NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
2024 NFL Picks: 28-31-1 (-$1,390)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 3 Analysis: The good news is that we had a winning week, albeit not a great one because of the horrible Monday night props. We nailed both of our four-unit picks, and we hit most of our player props. The bad news is that both of our five-unit picks lost. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 3 units (win): I don’t know why I didn’t bet more on the Jets, given that the Patriots were playing on a short week following an overtime game.

Steelers, 4 units (win): Justin Herbert was surprisingly effective when he played, but he predictably got injured because of his high ankle sprain.

Broncos, 4 units (win): I thought the Broncos would cover, but never expected a 26-7 win. It’s crazy how lopsided this game was.

Titans, 5 units (loss): We have now lost 15 units plus the vig on the Titans this year. Will Levis sucked again, but the defense was more to blame for being incapable of stopping Malik Willis. I thought this was a good defense, but I guess I was wrong.

Dolphins, 5 units (loss): Has any coach ever hurt his stock in a span of two weeks more than Mike McDaniel has? I can’t recall such an occurrence. McDaniel has no feel for the game, and he doesn’t understand how to utilize his best threats. And why did he insist on putting Tim Boyle on his active roster when his team destroyed Boyle last year? I think my mistake here was underestimating Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks couldn’t get off the field versus the Patriots, but Mike Macdonald knew how to deal with Miami’s inept quarterbacks.

Lions, 3 units (win): The Lions almost blew this one, but they managed to hang on to the cover.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys posted some pretty offensive stats in their game against Baltimore, but don’t be deceived by those. Most of what they produced came in garbage time, as the Ravens held a huge lead entering the fourth quarter. Baltimore was able to hound Dak Prescott and shut down the run, limiting Dallas’ offense until the team fell asleep at the wheel.

The Cowboys will face an even greater pass-rushing threat. Brian Burns came alive last week and tortured Deshaun Watson. He and the rest of New York’s front figure to have similar success in this contest, given that the Cowboys have offensive line issues. First-round rookie tackle Tyler Guyton has been awful, and he’ll once again be exposed.

The good news for Dallas is that the Giants have some huge liabilities on this side of the ball as well. The secondary is horrible, so CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson could both have massive outputs when Prescott gets time in the pocket.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Though the Cowboys have concerns with their offensive line, particularly when it comes to blocking Burns, that’s nothing compared to what New York will be confronted with in this matchup.

The Giants are notorious for having a weak offensive line, which has cost them in recent matchups versus Dallas. Micah Parsons and the rest of the Cowboys have made Daniel Jones’ life miserable, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this time as far as just the protection is concerned. Jones lucked out last week with Myles Garrett being banged up, but the Cowboys will put immense pressure on him, preventing the Jones-to-Malik Nabers connection from occurring too often.

Dallas’ main defensive concern is its inability to stop the run. Both the Saints and Ravens were able to take advantage of this massive liability in consecutive weeks. The Giants won’t be able to do that with Devin Singletary. While Singletary is a solid runner, he’s not on the same level as Alvin Kamara and Lamar Jackson, and the Giants don’t run block all that well for him anyway.

RECAP: As I wrote last week, I have a primary rule concerning Thursday and London games. Given the brief preparation time, I will always bet the superior team if I believe they will be focused. The inferior squad just doesn’t have enough of an opportunity to create a game plan to overcome the tougher foe.

Despite the Cowboys being debacled in consecutive weeks, I believe they are the superior team in this matchup. Yes, the Giants just beat the Browns, but Cleveland is a disaster. Besides, Dallas beat the Browns by much more than the Giants did.

I love the Cowboys’ matchup versus the Giants, as it’s the reason these meetings are often lopsided. Dallas’ pass rush is just too fierce for New York’s horrible offensive line to handle. Despite this, the movement from the advance spread (-7) is three points, which is far too much of an overreaction based on a single week of football. It’s not even like there were any major injuries to change the dynamics of these teams. I thought Dallas would win this game easily ahead of Week 3, and I still believe that.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking a lot about what I said regarding the Cowboys being the superior team. I just don’t know if that’s true. They’ve been blown out the past two weeks, while the Giants have a real threat in Malik Nabers. I think I’m going to lower the unit count down to one, as this game has gotten very unappealing from a betting perspective.

PLAYER PROP BET: My favorite prop from this game is Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards. Every running back has gashed Dallas thus far, and Singletary should continue that trend. He has eclipsed 60 rushing yards in the past two games, and this is his easiest matchup to date. I’m also going 100+ rushing yards at +425. The best number is over 60.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay the Singletary rushing prop with Malik Nabers over 70.5 receiving yards, Dak Prescott over 263.5 passing yards, and CeeDee Lamb over 80.5 receiving yards. Nabers is ridiculous and should continue to thrive. The Cowboys, meanwhile, can’t run the ball, and they’ll have success throwing into a Giants secondary missing some players. This $25 parlay pays $176.63 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still leainng toward the Cowboys despite their horrible performances the past two weeks. The sharps, conversely, took the Giants at +6. The best line is Dallas -5 -110 at Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.

Computer Model: Giants -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

No surprise that the public still loves the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 86% (363,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 18 of the last 22 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Disaster struck for the Falcons in the second quarter against the Chiefs. They were moving the chains efficiently, beginning the game with a touchdown drive, but they lost two key members of the offensive line when Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman got hurt. Both will sorely be missed in this matchup.

The Falcons had a quality offensive line, but that’s no longer the case without McGary and Dalman. The Saints have generated lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season, so that will continue with two-fifths of the blocking unit not available. This is troublesome for Kirk Cousins, who struggles with pressure more than most quarterbacks in the NFL.

The absences of McGary and Dalman will also affect the rushing attack. Despite surrendering a long touchdown run to Saquon Barkley, the Saints are eighth against the run, so they’ll be able to keep Bijan Robinson in check on most instances.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints had their own injury with Eric McCoy going down. McCoy was sorely missed against the Eagles, as the Saints could no longer protect as well as they did to begin the year. However, New Orleans has just one injury, so this is something the Saints can counter with some game planning. It was difficult to make an in-game adjustment, but it’ll be much easier to have a whole week to prepare for one injury as opposed to multiple like the Falcons have.

Besides, the Falcons don’t bring much pressure on the quarterback. Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett each have a couple of sacks, but that’s it. This won’t be like last week when Philadelphia’s defense swarmed Derek Carr and disrupted anything he and the offense were trying following the opening drive.

Atlanta also has to worry about Alvin Kamara. The Eagles put the clamps on Kamara, as Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis performed well together for the first time all year. The Falcons have the 10th-worst ground defense, so they’re going to have to pay extra attention to Kamara, which should allow Carr to thrive off play-action opportunities.

RECAP: If you didn’t click the link above, you didn’t see that I have the Saints in the underrated teams list. It seems as though the public isn’t thinking of them highly as much because of last week’s loss. There’s no shame in suffering a defeat to the Eagles, however, and New Orleans was hurt by the injury to McCoy. It’s very difficult to make in-game adjustments to offensive line injuries, particularly to those at center, so that would explain why the Saints dropped their first game of the year despite being favored.

It’s unclear what McCoy’s status is, but if he can play, it’s hard not to like the Saints, given the issues Atlanta currently has with its offensive line. It’s nice that we’re getting some line value with the Saints, who should be favored according to my projected line and the EPA numbers. In fact, the Saints should be -6.5 according to EPA!

I will still like the Saints if McCoy is sidelined, albeit to a lesser extent. Having an entire week to prepare without McCoy will allow the Saints to recover offensively, though they still won’t be as potent as they could be on that side of the ball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote that I favored the Saints because they were missing one lineman instead of the Falcons, who would be down two blockers. Well, Eric McCoy is out, while Cesar Ruiz missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee. He also left the game early last week, so if he misses, it’s going to be difficult for the Saints to move the chains. I’m actually going to switch sides and select the Falcons, but I still don’t envision myself betting this game.

PLAYER PROP: I like Bijan Robinson under rushing yards. Robinson has eclipsed 70 rushing yards just once in three games, and now he’ll be without two offensive linemen. Robinson is going against the league’s No. 8 rush defense, so he’ll have issues reaching this figure. I wanted to wager on this one early before the number is bet down. The best number is under 76.5 -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only will the Saints be missing Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz; they’ll also be without Demario Davis, which is a huge loss for the middle of the defense. Despite these injuries, and as well as the fact that the Falcons’ three opponents currently have an 8-1 record, the Saints are getting all the public money. This is also a revenge game from last year where the Saints called an audible and scored on the final snap. The Falcons look like a solid play.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the Falcons -2.5 -113 for three units. It was just announced that Chris Olave is a game-time decision. If he’s ruled out, we won’t see this number. If he plays, I’d still like Atlanta. You can get -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked this in. Unfortunately, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara will play despite being iffy coming into the game, but they may not be 100 percent. The sharps haven’t touched this one. The best line is Falcons -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -1.5.

Computer Model: Saints -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Tons of money on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 76% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Derek Carr is 7-14 ATS as a road favorite. ???

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 2-5 ATS through two weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -5

Raiders -5.5

Bengals -7.5

Bills -5

The public got slaughtered again. They are now 3-8 ATS. Between losing these bets and taking out loans to buy groceries, the common man isn’t doing so well these days.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -10

Eagles -2

Browns +1

Lions -4

Steelers -2

We’ll see if the public continues to lose money this week.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers won some ugly football games in the first two weeks of the season, but it wasn’t so bad this past week. Justin Fields focused on just playing mistake-free football versus the Falcons and Broncos, but he was more daring against the Chargers. He had an unfortunate interception on a deflection, but he delivered a downfield strike touchdown to Calvin Austin and scrambled for chunks of yardage to help his team improve to 3-0.

Fields and Najee Harris will have plenty of success running in this game. The Colts have a dreadful run defense, thanks to numerous injuries in the front seven. DeForest Buckner’s absence is most painful, as there’s a huge void in the interior of the Indianapolis defensive line. It’s not a good week to be missing someone like Buckner.

The Colts also have problems with their secondary. They’re down their No. 1 cornerback and already had issues covering on the outside. This has to be music to George Pickens’ ears, as Pickens missed out on a huge game two weeks ago because of penalties.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I read a perfect tweet about Anthony Richardson following the Bears game. I don’t know who said it, but it went something like, “Richardson makes throws that 99 percent of quarterbacks can’t make, but he attempts passes that 99 percent of quarterbacks shouldn’t throw.” Something like that, but you get it. Richardson is a tremendous talent who delivers unbelievable passes, but he also makes way too many gaffes right now. Granted, he doesn’t have much starting experience, but his decision-making, touch, and accuracy consistency are horrendous.

This is not a good matchup for Richardson. He’s well protected by his offensive line, but he’ll be squaring off against Mike Tomlin, a defensive mastermind. Tomlin will throw stuff at Richardson that will confuse the young quarterback. This will undoubtedly create some turnovers, or perhaps cause Richardson to make some spectacular throws. It’s one or the other with him.

The Steelers will also take the running game away from Richardson. Despite Richardson’s blunders last week, Indianapolis was able to prevail because of Jonathan Taylor’s brilliant running. Taylor won’t have as many holes to burst through this week because the Steelers are No. 1 against the run.

RECAP: For the third consecutive week, I’ll mention the following: The general rule with Tomlin is that you want to back him as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. Tomlin has a winning spread record if he’s favored by a field goal or less, which is the case in this matchup.

Tomlin seems to have a favorable matchup against the Colts. Richardson has all the potential in the world, but he’s clueless in many areas. He can easily be confused, and Tomlin knows this. Tomlin should be able to throw some looks at Richardson that he’s never seen, which could lead to some turnovers. Richardson also won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack as much as he did last week because the Steelers are stout against the run.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense is in shambles, thanks to the numerous injuries it has on that side of the ball. The Steelers should once again be able to muster enough offense to prevail in an ugly game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s surprising to me that there isn’t much public money on the Steelers. There’s a fair amount, but I thought we could see 80 percent with the line below -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are a disaster right now. They could be without two offensive linemen against Pittsburgh’s pass rush, as Ryan Kelly was DNP in practice Thursday and Friday, while Braden Smith was also DNP on Friday. Elsewhere, the Colts will be without DeForest Buckner, Kenny Moore, and Kwity Paye. Indianapolis has so many injuries, so Pittsburgh looks appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Colts will have Braden Smith, but Ryan Kelly is sidelined. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and neither have I. If you like the Steelers, you can get a -2 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -1.

Computer Model: Steelers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I love getting messages like this during the game, and yet no apologies about it after the fact when I’m proven correct.

Here’s another type of message:

To Nike Golf and the 10 people who liked his nonsensical post, how old do you guys think I am? I’m not THAT old!

Here’s an existential question:

The teeth problems are true. I once had 19 cavities during a trip to the dentist. Thanks to all my issues and constant visits, my dentist was able to retire early. I’m not exaggerating.

Here’s someone berating our mock drafts:

Also true. Charlie was first in accuracy for like the fourth time in 10 years. If that is “dog s**t,” then everything must be even worse than dog s**t for Zach.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence just keeps getting worse and worse. Lawrence had a great first year under Doug Pederson, leading his team to the second round of the playoffs following a brilliant comeback versus the Chargers. However, Lawrence has regressed in each of his past two seasons. He looked completely lost versus Buffalo.

There are many things to blame, including Pederson. The offensive line is also a disaster. This presents a great problem against the Texans, who rush the passer extremely well. They already have 13 sacks on the year, which is a very high number for just three games. They’ll pressure Lawrence heavily and force him into more mistakes.

It should at least be noted that the Texans have some liabilities in the secondary that can be exploited on the rare occasions in which Lawrence has time to throw. The Texans were just torched by Sam Darnold, after all. They also struggle against the run, so perhaps Jacksonville will be able to establish Travis Etienne and allow Lawrence to operate in favorable situations.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Lawrence and the offensive line are just part of the reason why the Jaguars are 0-3 right now. The defense has also been horrendous. The secondary, which famously allowing Jake Browning to look like Joe Montana a year ago, has not been fixed. This is why Khalil Shakir resembled Jerry Rice on Monday night.

C.J. Stroud had a great 2024 debut against the Colts, but hasn’t followed up with anything similar since. That trend could snap this week, as Stroud has a very favorable matchup. The Jaguars couldn’t even cover Shakir and the other Bills receivers, so how will they deal with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell?

The Jaguars can at least say they can handle the run well, but given how unfavorable the passing conditions are for them, it won’t matter very much. Not only can Jacksonville not cover any receivers, but it also can’t get after the quarterback. Its pass rush has been a huge disappointment. I mentioned that the Texans have 13 sacks. Jacksonville only has four.

RECAP: Upon getting blown out by the Vikings, Stroud had the following to say to the media: “It’s time to go back to work.”

I loved hearing this, as betting on good quarterbacks following a loss (especially a blowout) is one of my favorite angles. It’s a small sample size, but Stroud is 5-2 against the spread following a defeat thus far in his career. All of the good quarterbacks have a great records like this.

Regardless, the Texans are a much better team than the Jaguars. Jacksonville has severe blocking issues that Houston can easily exploit. The Jaguars also struggle to cover receivers, which will be very problematic against all of Houston’s wideouts.

I love the Texans this week and plan on betting them heavily. My only hangup is that the Jaguars are coming off a blowout loss, which tends to benefit teams (55% cover rate for defeats of 30+), but Houston was also blown out, so this shouldn’t be an issue.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tank Dell missed Wednesday’s practice, but I don’t think that’s something to worry about. The Texans should have their way with Jacksonville.

SATURDAY NOTES: It was believed that the Jaguars could miss their top two linebackers. The good news is that Devin Lloyd will play. The bad news is that Foye Oluokun is out. The only real argument you can make here is that the Jaguars will be looking to bounce back off a blowout loss, but the Texans are coming off the same result.

PLAYER PROP: I like C.J. Stroud over passing yards. Stroud has yet to eclipse 260 passing yards yet, so betting the over 258 may seem problematic. However, in three games, he’s battled defenses ranked 16th, fourth, and third in EPA. The Jaguars are 28th. Jacksonville also plays a ton of man, which Stroud ordinarily devours. The best number is over 264.5 -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguards are in rough shape. They’re down their top two linebackers, as Devin Lloyd has been ruled out. The sharps are still on Jacksonville though, but keep in mind that the sharps loved them versus the Bills on Monday night as well. The best line is -5.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

Both teams are coming off blowout losses.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 62% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 21 of the last 27 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This is the battle of the Head Coach of the Year candidates through three weeks of the season. Both have coached up quarterbacks given up for a dead to a combined 5-0 record. What Matt LaFleur has done is more impressive because Sam Darnold was at least a top-three draft choice. Malik Willis was a third-round pick the Titans thoughtlessly discarded, yet he looked like the second coming of Michael Vick last week.

It remains to be seen if “No Cookie” Jordan Love will be ready to play this game, but given Willis’ success, LaFleur could opt to roll with the backup for one more game. If so, we may see Willis’ worst performance. Backup quarterbacks typically struggle against elite defenses, and Minnesota qualifies as such. The Vikings are third in defensive EPA after putting the clamps on C.J. Stroud. Brian Flores is a brilliant defensive coordinator who will be able to confuse Willis.

The Packers won’t be able to establish the run well enough to save Willis. The Vikings are stout against ground attacks, ranking sixth in that category.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: While Willis has been Vick 2.0 through two games, Sam Darnold has resembled Peyton Manning. I’ve seen some “Darnold for MVP” campaigns already popping up, though if I were to give that award to a Viking, it would be Justin Jefferson.

Speaking of Jefferson, he has a favorable matchup in this game. That wouldn’t have been the case a few years ago when Jaire Alexander was a shutdown cornerback, but Alexander has regressed due to multiple injuries recently. The Packers won’t be able to disrupt the Darnold-to-Jefferson connection because Darnold is protected by one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL.

I don’t, however, expect much from Minnesota’s rushing attack. I know this is a revenge game for Aaron Jones, but the Packers are fifth versus the rush after putting the clamps on Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard.

RECAP: It’s unclear if Love will play yet, but I’m going to like the Vikings either way. If Love suits up, he may not be 100 percent. I like fading banged-up quarterbacks, so this would be a nice opportunity to do that. If Love is out again, we’ll be able to fade Willis against Flores.

I know the Packers are 2-0 with Willis, but they’ve beaten a banged-up Colts team and the inept Titans. The Vikings are a different story. They’re third in defensive EPA, so that greatly favors them over a backup quarterback. Plus, Flores’ schemes will befuddle Willis.

We’ll see if Love plays or not. I’d prefer Willis, but I’ll be on the Vikings regardless. The unit count is what is yet to be determined.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of money coming in on the Vikings, which makes them less appealing as a public dog. Also, Garrett Bradbury missed Wednesday’s practice, so that’s something to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: We don’t have any clarity on Jordan Love yet. Love was limited every day in practice, but that’s what happened last week. Some news here is that Jaire Alexander could be out after being downgraded from limited to DNP on Friday. My final decision will come once we know Love’s status Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Love will play, but at what capacity? I like the Vikings more with Love in because he may not be 100 percent. Jaire Alexander is out as well, but he’s kind of washed up. The sharps aren’t on this one. If you bet the Vikings, please bet the +3, which you can get for -120 vig at Bookmaker and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.

Computer Model: None.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Vikings have become a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 81% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Teams have split the past 4 years.

Packers are 65-40 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 51-35 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Patchy fog, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I’d say it’s hard to believe that an offense comprised of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins is 0-3, but we’ve seen Cincinnati begin slowly so often with this trio. The Bengals fell to 0-2 after a loss to Cooper Rush, yet went on to the AFC Championship later that season.

Burrow and company will be able to recover easily in this matchup. The Panthers may have the worst defense in the NFL. They’re incapable of generating consistent pressure on the quarterback because of the absences/departures of Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and D.J. Wonnum. Burrow often feels heat in the pocket, but that won’t be the case in this game. He’ll have all the time in the world to find his talented receivers.

If/when the Bengals establish a big lead, they’ll be able to ice the game with their rushing attack. The Panthers are horrible versus the run. Perhaps Cincinnati will deploy Chase Brown more often, as Brown looked far superior compared to the sluggish Zack Moss on Monday night.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s good to know that I’m not crazy. I expected the Panthers to be much better offensively this year, thanks to the upgrades it made to the offensive line, receiving corps, and coaching staff. This offense was miserable through two weeks, but came to life when Andy Dalton replaced the anemic Bryce Young.

Dalton was great in his 2024 debut, but that was against an injury-ravaged Raiders defense that looked unfocused following a comeback victory at Baltimore. Then again, the Bengals just allowed Jayden Daniels to set the all-time rookie completion record for a single game, so perhaps the magic will continue for Dalton.

The one positive I can mention concerning Cincinnati’s defense is that the unit has improved versus the run lately. Rhamondre Stevenson gashed the Bengals in Week 1, but Cincinnati has gotten better against ground attacks each week. The Bengals put the clamps on Brian Robinson Jr., who had just enjoyed a great outing versus the Giants, so they should be able to keep Chuba Hubbard in check.

RECAP: As mentioned in the Jaguars-Texans pick capsule, I love betting on good quarterbacks coming off losses as long as they’re not huge favorites. Burrow is 15-7 against the spread following a defeat, so Cincinnati looks great in this game where they’ll have their backs against the wall at 0-3.

This really is a must win for the Bengals, so they’ll be going all out to beat the Panthers. Despite this, we’re getting some value with them. Cincinnati was -7 on the advance line, yet is now just -4.5. It’s remarkable that we’re getting 2.5 points of value, including two key numbers, just because the Raiders were caught napping against Dalton and the Bengals lost due to the brilliance of Daniels.

I love the Bengals this week. They’re my favorite play, as we’re getting them on a diminished point spread as they attempt to save their season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Panthers. I’m not seeing any reason why they would jump on Carolina.

SATURDAY NOTES: I already loved the Bengals. I love them even more now that we have some injury woes for Carolina. Diontae Johnson missed Thursday’s practice and was limited Friday. Robert Hunt was downgraded from full to limited on Friday. Damien Lewis is out. If Hunt and Lewis will both be sidelined, the Panthers will have the same interior offensive line issues they possessed in 2023.

PLAYER PROP: I like Ja’Marr Chase over receiving yards. This number seems low, given the matchup. The Panthers have been horrendous defensively this year. They’ve pressured the quarterback just seven times through three games, and Jaycee Horn has struggled as a result. Chase is fully in shape now, and I expect him and Joe Burrow to play at their best at 0-3. The best number is over 71.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Diontae Johnson and Robert Hunt will play, but Damien Lewis is ruled out. I love the Bengals today to bounce back, and there’s a bit of sharp money on them as well. The best line is -4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals are in a must-win situation.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.

Computer Model: Bengals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Good money on the Bengals, some of it being sharp.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 75% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 37-18 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 15-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 79 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams looked like they would drop to 0-3 when they were trailing the 49ers by double digits, but Matthew Stafford exploded with a brilliant second half. He torched the 49ers while successfully deploying Kyren Williams, who scored three touchdowns. Though the Rams were missing multiple interior offensive linemen, it helped that they had both tackles on the field for the first time all year.

With Williams getting better blocking as a result of Alaric Jackson’s return, you have to like his chances of being productive in this game. The Bears just showed a major weakness to the run last week, as Jonathan Taylor ripped through their defense with ease. Tony Pollard did similar things in Week 1.

Williams thriving will make things much easier for Stafford. Cooper Kupp won’t be available, so Stafford needs all the help he can get. The Bears generate a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, so Stafford will need to lean on Williams with two interior blockers still sidelined.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams had a horrendous NFL debut in what should’ve been a loss to the Titans. He has gotten better in each game since, but has interestingly lost both succeeding games.

Williams will have a chance to have his best performance yet. The Rams secondary is a complete mess because of multiple injuries. Los Angeles just had major problems stopping Jauan Jennings, so D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze will be able to thrive in this matchup.

The one concern I have with the Bears in this contest is their offensive line. The unit can’t run block at all, and it’s not like D’Andre Swift is doing anything to compensate for that. The Rams can also generate a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, so Williams could be forced into some turnovers again.

RECAP: It should come as no surprise that the public is on the underdog in this matchup. Everyone just saw the Rams mount a great comeback versus the 49ers, after all. However, the Rams were outgained by about 130 yards and more than one yard per play. They won because Trent Williams got banged up. Had that not happened, the Rams would be 0-3 right now, and no one would have any interest in them at +2.5.

Despite the public interest in the Rams, the line might be short against the Bears. According to EPA, Chicago should be -3.5, and the advance spread was -4. The Bears have not looked good this year, but this is a very easy matchup for their offense, as the Rams’ miserable defense has been gashed by everyone this year.

I’m going to take the value and pick Chicago, though I don’t have much of an interest in betting on this team as a favorite. If I were betting Chicago, I would also worry about the colossal coaching mismatch with Sean McVay going against Matt Eberflus.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Cooper Kupp in practice, but that was expected. The sharps are on the Bears, which is not very surprising.

PLAYER PROP: I love D’Andre Swift under rushing yards. I wanted to lock this in before the number disappears because it’s so absurd. The total is 37.5 even though Swift has yet to top 30 rushing yards in a single game this year. Even better, it’s been reported that the Bears want to give Roschon Johnson more touches this week. The best number is under 37.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Keenan Allen may return for Chicago, but he doesn’t move the needle for me at this stage of his career. Besides, his return won’t fix Chicago’s flaws. I’m still very neutral on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still don’t know what to do with this game, but if you want to tail the sharps, they’re on the Bears. The best Chicago line is -3 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -4.

Computer Model: Bears -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The Rams are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 79% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets got off to a shaky start with a blowout loss in San Francisco, but have improved ever since. The Jets had a strong offensive showing Thursday night, as Aaron Rodgers looked like he was in MVP form once again. The only bad thing you could say about that performance was that he and Garrett Wilson didn’t have the best chemistry, but that will surely change.

Despite the good vibes, the Jets could regress in this matchup. The Broncos have what it takes to eliminate, or at least limit the Jets’ top two threats. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. He just shut down Mike Evans, and he’ll be able to do the same with Wilson. Thus, it’s a good thing that Rodgers has a good connection with Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin, and Mike Williams.

The Broncos are also solid against the run. This obviously affects Breece Hall. Then again, Hall is capable of going the distance any time he touches the ball, both as a runner and a receiver. He’s also gotten the best of the Broncos in two career matchups against them.

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix looked lost in his first two games, but finally came to life against the Buccaneers. He torched Tampa Bay’s secondary and ran circles around them while scrambling en route to a blowout victory.

Nix faces a much tougher test this week than a banged-up Tampa Bay defense. The Jets have great talent in their secondary, so it’ll be difficult for his receivers to get open. The Jets also produce a ton of pressure on the quarterback, so Nix will consider himself fortunate that he’s protected well. Mike McGlinchey being injured is not ideal, but Alex Palczewski handled himself well as a replacement.

The Jets have a weakness defensively, and that would be their inability to stop the run. Javonte Williams has been a disappointment, but perhaps the Broncos will turn to Tyler Badie, who looked impressive last week, albeit in garbage time.

RECAP: We had a big bet on the Broncos last week. We’re going back to the well. Denver took advantage of a Tampa Bay team that was flat off a revenge game against the Lions, and it will have a similar situation in this game.

I’ll be shocked if the Jets even show up to play against Denver. Not only are they coming off a big win on “national TV” last Thursday when they beat the Patriots; they have to travel to London to take on the undefeated Vikings following this game. There’s a long history of big favorites struggling going into London (favorites of -4 or more are 12-18 ATS), and the Jets should be the latest team to suffer a letdown.

Besides, the Broncos have the personnel to slow down the Jets offense. They stop the run well and can limit No. 1 receivers. The Jets funnel their offense through two players, and Denver can restrict that sort of attack.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new to add here. Both teams are fairly healthy with there being only three players on the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only significant non-IR player to miss this game will be C.J. Mosley. Again, there’s nothing new to add here, as I still like the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no injury news of note, and the sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +8 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Jets, coming off a divisional win, have this game, and then travel overseas.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -8.

Computer Model: Jets -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight action on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 62% (126,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-88 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Jets -8.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Video of the Week: I watched a lot of Mario hacks over the summer – mainly because my daughter is so into them – but this one was one of my two favorites:

It’s the only Mario hack, to my knowledge, that features Shel Silverstein poetry.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We have to begin on this side of the ball because there are so many injuries. A.J. Brown has been sidelined for the past two games and could miss another. DeVonta Smith just suffered a concussion. Lane Johnson got hurt last week. For the Buccaneers, Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield were out last week.

The injury report will obviously be instrumental in handicapping this game. Under normal circumstances, I’d like Jalen Hurts’ chances of achieving revenge for the playoff loss. The Buccaneers have poor cornerbacks, so Brown and Smith would have a field day against them. Hurts has a great offensive line in front of him, and Tampa struggles to get to the quarterback. The Buccaneers have just two sacks on the year!

Everything will be different if Hurts is down all three star players. Hurts has not played his best football through three weeks, and it’s not like he’ll be able to lean on Saquon Barkley again if Vea returns from injury. The Buccaneers are ordinarily stout against the run, and Vea was expecting to miss only one game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of being stout against the run, the Eagles put the clamps on Alvin Kamara despite everyone wondering how they would do so heading into the game. The Buccaneers don’t have much of a rushing attack, though Bucky Irving is far better than Rachaad White as a pure runner. Perhaps he’ll provide a spark for this dead ground attack, but I’m not expecting much because of the poor interior blocking.

The Buccaneers, however, have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the two receivers will present a major problem for Philadelphia’s secondary. Quinyon Mitchell has gotten off to a good start in his career, but Darius Slay hasn’t been as good as he’s been in the past. Evans and Godwin should be able to win their matchups. This is especially true for Godwin, as Philadelphia is horrendous versus slot receivers.

The Eagles will need to counter this with a pass rush on Baker Mayfield, but they haven’t produced much pressure through three weeks. Aside from Jalen Carter and Brandon Graham on limited snaps, they’re not getting after the quarterback consistently.

RECAP: It’s difficult to make a firm pick on this game right now because both teams have numerous injuries. The Eagles could be without Brown, Smith, and Johnson. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are awaiting the status of Vea, Winfield, and Luke Goedeke.

I’m leaning toward the Buccaneers right now. It seems like they have the better chance of being healthier. I also like that they’re coming off a blowout loss. They were completely unfocused against Denver because they had just achieved revenge for their playoff loss at Detroit, so Week 3 was an obvious flat spot for them. Given that they were humiliated, they should play much better this week. The Eagles, conversely, haven’t performed up to their ability yet despite their 2-1 record.

Injury updates will be key here. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Lane Johnson in Wednesday’s practice. We’ll see if one returns by the end of the week. For the Buccaneers, Antoine Winfield Jr. was sidelined again, but Vita Vea had a limited practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to have concrete news on the Eagles at this point, but we don’t. DeVonta Smith is out, but A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson are both questionable after being limited on Friday. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, won’t have Antoine Winfield again, but Vita Vea is questionable after being limited all week. Stay tuned for a major update Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson are out. The Buccaneers will have Vita Vea and Bucky Irving. This is not great for the Eagles, obviously. The sharps have a lean on Tampa, and I’m going to bet a unit on them. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 135-93 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Jalen Hurts is 7-14 ATS as a road favorite.

Buccaneers are 41-72 ATS at home in the previous 112 instances.

Buccaneers are 12-31 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Scattered thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.