2023 NFL Picks – Week 8: Eagles at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Let’s begin with this side of the ball because the Eagles made a significant trade Monday to help shore up their poor secondary. They acquired Kevin Byard from the Titans, which will really help with their biggest weakness. The Eagles have allowed plenty of big passing performances this season, including one to Sam Howell back in Week 4. Byard won’t fix all the problems, but he’ll definitely help.

Given that Howell will have to deal with an improved secondary, he won’t repeat his success from the previous matchup. In fact, he could be substantially worse, given his propensity for taking sacks. Howell holds on to the ball too long, which could cause lots of problems against a Philadelphia defense ranked fourth in pressure rate.

The Eagles are also extremely stout when it comes to defending the run. Brian Robinson won’t get much on the ground, which will undoubtedly cause Howell to struggle in unfavorable passing situations.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Redskins have the same problems the Eagles possessed in their secondary, but the difference is that they didn’t make a trade for a Byard-caliber player. Washington has surrendered the most receptions of 50-plus yards in the NFL this season – a number that figures to rise in this matchup.

I don’t see how the Redskins’ horrific defense will stop Jalen Hurts and his receivers at all. Their pass rush won’t impact Hurts because the Eagles have an excellent offensive line, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

Washington isn’t very good versus the run either. The Eagles will be able to run all over the Redskins, especially if/when they’re up big in the second half and attempting to nurse a lead.

RECAP: You probably know what I’m going to say. The Eagles are overrated, they’re favored by too many points, they can’t cover wide receivers, yadda yadda yadda, I like the other side.

Believe it or not, that’s not the case. I’m actually backing the Eagles here, and I’m doing so for a couple of reasons. First, they made a great trade to acquire Byard, who will shore up their biggest weakness. Second, I think the Redskins are more overrated than the Eagles are, or at least were prior to the Byard trade. Washington is 3-4, but is easily one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Redskins can’t do anything well. They can’t block whatsoever, while the secondary is an abomination. Philadelphia’s offense will do whatever it wants in this matchup, while the defense will hound Howell all afternoon.

If the Eagles are fully focused, they’ll almost be able to name the score of this game. However, I am not going to bet them because this is such a rough spot. They’re coming off a big win on national TV and will be playing this contest against a team they’ve already beaten prior to taking on Dallas. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Eagles were flat, but perhaps almost losing to Washington in the first meeting will keep them alert enough to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Curtis Samuel in Wednesday’s practice. Samuel’s absence would be huge for Washington’s bid to get a back-door cover because he has played such a big role for them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jordan Davis doesn’t look like he’s going to play after being downgraded each day in practice. This could make the Eagles weaker to the run, but I don’t plan on switching to Washington.

PLAYER PROPS: I’d love to bet A.J. Brown props, but the over-unders are all bloated. DeVonta Smith, conversely, is available at a discount versus a defense that is second in fantasy points allowed to outside receivers. The best over number is 48.5 -120 at Bet MGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Davis will play, so that’s one concern for the Eagles that I don’t have anymore. The best line is -6.5 -115 at Bookmaker. The sharps love the Redskins.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Eagles are coming off a big win on Sunday night, and after this “easy” game, they battle the Cowboys.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Ron Rivera is 8-3 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+ ???

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 73 degrees. Light wind.