2009 Fantasy Football Mailbag Notes: Note that the e-mails I received have been italicized and left unedited. My responses follow them.
8/12/09
2009 Fantasy Football E-mails – Clinton Portis vs. Michael Turner
I am confused as to why you rank Turner lower than Portis (though only by one spot)? Your argument for ranking Turner so low is that he touched the ball 382 times (and that is logical) however last year Portis touched the ball 370 times (1,268 touches over the past four years). So considering how much wear and tear Portis has endured shouldn’t he be rated in the low teens? It is my belief that Betts is going to see about 180-200 touches this year.
My Response:
A lot of things concern me about Michael Turner. For one, Turner rushed the ball 390 times, and history has shown that the league-leader in carries suffers a major dropoff.
Second, Turner accumulated most of his yardage against junk teams last year. You can say that looking the schedule is unpredictable, but the Falcons go against the AFC East and NFC East this year, which means they’ll be facing six really tough defenses. Last year, Turner had the luxury of beating up on the crap AFC West.
Third, Turner is not a three-down running back; he can’t catch the ball out of the backfield, so if the Falcons are behind a lot this year – considering their defense, that could happen – Jerious Norwood will be on the field more than Turner’s owners would like.
With all of this said, they’re only one ranking apart. I would just rather have Portis than Turner, but that’s me.
As much as I like Aaron Rodgers this year, the value in my league (quarterbacks are drafted too high) is obviously waiting on QB; on the otherhand I feel he is a worthy 3rd-rounder. Do you agree with that assessment? Or do I wait, take advantage of the great value, and get like three QBs (we can carry seven bench spots), like Palmer, Schaub, Hasselback, Campbell combo? I could probably get those three somewhere between the seventh and 12th.
P.S. on the Chefs: I agree with you a lot, but I think you are off on the Chefs. Cassel is better than you give credit, he doesnt make that many mistakes and can kill out of the pocket, there will be a new attitude in the locker with a no-nonsense regime, the talent is there on defense for respectability, and Larry Johnson is poised to earn his last big contract negotiation (I have to think he is finally old enough to realize he must have a big, clean year), plus his backups are competitive, and Bowe just produces.
My Response:
I wouldn’t carry three QBs. If you like Aaron Rodgers a lot, you should take him. I’d recommend making a top 150/200 list, or getting one from somewhere, and just going with the best player available as long as it fits a starting slot. Don’t reach for anyone because he plays a certain position.
As for the Chefs, I’ll admit if I’m wrong at the end of the year… but I just don’t see how they have any sort of redeemable qualities, outside of their cornerbacks and the fact that they play in a poor division. I think their defense will be horrific, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, the offense is going to have major problems trying to win shootouts.
Robert Meachem not a top 96 WR? I think that’s a mistake… word is he’s ‘getting it’ …and as minimal as his numbers were last year, he finished in the top 90 in WR fantasy pts… at least he seems like a top 65-70 guy this year…
Anyway, I’ve got the ninth pick in my league, and plan on taking Calvin Johnson with the first pick, then loading up on running backs Rounds 2-4, Santonio/Royal/DeSean Jackson at WR in 5th (whoever is there, Royal 1st choice – PPR league), then another RB in 6th, either Carson, McNabb, or Schaub in 7th, then loading up on WRs for the next five rounds, mixing in Dustin Keller at TE in the 10th or 11th.
My Response:
Nate Ravitz on ESPN Fantasy podcast made a great point about Robert Meachem – one that I completely agreed with. Every year, there seems to be a receiver who lights it up in training camp but once preseason or the regular season begins, he completely disappears. It used to be Todd Pinkston. Then it was Travis Taylor. Then it was Dez White. Then it was D.J. Hackett. Now, it’s Meachem.
Meachem has never shown anything in a regular-season game, so I wouldn’t even feel comfortable spending a late-round pick on him. The Saints just have so many options anyway… you know Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Devery Henderson are all going to get the ball, plus Sean Payton will run the ball more this year with a better defensive unit. I just don’t see how Meachem fits in, but maybe I’m wrong.
If you feel as though Calvin Johnson is the best player at No. 9 overall, then you should draft him. If Matt Stafford can get protection this year, Johnson will put up monstrous numbers. What I would suggest is for you to print out a top 150/200 list (or make one yourself) and take the best players available as long as you’re filling in starters or your top RB reserve. Don’t fall into the trap of taking players based solely on position per round; just go with the guy on top of your board.
I have a dilemma. I have the 8th pick in a PPR fantasy football league with 12 teams, normal starting lineups plus a flex RB/WR position. I know you are very high on Knowshon and I think you are correct in your thinking. My dilemma is, when the 3rd round comes along (pick 32), what players need to be available in order for me to consider passing on Knowshon hoping to grab him in the fourth round?
I am thinking if one of the 2 players are available, Kevin Smith or Pierre Thomas, I am going to select them and hope to land Knowshon as well in the 4th round because there is a better chance he will slide. Do you agree or is Knowshon so much better than Smith or Thomas that I shouldn’t risk it? If I could somehow land Knowshon in the 4th round, I think that would put me as the favorite in the league but I don’t want to be too greedy which I know can get you into trouble.
My Response:
I only have Knowshon Moreno a few points higher than Kevin Smith and Pierre Thomas, so if you’re in a league with a lot of guys who aren’t too sharp and read only fantasy mags, you can afford to wait on Moreno to the fourth (or maybe even fifth) round. However, if you’re in a league with several sharp owners, you may have to settle for Moreno in Round 3.
I’ve seen Moreno fall to Round 5 in some drafts, so taking the risk of getting both Smith/Thomas and Moreno could be very lucrative. I, unfortunately, don’t have that luxury because many people I’m in leagues with read my site and consequently like Moreno as well, so you’ll be seeing me take him in Round 3 of many of my drafts.
But as I said, if you get the sense that no one else is high on Moreno, you should take a chance.
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