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2011 Fantasy Football: ADP Analysis



There will be many more 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.



2011 Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis (July 15):

Knowing the average draft position (ADP) of players is important. Say you really like a player as a mid-round sleeper. You're thinking about picking him in the sixth round, but then you see that he has a ninth-round ADP. In that scenario, you can afford to select a different player in Round 6, and then get the guy you want in Rounds 7 or 8.

Here are my top 12 overvalued and undervalued fantasy players according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP (as of June 11).


2011 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Overvalued:

12. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. ADP: 6.07.
Kenny Britt has been arrested a billion times this offseason, so he could be suspended for several games. When he comes back, he still may have trouble producing depending on whom the Titans sign at quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck would be a decent signing for Britt, while a finished Donovan McNabb could be disastrous. It's still way too early to tell, so I think a sixth-round selection is too early for Britt.

11. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns. ADP: 2.11.
I've discussed Peyton Hillis ad nauseum this offseason. He wore down the stretch, prompting general manager Tom Heckert to say that Hillis was overworked in 2010. Hillis will share carries with Montario Hardesty and perhaps a free agent, so drafting him in the second round of standard leagues is a mistake.

10. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers. ADP: 5.02.
Jermichael Finley is unbelievably talented, but he's coming off a knee injury. He could be completely healthy, but I definitely don't want to spend an early fifth-round selection on a recovering tight end. I'd rather use a Round 7 pick on Jimmy Graham.

9. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers. ADP: 5.07.
Ryan Grant may not be the starting running back for the Packers this year, so his ADP is way too high. Grant is coming off an injury and will face competition from a more talented James Starks. Even if Grant starts right away, he could lose touches to Starks as the season progresses.

8. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. ADP: 2.11.
DeSean Jackson suffered a concussion against the Texans during the 2010 season. After that, he ran nothing but go routes. Teams figured this out, and they shut him down. Jackson is really brittle, and it's very unlikely that he'll play all 16 games this year. I'd rather use my late second-round pick on someone more reliable.

7. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins. ADP: 6.04.
Many assume Daniel Thomas will get the carries in Miami, but I wouldn't be so sure. The Dolphins plan on signing a free agent running back, so there could be a timeshare.




6. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons. ADP: 2.02.
Anyone who watched the Falcons at the end of last season knows that Michael Turner was running on fumes. Turner led the league in carries for the second time in three years, so he's due for a major decline in 2011. I don't even have Turner in the top 20 of my 2011 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings, so I think his ADP of 2.02 is preposterous.

5. Steve Smith, WR, Giants. ADP: 7.08.
Steve Smith is coming off a nasty knee injury, and he's expected to start the season on the PUP list. Smith may not play until late October or November, and there's no guarantee he'll be even close to 100 percent until the 2012 campaign. He should be nothing but a late-round flier.

4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots. ADP: 6.03.
Why is BenJarvus Green-Ellis even being drafted in the first 10 rounds? Law Firm scored a bunch of touchdowns last year, but Bill Belichick was clearly unimpressed, opting to select two running backs in the first three rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft. It's unclear what Belichick's running back rotation is going to be, but he clearly doesn't want Green-Ellis touching the ball all that much.

3. Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins. ADP: 7.01.
Ryan Torain is a waste of a pick. First of all, he might not even be the starter this year; Roy Helu is generating a ton of buzz, and could take over as the lead back during the season. Second, even if Torain does start, he won't give you much. Washington's offensive line stinks, while quarterback John Beck won't give any of his running backs many goal-line opportunities.

2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos. ADP: 4.05.
Knowshon Moreno's ADP of 4.05 is a byproduct of misinformed fantasy drafters. Josh McDaniels loved Moreno, but he's gone. Denver's new front office doesn't think of Moreno as anything more than a third-down back. They happen to be the favorites to land DeAngelo Williams.

In the unlikely scenario that Moreno somehow secures the starting running back gig, there are still two issues. First, he won't score many touchdowns because Tim Tebow will command most of the goal-line work. And second, he'll still be injury-prone and unreliable.

1. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens. ADP: 5.07.
I really don't understand Anquan Boldin's ADP. Hell, I wouldn't even draft him in the 16th round. Boldin is done. He averaged 30 yards per game in the final nine weeks of the season last year. He has lost all of his speed, and he can't separate any longer. Baltimore's two rookie receivers (Torrey Smith, Tandon Doss) should eat into Boldin's snaps as the season goes along.




2011 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Undervalued:

12. Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins. ADP: 4.04.
I've been able to get Brandon Marshall in the fifth round in some of my fantasy mock drafts, so I was surprised to see his ADP at 4.04. I still think he's great value there, however. People are down on Marshall because he scored three touchdowns last year, but he'll bounce back. Also, he's reportedly been working really hard despite getting stabbed by his wife, so this could be another Ben Roethlisberger-type situation where a player takes an off-the-field incident and puts it aside to take his game to another level.

11. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders. ADP: 10.04.
Jacoby Ford is a really talented receiver ready to take the next step in his second season. Oakland's defense won't be as good this year, so Jason Campbell will have to throw more often. That's good news for fantasy owners who are lucky enough to land Ford.

10. Mark Clayton and Danario Alexander, WRs, Rams. ADP: 11.10 and 12.06.
I might as well group these guys together. I've talked about Mark Clayton and Danario Alexander a few times this summer. Whoever becomes Sam Bradford's favorite target has the potential to post Brandon Lloyd-type numbers. As I'm watching every preseason game this August, I'm going to keep track of whom Bradford is targeting on every play, and I'll have that information available to you in my preseason fantasy stock rankings.

9. Matt Forte, RB, Bears. ADP: 2.10.
I feel like Matt Forte has a pretty low bust rate. He's never had any serious injuries; he hasn't even missed a game in his professional career. He's a big factor in the passing attack, so he'll be on the field. And his offensive line has improved this offseason. Forte is a pretty good bargain at 2.10.

8. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. ADP: 2.06.
I guess people are down on Steven Jackson because they believe he's about to decline. I don't see it that way. I think he'll have tons of touchdown opportunities in what should be an explosive Rams offense this season. He's a steal at 2.06.

7. Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos. ADP: 12.07.
This ADP baffles me. The only risk with Tim Tebow is injury. He's going to start for the Broncos, and as long as he's healthy, he's going to post running back numbers in addition to his passing stats. Tebow legitimately could score 10 rushing touchdowns this year.

6. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers. ADP: 3.02.
LeGarrette Blount has a great chance of finishing as a top-eight fantasy running back this season, so you're getting a major steal if you can land him at 3.02. I'd be happy getting him in the early stages of the second round.



5. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers. ADP: 13.04.
Hines Ward has spent this offseason getting a DUI and partaking in $10 reality TV shows like Eating Cereal with the Stars. Emmanuel Sanders, meanwhile, is a young, talented receiver whose role increased as the 2010 season went along. Sanders will be a greater part of the offense this year. He should take over as Ben Roethlisberger's No. 2 target quite soon.

4. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. ADP: 10.10.
Man, I wish I can get Jordy Nelson in the 10th round of all my fantasy leagues. With Donald Driver's career pretty much finished, Nelson is going to be a huge part of Green Bay's high-octane offense in 2011. Nelson was already piling up impressive numbers at the end of last season; just look at his playoff run beginning with the Atlanta game: 17 catches, 286 yards, two touchdowns.

3. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys. ADP: 5.03.
Why select Peyton Manning in the second round or Philip Rivers in the third round when you can just get Tony Romo in the fifth? I have Romo at 286 points in my 2011 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings - only 13 points behind Manning. That's one point per week in the regular fantasy season.

2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers. ADP: 4.09.
If DeAngelo Williams signs elsewhere, I'm moving Jonathan Stewart into the top 10 of my 2011 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings. With opposing defenses worried about Cam Newton's running ability, Stewart will have huge lanes at his disposal, a la Chris Johnson with Vince Young in 2009. Stewart is an unbelievable steal at 4.09. The only risk is Williams re-signing with the Panthers.

1. Sam Bradford, QB, Rams. ADP: 10.10.
Josh McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into fantasy studs. If he was able to do that with mediocre quarterbacks, imagine what he'll accomplish with Sam Bradford. I absolutely love Bradford this year, and I'm going to try my hardest to have him on all of my fantasy rosters. That could prove to be difficult though because most of my league members read my Web site. FML.

***** COMMENT BOX IS BELOW THESE LINKS *****


More 2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football: Home

2011 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/26 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 8/27 (Walt)

2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown - 9/8 (Walt)

2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Real League Draft - 8/31 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Fake Mock - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Experts Draft - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum 2-QB Mock - 7/21 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Scenarios - 7/17 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction: Mock PPR Auction - 7/14 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum PPR Mock - 7/7 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum Mock - 7/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Four-Man PPR Draft - 6/19 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Fox Sports - 5/5 (Walt)

2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Week 2 Add/Drop - 9/13 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Training Camp Stock - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 9/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Preseason Recap and Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Targets - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Late-Round Sleepers - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Round-by-Round Strategy - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Value Comparison - 9/1
2011 Fantasy Football: Must-Have Players - 8/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Busts, Players to Avoid - 7/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers - 7/23 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Various League Strategy - 7/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Three-Dimensional Running Backs - 7/16 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: ADP Analysis - 7/15 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History - 7/10 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/9 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/4 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis - 7/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/12 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Up (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Down (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 4/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 4/8 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/8 (Walt)

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Chnwi 01-04-2014 12:43 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.75 (total posts: 1)
2     2

David, your instructors are aiznmag. Wish I could be there. And as for stoked about Monday all day, everyday.Hope it is all you wanted, plus a ton more.
Barron 09-15-2011 04:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.255 (total posts: 1)
27     28

Wow this is bad, I was just doin a quick yahoo search for Moreno's ADP so I can get some idea on the value for a trade proposal and I get this garbage. Wouldn't draft Bolden? You are a silly silly man. I can't believe you even have a webpage that is still available to be viewed. Sad........

Tebow....cmon
J.Stew.....cmon
Mark Clayton......WOW
Kingsouder 09-05-2011 08:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx2.16 (total posts: 1)
32     32

These are probaly some of the worst predictions I've read in quite some time. You wouldn't even draft holdin... Really... But you would take the third recover from st.Louis. Your an idiot
Joe 07-16-2011 02:11 pm xxx.xxx.xxx0.81 (total posts: 1)
32     29

Yeah, I don't follow the Jonathan Stewart/CJ2K comparison. CJ2K was much more talented and had a much better offensive line. In fact, in 2009, Johnson averaged 156.8 ypg in 10 games with Vince Young while he averaged 167 ypg in 6 games with Kerry Collins. So, he actually put up better numbers WITHOUT vy at the helm. The argument doesn't make sense.
Matt 07-15-2011 08:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.97 (total posts: 1)
29     29

You select Manning in the 2nd round or Rivers in the 3rd Round instead of Romo in the 5th round because Manning and RIvers are much better than Romo. That's common knowledge.

But, QBs have been falling much further than that in recent drafts. Drafters have been realizing the slim RB depth and targeting them in the first few rounds, then grabbing the good value at WR, then looking for their QBs. I've gotten Brady, Manning, and Rivers in the 5th round in 3 straight drafts. Guys like Romo and Big Ben can be had in the 6th or 7th.
1 more 07-15-2011 03:25 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.113 (total posts: 2)
29     29

By the way Walt, are you scared at all of Andre Johnson declining (even if not huge) at all? Not a huge decline, but one that would make him unworthy of a 1st round selection. He's only 30 so I guess not. I'm just not sure how long he could keep dominating. And is there any doubt in your mind he's the #1 WR, or is there someone else who could overtake him this year? Thanks Walt.
2 Things 07-15-2011 03:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.113 (total posts: 2)
31     29

1) Why would a running QB (a la Vince Young or Cam Newton) open up running lanes for the RB. The only reason we have is because Chris Johnson had a huge year with VY as his QB. Maybe the offensive line was just very good that year. I mean, wouldn't defenses stack the box against a running QB to try to take away his running game - which would hurt Stewart (more men in the box)? And what about LeSean McCoy if this is true. Shouldn't he be higher?

2) I don't think Josh McDaniels turned Matt Cassell or Kyle Orton into fantasy studs at all. He transformed them from bad QBs to serviceable fantasy players (I still wouldn't have wanted to have either as my fantasy starter when they were under McDaniels). I do understand your reasoning though. Bradford is soo much more talented than they were, McDaniels is a great offensive mind - it's a match made in heaven.

PS - I would have Matt Stafford and Mario Manningham on undervalued. Also love the Danario Alexander / Mark Clayton sleeper pick. Makes total sense that one of them will have a large year under an improving QB and awesome offensive mind.
camtron 07-15-2011 02:50 pm xxx.xxx.xxx16.6 (total posts: 1)
29     29

Matt stafford is going somewhere around the 10th rd also right? I mean I'd rather have Bradford as a back up, but when stafford is healthy he puts up good fantasy numbers, and when your throwing to the 2nd most talented receiver in football you gotta like his chances as long as he's healthy (I know, this can be rebuttaled by fitz's situation in the desert, but stafford is way better than any of the signal calling clowns the cards tried using last yr)
Also, I'm a huge fan of Ryan mathews going somewhere in the 3rd rd, and like Walt's case for bradford, I am going to try my hardest to own him in every league I have at a 3rd rd value...I think everyone is going to be kicking themselves for not drafting him in the 3rd rd or even 2nd at the conclusion of this season, and that's saying a lot for me, a guy who REFUSED to draft him at all last yr...I wouldnt have taken him even in the 5th rd last yr but watch out for him now, assuming he stays injury free he is going to be money!
Anthony 07-15-2011 01:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.133 (total posts: 2)
37     32

Since you like Stewart as good value this year, I would assume that you also like Mike Goodson? Goodson will get to run through those same running lanes when given the opportunity and possesses great speed. He also will be in the game on third downs after ammassing 40 receptions last season. I expect number to go up, making Goodson a solid bench RB with high upside should Stewart get hurt or Carolina decides to give Goodson more work. Of course this is all pending DeAngelo leaving, but I expect that to happen.
Anthony 07-15-2011 01:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.133 (total posts: 2)
30     32

I'm going to have to disagree with you on Daniel Thomas, Walt. The Dolphins HAVE been adament about adding another running back, but more of a third down type of player a la Darren Sproles. In the run heavy attack that the Dolphins use, I would have no problem using a 6th round pick on Thomas if this came to fruition.

It would be unfair for me to only criticize though. Nelson and Tebow are undoubtedbly steals this year. Tebow especially. Anyone who likes Vick this year should like Tebow for the same reasons.
Satan 07-15-2011 12:42 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 1)
30     37

Clayton and/or Alexander COULD break out, but Avery (back from injury) or Amendola could just as easily. They also have some guy I never heard of, Brandon Gibson, who racked up 600+ yards last year, so he can't be ignored, either.

They also just spent a 2nd-round pick on a pass-catching TE, and last year, a 4th-rounder on Gilyard (WR), the high-profile Big East POY.

It's so hard to figure out who's gonna get the lion's share of ball thrown his way. Surely, ONE of these guys has to prove to be head-and-shoulders better than the rest of the group at some point, but when?
Dan 07-15-2011 11:56 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.34 (total posts: 1)
29     29

I have a very difficult time believing that johnathan stewart will be a big factor on a terrible team with a running QB.

I would put the rams receivers at number 3 or higher depending on which one of the two wins out on the #1 spot. unbelievable value in a terrible pass defending division
Brady Quinn 07-15-2011 09:02 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.97 (total posts: 1)
28     30

Me? Thanks for the shout out Bob! I'm finna do big things in 12!
bob 07-15-2011 07:12 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.11 (total posts: 1)
29     29

Why does everyone forget Brady? That's the image for Bradford this year.

Also, why all the Turner hate and no focus on Mendenhall?
Walter 07-11-2011 07:24 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.88 (total posts: 1)
29     29

First comment... we're going to have comment boards like this all over the site soon. We're still working out the kinks, so this is not the finished product.




2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Free Agents - April 16


2015 NFL Mock Draft - April 10


Fantasy Football Rankings - March 28


2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 26


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