NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
2024 NFL Picks: 65-65-5 (-$2,315)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams had improved each week heading into last Sunday’s game, but he finally suffered a setback. This wasn’t a surprise, given how good Washington’s defense has been in recent weeks. Dan Quinn has done a terrific job improving Ron Rivera’s horrific unit. The Redskins are close to 10th in pressure rate, so they were able to harass Williams all afternoon.

Williams won’t face such difficulty in this matchup. The Cardinals don’t have anything near a top-10 pressure rate. In fact, they’re ranked third-to-last in that regard. With a much cleaner pocket, Williams will be able to locate his talented receivers against a secondary that isn’t very good.

The Bears should be able to run the ball effectively, too. D’Andre Swift had a horrific start to his Chicago tenure, but has somehow become a dynamic back again. The Cardinals often struggle against the run, so Swift should once again have another strong performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray got off to a slow start against the Dolphins, but had a terrific fourth quarter. He was at his best moving out of the pocket and looping passes back over the middle of the field. It felt like many of these passes would normally have been intercepted, but it didn’t seem as though Miami’s inept coaching staff understood what was happening.

Murray will have a tougher matchup this Sunday. Miami was down three of its better pass rushers last week, so it had no answer for Murray in the fourth quarter. The Bears are able to generate a heavy pass rush, so Murray won’t have as much time to find Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.

The Bears are at their weakest on this side of the ball when attempting to stop the run. Like Swift, James Conner should have a great performance, and I trust Conner more than his counterpart.

RECAP: One thing I wanted to know heading into this game was how teams recovered from losing on a Hail Mary. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much of a sample size. Since 2002, there have been five Hail Mary victories in the regular season. The most recent team to lose, the Bills (to the Cardinals in 2020), rebounded with a win and cover, but had a bye week after the fact. The other four losers were the 2015 Lions, 2012 Packers, 2010 Texans, and 2002 Jaguars. Detroit and Green Bay failed to cover, while Jacksonville and Houston covered. So, there’s not much to go off of, as you can see.

Regardless, I like the Bears to rebound from their loss, and that has more to do with the opponent’s motivation more than theirs. The Cardinals are a team that hasn’t been able to sustain success under Murray. In the Murray era, Arizona is 15-20 straight up and 16-18 against the spread following a victory. Even worse, the Cardinals are just 4-9 against the spread with Murray after beating a team as an underdog of more than three points.

The Bears are also the better team. Chicago and Arizona have similar records, but the Bears are 10th in net adjusted EPA, while the Cardinals are 17th. Granted, the superior team doesn’t always win and cover, but the superior team isn’t always an underdog against a team that could be distracted.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got word that a gambling syndicate hammered the Cardinals. I don’t know why. Maybe because Montez Sweat missed Wednesday’s practice, albeit with a shin. Perhaps someone knows that this injury is worse than it seems. I have no idea.

PLAYER PROPS: Cole Kmet’s receiving yardage prop looks great. The Cardinals surrender lots of yards to opposing tight ends. With the Bears having multiple injuries on the offensive line, Caleb Williams will have to go more intermediate than deep. The best number is over 28.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears have a lot of injuries. They might be down a couple of offensive linemen, while Montez Sweat was downgraded to DNP in Friday’s practice. Chicago will also be without Jaquan Brisker and perhaps Kyler Gordon. I’m switching my pick to Arizona, and I may bet this game depending on the inactives.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps continue to pound the Cardinals. I don’t love it, but I think they’re on the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news for the Bears. The good news is that they’ll have some of their questionable offensive linemen on the field, with Teven Jenkins and Ryan Bates both active. The bad news is that they’ll be missing several key players, including Montez Sweat, Kyler Gordon, and Jaquan Brisker. They’ll also be missing offensive lineman Braxton Jones. The sharps, as mentioned, are on the Cardinals. The best line is Arizona -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

How will the Bears respond to the Hail Mary loss? Arizona may not be able to sustain success once again.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 59% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 49-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007. ???

Kyler Murray is 18-9 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars received some great news Monday evening. It was initially announced that Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis all suffered injuries and could all miss multiple weeks. Just when everything was looking extremely bleak, it was reported that Thomas’ injury is just a day-to-day matter, rather than an injury that was going to span 2-4 weeks.

It’s still unclear if Thomas will be ready this week, but Jacksonville will need him with Kirk out indefinitely with a broken collar bone and Davis banged up as well. Then again, it may not matter at all if the Jaguars are outmatched as they appear to be against the Eagles. Philadelphia’s defense has improved markedly since the bye. The secondary has limited some of the talented receivers it has faced recently, while the front line has gotten after the quarterback more effectively lately. This latter factor is not great news for Trevor Lawrence, who is often under siege.

It doesn’t appear as though the Jaguars will be able to run the ball well either. Tank Bigsby has been a great improvement over the ineffective Travis Etienne, but this is a difficult matchup. Following a slow start in this regard, the Eagles have defended the rush well of late. No single rusher has gained more than 49 yards on the ground against them since Week 3.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles defense isn’t the only unit that has improved since the bye. Philadelphia has scored much more consistently after the idle week. Of course, this was expected because Lane Johnson and the top two receivers were sidelined. No wonder the Eagles have scored more with everyone back on the field.

Well, not everyone is back for Philadelphia, as Dallas Goedert is still sidelined. I mention Goedert because the Jaguars are very weak to tight ends. They used to also struggle against No. 1 receivers, but Tyson Campbell’s return helped change that. A.J. Brown could still have a big game, but it’s not an easy matchup for him.

The Philadelphia skill player most likely to go off is Saquon Barkley. The dynamic back has an incredibly easy matchup as a receiver out of the backfield. Jacksonville has surrendered some big gains to pass-catching backs, and Barkley is obviously very capable at going the distance after he snatches the ball.

RECAP: I may have been one week early on my fade of the Eagles. I thought they’d be flat against the Bengals because they clobbered the Giants. Everyone is now calling them one of the best teams in the NFL. When the Eagles haven’t been the top team in the NFL, they’ve disappointed in these spots. Furthermore, Philadelphia has the Cowboys coming up next week, so this could be a look-ahead situation.

Despite this, I’m not sure if I can quite get behind backing a bad team like the Jaguars. I may have done so a week ago, but Jacksonville suddenly has cluster injuries. The team will be missing Kirk, and perhaps also Thomas and Davis, so Lawrence will have to rely on guys like Parker Washington to move the chains, which doesn’t sound appealing at all. I’ll be passing on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacksonville’s offensive line could be a disaster in this game. Cam Robinson was traded, while both Brandon Scherff and Ezra Cleveland missed Wednesday’s practice. Brian Thomas Jr. was at least limited.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m looking to bet some of the tertiary pieces in this game, whether it’s Parker Washington or Grant Calcaterra, but those aren’t available yet because of injury question marks.

SATURDAY NOTES: I switching to the Eagles because the Jaguars are so banged up. I may end up betting this game depending on the inactives list. There are too many question marks at the moment.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: We’ll be betting this game depending on the injury status of the Jaguars, so check back around 3:30 for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brian Thomas Jr. will play, so I don’t see a great betting opportunity in this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one. I still would side with the Eagles. The best line is -7 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are coming off a blowout win, and they play the Cowboys next.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 79% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Jaguars are 63-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 19-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 47/5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It was quite the surprise that Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both returned last week to play the entire game. Kupp was expected, but Nacua was an utter shock. The Rams, as a result, moved the chains with ease against the Vikings.

The Seahawks haven’t maintained a healthy secondary lately, so the Rams should be able to pick up where they left off last Thursday. Seattle will attempt to counter this with its terrific top-10 pass rush, but the Rams protect Matthew Stafford well.

Of course, Stafford is likely to operate out of favorable down-and-distance situations because of how porous the Seahawks’ run defense is. Seattle has been gashed against the run all year, and Kyren Williams will certainly continue what opposing backs have done to this defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Rams endured their injury issues at receiver earlier in the year, the Seahawks are experiencing that phenomenon now. D.K. Metcalf missed last week’s game with a knee injury. Mike Macdonald said that Metcalf’s chances of playing are “looking optimistic,” though it’s unclear if the dynamic receiver will be operating at 100 percent.

Geno Smith will need Metcalf back on the field because the offense didn’t have nearly as much juice last week as it usually does. It won’t help matters that Smith will have to deal with a pass rush that generates pressure more often than any other team in the NFL except for the Vikings. Smith’s protection has been shaky at times this year, so this is not good news for Seattle.

Like the Rams, the Seahawks have a talented back they can deploy. Kenneth Walker has been excellent in most games this year. Los Angeles isn’t horrible against the run, but the team doesn’t exactly shine in this category either, so Walker figures to have a nice game.

RECAP: As of Tuesday evening, there’s more sharp money on the Seahawks than any other team in the NFL this week except for the Bears. One professional bettor I follow on Twitter posted a $1,000 ticket on Seattle.

I’m a bit surprised by this because I like the Rams. I get that the Seahawks are a somewhat decent team coming off an embarrassing loss, but it’s not like the Rams will be flat, or anything, even off an upset because this game means so much. This is a battle for first place in the NFC West. I don’t think Seattle has the motivational edge.

Besides, the Rams have owned the Seahawks over the years. They’ve won 14 of the 21 previous meetings. Perhaps this dynamic will change with a new coaching staff in Seattle, but the Rams are the better team. They possess the superior defense (No. 5 in adjusted EPA), and their receiving corps is healthier. The EPA numbers say that the Rams should be a 6.5-point favorite, and while my own personal numbers aren’t as bullish, I like seeing that because the Rams make for an appealing team to bet this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.K. Metcalf didn’t practice Wednesday, but it sounds as though he’ll be able to return to action this week. He may not be 100 percent, however.

PLAYER PROPS: It’s currently unknown if Puka Nacua and D.K. Metcalf will play, so the receiving props aren’t available yet. I also have interest in Kyren Williams, but Nacua’s status affects that because Williams will get more carries if his team is leading, and there’s a greater chance that will occur if Nacua is playing.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf is out. Puka Nacua’s status is unknown, but he had the dreaded flood (Full-Limited-DNP) in practice this week, so he’s trending toward sitting. I’m going to drop the unit count for now. If Nacua plays and projects to be close to 100 percent, I’ll put them back.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: We’re still waiting on Puka Nacua’s status, but I’d be worried that he’s not 100 percent. I may just not bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Reports indicate that Puka Nacua is “full go,” but the Rams can’t be trusted to tell the truth at all. I still would side with the Rams. There’s been sharp action on both sides of this game. The best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Late bets coming in on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 69% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Seahawks are 60-47 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 53 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Packers because we don’t know which quarterback they’ll be starting this week. “No Cookie” Jordan Love injured his groin against the Jaguars and had to leave the game. It didn’t appear to be a serious injury, but he could be kept out of this contest. If so, Malik Willis will get the nod once again.

This matchup would have been far more difficult for Willis a few weeks ago. That’s when Aidan Hutchinson was healthy. Hutchinson’s injury has diminished the pass rush, which allowed Calvin Ridley to generate 100-plus receiving yards in the first quarter against Detroit’s secondary. The Titans didn’t even have any viable receivers beyond Ridley, and it’s not like Ridley was catching passes from a great quarterback. Imagine what Green Bay’s receivers will do in this matchup.

The Packers won’t have as much success running the ball with Josh Jacobs. The former Raider put together a strong performance last week, but the Lions have one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions are stout versus the run, the Packers tend to be weak against it. They got off to a strong start in that regard earlier in the season, but they’ve struggled against the rush lately. They rank 26th against ground attacks over the past four weeks.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should have plenty of success trampling Green Bay’s front seven, which will set up easy play-action opportunities for Jared Goff. The veteran quarterback will need those, given that the Packers are much better at containing aerial attacks.

The Packers are at their best when it comes to stopping the pass on the outside. That would come into play against Jameson Williams, but he’s still suspended. Green Bay will have a bigger problem against Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

RECAP: It’s not yet known who will start for the Packers, but I’m going to assume it’s Willis just based on the spread. Detroit being favored by 3.5-4 on the road doesn’t suggest that Love will be returning early from his groin injury.

If Willis starts, I’ll be on the Packers. Willis has proven that he can hold down the fort while Love is dealing with an injury. I also love backing reserve quarterbacks against non-elite defenses, and considering Hutchinson’s absence and the state of the secondary, we can safely say that the Lions don’t have an elite defense.

In fact, I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest that the Lions are trending into overrated territory. That may seem odd to say considering that they just won 52-14, but they were outgained by 200 yards and averaged 1.1 fewer yards per play than the Titans. They just made big plays on special teams, which won’t happen every week.

Something else to consider is that this is the first time Goff will be playing outdoors all year. Goff has historically played far worse outside in the elements as opposed to being indoors, and there is rain in the early forecast. I’ll be betting heavily on the Packers unless Love attempts to once again return early from his injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As of Thursday morning, there’s more sharp money on the Packers than any other team. Despite this, “No Cookie” Jordan Love missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: Jordan Love’s status means that most of the Packer props are off the board, so we’ll have to wait for those.

SATURDAY NOTES: The weather looks grim for Jared Goff. It’s going to be rainy and windy, and Goff never plays well in the elements. I wish we knew if “No Cookie” Jordan Love would be out, but we don’t at the moment. I have no interest in the Packers with Love because he may be hindered with his injury. I’d prefer Green Bay with Malik Willis, assuming that comes with a line of +3.5 or better.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: We’re waiting for confirmation on “No Cookie” Jordan Love. If he’s in, I’ll be betting the Lions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Love will play. This is a mistake because he’s once again returning too early from an injury. I’m not loving the weather in Green Bay, which is the only thing keeping me off making this a big play. I’m still willing to bet the Lions for two units, though the sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is Detroit -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 66% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Lions have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Packers are 65-41 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Packers are 9-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.

Matt LaFleur is 53-37 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Lions -4.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Rain, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings suffered a devastating loss last Thursday. Sure, they fell to the Rams, but the primary focus was on Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending injury. This was crushing for Minnesota, as Darrisaw is one of the top left tackles in the NFL. I’d say he’ll sorely be missed, but he was already missed in the game versus the Rams when Sam Darnold was pressured heavily from the blind side.

The Colts should be able to get to Darnold, which is very problematic for the Vikings. Darnold struggles more than most quarterback with pressure, so it’s bad timing for him that DeForest Buckner will be playing in his second game back from injury. Buckner occupies the interior of the line of scrimmage, but his presence will help the edge rushers get home. Thus, it’ll be more difficult than usual for Darnold to connect with Justin Jefferson.

Minnesota’s main hope of moving the chains in this game will be via Aaron Jones. Despite Buckner’s return to action, Indianapolis still struggles against the run. Joe Mixon just trampled them, and Jones could do the same.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jonathan Taylor is another talented Colts player who returned to action last week. Taylor, however, doesn’t project as well as Buckner for this game. The Vikings are second against the run in terms of adjusted EPA, so he may not have much running room.

If this is true, then it would have been very difficult for Indianapolis to score had they kept Anthony Richardson as the starter. I’m burying the lede here, but Richardson was benched in favor of Joe Flacco. This was the correct move, as Richardson has regressed tremendously, seemingly getting worse each week. He was 10-of-32 last week, which is just ridiculous. His teammates dropped some passes, but still. There was even one moment where Richardson checked out of the game. At the time, the announcers believed he was injured, but he told the media that he was tired. Yes, this is Indianapolis’ starting quarterback.

And it was only going to get worse for Richardson because this was probably the worst matchup he’d see all year. Brian Flores calls blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Richardson is HORRIBLE against the blitz. I needed to capitalize that word to stress how bad he is against the blitz. When blitzed this year, Richardson is 10-of-24 for 158 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He has a 29.4 completion percentage and a turnover-worthy percentage of 6.8. By comparison, Flacco’s completion percentage and turnover-worthy percentage are 51.6 and 2.8, respectively. Flacco gives the Colts a good chance of moving the chains, whereas the Colts would have been dead with Richardson.

RECAP: It’s astonishing how much one injury can change things. Darrisaw’s season-ending injury was a colossal loss for the Vikings. I would have considered them in this matchup if Darrisaw were slated to play, but it’s quite apparent that Minnesota won’t be nearly as offensively potent without their stellar left tackle.

The Colts already looked appealing because of Darrisaw’s absence. They seem even better now in the wake of Richardson’s benching. Flores is great at befuddling raw quarterbacks with his creative blitz schemes. I mentioned Richardson’s horrible numbers versus the blitz earlier, so I wanted no part of Indianapolis with Richardson at quarterback.

Things are much different with Flacco. Not only is Flacco better in this matchup; the Colts will have added motivation. Whenever a team fires a coach or benches a quarterback, they play much harder because other players don’t want fingers pointed at them.

Indianapolis is the obvious play. We get a motivated team against an overrated opponent missing its top lineman. The Colts have also kept every game to within six this year, so I don’t see why that would suddenly change.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The only noteworthy thing on the injury report is that Blake Cashman was DNP in Wednesday’s practice. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs also missed practice on Wednesday, but this has been a trend for them over the weeks.

SATURDAY NOTES: No new surprises on the injury report. Blake Cashman has been ruled out, which is great for the Colts because Minnesota’s defense is so much worse without him.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Josh Downs is our primary bet in this game. The Vikings are weaker over the middle of the field with Blake Cashman sidelined, and Downs has been unlocked because of the Anthony Richardson benching. The best number is over 61.5 receiving yards -120 at BetMGM.

I’m going to toss in Downs over 66.5 receiving yards on FanDuel, which has another 30-percent odds boost, and I’m going to do a same-game parlay with both running backs over 74.5, and Sam Darnold under 249.5 passing yards. Both teams have shown a weakness to the run lately, especially with Cashman sidelined for Minnesota. And with Christian Darrisaw sidelined, Darnold’s passing numbers could be suppressed. This $25 parlay pays $371.65 with a 30-percent profit boost on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I’m still very high on the Colts, but I’m hoping to get a viable +6 line somewhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We got our +6 line. In fact, you can find one everywhere. There’s some slight sharp action on the Vikings, but I still love the Colts. The best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts have benched their quarterback, so they’ll be playing extra hard this week.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -6.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

The public still believes in the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (186,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Vikings are 45-37 ATS at home since 2014 (14-22 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Tampa Bay Schmuckaneers take on the Kansas Chiefs. Guys, I realy hate these teams. My Philadelphia Eagles played the Chiefs in the Super Game, and they said we lost when we really won. I even called the NFL offices, and this woman named Georgia answered, and I asked her to find my Philadelphia Eagles four more points so we could win 39-38. She said she would call me back later, so I think what’s going to happen is that she’s eventually going to find the points, and my Philadelphia Eagles will secretly be crowned Super Bowl champions once again!

Emmitt: Thanks, Cid. This remind me the time I call customer servers hotline. I buyed a new TV, and he do not work, no matter how many time I push the button. The guy on the phone ask me if I plug it in, and I said, yes of course, I plug the two metal thing into the two hole. And then he ask if the remove control have battery, and I say yes. And then he ask me if I buyed a toaster instead of a TV by accidentalment, and that is when I realize that I was trying to turn on my toaster the entire times.

Reilly: Emmitt, believe me, you’re not the only one who made a mistake like this. Mother asked me to make toast for her once, but I didn’t know how, so I turned on the TV to watch highlights of my Philadelphia Eagles, so she didn’t have toast that night, and Mother grounded me.

Tollefson: Reilly, you are such a wuss. What sort of man uses a toaster, or a microwave, or an oven? This is all a women’s job, and if you were a real man, women across the Delaware Valley would be lining up outside your house to work your toaster, microwave, and oven for you. And if there are no women lining up, just go down to the local bar, follow a woman into the bathroom, strangle her, and then carry her body to your cellar.

Reilly: Tolly, Mother says if I touch any girls, it’ll be seven years of bad luck for me. And I can’t afford seven years of bad luck because what if my Nick Foles bobblehead collection catches on fire? I can’t afford to live without my Nick Foles bobblehead doll collection. Speaking of women who can’t touch me, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and MCL, so he’ll miss the opening drive of this game, but he plans to return shortly later. I’m here with a tiny Asian man. I’m not sure what your name is. What’s your name, little guy?

Kim Jung Un: My name Kim Jung-Un, and I want arr NFL game pray in North Korea. I hate American except for Donard Trump and Dennis Rodman. And guy who say kidnap women good idea. I going to kidnap you Charissa Thompson and rock you in my cerrar, hwa hwa hwa hwa!

Charissa Thompson: What did you just say? Ugh, these interviews are so boring. Why do you think NFL games deserve to be in, wait, what country are you from again? Japan?

Kim Jung Un: This why woman stupid and must obey arr order! NFR game berong in North Korea because we have citizen who do everything I say, and if they do not forrow direction, I going to kirr them! Brow them up with rarge rocket!

Reilly: Hey King Jong Moon, why are you talking in a stereotypical Asian voice? That’s going to get someone in trouble here. Don’t you know that this might be offensive to some people, like the losers who pretended to be offended by the Puerto Rico joke? Camel Toe Harris, when you win the presidency, can you throw this King Jong Moon guy in prison because he’s being so mean to Asian folks?

Kamala Harris: In the last four years, I have been the vice president of the United States. And in those four years, I have done a lot of things. I talked to a lot of people in those four years. And in those conversations, I’ve learned what dreams, hopes, and aspirations these Americans have. I’ve learned a lot in those four years. But what I didn’t learn anything about were rockets. Did you know that rockets are things that rocket up to the stars? That’s where the word comes from. Rockets rocket up high, HAHAHAAHAHA! Isn’t that something? Rockets rocket up? It’s like they invented the word so the other word matches the other word, and then you can use the two words together and it sounds the same. Rocket rockets HAHAHAAHAHAA!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, this is another example where you are a total loser and a total disgrace, you know nothing about rockets, even Little Rocket Man knows more about rockets than you, and he doesn’t know anything about rockets, which is pathetic, frankly, because he talks about having rockets and fancy buttons to use those rockets, but his button is so small, he probably can’t even see it under a microscope, and his rockets don’t actually work, and only a total loser like Kamala would believe that his rockets work, but they don’t work, nothing in North Korea works because it’s a s**thole country, believe me, I’ve been to North Korea, the only president ever to go into North Korea, and no one could believe it when I walked in, and I could see the fake cities they have in North Korea, they are very fake, even faker than Kamala’s personality, and they’re called Potemkin Villages, and if Kamala becomes president she’ll be a Potemkin president, but let’s face it, she’s not going to be president because she’s a total loser and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, IT’S FUNNY THAT YOU BRING UP POTEMKIN VILLAGES BECAUSE MY SEVENTH UNCLE IS A POTEMKIN UNCLE WITH TENNIS BALLS FOR EYES.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! We need to concentrate on finding these points so we can add it to my Philadelphia Eagles score and then laugh in the Chiefs face. Ha! My Philadelphia Eagles are the real winners of that Super Bowl. Tell them, New Daddy. Tell them who the real winner of that Super Bowl was!

Jay Cutler: Bears.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, we weren’t even talking about the Bears! Get your act together, or you’ll be a Pumptemkin Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about Potemkin Villages, Kevin. Let’s discuss some Potemkin Villages, Kevin. How about we begin with Theranos, Kevin. We can segue into Suzdal, Kevin. How about Tiefort City, Kevin? Care to share about Theresienstadt, Kevin? Last but not least there’s Kijong-dong, Kevin. Let’s not confuse that with regular dongs, Kevin, which you don’t have, Kevin, because you are a woman, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I SWEAR I’M A MAN, AND EVEN IF I CAN’T PROVE IT, I’LL HAVE GEORGIA FIND MY Y CHROMOSOME AFTER SHE FINDS POINTS BELONGING TO MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, AND THEN YOU’LL CRY YOURSELF TO SLEEP WHEN I PROVE YOU WRONG! We’ll be back after this!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This would have been an excellent matchup a few weeks ago. Kansas City has one of the top defenses in the NFL against the run, but can be beaten via the pass. The Buccaneers had one of the top aerial assaults in the NFL with Mayfield throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

That’s obviously not the case anymore. Mayfield had a small amount of success against the Saints, but he was picked twice and wasn’t the same without his two stellar receivers. Mayfield still has Cade Otton at his disposal, and the Chiefs tend to be weak against tight ends, but given the lack of talent Tampa Bay now has at wideout, Steve Spagunolo can afford to concentrate more on Otton.

Spagnuolo will also be able to handle the Tampa Bay rushing attack. Bucky Irving has proven to be an upgrade over Rachaad White, but the Chiefs have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so Irving won’t be able to gain much on the ground.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There won’t be much running from either team in this game. The Buccaneers have been able to stymie opposing ground attacks very well this year as long as Vita Vea has been on the field. Kareem Hunt has enjoyed some positive performances since taking over as the starting running back, but he won’t do nearly as well in this matchup.

The Chiefs will have much more success throwing the ball. Receiver isn’t the only position in which the Buccaneers have cluster injuries. They were missing their top two cornerbacks last week, so they’re going to have trouble covering a receiving corps that added DeAndre Hopkins. The veteran wideout didn’t do much in his first game, but he’ll know more of the playbook this week.

Of course, there’s also Travis Kelce, who presents a huge problem for the Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams at covering tight ends, as evidenced by multiple-touchdown performances by Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews the past couple of weeks. Kelce figures to have a huge night.

RECAP: The Chiefs are obviously the better team in this matchup, but will they win by margin? They have a history of not doing so in the regular season. They just beat the Raiders by only seven, after all. Granted, Las Vegas got there via a back-door touchdown, but Mayfield is capable of doing that.

I’d like Mayfield’s chances of back-dooring the Chiefs much more if he had his receivers available, but that’s obviously not the case. Still, I find myself wondering why the Chiefs would put forth maximum effort in this game. They have a divisional battle against the Broncos after this contest, and I can’t see them taking Tampa Bay seriously.

This is Buccaneers or nothing for me because we won’t see Kansas City’s top effort, but I’m not excited about backing a team with cluster injuries at multiple positions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s nothing new to say here, given that we haven’t had an injury report yet. Evan made a good case for the Buccaneers during our Tuesday YouTube episode:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers were already a defensive mess, and now they may not have Lavonte David because he missed two practices to start the week.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Lavonte David doesn’t have an injury designation, which is huge for the Buccaneers. I still lean Tampa Bay, but probably won’t be betting this one.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I don’t plan on betting this game. In fact, I’m close to switching to the Chiefs. There’s a decent chance the Buccaneers get a back-door cover, but that’s what we’re counting on in this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. I’ll have my player prop bets and same-game parlay posted shortly.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love Cade Otton tonight. The Chiefs have been incapable of stopping tight ends this year – remember Isaiah Likely in Week 1? – and Baker Mayfield has no viable receivers remaining. The best number is over 51.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

I’m going to toss in the Otton prop with Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards, Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions, and Rachaad White over 24.5 receiving yards. The Buccaneers are also weak to tight ends. Mayfield will have to throw a lot, which means he’s likely to throw a pick, especially given that he’s second in the NFL in interceptions. Mayfield also figures to target White heavily. This $25 parlay is boosted 20 percent at BetMGM, and it pays $232.50.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I won’t be betting this game. The sharps haven’t taken a side either. If you want to bet the Buccaneers, the best line is +9 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Chiefs play the Broncos next week.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.

Computer Model: Chiefs -9.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 52% (248,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 138-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Patrick Mahomes is 91-24 SU, 63-50 ATS (49-37 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.