NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
2024 NFL Picks: 72-72-6 (-$3,290)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Quentin Johnston looked awful in his rookie year. He was even outplayed by someone named Derius Davis when all of the starters were out late in the season. However, his return to the lineup has been huge for the Chargers. He made some big plays last week despite battling a tough Cleveland defense.

The Titans defense was classified as tough once upon a time, but that has changed. Tennessee’s top two cornerbacks have been sidelined, which didn’t exactly come into play against the Patriots’ horrible receiving corps, or the Lions because Detroit was scoring a million touchdowns on special teams. Justin Herbert will have an easy time navigating through Tennessee’s injury-ravaged secondary in this game, as he did well even against the Browns last week.

Running won’t be so easy for the Chargers. The Titans are stout against the run, as T’Vondre Sweat’s return to action has made a huge difference. That said, J.K. Dobbins didn’t have a great matchup last week. He didn’t do much early in the afternoon, but picked up steam as the afternoon progressed. Perhaps he’ll do the same against the exhausted Titans, who are coming off an overtime battle.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans won’t be able to run the ball either. Tony Pollard has been terrific this year, but this is a very difficult matchup. The Chargers are eighth versus the run, and only one running back this year (James Conner) has beaten expectations against them.

The Titans were able to limit their mistakes against the Patriots last week because they had so much success running the ball. That won’t be the case this week, so the quarterback who starts this game could be forced into multiple turnovers, no matter who it is. Mason Rudolph would be the better option because Will Levis is clueless, but Rudolph has also made some bone-headed decisions.

It won’t help that either Levis or Rudolph will see tons of pressure. The Titans run block well, but pass protection is not their specialty. A healthy Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack will place plenty of pressure on Tennessee’s quarterback.

RECAP: In the prior pick capsule, I faded a bad team coming off an overtime affair. In this pick capsule, I’ll be fading a bad team coming off an overtime affair.

The Titans beat the Patriots last week, which makes them an automatic fade. Going against awful teams coming off wins is a great strategy because they often have problems sustaining success. I’d be shocked if we got Tennessee’s best performance this week.

It’ll be difficult for the Titans to compete with the Chargers, even at their best. The problem here is that they have a backup quarterback going up against the NFL’s No. 3 defense. Reserve quarterbacks tend to cover the spread against mediocre or bad defenses, but they have a huge failure rate against elite defenses. The Chargers just wrecked Jameis Winston and Spencer Rattler the past two weeks. In fact, the Chargers have put the foot on the throat of bad quarterbacks all year, debacling Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young in the first two weeks of the season. Their victories against Minshew, Young, Rattler, and Winston have been by 12, 23, 18, and 17 points.

The Chargers are my top play this week. I love the idea of fading awful teams, especially off victories. You might be worried about the Chargers’ lack of success in San Angeles, but that was before Jim Harbaugh arrived. The Chargers naturally underachieved with the horrible Brandon Staley, but they’ve performed beyond expectations all but one week with Harbaugh.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two injuries of note: First, L’Jarius Sneed once again missed Wednesday’s practice, so it looks like the Titans will be without both starting cornerbacks again. Second, Khalil Mack was DNP on Wednesday with a groin.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re paying a hefty price for this, but Will Levis is -165 to throw an interception (at ESPNBet). Levis is a disaster who has thrown a pick in every game this year. He now faces the Chargers, who intercepted Jameis Winston thrice last week. It’d be shocking if Levis didn’t throw a pick, especially given that he’s coming back from injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread dropped to -7 Friday morning. Hilariously, the second Will Levis was confirmed as the starter, the spread went back to -7.5. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are both questionable. Bosa was limited all week in practice, while Mack didn’t practice at all. Bosa played last week despite having the same designation last week. If both are out, I will not be betting the Chargers because that would give us cluster injuries at an important position. I just need one of them to play.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: This spread has moved to -8, as there’s no sign of any sharp money coming in on the underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know if we’re going to see our quarterback throw the ball to the other team nonstop, or our special teams muff a punt to set up an easy touchdown for the opponent, because that’s the theme today. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are both active, so go Chargers go. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is -8 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Titans are a bad team coming off an overtime win.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.

Computer Model: Chargers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 87% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Chargers are 22-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: We have to begin with this side of the ball because of the major losses the Cowboys suffered last week. Dak Prescott suffered a hamstring injury that will sideline him for several weeks. And if that wasn’t bad enough, CeeDee Lamb is “week to week” with a shoulder injury. Lamb shouldn’t be out for too long, but it might be difficult for him to suit up for this game.

It’s going to be tough for the Cowboys to score in this game. The only thing they had going for them was Prescott throwing to Lamb, and now both are out of commission. It’ll be Cooper Rush throwing to a bunch of scrubs like Jalen Tolbert, which won’t work against a Philadelphia secondary that has improved markedly since the beginning of the year. Rush will also be under heavy pressure from Philadelphia’s front.

With Prescott and Lamb out of the lineup, the Eagles can focus more on Rico Dowdle. This is bad news for Dowdle, as Philadelphia already had a stout ground defense.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Cowboys won’t be able to score much on the Eagles, so they’ll have to limit their offense and hope to win a defensive grinder. Micah Parsons returning to action will certainly help, as he’s sorely been missed.

Though Parsons is an incredible player, he’s not some panacea for the Cowboys because there are other issues beyond the pass rush. Dallas is brutal against the run, which would have been acceptable in this matchup in the past. The Eagles of previous years didn’t have Saquon Barkley, of course. Barkley will be able to pick up where he left off last week when he was making backward hurdles and deep touchdown catches. The Cowboys won’t stand a chance against him.

Dallas also struggles against mobile quarterbacks, so Jalen Hurts will be effective on his runs. Thanks to Barkley, Hurts will be in favorable down-and-distance situations all afternoon, so he’ll have an easier time targeting his receivers. Speaking of which, A.J. Brown got hurt last week, but unlike Lamb, he’s “day to day,” so there’s a good chance he’ll be able to play in this game.

RECAP: This is another game in which a backup quarterback will be battling a team with a top defense. The Eagles began slowly on this side of the ball to start the year, but they’ve improved markedly under Vic Fangio as the season progressed. They’re ranked fourth in defensive EPA, which presents a huge problem for Rush.

The Eagles would normally be a great play, but there’s a good chance they won’t be focused for the Cowboys. This would ordinarily be a blasphemous thing to say because the Eagles and Cowboys hate each other, but a Prescott-less 3-5 Dallas team doesn’t seem like a threat. What’s more significant is that the Eagles have a huge game against the Redskins in four days. I’ll be surprised if they don’t have at least one eye on that impending battle.

I don’t see this as a good betting opportunity. I’ll be on the Eagles as a pure fade of Dallas’ injury situation, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Philadelphia relaxes in the second half and allows a back-door touchdown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After talking to Evan on the After Dark Show, I’m less worried about the Eagles looking ahead to Thursday night because Jacksonville in the second half could have been the true look-ahead spot. I’m going to put three units on the Eagles, though I’ll be taking them off if Philadelphia doesn’t have its receivers. A.J. Brown is “day to day,” while DeVonta Smith missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop of 89.5 may seem high until you consider that he has exceeded that number in all but two games this year. The first one was the Tampa Bay loss when everyone was out. The second was the matchup against Cleveland’s excellent defense. The Cowboys can’t stop the run at all. The best number is over 89.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lots of injury news. The Eagles are completely healthy except for Jordan Mailata, who is on injured reserve. Dallas Goedert will return, as will Darius Slay. There was some question about the status of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but both will play. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will have CeeDee Lamb, but Dak Prescott is out. Micah Parsons may return – he’s questionable after being limited all week – but Dallas is looking like it’ll have cluster injuries at cornerback with DaRon Bland out and Trevon Diggs very questionable. This is not good news for them, given the matchup against the receivers. I was worried about the Eagles potentially looking ahead to Washington, but given that they’re rushing everyone back, it still seems as though they view the Cowboys as a threat, so I’m definitely going to be betting them.

LOCKED IN: Most sportsbooks have taken the Eagles to -7.5. I said on the show that I’d be looking to lock in a viable -7, and we found one at Bookmaker. I’m locking in Eagles -7 -108 at Bookmaker for three units. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Bookmaker still has a -7 -113 available, which is much better than -7.5 -110, and a bit better than -7.5 -105.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp action here. There are some -7 -115s out there, but you can get -7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.

The Eagles have to play against the Redskins four days after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -12.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 85% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Home Team has won the last 10 meetings (excluding when Eagles sat their starters).

Jalen Hurts is 8-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets beat the Texans, so they solved everything, right? Maybe, but not because they finally broke their long losing streak. It may be because Aaron Rodgers has finally been able to develop some chemistry with his receivers.

Then again, there still appear to be some problems with this team. The pass protection remains a concern, which would be an issue in this matchup. The Cardinals haven’t sported a great pass rush all year, but they put tons of pressure on Caleb Williams last week. They also added Baron Browning to help in this regard, so Rodgers could have issues in the pocket.

Rodgers will naturally turn to Breece Hall as a safety valve. The Cardinals struggled against the run earlier in the season, but have improved in this regard. However, they’re still weak to receiving backs, as Hall certainly shines in this area.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The TV announcers commented during last week’s game that it appeared as though the Cardinals were running the same play over and over again. They just pounded the ball with James Conner and the other two backs, and Chicago couldn’t do anything to stop it.

The Cardinals would be wise to deploy the same strategy because the Jets are very poor against the run. They’ve struggled to stop opposing backs all year, so James Conner figures to have a big performance.

Conner’s great running will help Murray immensely because this would ordinarily be a difficult matchup for him. The Jets are exceptional against the pass when all three of their talented cornerbacks are healthy. However, they tend to allow decent yardage to tight ends, so Murray should have success targeting Trey McBride.

RECAP: Both of these teams had their detractors a couple of weeks ago, but are now viewed more favorably. The Jets were given up for dead after they lost to the Patriots, but rebounded against the Texans last Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were blown out by the Packers, but went on to vanquish the Chargers, Dolphins, and Bears.

There’s no opportunity to fade an overrated team or back an underrated squad. Neither team will be flat off an upset victory. The spread seems correct as well. I’m not seeing a good betting opportunity in this game.

I’m going to side with the Cardinals because I like their matchup with Conner going against the Jets’ poor run defense, but I can’t ignore that New York has some advantages as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Three Jets offensive linemen missed Wednesday’s practice (Alijah Vera-Tucker, John Simpson, Morgan Moses). Despite this, some sharp money has come in on the Jets.

PLAYER PROPS: James Conner has gone over his posted rushing yards total in four of his previous six games, and the Jets suck against the run. Conner should have a big game. The best number is over 77.5 -113 at BetRivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets will be getting back two of their safeties, and potentially Alijah Vera-Tucker. I still don’t have a good feel for this game, though the sharps have been all over the Jets. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: As mentioned earlier, the sharps are on the Jets. I don’t quite get it, but it’s not like I want to bet the Cardinals either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets to -2, but no further. Alijah Vera-Tucker is a surprise active, but that’s not enough to sway me to New York. The best line is +2 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.

Computer Model: Cardinals -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 63% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-93 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-21 ATS as an underdog. ???

Cardinals are 50-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The big news entering this game is that Nico Collins will be back from injury. Reports indicate that Collins is ready to go. It’s always unclear how skill players will perform coming off injury, but every story has been positive regarding Collins.

This is obviously great news for C.J. Stroud. He really struggled Thursday night. Of course, the matchup didn’t help, but he only had Tank Dell as a viable receiver, and Dell isn’t even fully healthy. Collins has been terrific when healthy this year, and his presence on the field will be enormous.

Plus, it’s an easy matchup. The Lions don’t project to be quite the same without Aidan Hutchinson, and they already had question marks in their secondary. It’ll be difficult for Detroit to stop Stroud with Collins and Dell at his disposal. Having Collins will be crucial because the Lions have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so Joe Mixon doesn’t project well for once.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Texans don’t project to run the ball well, Detroit will be able to do so. The Texans have been weak to the run this year, allowing Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor to thrive in their previous two games. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery figure to pick up big chunks of yardage.

This will obviously make life easier for Jared Goff, who will be indoors once again. Goff played in tough elements last week, yet he was still 18-of-22. Goff has been incredibly efficient this year after a slow start in the first couple of weeks, and he should play well again.

The Texans are usually great at covering outside receivers, but they aren’t as good versus slot receivers. This presents an obvious problem in this matchup because Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the top slot receivers in the NFL.

RECAP: The spread movement here makes no sense. The Lions were -2.5 on the advance line. This line has popped up to -3.5 because of last week’s result. Obviously, the Texans lost to the Jets, and the Lions beat the Packers, but Houston was an underdog and Detroit was a favorite. A small line move, even to a key number, might make sense, except Houston is going to be in better shape this week with Collins returning from injury.

Collins being available is huge, especially for this matchup. The Lions have issues in the secondary, which will only be magnified by Hutchinson’s injury. Detroit’s defensive backfield hasn’t really been challenged since Hutchinson’s injury, except for the game against the Vikings, which was nearly a defeat. Since then, the Lions battled Mason Rudolph and an injured Jordan Love in a downpour. Stroud and Collins will provide a major challenge.

I like the Texans quite a bit. The public is all over Detroit, but I believe Houston to be the right side. I like Stroud’s matchup against a questionable secondary, and we’ll be getting him and his team at their best after a loss on national TV. Meanwhile, we recently saw the Lions struggle to win in Minnesota. They prevailed by two points, and I view Minnesota and Houston similarly. Sure, the Lions had a dominant win at Green Bay, but they were going against an injured quarterback, so the Packers never had a chance. Such a monumental win might mean that the Lions could be flat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought that Nico Collins would be ready to go, but he missed Wednesday’s practice. No Collins means no bet on the Texans.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Taylor Decker and Will Anderson are out. As for Nico Collins, he’s an unknown. He returned to practice Friday for a limited session. I thought he would practice more than that this week. If Collins is out, I won’t be betting the Texans, so stay tuned.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Texans have allowed big rushing performances all year. David Montgomery had a couple of games where he rushed just nine times, but he was coming off a knee injury. Things were back to normal last week when he got 17 attempts. Montgomery is usually good to go over his rushing prop when he gets the appropriate workload, and I don’t see why that wouldn’t happen in this game. The best number is over 55.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The more I think about it, the more it seems as though this will be a non-bet. Nico Collins may play, but he’s coming off a hamstring, so he could aggravate the injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Despite all the positive reports about Nico Collins recently, he will not be playing. Thus, I will not be betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched this either. The best line is +4 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Lions are coming off a big win in Green Bay. The Texans just lost on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Will Houston get any bets?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 68% (194,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles, where tonight, the St. Louis Rams take on the Miami Dolphins. Guys, I don’t know why we’re even broadcasting this game. Who even cares about these teams? I bet that if you take my Philadelphia Eagles and put them against both teams combined, we’d win going away. It wouldn’t even be close. Eleven on 22, bring it on! No one beats my Philadelphia Eagles!

Emmitt: Thanks, Rydia. But I have to disagreement with you even if I do not wanted to. The Miami Dolphin not really a good team because Tuna Tagobagalogi always get his head debacled, but the Lost Angeles Ram real good now that Pookie Nacookie and Cupper Koop healthy again. Also, 22 a lot bigger number than 11. I learnted this when I was in school at Florida State University Go Gata School. If you time 11 time two, you probably almost get 22, so that how much bigger 22 is than 11!

Reilly: Emmitt, 11 times two is exactly 22. I learned that in Mother’s home-schooling class a couple of weeks ago. I memorized the whole times table. The trick is to envision how many Nick Foles bobbleheads you have in your room. I have so many Eagles bobbleheads that girls would be impressed if I were allowed to speak to them.

Tollefson: Reilly, you really know nothing about women, do you? Yes, yes, you can impress women all you want with your money, and your cars, and your Nick Foles bobbleheads, but why even bother going through all the trouble? All you need is a towel – it doesn’t even have to be clean – and some chloroform, and bam, you have a female slave for life. Provided she actually does her job, of course. If not, she’ll pay the ultimate price!

Reilly: And what price is that, Tolly? Vacuuming the house? Because Mother makes me do that before all of my Philadelphia Eagles games, and it’s so annoying! Speaking of annoying, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. Tua Tagovailoa has been kidnapped and is currently being anally probed. One of the aliens is Matt Millen. OK, we’re joined by a man who claims that he’s a leader of a country and also a football coach. What a combo. Who are you, and why do you look particularly effeminate?

Tim Walz: I don’t like that word, effeminate, Charissa. I prefer masculinely challenged. It’s a challenge being a man who respects women in today’s society. In fact, I have some tampons with me, Charissa. I have one for you, and I have one for each of the male members of the broadcasting booth. In fact, I have a special tampon that I use here with me that I’m ready to give away to one lucky male broadcaster if they can answer my three questions.

Charissa Thompson: Wait, I can’t help but pay attention to this interview, which is really draining my energy here. You want to give tampons to men? Why?

Tim Walz: Charissa, if you were a man, I’d be offended by what you just asked. Why wouldn’t men need tampons? I put tampons in all the boys bathrooms in elementary schools in my great state of Minnesota. Boys need tampons to stick them up their bungholes. That’s why, Charissa. It’s very important that men do this. Now, it’s time for my riddles. First question: Which players run the meanest pick-six plays in football? Second, which team has the most successful fifth-down percentage in the NFL? And third, how many sacks were thrown for touchdowns last year? These are all difficult questions, Charissa, but I’m a former football coach, just a regular guy, you know? Just one of the boys who knows how to talk football.

Reilly: The answer is my Philadelphia Eagles, my Philadelphia Eagles, and my-

Matt Millen: Hey guys, sorry to crash this party, but I heard someone say something about inserting tampons into bungholes. I need to warn you guys about this. Tampons don’t have good material for backside insertion. I would recommend kielbasas. And trust me, no one knows more about inserting kielbasas into backsides than me. Tim, how about you and I go back to the hotel room with about a dozen or so 100-percent USDA Men and ride those young stallions all night long?

Reilly: Wait, I wanted the autographed tampon! Or should I take the kielbasa? President Camel Toe Harris, you seem to know a lot about a lot of things, which is why you asked Joe Rogan to come to you for an hour instead of you to him for three hours. Is the answer tampons or kielbasas?

Kamala Harris: First of all, let’s be clear here. I come from a middle-class family. And in my middle-class family, we were in between the upper and lower class. We were below the upper class, and we were above the lower class. That is called being in the middle, and that’s why I said I come from a middle-class family because it’s in the middle of upper and lower, which is right in the middle, so that’s why it’s middle class. Because it’s right in the middle instead of being upper and lower. And second, Donald Trump has been running for president for four years, you know what I mean? Do you know what I mean? Do you? Do you know? HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, you once again dodged the question, which is unbelievable, your ability to dodge questions, no one has seen anything like it, and you should re-name your campaign the Dodgers because that’s all you do is dodge questions because you are a total fraud and a total disgrace, and we happen to be here in the city of Lost Angeles, which is the home of the Dodgers, the best baseball team anyone has ever seen this year, because they won the World Series, but frankly they were lucky that they didn’t go against the Trump baseball team because the Trump baseball team is the best baseball team anyone has ever seen, at least that’s what I’ve been told, no one has seen anything like it, leading off is Don Jr., the best leadoff man in the game, he’s hitting 1.000 because he’s never gotten out before, which is incredible, and then there’s Barron, who is 8-foot-9, and has stolen every base there ever is, that’s how good he is at stealing bases, no one has ever seen anything like it, and then there’s Trump, who has hit billions and billions of home runs, the best home run hitter of all time, at least that’s what people tell me, billions and billions of home runs, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE NOT THE ALL-TIME HOME RUN HITTER. MY FOURTH COUSIN THRICE REMOVED IS A BEAR WITH SWEDISH FISH FOR HANDS, AND HE HAS HIT 7.19 TRILLION HOME RUNS IN HIS CAREER.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Who cares about baseball? Baseball is stupid like Charles Davis’ face. I want to win the special tampon. New Daddy, if I win the special tampon, can you take me to Tim Walz’s magical tampon factory where tiny midgets will sing whenever some idiot falls into the river? What do you say, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Catcher’s my favorite position because they get to sit down.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, we weren’t even talking about baseball! I hate baseball!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about baseball, Kevin. Let’s discuss some baseball positions, Kevin. Your New Daddy, who doesn’t love you, Kevin, mentioned, catchers, Kevin. Let’s get to first basemen, Kevin. Moving over, you have second basemen, Kevin. Then, let’s look at shortstops, Kevin. Completing the diamond, Kevin, we have third basemen, Kevin. How about the outfield, Kevin? Before we get to that, Kevin, let’s talk about the designated hitter, Kevin, and then the designated guy who takes kielbasas up the backside, Kevin, which is you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I CHOSE TAMPONS OVER KIELBASAS, SO IF ANYTHING GOES IN MY BACKSIDE, IT’S GOING TO BE TAMPONS BECAUSE I’M A BIG BELIEVER IN TAMPON TIM BECAUSE HE KNOWS HIS FOOTBALL, UNLIKE YOU, WHO KNOWS NOTHING! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Both of these teams have had major offensive upgrades a couple of weeks ago. For the Rams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to action. The thing is, we haven’t even seen them play a full game together at 100 percent. Two weeks ago, Kupp wasn’t 100 percent, while Nacua was ejected for throwing a punch this past Sunday.

Kupp and Nacua being on the field presents a big problem for the Dolphins because they need to focus on Kyren Williams. Miami has one of the weaker run defenses in the NFL, so with Kupp and Nacua in action, the Dolphins won’t be able to stack the box in an effort to stop Williams.

With Williams going, Matthew Stafford will be able to operate in favorable passing situations. The Dolphins already had a diminished pass rush because of various injuries, so they likely won’t get to Stafford, who is protected well.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Miami’s offensive upgrade is obviously Tua Tagovailoa. Mike McDaniel was exposed as a fraud when he failed to coach up any of his backup quarterbacks, as he did stupid things like give Alec Ingold as many touches as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined in some games. Tagovailoa masks McDaniel’s incompetence.

Tagovailoa may have a difficult time operating in this game. The Rams have a terrific pass rush that gave Geno Smith major problems. The Dolphins don’t have a very good offensive line, so Tagovailoa will be pressured all night.

Tagovailoa won’t be able to lean on the rushing attack because Miami doesn’t run block well, so he will have to counter by throwing short passes to his supporting cast, namely De’Von Achane. The Rams have a shaky linebacking corps, so this could be a viable strategy.

RECAP: Both of these teams have one major defensive weakness. The Rams can be beaten over the middle of the field because their linebacking corps is pedestrian, while the Dolphins are weak to the run. I don’t trust McDaniel to recognize Los Angeles’ weakness. McVay is far more trustworthy to do so, and he has the personnel to attack this liability anyway. Williams should be able to trample over Miami’s defense.

The Rams also project to pressure the opposing quarterback more than the Dolphins, so they project to win the matchups. They also have another advantage, which is that they’re the West Coast home team in a night game. Circadian rhythms are a real thing, and West Coast teams have a big advantage in night games over East Coast teams.

I like the Rams for a couple of units. I’ve been siding with them the past few weeks because they’ve improved in the wake of their receivers returning from injury, and I’ll continue to stay on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Dolphins. We have no injury report yet, so I don’t know why.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a few injury question marks. Tyreek Hill was downgraded Friday with a wrist. Rob Havenstein hasn’t practiced yet because of an ankle. Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila may return from injured reserve after being full on Friday. We’ll have to see what the final injury report says.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Tyreek Hill missed practice Friday and Saturday. If he’s out, I’ll bump this up to three units.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Tyreek Hill has been described as a true game-time decision. I’ll be on the Rams for two units if he plays, and perhaps three units if he doesn’t (depending on what the spread is). The sharps were on the Dolphins earlier in the week, but other sharp money has come in on the Rams the past couple of days.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re betting Jonnu Smith over 34.5 receiving yards. Tyreek Hill is banged up, and the Rams are very weak to tight ends anyway. The best number is over 34.5 -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw in the Smith over 34.5 receiving yards along with De’Von Achane over 5.5 receptions, Matthew Stafford over 250.5 passing yards, and Puka Nacua over 67.5 receiving yards. Achane has averaged seven catches per game and hasn’t had fewer than six in any of Tua Tagovailoa’s starts. Stafford has exceeded this passing total in every game in which both Nacua and Cooper Kupp played. And I prefer Nacua over Kupp because the Dolphins are strong versus slot receivers. This $25 parlay pays $208.08 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned in the Monday afternoon update, there’s been sharp money coming in on both sides. Tyreek Hill is active, but it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent. I’m going to be on the Rams for two units. The best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 51% (230,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 29-20 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.