NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
2024 NFL Picks: 89-82-7 (-$2,545)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

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DENVER OFFENSE: I have to imagine that the Raider defense was excited about the possibility of battling a rookie quarterback twice per year after dealing with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert so often. Of course, things have regressed for the Raiders, who had the No. 7 EPA defense last year. Thanks to countless injuries, the Raiders are dead last in defense.

The Raiders already tried to battle Bo Nix once, and it didn’t end well. In that game, Nix was a solid 19-of-27 for 206 yards and three total touchdowns. Nix didn’t have much experience at the time because that was just his fifth start. He’ll be even better in this contest, given that he’s coming off such a brilliant performance against Atlanta. Granted, the Falcons had a secondary missing three of its top four cornerbacks, but it’s not like the Raiders cover well. They’ve been awful to No. 1 receivers, and their pass rush won’t be able to do much to disrupt Nix, given that he’s protected so well.

One other thing the Raiders can’t defend at all is receiving backs. Javonte Williams appeared to lose his job to Audric Estime in Week 10, but was somehow able to reclaim it versus the Falcons. Williams can catch passes well out of the backfield, so he should have his way against the Raiders.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While Nix is protected very well, the same can’t be said of Gardner Minshew. The Raiders have a horrible offensive line that doesn’t stand a chance in this matchup. The Broncos are fifth in pressure rate, so they’ll hound Minshew all afternoon.

I don’t need to tell you that this is troubling for Minshew. While all quarterbacks play poorly while under pressure, Minshew has one of the greatest dichotomies between being kept clean and being under duress. When pressured, Minshew’s completion percentage drops a whopping 33.5 percent, and his YPA plummets 2.4 yards. It’s truly horrendous. Minshew is an interception machine, so he could easily toss some picks in this game.

The one way the Raiders will move the ball is by Minshew constantly completing passes to Brock Bowers. This was a strategy that worked for a bit against the Dolphins. If the Broncos have one defensive weakness, it’s their inability to stop tight ends.

RECAP: The Raiders had owned the Broncos heading into 2024. That changed in the first meeting between these teams. Denver obliterated the Raiders in the first meeting. They won 34-18, and the result wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. The Raiders did all of their damage in garbage time. Denver was up 34-10 before a garbage-time octopus.

I don’t see why anything would change in the rematch. Sure, this game is in Las Vegas, but the Raiders don’t have any sort of a home-field advantage. In fact, I’d expect more Denver fans to be in the stands. The Raiders have a backup quarterback at the helm, and he doesn’t stand much of a chance against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Broncos have battled four bad quarterbacks this year: Justin Fields, Minshew, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young. The Broncos are 3-1 straight up and against the spread against those quarterbacks, and the lone loss was a 13-point output by the Steelers.

Minshew won’t do anything against the Broncos until garbage time. I’m looking forward to betting many units on Denver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eight Raider players missed Wednesday’s practice, including top cornerback Nate Hobbs and center Andre James. Seeing this, it wasn’t surprising at all to see this line move to -6.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m interested in a Gardner Minshew interceptions prop because of the crazy pressure he’ll see in this game. Minshew has thrown at least one pick in six of his nine games this year. I’m not seeing a viable line at the moment, however, so check back later.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Raiders weren’t in a deep enough hole in this matchup, they may be down their top three cornerbacks in this game. Nate Hobbs and Jakorian Bennett have been ruled out, while Jack Jones barely practiced all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are also against us here, betting the Raiders down to +5.5 for some reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps are on the Raiders. I still like the Broncos. The best line is -5.5 -110 at many sportsbooks, including FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.

Computer Model: Broncos -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Public and sharp money on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: Without looking, try to guess which team currently has the No. 1 adjusted EPA offense in the NFL. OK, well, I sort of gave it away by placing that question in this location, but yes, it’s Arizona.

The Cardinals have been so explosive on this side of the ball. Kyler Murray has been outstanding, as he’s been able to take advantage of his talented weapons. He’s also protected very well. This is troubling for the Seahawks, who rank about in the middle of the pack in pressure rate. Murray figures to have plenty of time to locate Trey McBride, who has a terrific matchup.

James Conner also figures to thrive. The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses when it comes to stopping the run. Conner has been enjoying a terrific year, so he’ll pick up where he left off prior to the bye.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals were expected to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, but that hasn’t been the case. They’ve been about league average, which is good enough for the team to win if the offense is going to be so explosive.

The Cardinals happen to be mediocre in all defensive categories. This includes their ability against the run, but they’ll need to be great to contain Kenneth Walker, who is coming off a rough matchup and will be motivated to rebound.

Walker’s great running will open things up for Geno Smith, who needs all the help he can get in the wake of the surprise retirement by Connor Williams. The Cardinals generate quality pressure on the quarterback, so Smith won’t have all the time he needs to locate his talented receivers. Smith will be hoping for Noah Fant to return to action because Arizona has been soft to tight ends.

RECAP: I’m a fan of fading bad teams coming off wins. It may seem odd to suggest that Seattle is a bad team because of the 5-5 record, but the EPA figures suggest that they are the fourth-worst team in the NFL. I don’t quite have it that way, as my NFL Power Rankings have them as the 21st-best team in the NFL.

At any rate, the Seahawks are coming off a big win against the 49ers, so they seem like a decent fade against Arizona. The Cardinals are the better team, and my numbers say that they should be favored in this game. I have Arizona at -1.5. The EPA numbers have this as a baffling Arizona -10. The metrics absolutely despise the Seahawks.

I can’t say I’m too keen on backing the Cardinals off a bye, given that Murray tends to get distracted by video games. I’m not confident in his preparation for the Seahawks. However, I will be backing them for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two things: First, Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. Second, it’s expected to rain in Seattle this Sunday, which is not good news for Geno Smith, who struggles in the rain despite quarterbacking the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks tend to struggle against tight ends. They haven’t battled a quality tight end in a while, but they’ll have issues stopping Trey McBride. The best number is over 51.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The red-hot Cardinals might be getting two key players back from injury, with Jonah Williams and Darius Robinson being limited all week. Despite this, I still have no play on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still leaning toward the Cardinals, but can’t quite get myself to bet the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jonah Williams will return for Arizona. I don’t know if this is related, but there has been late sharp money coming in on Arizona. The Cardinals are now favored everywhere. The best line is -1 -108 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

Was Kyler Murray distracted during the bye?

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.

Computer Model: Cardinals -10.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 52% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Road team has won 13 of the past 18 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Seahawks are 21-9 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Rain, 48 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers already had plenty of injuries, so they didn’t need to see Brock Purdy dealing with a shoulder issue. Purdy reportedly has shoulder soreness and is day to day with the injury. There hasn’t been any indication that Purdy is in danger of missing this game, but he may not be 100 percent.

As far as the other injuries on this side of the ball, George Kittle missed last week’s game, while Trent Williams and Aaron Banks were not completely healthy. Perhaps they’ll be closer to 100 percent after a week, but it’s too early to tell. The offensive linemen will be especially crucial for the 49ers to take advantage of Green Bay’s defensive weakness, which is against the run. If Christian McCaffrey has the blocking, he could have a big day. The 49ers will be hoping that this includes the work done in the red zone because their offense has been woeful deep in enemy territory.

As for Kittle, he’s less vital because Jauan Jennings has emerged as a dynamic threat. With Jennings and Deebo Samuel, Purdy has a couple of terrific weapons to beat Green Bay’s secondary. The only question is if Purdy will be healthy enough to do so.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers also have injury woes on this side of the ball. Nick Bosa was very questionable heading into last week’s game, as he barely practiced. He played, but wasn’t healthy. He had to leave the contest early, sparking Seattle’s comeback.

Bosa is a huge difference-maker, so if he’s out of commission, Green Bay’s offense will function very efficiently. The Packers need all the breaks they can get, given that they’re going to be matched up with a stop unit that is still ranked in the top 10.

Despite San Francisco’s high defensive ranking, the Packers will be able to exploit some matchups. For instance, the 49ers really struggle against tight ends, so I would expect Tucker Kraft to perform well. San Francisco is great versus the run, but has problems with receiving backs. Josh Jacobs has been getting more pass-catching work lately, so that could make a difference in this game.

RECAP: You have to love media overreaction sometimes. The 49ers were the NFC representative in the Super Bowl last year, yet the NFL Network’s David Carr stated that they are “done.” They’re done, apparently, because they didn’t have Kittle or Bosa on the field at the end of the Seattle game.

The 49ers are not playing well, particularly in the red zone, but they’re a very talented team and should be able to figure things out eventually. When they do, we’ll be getting them in a nice buy-low opportunity. The problem is that they’re so banged up. They already had a slew of injuries, and now Purdy is banged up as well.

Despite all of these injuries, the 49ers are a massive public dog. I think fading this is the right move, especially when the Packers have playoff revenge on their minds.

I’m not going to project a wager quite yet, but if the injury report looks bleak for the 49ers, I’ll be betting some number of units on the Packers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Nick Bosa or Trent Williams in Wednesday’s practice. The good news is that George Kittle wasn’t even on Wednesday’s injury report.

PLAYER PROPS: There are some injury question marks, so nothing stands out at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Purdy is out, causing this line to rise to -5.5. I normally like backing good teams playing their reserve quarterbacks, but can the 49ers be classified as a good team? Nick Bosa is out. Trent Williams is very injured. Charvarius Ward is out. Dre Greenlaw is out. Talanoa Hufanga is out. Brandon Aiyuk is out. I’m going to remain on the Packers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll see if Trent Williams plays. If he’s out, I may bet Green Bay at -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams is out. The sharps are on the Packers. As promised, I’m betting Green Bay. This will be a one-unit wager at -6 -113, found at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 56% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Kyle Shanahan is 12-7 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Packers are 65-43 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 53-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Chance of rain, 43 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Saquon Barkley would have enjoyed this matchup much more earlier in the year. The Rams dealt with injuries to begin the season and had issues versus the run as a consequence. They’ve limited rushers since they’ve gotten healthier, which includes restricting De’Von Achane to minimal gains on the ground a couple of weeks ago.

Barkley, however, is incredible, and could break some long gains regardless of his opponent. Still, Barkley likely won’t have one of his best games, so it’ll be on Jalen Hurts to move the chains. Hurts will be battling a Rams front seven that generates lots of pressure, so it’s key that he’s protected well because he’d have a difficult time otherwise.

The Rams have a terrific defense, but there are some weaknesses. They tend to struggle against tight ends and slot receivers. Dallas Goedert being healthy now could factor into this matchup, while DeVonta Smith could be more productive than A.J. Brown.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Eagles struggled on this side of the ball to start the year, but things have changed drastically. They now maintain the No. 1 EPA defense in the NFL.

Much of Philadelphia’s improvement has to do with the emergence of the two rookie cornerbacks, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. If they weren’t playing so well, the Rams would have a great edge in this game with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being both healthy. However, Mitchell and DeJean should be able to limit Nacua and Kupp, respectively.

The Rams likely won’t get much on the ground either. The Eagles struggled against the run to start the year, but their front seven has greatly improved since the bye. Kyren Williams is still a special talent, so he won’t be completely shut down, but he won’t have one of his best games either.

RECAP: I hate that these teams are battling each other. I’ve been backing the Eagles in most games since they’ve gotten all of their injured players back following their bye. I’ve also been backing the Rams in every game since they’ve gotten both receivers healthy.

These are two of the better teams in the NFL, so I don’t really see a great betting angle. Philadelphia is better than Los Angeles, but the Rams have Circadian rhythms on their side with this game taking place at night. I also think the correct spread is Philadelphia -1.5 or -2, so we’re getting the slightest value with the Rams.

Despite this slight value, I’m going to side with the Eagles because I believe they’re the superior team, and they can take advantage of some of the matchups better than the Rams can. However, I definitely don’t plan on betting this game. In fact, I’d be on the Rams if this line were +3.5. That’s how close this game is for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Hurts was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but reports indicate that he’ll play. DeVonta Smith, however, missed Wednesday’s practice entirely, so we’ll have to wait on him.

SATURDAY NOTES: DeVonta Smith is out, which is the only major injury in this game aside from the Rams missing Rob Havenstein. Neither absence will affect my handicap.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Dallas Goedert looks great in this matchup. The Rams are weak to tight ends, and Goedert will get a bump with DeVonta Smith sidelined. The best number is over 48.5 -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to throw in the Goedert prop, which is 51.5 on FanDuel, with Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown, A.J. Brown over 89.5 receiving yards, and Kyren Williams over 14.5 receiving yards. Hurts has scored in five consecutive games, and this could easily be No. 6. Brown will also benefit from Smith being out. And Williams should become the latest receiving back to beat expectations against the Eagles. This $25 parlay is 25-percent boosted on FanDuel and pays $335.76. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no strong opinion on this matchup, which is a bummer because it’s a stand-alone game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, DeVonta Smith and Rob Havenstein are sidelined. I still have no desire to bet this game, and neither do the sharps, apparently, because they haven’t taken either side. The best line is -3 +100 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 58% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jalen Hurts is 9-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, home of the San Diego Chargers and the San Diego A**holes who took one game from my Philadelphia Phillies the last time they played in the playoffs, but my Philadelphia Phillies aren’t nearly as great as my Philadelphia Eagles, who are definitely going to the super game. Guys, like I said last week, I’m the head honcho here, and I have a lot of influence, and so I went to the network heads and I demanded that I broadcast nothing but games featuring my Philadelphia Eagles. I thought about forcing them to have my Philadelphia Eagles win every game, but my Philadelphia Eagles are so great they don’t need any help. Ha! Do you guys agree? And if you don’t, I will punish you.

Emmitt: Thanks, Edge. It are very impressive that you the head nacho. I hope to one day have a lot of influenza like you has with the network head. But forgive me if I am oversleeping my boundary here but why you only talking to the corporate head? Why not the corporate arm, the corporate stomach, and the corporate toe?

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s just a figure of speech, like, “I’m so hungry I could eat a horse,” or “She’s as bright as the sun,” or “If you don’t vacuum the house and then rub Mother’s feet, Mother will take away all your Nick Foles bobbleheads.”

Tollefson: Reilly, I like that you brought up figures of speech, because we have one in my household. It goes like this: “Any female slave who cooks and cleans the worst each month will be buried six feet underground.” It’s a beautiful thing because not only does it keep them on their toes; they also get to enjoy this great figure of speech I have. Even the female slave who is buried each month gets to die knowing that she contributed to a great figure of speech!

Reilly: Tolly, if Mother let me talk to girls, I think I’d bury some of them six feet underground, too, especially the ones who laugh at me and wouldn’t want to talk to me, but don’t worry, I have their names written down in the basement, and I used Mother’s lipstick to write the names! Speaking of, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. This is the first NFL game where two sister coaches will battle each other. That’s right – both Jim and John Harbaugh transitioned into women, and they will now be known as Jaime and Joan Harbaugh. What a great day for diversity! Speaking of diversity, we are now joined by this woman with bushy hair. Hello, ma’am, who are you?

Javier Milei: AFUERA! AFUERA! Esta mujer es una idiota! Ella no es necesaria en esta transmision! Ninguno de ustedes, idiotas, es necesario en esta transmision porque son completamente inutiles!

Charissa Thompson: Did I just hear you say the word “porque?” I would like some pork, thank you, and please give me some truffled mashed potatoes as a side, please.

Javier Milei: AFUERA! AFUERA! Esta mujer no tiene idea de lo que esta haciendo! Es la peor reportera secundaria de todos los tiempos! Ninguno de ustedes sabe como retransmitir un partido de futbol, especialmente ese imbecil que colecciona munecos con cabezones de Nick Foles como si tuviera 10 anos, pero es un anciano raro que vive con su madre. Y, por cierto, nos merecemos un partido de la NFL porque hemos hecho que todo sea mucho mas eficiente en Argentina. Gracias y Dios los bendiga.

Reilly: Hold on, I’m putting this in Google translate now. Mother said I can use my phone as long as I don’t text any girls because they will corrupt me. Here is the translation: “This woman has no idea what she’s doing! She’s the worst sideline reporter ever! None of you know how to broadcast a football game, especially that moron who collects Nick Foles bobblehead dolls as if he were some 10-year-old, but he’s some weird old man living with his mother. And by the way, we deserve an NFL game because we’ve made everything so much more efficient in Argentina. Thank you, and God bless.” Who is he talking about when he said the weird old man? I collect Nick Foles bobblehead dolls, which are the greatest thing, but I’m definitely not some weird old man! Camel Toe Harry, who do you think this Javier Mallett guy is talking about?

Kamala Harris: When I was growing up in my middle-class family, we would talk about stuff. Because that’s what middle-class families did. They’d talk about stuff. And when we’d talk about stuff, we would talk about stuff. You know what I’m saying? We’d talk about stuff. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. We’d talk about stuff, because when you talk about stuff, stuff is what you talk about, HAHAHAHAHAHA. But I will be unburdened by what has been because I have met the most wonderful man tonight. He’s a strong man, a leader, a head honcho, and someone can ride with him to the top!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, you are not riding with me to the top, you’re not riding with me anywhere, including the bottom, because that’s where you belong, the bottom, and not just the bottom, the very bottom, because you were the worst presidential candidate anyone has ever seen, and no one has ever seen anything like it, and believe it, people will ride with me to the top, and not just the top, the tippy top and even beyond that because we’re going to do so much winning that people will be sick of all the winning that we’ll do, and they’ll say, “Trump, we’re so tired of winning because you’re doing such a great job as president, so instead of winning, can we know what it feels like to lose sometime, Mr. Trump, can we please take a break from winning because it’s so boring, and you’re so great?” and I’ll tell them that they need to keep winning because if they don’t win, total losers like Kamala and Biden will win instead, and then everyone will lose, they will lose bigly, and then they’ll want to win again, and the only way they can do that is with Trump, who is the best candidate ever, and no one has ever seen anything like it, or at least that’s what I’ve been told.

Wolfley: DONALD, A FRIEND OF MINE WHO HAS LIPSTICK FOR FEET AND TONGUES FOR NOSES HAS OPENED A BUSINESS WHERE HE GIVES RIDES TO PEOPLE TO THE BOTTOM. HE CHARGES $19.99 PER TRIP AND $59.99 FOR TWO TRIPS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! The only ride to the top is with my Philadelphia Eagles, and no one can be on it except for me and New Daddy. Are you excited to ride to the top with me, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Oh yeah, sounds go great, I can’t wait, yay.

Reilly: New Daddy, I knew you’d want to ride with me to the top. You’re the best New Daddy ever!

Jay Cutler: Oh wait, I forgot I had other plans. Sorry!

Reilly: Well, I know you love me, New Daddy, so you’ll ride with me another time.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about rides, Kevin, so let’s begin with rides you can find at Disney World, Kevin. We can begin with Splash Mountain, Kevin. Next is Space Mountain, Kevin. What do you think about Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Kevin? Lots of mountains at Disney World, Kevin. How about we segue to the Tower of Terror, Kevin? We can now touch on the Carousel of Progress, Kevin. Care to share about It’s a Small World, Kevin? Because you have small man parts, Kevin, so that song must have been written about you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, MOTHER SAYS I HAVE A SMALL MAN PART BECAUSE I’M A FLOWER WHO HASN’T BLOSSOMED YET, BUT AT LEAST I DON’T HAVE A SMALL BRAIN LIKE YOU! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The first thing I look at when handicapping how Baltimore’s offense will fare is how well the opponent does against mobile quarterbacks. The Chargers have battled two mobile quarterbacks this year: Kyler Murray and Bo Nix. They’ve limited those two players to 17 and 16 points, respectively, and the real number with Nix was zero because all 16 came in garbage time. Now, I know that neither is as mobile as Jackson, so let’s look to last year’s matchup, shall we? The Chargers held the Ravens to 20 points, with Jackson scrambling for only 39 rushing yards.

The Chargers have the elite players on the edge to keep Jackson contained. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack figure to apply plenty of pressure on him. Baltimore’s offensive line isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, and yet the Chargers were able to hound Jackson in that game.

The Ravens may have issues getting Derrick Henry established as well. The Chargers have been solid against the run this year, so Henry, who has been limited in some games recently, won’t have his best outing.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The offensive line isn’t Baltimore’s greatest concern. That’s because the defense has struggled so much this year. The Ravens were ranked 30th in defensive EPA heading into Week 11. They haven’t been able to cover receivers or tight ends at all.

Justin Herbert was struggling when he took on the Ravens last year, but he’s so much better right now. Herbert is playing at the top of his game, thanks to the upgraded coaching staff and healthier supporting cast. Ladd McConkey is really coming into his own, while Quentin Johnston is not playing like a bust anymore. Will Dissly is also coming off a great game, and he should have another positive performance in this contest.

The only area in which the Chargers will fail is running the ball. While the Ravens can’t stop the pass at all, they’re stellar against the run, so J.K. Dobbins won’t be able to get revenge.

RECAP: We’ll get to see if my Overrated-Underrated NFL list is accurate at all. I’ve had the Ravens as overrated and the Chargers as underrated for most of the year.

It should come as no surprise that I’m on the Chargers. I’m not in love with fading the Ravens off a loss – they’re 20-13 against the spread in such situations in the Jackson era – but Baltimore simply continues to be overvalued. The Ravens have some major problems, particularly on defense. They can’t cover receivers or tight ends at all, and there aren’t many quarterbacks playing better than Herbert. He’ll be able to take advantage of these good matchups. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ stellar pass rush should be able to hound Jackson.

Despite these great mismatches favoring the Chargers, this line is shaded too much toward Baltimore. I personally made this line Chargers -1, while EPA has this at Chargers -5.5. The metrics have hated the Ravens all year. But really, this spread hardly makes any sense. The Ravens and Bengals battled in two games decided by just four total points, and either contest could have gone to Cincinnati. Yet, the Chargers were -1.5 against the Bengals last week, and they’re +3 now versus Baltimore in the same location. Why is there a difference of 4.5 points? It seems completely unwarranted.

One more reason to bet the Chargers: Offensive coordinator Greg Roman coached the Ravens recently. He’s very familiar with the team, including Jackson, whom he worked with very closely. This gives the Chargers a great advantage in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We may lock this in soon because the vig movement is indicating that the line may drop to +2.5. I’d like to see a couple of injury reports though.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens had some key players miss Friday’s practice, including Tyler Linderbaum and Roquan Smith. The final injury report will be interesting.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Chargers to +2.5. It sucks because we were waiting on the final injury report. Hopefully we find a viable +3, but I have my doubts.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I still love the Chargers. In fact, I think I’ll be betting the -2.5 alt line.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Ravens don’t cover the middle of the field at all. Will Dissly’s production has increased a lot recently, so I like his over receiving yards. The best number is over 43.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to parlay Dissly over 44.5 receiving yards (at FanDuel) with Quentin Johnston anytime touchdown, Gus Edwards under 25.5 rushing yards, and Justin Herbert over 263.5 passing yards. All Johnston does is catch touchdowns, and all the Ravens do is allow passing touchdowns. Gus Edwards will have issues running against the Ravens. The Chargers are throwing more, and they’re going to be battling a pass-funnel offense. This $25 parlay pays $343.46 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Chargers at +3, but not at +2.5. Luckily, there are some +3s still available, with the best line being +3 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

As promised, I’m betting the Chargers -2.5. The best line for that is -2.5 +162 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Decent action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 15-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.