.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I’m going to post more about this on Tuesday when I discuss all my high-unit picks, but I need to reevaluate what I’m doing after that horrible Sunday. I made two asinine picks with the Bears and Chiefs, and I also got off the Buccaneers, whom I loved earlier in the week. This game reminds me of Chicago-San Francisco where we have a collapsing spread – Cincinnati -6.5 was the look-ahead – with a talented team coming off a loss. The 49ers were -6.5 on the look-ahead and were -3 by kickoff after being humiliated on national TV. Cincinnati’s loss wasn’t as bad, but the team still suffered a defeat at home to a big rival. This line has gone from +6.5 to +5, so we are getting some value with the Bengals. However, there’s a chance Cincinnati quits because it’s basically eliminated from the playoffs, so I still think Dallas might be the right side. Either way, I’m dropping the unit count from five to three even though the sharp money is coming in on the Cowboys at the moment.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Chase Brown has become a big part of Cincinnati’s passing attack ever since Zack Moss went on injured reserve. He’s cleared 30-plus receiving yards in each game following the injury, and yet the prop is only 26.5. The best number is over 26.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re going over to FanDuel for our same-game parlay because they have much better odds. Brown’s receiving yards is 27.5, but that’s OK. We’re going to match that with Jake Ferguson over 38.5 receiving yards, Rico Dowdle over 15.5 receiving yards, and KaVontae Turpin over 14.5 receiving yards. Ferguson is back, and Cincinnati struggles against tight ends. Dowdle could catch more passes than usual because of the offensive line injuries. And Turpin has seen an expanded role and is always a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball. This $25 parlay pays $269.55 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have brought this spread down from +6 to +4.5, as they’ve been betting the Cowboys aggressively. The sharps were on the Bears and Jets, before you get too excited. Still, I’d favor the Cowboys despite what I wrote above. The best line is +4.5 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 54% (250,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 41-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 18-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.