NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2023 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
2023 NFL Picks: 99-98-6 (-$7,060)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 10, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I found highlights of the Greatest Show on Turf, on the greatest football show on Earth from two decades ago, NFL Primetime. This highlight features the William Tell Overture, Kurt Warner throwing for 390 yards and four touchdowns in two-and-a-half quarters of action, and a Jim Harbaugh fumble. Plus, a hilarious moment the first time the Chargers had the ball:

It’s insane that Warner was on pace to throw for 6,000 yards in a 16-game season despite not playing full games. I remember playing fantasy in 2000, and some people would use Trent Green as their starting quarterback even though he was the Rams backup quarterback!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers could not be stopped against the Eagles. They had negative yardage after two drives, but then it was off to the races. They torched Philadelphia’s secondary relentlessly, as the San Francisco wide receivers were breaking tackles when they weren’t wide open.

We just saw the 49ers have their way with the Seahawks two weeks ago. Not much has changed on this side of the ball aside from preparation time for Seattle. Perhaps the Seahawks coaching staff will be able to devise a game plan to slow the 49ers down a bit, but there’s the issue of the raw talent advantage for San Francisco.

The Seahawks could limit Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk a bit because they tend to play well against outside receivers. However, they’ve allowed top-10 production to tight ends this year, so George Kittle could be in for a big game. And while they tend to stop the run well, they also surrender lots of receiving yardage to opposing backs, so Christian McCaffrey figures to dominate another matchup.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks weren’t able to be competitive in the battle versus San Francisco two weeks ago because Geno Smith wasn’t healthy. Smith got hurt in the previous game, yet had just three days of recovery time. He ended up playing, but wasn’t 100 percent.

Smith was much better versus Dallas, engaging Dak Prescott in a shootout. This almost came out of nowhere because Smith had struggled for weeks, but he looked like the 2022 version of himself that won Comeback Player of the Year. The 49ers have a weakness at cornerback, as they’ve surrendered top-three production to outside receivers. D.K. Metcalf abused the Cowboys, and he could continue his tirade versus the 49ers, as Smith, who is well protected, will be able to have time to locate his top wideout.

The Seahawks won’t have positive matchups everywhere on this side of the ball. The 49ers are terrific against the run, so Seattle’s starting rusher, whether it’s Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet, won’t find many good opportunities.

RECAP: We just saw the 49ers beat the Seahawks, 31-13, on Thanksgiving night. However, there’s reason to believe that this matchup will be different.

First of all, the Seahawks had no time to prepare for that game. They had just three days of rest. The 49ers did as well, but short weeks benefit the better team because the inferior squad doesn’t have the preparation time needed to devise a quality game plan. Seattle will have more than enough time to get ready for this game because they played on the preceding Thursday.

Second, Smith wasn’t 100 percent in that contest. It wasn’t even clear if he’d play on a short week after getting hurt the prior Sunday. He was able to suit up, but it was clear there was something wrong. That issue clearly resolved itself ahead of the Dallas game.

Third, the 49ers may not be fully focused. They’re coming off a huge statement win over the Eagles, and they just beat the Seahawks convincingly. What’s the motivation here? That angle clearly favors the Seahawks, as this is their Super Bowl.

Despite all the edges the 49ers had in their matchup with the Seahawks the first time around, they still won by “only” 18. That’s close enough to this spread that the Seahawks could cover if Smith’s health, the longer prep time, and the motivational advantage is worth a touchdown and a field goal.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp money on the Seahawks, which is not a surprise. Teams that blew out the opposition and meet two weeks later – a phenomenon we’ve seen occur frequently in the past decade – are just 6-12 against the spread in the rematch. It’s not a big sample size, but it makes sense that they would struggle to cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was a ton of action on the 49ers that steamed this line from -10.5 to -13. The reason is because Geno Smith may not play. In fact, Pete Carroll made it sound like Drew Lock will start. Look at this quote from Carroll:

“[Drew Lock] has been waiting for this opportunity and looking forward to it and preparing for it. If it comes to pass, he is as ready as he can get. Excited about him getting a chance to play.”

So, one of two things will happen here. First, Lock will start, and if so, this spread will leap over -14. The 49ers at -13 versus Lock seems like, well, a lock. Second, Smith will start, but he won’t be 100 percent. This will also give the 49ers a good chance to cover. Thus, I’m going to switch my pick to San Francisco and “lock” in a three-unit wager. The best number is the standard -13 -110, which you can find at multiple sportsbooks, including Caesars, BetMGM, and DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: George Kittle’s receiving yardage prop is 50.5. He’s gone over that total in six of his previous seven games. The lone exception was this matchup on Thanksgiving, which was bizarre because Seattle allows the ninth-most production to tight ends. I have to believe that Kittle will do much better in the rematch. The best vig is -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Geno Smith news. Based on everything, it sounds like Drew Lock will start.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Geno Smith is out, as expected. This line has crossed -14, as expected. The sharps bet the 49ers earlier when the Smith news first broke, but I doubt they’re taking the -14.5. The best line is -14.5 -108 at Bookmaker. I’d take that for a unit, with the difference being 14 as the fourth-most prominent key number.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

Letdown Alert: The 49ers are coming off a statement win and are now playing a team they just crushed.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -11.

Computer Model: 49ers -12.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 61% (156,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won the last 4 meetings.

Brock Purdy is 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Things once seemed so promising with Joshua Dobbs, but he has struggled with turnovers in his previous two starts. This was especially true of his loss prior to the bye in which he threw four interceptions against the Bears. Some of the picks weren’t his fault, but Dobbs definitely deserved blame for at least two of them.

The Raiders defense has recorded a fair number of interceptions this season, so perhaps they’ll be able to pick off Dobbs on multiple occasions. Then again, the Vikings have a strong offensive line, which is crucial for this matchup. The Raiders really rely on Maxx Crosby’s great pressure, but if Crosby can’t get there often because of a difficult matchup, we’ve seen Las Vegas’ defense falter.

The Raiders can be beaten via the run as well. This is an area in which the Vikings don’t excel. Alexander Mattison is a sub par running back at best who hasn’t taken advantage of quality matchups, so it doesn’t seem as though the Vikings will be able to exploit this liability.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders’ offensive woes continued prior to their bye. Excluding the game against the Patriots where the Raiders needed a safety to cross 20 points, the only time Las Vegas has eclipsed 20 points this year was against the Giants in a 30-6 victory where New York seemed to quit in the wake of Daniel Jones’ season-ending injury. The Week 12 battle against the Chiefs was no different. The Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but scored only three points the rest of the way.

It would be a surprise if the Raiders were able to eclipse 20 points in this game. They want to run the ball with Josh Jacobs, but that will prove to be difficult. The Vikings have a top-10 run defense that will make it difficult for Jacobs to have any running room.

Aidan O’Connell will be forced into unfavorable down-and-distance situations as a result. This is a problem because O’Connell has not handled the blitz quite well thus far. This must be noted because the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL.

RECAP: It’s a shame that these teams are playing against each other this week because they’re currently two of the more underrated teams in the NFL. Their defenses are better than people think they are, which is why they’re both ranked higher in EPA than most would believe. The Raiders are a respectable 17th despite their offensive woes, while the Vikings are just above them at 16th.

This puts the Raiders at -1 or -1.5, depending on how much of a home-field advantage you want to give them. That creates some line value with the Raiders at +3. I’d have interest in betting them if O’Connell weren’t so bad against the blitz. I think he could get into trouble in this game, as siding with backup quarterbacks versus top-12 defenses is generally a bad idea. Then again, Dobbs versus the Raiders’ No. 5 defense doesn’t inspire lots of confidence either.

I’m going to pass on this game, but I’ll take the Raiders +3 for office pool purposes. I don’t have much of a lean either way, so the tie-breaker will be the sharp money coming in on the home underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Jefferson is practicing fully, which is obviously great news for the Vikings. Then again, there’s sharp money coming in on the Raiders, so go figure.

SATURDAY NOTES: Justin Jefferson is back. Kolton Miller is out. Maxx Crosby is also banged up, but he’s expected to play. Still, the Raiders are in rough shape right now. I expect the Vikings to win this game. I may bet a unit or two on Minnesota.

PLAYER PROPS: Not many people know this, but the Vikings have developed a very strong run defense. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. I don’t think Josh Jacobs gets to 74.5 rushing yards. The best vig for this is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still unsure if I’ll be betting this game. My wager will be dictated by the inactives list.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kolton Miller is out, but Maxx Crosby will play. That will take me off a possible Vikings bet. If you want to bet on Minnesota, the best line is -3 +100 at Bookmaker. The sharps have taken the Raiders at +3.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.

Computer Model: Raiders -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 52% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Patriots have a top-10 defense, yet the Chargers still should have been able to score more than six points last week. They had a dreadful and lethargic performance in New England. It’s possible that they weren’t very focused against an inferior foe, so I expect a better effort in this contest.

The Chargers, however, may have a tough time scoring even if they plan on trying harder. I just don’t know if they can exploit Denver’s weaknesses on this side of the ball. One such liability is Denver’s poor run defense. The Broncos have allowed the most production to running backs, but Austin Ekeler doesn’t seem to be in the best form right now. He’s had some great fantasy performances because of fluky touchdowns, but the overall yardage hasn’t been there. Furthermore, the Broncos struggle versus tight ends, but are the Chargers really going to dissect Denver’s defense by repeatedly targeting Gerald Everett?

It doesn’t bode well for the Chargers that their offensive strength meshes with Denver’s strong point as well. Keenan Allen is the only reliable threat Justin Herbert has at his disposal, but the Broncos are one of the best teams at defending slot receivers. Allen can break most matchups, but this is an extremely difficult one.

DENVER OFFENSE: Like the Chargers, the Broncos are going to have issues exploiting where the opposition is weakest on this side of the ball, creating a bizarre matchup where both teams may have trouble scoring.

The Chargers are poor versus the pass, allowing the fifth-most production to outside receivers and the third-most production to tight ends. This is similar to the mismatch the Broncos had on their hands last week, yet Russell Wilson failed to exploit it. Sure, he had some nice connections with Courtland Sutton, but they didn’t occur very often, as Wilson ended up with three interceptions. Wilson has been better this year with Sean Payton, but he’s still not very good. Denver is simply not built to have Wilson lead the team to victory.

The Broncos are at their best when they can pound the rock with Javonte Williams, but they may not be able to do that efficiently. They’ve been much better versus ground attacks since the beginning of October, so Williams won’t be in a position to dominate.

RECAP: Both offenses figure to struggle, so the under might be the way to go in this game. Otherwise, I fail to recognize much of an angle. My first thought was to take the points with Denver, but that’s what I did last week in a very similar atmosphere in Houston, and that turned out to be the wrong move. So, are the Chargers the play, then? I’m not sure about that either. While I trust Herbert more than Wilson, I don’t want to be in a position where I’m backing the Chargers in what should be a close game. It feels like they’re going to find some new, creative way to lose.

I’m going to pencil in the Chargers -3, but this is one of the tougher games to handicap. I can’t see myself betting either side, barring some unexpected injuries.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved to -2.5, but I still don’t have any interest in betting the Chargers. This is a tough game to handicap.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing of note on the injury report, so I’ll continue to ignore this game.

PLAYER PROPS: While I hate both sides in this game, I will be betting a player prop. That would be Gerald Everett over 28.5 receiving yards. Aside from the Bengals, no team surrenders more production to tight ends than Denver. The best vig for this prop is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, no interest here. Let’s just move on.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was no sharp money on this game until today. The pros came in on the Chargers at -2.5. The line has since moved to -3. If you want to bet the Chargers, you can get -3 -108 at Bookmaker or DraftKings.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Everyone still loves the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chargers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Russell Wilson is 32-15 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 34-17 ATS as an underdog.

Chargers are 19-28 ATS in San Angeles.

Justin Herbert is 11-16 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more. ???

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills built their team to defeat the Chiefs. They deemed Kansas City to be the team that would stand in their way of the Super Bowl, so every decision they’ve made has been with the Chiefs in mind. Thus, you have to like their matchup edges against Kansas City.

Besides, it’s not like the Chiefs are overly healthy on this side of the ball. They’ve suffered multiple injuries at linebacker, and they also lost their talented, young safety Bryan Cook last week. The middle of the field will be wide open for Josh Allen, who figures to do way more running in this game than usual. James Cook also figures to have success on the ground against a questionable rush defense.

Of course, Allen will attempt to connect with Stefon Diggs and his other receivers. Diggs has a history of torching the Chiefs, and he must believe he’ll do so again after watching Christian Watson dominate this secondary on Sunday night.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have well-documented issues regarding drops. They blew their chance to defeat the Eagles because of these drops, and it could prove to be costly in a close game like this.

What’s key here is that the Bills can produce pressure on the quarterback without blitzing very often. This is crucial to beating elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes without relying on drops from the other side. Mahomes will see plenty of pressure, so he’ll have to rely on quick throws to avoid sacks. He’ll want to target Travis Kelce early and often, but the Bills are generally decent against tight ends.

The Chiefs can keep Mahomes clean by establishing the run. While the Bills are solid when it comes to defending aerial attacks, they really struggle to stop the rush. They are also very weak to running backs catching balls out of the backfield, so the Chiefs can get the ball to Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon in space of they recognize this liability.

RECAP: This is a tough spread to bet. I like the matchup advantages the Bills have against the Chiefs, yet I still think the most likely result of this game is Kansas City by three. This means that Kansas City -2.5 would be the right side.

However, given the injuries for the Chiefs and the matchup edge in favor of the Bills, one would think that the next-most likely result would be Buffalo winning by three rather than Kansas City by, say, six or seven. Remember, the Bills have had extra time to prepare the perfect game plan for the Chiefs, who are reeling with injuries at the moment.

I had some interest in betting the Bills at +3, but I can’t get there at +2.5. The sharps did a great job of taking that number off the board.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line continue to fall, but the Chiefs will likely have Nick Bolton, who is practicing fully. This is another game I almost certainly won’t be betting.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Bolton is back, but the Chiefs won’t have Drue Tranquill, Bryan Cook, Donovan Smith, and Isiah Pacheco. I may decide to bet the Bills.

PLAYER PROPS: I love betting overs on quarterback rushing props in the playoffs because mobile quarterbacks are more likely to run in big games. This is effectively a playoff game for the Bills. Josh Allen rushed for 81 yards at Philadelphia in Week 12, so we may see more of the same from him. The best number is over 32.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s finally been somewhat of a buyback on the Chiefs. So much for them being favored! I still like the Bills a bit, but not enough to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game. I don’t have a strong opinion on it. If you like the Bills, you can get +2 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.

Computer Model: Bills -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 52% (244,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Patrick Mahomes is 79-22 SU, 54-46 ATS (42-34 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 12-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: We must begin on this side of the ball because of how horrid Philadelphia’s defense was last week. The Eagles couldn’t tackle or cover anyone on the 49ers, who scored on almost every possession following the first couple of drives of the game. It got so bad that the Eagles began utilizing onside kicks in the middle of the fourth quarter.

None of this should have been surprising. The Eagles had been torched by opposing quarterbacks all year. Sam Howell looked like John Elway against them in two meetings, for example. They stood no chance against the 49ers, and the same thing could be said of this matchup. Dak Prescott is hot right now, as he’s developed some great chemistry with Brandin Cooks in addition to CeeDee Lamb. Both receivers will have their way with Philadelphia’s beleaguered secondary.

The Cowboys won’t have nearly as much success on the ground. The Eagles have an elite run defense that can put the clamps on Pollard. Christian McCaffrey was able to overcome the matchup last week, but he’s a better player than Pollard, and he also has superior run blocking in front of him.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The most shocking result last week wasn’t the Bengals-Jaguars contest on Monday Night Football, but rather the initial game of the week. The Cowboys were huge favorites versus the Seahawks, yet nearly lost at home, where they’ve been dominant. Geno Smith, who had struggled for weeks entering the game, torched the Cowboys relentlessly.

Perhaps this was a fluke, but Smith may have exposed some weaknesses in the Dallas secondary. Opposing quarterbacks may be able to exploit these liabilities if they have quality offensive line play to ward off the Dallas pass rushers. The Eagles obviously do. Their elite blocking unit gave Jalen Hurts all the time in the world last week, but Hurts often had issues finding open receivers. Hurts should have more success in this contest, and we know he can do it. Hurts was 17-of-23 for 207 yards and two touchdowns versus Dallas back in Week 9. He also scored once on the ground.

Like the Cowboys, the Eagles won’t get much out of their rushing attack. D’Andre Swift was limited to just 43 rushing yards in the first meeting, and there’s no reason to think that anything will change.

RECAP: This is a close call. So much so that I didn’t know where I was going when Dallas was favored by three. This spread has moved to 3.5, however, which makes the Eagles more appealing. I believe that the two most likely results of this game are Cowboys by three and Eagles by three, so we’re getting wins with both results.

Otherwise, I don’t have a strong lean either way. Everyone is going to be looking to fade the Eagles after what they saw last week, but San Francisco dismantled the Cowboys similarly earlier this season. Despite the issues Philadelphia has in its secondary, these teams are evenly matched. We saw that earlier in the year when a Week 9 battle between these teams was decided by an inch on two plays. And anyone looking to fade the Eagles based solely on what happened last week, shouldn’t forget that this team beat Dallas, Miami, and Kansas City.

It sucks to not have a bet on a nationally televised game, but I think this is close to a coin flip. I’m going to side with the Eagles because of the number, but that’s it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dallas Goedert announced that he will be back this week, and his full practice on Wednesday all but confirms that. Having Goedert on the field should really help the Eagles, who had trouble sustaining drives versus San Francisco.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are completely healthy, with the Eagles getting Dallas Goedert and Zach Cunningham back from injury. I still have a lean toward the Eagles, as they’re a good team coming off an embarrassing loss, but it’s a rough matchup for their secondary.

PLAYER PROPS: Brandin Cooks has cracked 44.5 receiving yards in four of his previous six games. Cooks has a terrific matchup against the Eagles, so I love the over. The best number is over 44.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We hit our same-game parlay on Thursday night, so let’s do it again! I’m going with Dak Prescott over 295 passing yards, CeeDee Lamb 92.5 receiving yards, Brandin Cooks over 44.5 receiving yards, and D’Andre Swift under 53.5 rushing yards. I expect Dallas to throw all over the Eagles, so going over on their quarterback and top two receivers makes sense. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift will be going against a top rush defense in a trailing script. He had 43 rushing yards versus the Cowboys in the first meeting, and the Eagles had the lead in that game! This parlay pays $30 to win $218 again. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sucks not to bet a stand-alone game, but at least we have the same-game parlay. The Eagles look appealing, but they match up very poorly versus Dallas.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Cowboys earlier in the week at -2.5 and -3, but not at -3.5. I still like the Eagles at +3.5, but not enough to bet them. If you want to, +3.5 -110 at PointsBet is the best number.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 53% (391,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Home Team has won the last 9 meetings (excluding when Eagles sat their starters).

Eagles are 39-28 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Dak Prescott is 37-27 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins absolutely destroyed the Redskins last week because they had a huge mismatch in their favor with Tua Tagovailoa and his terrific receivers dominating Washington’s anemic secondary. Believe it or not, this is pretty much the same, exact matchup.

The Titans are horrific against the pass, particularly when trying to stop outside receivers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both play on the outside, and I’m sure they just watched Alec Pierce accumulate 100 receiving yards against this defense last week. They have to be licking their chops in anticipation of torching the woeful Titans.

The Dolphins won’t have as much success running the ball because Tennessee is stout versus the rush, as those who chased Zack Moss in DFS discovered last week. However, Jeffery Simmons is out, so the Titans won’t be as strong versus the run in the coming weeks. De’Von Achane is someone who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball, so perhaps he’ll break a long gain or two.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Whether it’s via Derrick Henry or Tyjae Spears, the Titans need to run the ball in order to win. They’ve been victorious in most of their games in which they’ve been able to move the chains on the ground. This does not include last week’s bizarre game because of two fluky blocked punts and a missed extra point at the end of regulation.

There are two reasons to believe the Titans won’t be able to run the ball. First, the Dolphins don’t allow much on the ground, surrendering the 10th-least production to opposing running backs. Second, there’s a very good chance the Dolphins will be well ahead in this game. This will obviously take the Titans out of the run.

If this is true, Will Levis will have to engage in a shootout with Tagovailoa. Call me crazy, but I don’t see that working out very well. Levis holds the ball too long, so Miami’s defensive line will tee off on him. This will inevitably lead to some turnovers.

RECAP: For incredibly high spreads like this, the favorite needs to be a great team, while the opponent must be lousy. The favorite also needs to be healthy and focused.

You can check all of those boxes with Miami. I have the Dolphins listed at No. 2 in my NFL Power Rankings because of their improved defense. The Titans are a terrible team. They’re ninth-worst in net EPA, but that ranking will worsen with Simmons and potentially Henry sidelined. As for Miami’s health and focus, the Dolphins don’t have too many injuries and they don’t have a reason to overlook Tennessee.

This is also a phenomenal matchup for the Dolphins. It’s the same edge they had versus the Redskins, and we saw what happened in that 45-15 blowout.

If you’re worried about this spread being too high, don’t be. I actually think it’s too short. This spread should easily be above the key number of 14.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no indication that this line is heading to -14, but then again, neither of these teams has practiced yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: As expected, Jeffery Simmons has yet to practice. His absence will be huge in this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Terron Armstead is the only injury we’re waiting on, so hopefully he’ll be able to play.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: Ugh. I did not see this line getting to -14 after it was stuck at -13 or -13.5 for a while. I would drop the unit count above -14. Hopefully the line drops back down to -13.5.

PLAYER PROPS: Derrick Henry rushed for 38 yards against the Jaguars in Week 11 and 24 yards versus the Buccaneers in Week 10. This is a similar situation for him, as he’ll be going against a solid run defense in a negative game script. The best odds for this are under 54.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to include the Henry under rushing prop with the following: De’Von Achane over 56.5 rushing yards, Jaylen Waddle 5+ receptions and Tyreek Hill over 112.5 receiving yards. Achane could break a long run and will be given plenty of opportunities. Waddle has hit five-plus receptions in all but two games since Week 5. And he and Hill have great matchups. This parlay pays +913 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some sharp money on the Titans at +14, but that might just be some pros value shopping. I still love the Dolphins, and I’m glad we can get a -13.5 again. The best vig is -109 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -12.

Computer Model: Dolphins -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Miami: 79% (368,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Vrabel is 24-13 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.

Dolphins are 31-44 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -11.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 65 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, not New York, because New York is too dumb of a city to have a football stadium, unlike my great city of Philadelphia, which is home of my Philadelphia Eagles, and I’m the biggest super fan of them all! The Giants are a dumb team for knocking out the Eagles in the 2000 playoffs, and I’ve always hated them since, so I hope they die in a pit of fire with sharks and lava and spikes!

Emmitt: Thanks, General Leo. I take shark class when I was a student at the University of Florida College State City College University. We watch Shark Week video and then we take a real hard test with real hard question like, “Are shark hungry?” and “Do shark swim in the ocean?” I score a 30/100 on the test, but the teacher say I get the “A” alphabet because I do a good job of playing football so I get extra credit. But one thing I learn in this class that I remember is that shark cannot swim in fire or lava.

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s just a figure of speech, like “I’m so hungry I could eat a horse,” or “My hands are frozen,” or “Mother is going to bloody my butt with her stick if I say too many naughty things while on the air.”

Tollefson: I have an example for you, too, Kevin. “I’m so angry at one of my female slaves that I could bury her in the desert.” Everyone knows that’s a figure of speech because it’s so much easier to just dump the bodies into the ocean.

Reilly: That’s a good one, Tolly, though not like I’d know because up until a couple of months ago, I haven’t even been allowed to talk to women, so I wasn’t even in the position to dump their bodies into the ocean. Now, Mother has given me permission to talk to women because she bet the women at the hair salon that I could get a hotter singer girlfriend than Taylor Swift. Our producers set up this latest future girlfriend of mine to be someone local, so I’d like to welcome someone named … uhh… Lady Gaga…?

Lady Gaga: Hello everyone, it’s great to be here, but let’s not be too happy with ourselves because the patriarchy runs this country, and we need to dismantle the patriarchy if we ever want to live in a democracy again.

Reilly: What is patriarchy? I’m sorry, but I’ve been home schooled by Mother for the past 60 years and I haven’t graduated yet, so I still have a lot to learn.

Lady Gaga: What a surprise that a male hasn’t even learned what patriarchy is. It’s a society that favors men and pays them 63 percent more than women, who are excluded from power. I can see here that all the announcers are males, and all the players on the field are males. We must end the patriarchy and install women into power at all levels of the government, medical fields, and sports.

Charissa Thompson: Excuse me, Lady Gaga, but you are mistaken, for I have been hired to replace Adam Schefter as the sideline reporter until Schefter gets back from maternity leave. Schefter was a man, but all of the Covid shots have made him grow female body parts. Guys, I have some breaking news from the locker room. A giant squid-like monster has broken free and has swallowed half of the Giants players. If you see every Giants player take the field, just know that they are imposters. Half the team is gone. You can trust me because I’m a reliable source of news.

Reilly: Wow, this is the best news I’ve ever heard! Thanks, Charissa Thompson, you seem like a great, trustworthy sideline reporter! But back to the task at hand. If someone can help get rid of the patriarchy, it’s John Feasterman, our great senator president, and my close, personal friend because we both live at home with Mother!

John Fetterman: Shields up, red alert! What goes up must come down. What goes down must come down. Did you get the holy water? That’s not as good as the cross. Be careful of the false floors, or you’ll fall through! It’s always breakfast time somewhere in the world, sailor.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! OK, Lady Gaga, we will get rid of the patriarchy if I can force you to be my girlfriend. Do you have any other requests?

Lady Gaga: I’m not seeing any Black Lives Matters stickers anywhere, so I’m concerned that you don’t care about black lives. In fact, the guy doing most of the talking here is a pasty white guy, so I’m beginning to think that this entire network is racist!

Reilly: No, I’m down with the cause. You can trust me because I voted for Joe Bident! And he totally won the election even though no one attended any of his rallies! President Bident, can you please tell Lady Gaga that I am not racist?

Joe Biden: Now look here, you chocolate-flavored vanilla roach, I heard someone say the word Gaga recently. That just so happens to be the first word my new girlfriend said the other day. She’s a grown woman, sucking on a pacifier and spitting up breast milk. Reminds me of the days when I used to be a farmhand at an African American farm down in the weeds of Alabama. I was the only white man on this African American farm. Almost Black Farmer Joe they used to call me. I used to milk the utters of the cow and then shove my hand into the mouths of the little girls on the farm. This didn’t please this young man, Raisin Bran, who wanted to meet me in the parking lot with a razor, the one you sharpen on the curb. Now, the pool manager, he was white or I mean black, and he told me, “George, you gotta take this chain and wrap it around Raisin Bran’s neck.” I want to finish the story but my new girlfriend will be waking up from her late afternoon nap soon.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that Raisin Bran was going to meet him in the parking lot, but this is totally false and totally wrong because Sleepy Joe is a total disgrace and a total disaster, but don’t take it from me, take it from Raisin Bran, who is a big supporter of Trump, great guy that Raisin Bran, the total opposite of Sleepy Joe, who is a total disaster, especially when he was milking the cows at the African American farm in Alabama, which is a great place, everyone from Alabama loves Trump, and Trump loves everyone from Alabama, except for Sleepy Joe, who was the worst at milking cows, even worse than Crooked Hillary, now there’s a person who can’t milk a cow because Hillary is so crooked that the cow would probably get the blame for Russia collusion, or the pee tape like Trump got blamed for, even though there was no tape, but if there was a pee tape, frankly, it would be the best pee tape anyone has ever seen.

Wolfley: DONALD, I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY PEE TAPES ARE A BAD THING. MY EIGHTH FRIEND, VANILLA ICE CREAM WITH COTTON TOWELS FOR LEGS, HAS A PEE TAPE, AND HIS FAMILY WATCHES IT EVERY NIGHT.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Lady Gaga, have you recognized that I am not racist yet? I just got endorsed by Joe Bident!

Lady Gaga: An endorsement from President Biden means a lot because he restored our democracy, but you are still a pasty white man cheering for a team logo with white in it. Convert the Eagles logo to black, and then maybe I’ll consider going on a date with you – but if you touch me, that will be the end of you.

Reilly: That does it. I can be called sexist or racist, but if you threaten to change the logo of my Philadelphia Eagles, you are a horrible person in my book! New Daddy, can you believe the nerve of Lady Gaga? I can’t believe she wants to change the logo of my Philadelphia Eagles!

Jay Cutler: Oh wow, sounds super serious.

Reilly: I’m glad you agree with me, New Daddy!

Jay Cutler: I have no idea what I agreed to because I haven’t been paying attention to anything.

Reilly: New Daddy, I think you need to take me more seriously. Soon enough, I’ll have a girlfriend, and you’ll need to worry about when I come home from a late date at 9 o’clock!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about dates, Kevin, so since I’m more experienced with women than you, Kevin, I’ll advise you where you can go on a date, Kevin. How about the movies, Kevin? That’s a good place to start, Kevin. Then there’s a restaurant, Kevin. People like to eat, Kevin. You can Netflix and chill, Kevin. Then there’s mini-golf, Kevin. What do you think about a walk on the beach, Kevin? Let’s chat about a group hang at the mall, Kevin. Don’t forget the local rodeo, Kevin. What about a picnic, Kevin? And don’t forget, Kevin, you can always have a date in your bedroom where I’m sure no action will ever happen, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU ARE AN A**HOLE! LOTS OF ACTION HAPPENS IN MY BEDROOM ESPECIALLY WHEN I’M PLAYING WITH MY NICK FOLES BOBBLEHEADS! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The evolution of “No Cookie” Jordan Love has been staggering. Love looked completely lost even a month ago. He had horrendous losses against the Broncos and Raiders where he showed absolutely no pocket awareness. Now, he’s slicing and dicing through opposing defenses with ease. Love torched the Lions and Chiefs relentlessly the past two weeks.

Love shouldn’t have any issues remaining hot. The Giants have some major problems in their secondary. They allow the third-most production to slot receivers and the eighth-most production to outside receivers. New York has to blitz often to compensate for its defensive back issues, sending extra defenders at the second-highest clip in the NFL. Love has been excellent versus the blitz this year, throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions against it.

Love won’t have to do all the work either. He’ll be able to feed the ball to his running backs, as the Giants have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. It’ll help if Aaron Jones can finally return from injury, but no one should be holding their breath at this point.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Tommy DeVito enjoyed a great performance against the Redskins a few weeks ago. He showed that he’s capable of beating poor defenses. This is not one of those matchups.

The Packers carry the 14th-ranked EPA defense in the NFL heading into Week 13. This ranking could rise if Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes return from injury. Alexander was limited in practice all last week, so perhaps that’s a sign that he’s ready to return. Stokes may be ready to play for the first time since Week 7. The Giants already had a questionable passing game, and now their receivers are likely to see even tougher coverage.

The Giants’ best hope of moving the chains is via Saquon Barkley. The Packers have a run-funnel defense, so Barkley should have some big gains. However, the Packers are likely to stack the box and force DeVito to beat them. Also, running the ball may not be on the table for the Giants if they fall far behind.

RECAP: When dealing with high spreads like this, it’s important that the answer is yes for all three of these questions: 1. Is the favorite a very good team? 2. Is the opponent a poor team? 3. Is the favorite healthy and focused?

I’d say the answer to all three of these questions is yes. The Packers are just 6-6, but they’ve had so many close losses this year. They could easily be 8-4 or better right now, and if they were, we’d be thinking about them differently. They’re ranked sixth in net EPA. The Giants, conversely, are 30th. As for the third question, if at least one of Alexander or Stokes returns this week, we’ll be good for health purposes. Focus should be fine as well because this is a Monday night game, and the Packers, as a young and enthusiastic team, will want to prove themselves in the national spotlight.

The Packers also match up well against the Giants. Love will crush New York’s blitz, while the Packers’ highly ranked defense will give DeVito problems.

I really like the Packers in this game. They’re underrated, while people have forgotten how terrible the Giants are because they beat the Redskins and Patriots.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No practice report yet. I’m hoping for some good news on the Packers to confirm this large wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eric Stokes looks like he’ll play after being full in practice both days thus far. Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander were limited both days, so it’s still unclear if they’ll be able to take the field.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander are both listed as questionable with limited practices all week. I have a feeling at least one of them will miss this game, but I still really like the Packers.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: This spread has dropped to -6, probably because news broke that Aaron Jones won’t play. The Packers can still cover without him, so I’m not concerned even though it’s not ideal.

PLAYER PROPS: Jayden Reed’s over 4.5 receptions prop is plus money. This is because he’s caught exactly four passes in each of the past three games. However, he could go over tonight for two reasons. First, Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are out, so “No Cookie” Jordan Love may target Reed more often. Second, the Giants allow the third-most production to slot receivers. The best odds are over 4.5 receptions +126 at Caesars.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m throwing in Reed’s 4.5 receptions prop in with Saquon Barkley 3+ receptions, Tucker Kraft under 25.5 receiving yards, and Jalin Hyatt over 26.5 receiving yards. Barkley tends to catch at least three passes in negative game scripts. The Giants have surrendered the seventh-fewest yards to tight ends. And Hyatt broke out before the bye. I don’t know if he’ll be able to sustain his production, but it could be a sign of things to come. This prop is available at FanDuel for +860. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Giants at +6. This line is now +5.5 in some books, and even +5 -108 at Bookmaker. I assume this is because Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander are both sidelined. I hate this, but still like the Packers. I’m going to drop my unit count to three because of this news.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

Letdown Alert: The Packers are coming off a huge win against the Chiefs on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.

Computer Model: Packers -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 59% (306,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Packers -6.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Clear, 39 degrees, Mild/heavy wind, 17 mph.