NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2023 – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I didn’t have a chance to look for new hate mail because I had a serious stomach bug on Monday, which is usually when I fish for such things. It wasn’t pretty, as I puked three times. I’m a bit better now, but still not 100 percent. Nevertheless, I have some hate mail from earlier in the season that I forgot to post:

Sadly, ths CM idiot likely has no idea what I’m talking about, as his IQ is way too low to understand grammar.

Here’s another series of replies from some other people:

That should have been the end of it, but two people who don’t understand sarcasm continued to reply:

I guess when you have a severe case of TDS, all forms of sarcasm are lost on you.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers made it to the playoffs, so I suppose none of this matters, but they wouldn’t have had to sweat out a postseason berth had Mike Tomlin made the switch to Mason Rudolph earlier. Rudolph isn’t a great quarterback by any stretch of the imagination, but there’s little doubt that he’s been a massive upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky, who was a turnover machine. Rudolph has done a much better job of taking care of the ball.

It should be noted, however, that Rudolph hasn’t had the greatest challenge yet. He’s battled the Bengals, Seahawks, and Ravens. Discounting the Ravens, who were playing their backups, Rudolph has gone against defenses ranked 28th (Bengals) and 31st (Seahawks) in EPA. The Bills are fifth. This goes back to some research I conducted on backup quarterbacks, which said they were usually solid plays unless they were battling top-12 defenses. Buffalo certainly qualifies as such.

I really worry about Rudolph’s protection in particular. Everyone knows that the Steelers can’t block, and Buffalo is top 10 in pressure rate. Perhaps Pittsburgh can establish the run, but that won’t be possible if the Bills jump out to a big lead.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Will the Bills be able to establish a quick advantage? It’ll certainly be possible with T.J. Watt being sidelined. Watt has already been ruled out, which is a huge blow for Pittsburgh’s chances. I’ve posted these numbers repeatedly, so forgive me if you’ve seen them one too many times. Last year, the Steelers with Watt were 8-2 and sixth against the pass. Without Watt, they were 1-6 and 30th against the pass.

Watt’s absence will make it extremely easy for Josh Allen to throw into a Pittsburgh secondary that has been dealing with injuries. Allen finally got back on track with Stefon Diggs last week – aside from the deep miss in the first half – so Diggs should be able to have a big performance. No. 1 receivers have given Pittsburgh fits this year, after all.

The Steelers, at the very least, should be able to contain James Cook. They’ve done well defending pass-catching running backs, ranking just outside the top 10 in that regard. However, this one matchup edge won’t be enough to overcome everything else.

RECAP: I loved the Steelers heading into the year because of those aforementioned Watt numbers. I thought we had a good edge with Watt potentially playing the entire season. We were rewarded with a correct over season win total wager.

Now, the Steelers will be missing Watt, which is a huge blow to their defense. Meanwhile, Rudolph is a backup going against a top-level defense. This can only end poorly, especially with Rudolph being incapable of leaning on his defense as a result of Watt’s absence. Also, note that this is Rudolph’s first playoff start. Road underdogs have been OK in such situations, but consider the quality of quarterback. Rudolph is on par with Todd Collins, Vince Young and Matt Moore, and all three failed to cover.

I love the Bills in this spot. It sucks to be going up against Mike Tomlin and his terrific record as an underdog, but Tomlin is just 2-3 against the spread as an underdog in the playoffs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I looked at the weather for this game back on Monday, and it didn’t seem that bad. Now, they’re calling for snow and 25-mph winds. Weather like this can be a great equalizer, so I’m going to cut the unit count from five to three.

SATURDAY NOTES: Gabe Davis has been ruled out, but that’s not my main concern. The winds are going to be north of 20 mph in all likelihood. This is why the sharps have come in on the Steelers. Harsh winds can be a great neutralizer, so I may go down to two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I dropped this from five to three units because of the weather, but it seems like the wind should be fine for Monday afternoon. If that’s the case, I’ll be back to five units.

PLAYER PROPS: Take a look at how No. 1 receivers have done against the Steelers recently:

DK Metcalf: 5-106

Tee Higgins: 5-140 TD (Ja’Marr Chase out)

Michael Pittman: 4-78 (injured 2nd quarter)

Ja’Marr Chase: 4-81

All of these players eclipsed Stefon Diggs’ receiving prop of 64.5. I know Diggs had a poor finish to the second half of his season, but he’s still talented enough to have a big game in a plus matchup like this. The best prop for Diggs is over 64.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Aside from it being 17 degrees, the weather is perfect in Orchard Park, with winds below 10 mph. With that in mind, I’m going to be back on the Bills for five units. This is just too lopsided of a matchup for the T.J. Watt-less Steelers. The sharps, however, have not taken a side ever since the game moved to Monday. The best line is -10 -104 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Slight edge on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 62% (493,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Betting Packer games have been maddening this year. It seems as though every time I bet on them, “No Cookie” Jordan Love is a complete disaster. Every time I’ve faded Love, he’s played like Joe Montana and Dan Marino rolled into one. I almost wanted to make a spite pick on the Packers so that Love is eliminated as quickly as possible so I don’t have to lose any more money in his games.

Something to consider, however, is that Aaron Jones is at full strength. This hasn’t been a frequent thing this year. Jones started off strong in Week 1, but got hurt at the end of that game. He wasn’t healthy until a game against the Rams in the middle of the season, but got injured again after that. Jones finally returned to full strength in Week 16. With Jones at 100 percent, the Packers are 5-0 this year, averaging 28.2 points per game. Jones has a plus matchup in this contest, as Dallas has been weak to the run when the opposing team hasn’t fallen way behind.

With Jones running well, Love will be set up in favorable passing downs. Love’s receiving corps is very young, but has developed well throughout the season. Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton have all performed well in the second half of the year in particular, while Christian Watson may be due back this week. This is huge for this matchup, as Dallas has been weak to outside receivers.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While it seems as though the Packers will be able to exploit all of Dallas’ defensive liabilities in this matchup, the same can’t be said of the Cowboys. Green Bay has two defensive weaknesses: the run defense and the production allowed to slot receivers.

The run defense will not be exploited because the Cowboys simply haven’t established a consistent rushing attack against anyone this season. They couldn’t even run all that well versus the Panthers, who had one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL. Tony Pollard simply hasn’t been 100 percent since recovering from his broken leg.

Conversely, the Cowboys will be able to thrive when targeting the Packers’ slot cornerback. That’s because CeeDee Lamb plays in the slot. Lamb is due for a monster game, so the Cowboys should be able to score ample points. Putting the game away with the lead, however, will be a different story, because Pollard won’t be able to give Dallas much.

RECAP: Dallas’ inability to run well automatically opens a back-door possibility for the Packers. Plus, Love has been playing well enough for that to be a possibility. If the Cowboys are up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I certainly wouldn’t feel safe with a -7.5 ticket.

A back door may not even be necessary, however. Again, the Packers have been so much better with a healthy Jones, who figures to rip through Dallas’ defense. Watson, if available, will give Green Bay’s offense some extra juice.

I love the Packers. I’m ready to be disappointed by Love, but I think they’ll cover this high spread. I personally made this line -3, while EPA has it at -2.5. There’s just too much value to pass up. Oh, and if you’re worried about Dallas’ immaculate home track record, allow me to point out the game against the Seahawks, where Geno Smith nearly defeated Dallas in a shootout. I’d also like to point out the Detroit contest, with the Lions winning if the official didn’t screw up the offensive line eligibility.

The Cowboys steamrolled through a very easy home schedule this year against the following opponents: Jets, Patriots, Rams (missing several players & Matthew Stafford got hurt), Giants, Redskins, Seahawks, Eagles and Lions. The only other team that may stick out is the Eagles. That seemed like a great win at the time, but Philadelphia has since lost to the Drew Lock-led Seahawks, Cardinals, and Giants. That victory is not nearly as impressive now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s more sharp action on the Packers than any other team this week, which isn’t a surprise at all.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not looking good for Jaire Alexander, while the Cowboys will be getting back all of their injured offensive linemen. I still like the Packers, but I won’t be moving to five units as I had been considering. Once again, the sharps are on Green Bay.

PLAYER PROPS: The Cowboys are weak to outside receivers, but Christian Watson’s status makes betting that difficult. Instead, I’m just going with the CeeDee Lamb over. Aside from the Redskins, no team has surrendered more production to the slot than the Packers. CeeDee Lamb’s receiving prop is high, but it’s high for a reason. The best number is over 98.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the Packers at +7 because I don’t want to see the line drop to +6.5. The best line is +7 -105 at Bovada, followed by +7 -107 at Bookmaker, and then +7 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I locked this in late last night, but it was probably unnecessary because the line hasn’t moved yet. We’re still waiting on Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander are both active, though there’s no indication that they’ll be 100 percent. Regardless, the sharps were on the Packers at +7.5, but not so much at +7. The line hasn’t moved much, with the best number being +7 -104 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: .

Computer Model: Cowboys -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (534,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (534,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Twitter Idiots.s

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have been on an absolute tear to end the season. Since their bye, they’re 7-1, and they’ve scored 28.2 points per game. Their only loss was to the Ravens, which was decided on a punt return touchdown in overtime. They beat everyone’s darling Browns, 36-19. They were also way up on the Saints, 27-7, before garbage time, and we saw how good New Orleans was to close out the year.

The reason for the Rams’ second-half surge has been the health of their offensive players. Matthew Stafford was dealing with a finger injury for a while, but he recovered by Week 12. Kyren Williams was out for several games and then returned Week 12. Cooper Kupp was also hurt for a while. Everyone is healthy now, and the results have been tremendous.

The Rams have a great chance to continue their offensive tirade against the Lions. Detroit will be better defensively with Alim McNeill and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson returning from injury, but the Lions are very weak to outside receivers and will have a tough time dealing with Puka Nacua and the emerging Demarcus Robinson. The Lions are also not great versus opposing running backs as receivers out of the backfield, so Williams will be difficult to contain.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I wrote that Brandon Staley should have been fired after he unncessarily put his players at risk in a meaningless Week 18 game last year. Mike Williams suffered an injury, so the Chargers didn’t have all their offensive pieces when they were blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars.

I’ll say the same thing about Dan Campbell. I was disappointed to see Campbell pull a Staley because I’ve liked Campbell’s coaching otherwise. Playing his starters was very foolish because the Cowboys were so unlikely to lose against a miserable Redskins team sitting some of its key veterans. Campbell paid the price, as sam LaPorta went down with an injury. There’s an outside chance LaPorta will play, but it seems very unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent even if he is able to suit up. This is crushing for Detroit because the Rams’ sole defensive weakness is against tight ends.

The Rams have the sixth-ranked EPA defense, and they’ve been very stout against the run. This bodes well for them in this matchup, as the Lions want to pound the rock with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

RECAP: This pains me because I loved the Lions both this and last year, and I have a two-unit wager at 30/1 for them to win the Super Bowl. However, their defense has taken too many hits with injuries this season. I don’t think they can stop any high-powered offenses in the playoffs, including the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams have been on a tear since their bye. It doesn’t seem like anyone has recognized that, yet they’re No. 1 in net EPA. They’re the only team in the top six of both offense and defense EPA.

Given the metrics, the spread is wrong. I made the Rams -1, while EPA has this at pick ’em. Any way you slice it, we’re getting great value at +3, and there’s a chance we’ll see +3.5 at some point.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Public and sharp money is coming on the Rams. Who, exactly, is betting the Lions?

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams have some injury question marks to Joe Noteboom, Kevin Dotson, and Bobby Brown that are worth monitoring. Meanwhile, Sam LaPorta was full in practice after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday, so he may be able to play after all. That would certainly hurt the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: The Lions are weaker to outside receivers than slot receivers, so I’m looking at Puka Nacua’s receiving props. The best number for that is over 76.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The vig is moving in Detroit’s favor, likely because Sam LaPorta may be available. Keep in mind that he may not be 100 percent. Still, I’m hoping we get a +3.5 prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sam LaPorta will play, which is a bummer. There’s a chance that LaPorta is limited though, so I’m not going to drop my unit count. As for the sharps, they haven’t touched either side. The best line is +3 -103 at Bookmaker.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: Sam LaPorta is active, so I’m going to have a bit of a hedge with him with the over 3.5 receptions. I’m also putting in Puka Nacua over 78.5 receiving yards, Demarcus Robinson over 45.5 receiving yards, and Kyren Williams anytime touchdown. I love the outside receivers against Detroit’s poor secondary, while Williams has been a touchdown machine. This parlay pays +1118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

Tons of money coming in on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (154,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Tons of money coming in on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (154,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Gay, where tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team in NFL history, will take on the Tampa Gay Butt Fu**aneers. Guys, if you couldn’t tell, I’m hyped up for this game. Mother won’t let me have soda because she says soda is the Devil, but I snuck a few cans of Pepsi into my backpack, and I had them, and wow, I’m ready to rock and roll, and I’m also ready to murder everyone on the Butt Fu**aneer roster if they beat my Philadelphia Eagles, but we know that won’t happen because my Philadelphia Eagles are the best!

Emmitt: Thanks, Cid. I feel the same way against my rivalnesslies. Back when I was the receiver on the Dallas Cowboy, a guy name Troy Hamstone try to take my job. So, I fill his water cup with nothing but soda so maybe he gonna get drunk and get runned over by a DUI. This never happen, but he got real fat instead.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m surprised that Troy Hamstone didn’t get drunk. Mother says that soda is a gateway drug to cocaine, meth, and even porn. All three are also the Devil.

Tollefson: Reilly, your mom gives some killer pop quizzes in our home school class, but she’s definitely wrong about this. I watch porn five or six times every day, and there’s nothing wrong with me. I’m the type of guy any dad would like dating his daughter. Just think about all the great conversations I can have with my father-in-law about kidnapping women, forcing them to cook and clean naked, and conning old people out of lots of money.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re a regular old dreamboat. Speaking of dreamboats, that’s what Mother described me as at the hair salon, and the other ladies laughed at her. Mother then bet them that I can date a singer hotter than Taylor Swift, so we’re going to be interviewing another singer this week. I asked the producers to step it up a notch because we’re running out of time, so let me present the voice behind the Sunday Night Football song, Carrie Underwear!

Carrie Underwood: Hey guys, thanks for having me, this is so exciting!

Reilly: Ah- wait, what? You’re excited? To talk to me?

Carrie Underwood: Oh my God, yes, thanks for having me, this is so much fun!

Reilly: I, hmm, this is going to be harder than expected to force you to be my girlfriend. Hold on, talk to Senator President John Fetterman while I freshen my breath.

John Fetterman: Cold breath on a snowy day! Lick the pole and the Skittles come to play. Hamster in my pants. Hamster not in my pants. Where did the hamster in my pants go? Hamster on my toothbrush, haha!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! I- wait a second, we’re getting buzzed by Charissa Thompson, who has this sideline report for us. Charissa?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Kevin. I’m reporting that there is a rupture in the space-time continuum at the 30-yard line, and it’s causing some odd results. In one reality, the Buccaneers beat the Eagles 716 to zero. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Don’t listen to Charissa Thompson, she has no idea what she’s talking about! I don’t even know why we cut away to her when she just makes stuff up all the time.

Carrie Underwood: Makes stuff up all the time, yeah!

Reilly: Guys, I think I may have found my dream woman. What do you think I should do next, President Biden? Should I go in for a kiss?

Joe Biden: Now look here, you plain toast-drinking vampiric eyeball, no one knows more about making the first move than me. When I grew up on a slave plantation in the south and I was forced to pick cotton and chocolate, I learned a thing or two from my brothers and sisters. I learned that you can never go wrong if you go in for a sniff into her hair and suck the soul out of her. Now, here’s the deal: You just have to make sure she’s of ripe age. We’re talking six, seven months now. As the old saying goes, if she’s old enough to pee, she’s good enough for me heh heh heh heh. Huh, who said that? Want to challenge me to a pushup contest, fat? When I grew up on the Mars colony, I was doing 719 pushups per day.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he grew up on the Mars colony and did lots of pushups, which is totally untrue and something that a total disgrace and a total disaster would say, and Sleepy Joe is a total disgrace, believe me, I know a lot about total disgraces, more than anyone could ever know, and Sleepy Joe can’t even do one pushup, let alone 719, no one can do that many, trust me, they have a record leaderboard on the Mars colony, and the guy in charge – great guy, that guy in charge – said that these records are updated daily, no one has ever seen anything like it, and I was close to being at the top of the record, but there were better people doing pushups, and I tried, believe it, I tried really hard, and I almost got to the top, but these guys – they were great guys, by the way, and they were saying how great Trump is – these guys were the best of the best, and Sleepy Joe is the worst of the worst.

Wolfley: DONALD, MY FRIEND, AN NFL PUNTER WITH TWIZZLERS FOR ARMS, SET THE RECORD AT 511.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Carrie Underwear, I’m going to force you to kiss me now!

Carrie Underwood: Hey guys, thanks for having me, this is so exciting!

Reilly: Wait, didn’t you say that when you first arrived?

Carrie Underwood: Oh my God, yes, thanks for having me, this is so much fun!

Jay Cutler: Dude, there’s an on-off switch on the back of her head. She’s literally a robot. Not that I care, or anything.

Carrie Underwood: Makes stuff up all the time, yeah!

Reilly: Oh, come on! How is it that a robot is the only woman remotely interested in me?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about famous robots, Kevin. Let’s begin with Data from Star Trek, Kevin. Are you a Trekkie, Kevin? Technically Data is an android, Kevin. What about Robocop, Kevin? Then there’s the Terminator, Kevin. What do you think about Optimus Prime, Kevin? Let’s chat about HAL 9000, Kevin. Can we discuss Bender, Kevin? Can we not spoil Westworld, Kevin? You can’t forget the Iron Giant, Kevin. And last but not least, there’s Kevin robot girlfriend, the only girl that would ever want to touch, Kevin, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO FIND A NON-ROBOT GIRL I CAN FORCE INTO BEING MY GIRLFRIEND, AND THEN YOU WILL CRY, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Like the Lions, the Eagles foolishly played their starters in Week 18. They could have gone to the No. 2 seed with a win and a Dallas loss, but considering the Redskins were sitting some key veterans, there was only a microscopic chance that the Cowboys would lose. A smart coaching staff would have recognized this, but not the Eagles. Instead, Philadelphia paid the price. A.J. Brown suffered a knee injury, and then Jalen Hurts dislocated his finger.

This would have been a no-brainer matchup a few weeks ago, as Hurts throwing to Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert would have given the Eagles a big edge over the Buccaneers and their struggling secondary. However, Hurts, Brown and Smith are all banged up. It’s unclear if Brown and Smith will play, and even if they do, they may not be 100 percent. There’s a chance Quez Watkins is the No. 1 receiver, which would be a total disaster, especially if Hurts is hindered by his injured finger.

The Eagles’ only alternative may be to run the ball with D’Andre Swift, but this doesn’t seem very feasible. First of all, the Eagles don’t run block very well, and second, the Buccaneers have a stout ground defense capable of putting the clamps on Swift.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s no sure thing that the Buccaneers will be able to score either. Baker Mayfield was miserable against the Panthers. He scored just nine points and was fortunate that the Panthers dropped some potential interceptions. Mayfield was dealing with a rib injury of sorts, so it’s not a surprise that he struggled in such a difficult matchup.

Mayfield might be able to rebound this week. He’ll be further removed from his rib injury, so there’s a chance we’ll see a healthier quarterback in this game. Also, it’s been well documented how bad Philadelphia is against the pass. The Eagles won’t be able to contain Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

The Eagles have been terrible versus the run as well to close out the year, as the Georgia defensive linemen have seemingly hit a wall. Thus, the Buccaneers will have a chance to move the chains with Rachaad White, who has enjoyed a solid season.

RECAP: I absolutely hate it that the Eagles and Buccaneers are playing against each other in the opening round of the playoffs because I wanted to fade both teams in the postseason. Instead, we’ll only be able to do so with one of them the following week.

As for this week, I’m inclined to take the Buccaneers. I may put a small bet on them depending on the status of Philadelphia’s receivers. However, this won’t be a big wager because the Buccaneers are an extremely overrated team. I also want to fade the NFC South one last time, as those four teams were just 16-28 against the spread outside of the division.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t gotten an injury report yet. I’m curious to see if the Philadelphia receivers will be practicing at all.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith both practiced fully on Friday. This is enough to get me to switch to the Eagles.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this year, and with A.J. Brown sidelined, more production will funnel toward Dallas Goedert. The best number for him is over 47.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There are -2.5s available, but the best vig I’m seeing at the moment is -117 at Bookmaker. We might be able to get something better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ll have another prop and a same-game parlay in a second, but I thought I’d post my final thoughts on the pick first. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I like the Eagles for a couple of units. The best line is -3 +101 at Bookmaker.

PLAYER PROPS II: I regret not betting Josh Allen’s over rushing yards. I love betting the over rushing yards for mobile quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs, but I thought the Stefon Diggs prop was better. The best number for Jalen Hurts’ over rushing is 38.5 -110 at FanDuel.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to throw in the Goedert 50+ receiving yards and Hurts 50+ rushing yards with DeVonta Smith’s receiving over (80+) and Hurts anytime touchdown. This pays out +1545 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Slight action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 51% (572,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.