(I think my math is right.)
A lot has changed in the last five weeks - I don't even remember putting Carson Wentz on my board and now he's heavily projected to go 2nd overall - so this should be an interesting change of pace from my last draft. Updates will be weekly or bi-weekly from here on out.
5. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers. ADP: 13.04.
Hines Ward has spent this offseason getting a DUI and partaking in $10 reality TV shows like Eating Cereal with the Stars. Emmanuel Sanders, meanwhile, is a young, talented receiver whose role increased as the 2010 season went along. Sanders will be a greater part of the offense this year. He should take over as Ben Roethlisberger's No. 2 target quite soon.
4. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. ADP: 10.10.
Man, I wish I can get Jordy Nelson in the 10th round of all my fantasy leagues. With Donald Driver's career pretty much finished, Nelson is going to be a huge part of Green Bay's high-octane offense in 2011. Nelson was already piling up impressive numbers at the end of last season; just look at his playoff run beginning with the Atlanta game: 17 catches, 286 yards, two touchdowns.
3. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys. ADP: 5.03.
Why select Peyton Manning in the second round or Philip Rivers in the third round when you can just get Tony Romo in the fifth? I have Romo at 286 points in my 2011 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings - only 13 points behind Manning. That's one point per week in the regular fantasy season.
2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers. ADP: 4.09.
If DeAngelo Williams signs elsewhere, I'm moving Jonathan Stewart into the top 10 of my 2011 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings. With opposing defenses worried about Cam Newton's running ability, Stewart will have huge lanes at his disposal, a la Chris Johnson with Vince Young in 2009. Stewart is an unbelievable steal at 4.09. The only risk is Williams re-signing with the Panthers.
1. Sam Bradford, QB, Rams. ADP: 10.10.
Josh McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into fantasy studs. If he was able to do that with mediocre quarterbacks, imagine what he'll accomplish with Sam Bradford. I absolutely love Bradford this year, and I'm going to try my hardest to have him on all of my fantasy rosters. That could prove to be difficult though because most of my league members read my Web site. FML.
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2011 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Undervalued:
12. Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins. ADP: 4.04.
I've been able to get Brandon Marshall in the fifth round in some of my fantasy mock drafts, so I was surprised to see his ADP at 4.04. I still think he's great value there, however. People are down on Marshall because he scored three touchdowns last year, but he'll bounce back. Also, he's reportedly been working really hard despite getting stabbed by his wife, so this could be another Ben Roethlisberger-type situation where a player takes an off-the-field incident and puts it aside to take his game to another level.
11. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders. ADP: 10.04.
Jacoby Ford is a really talented receiver ready to take the next step in his second season. Oakland's defense won't be as good this year, so Jason Campbell will have to throw more often. That's good news for fantasy owners who are lucky enough to land Ford.
10. Mark Clayton and Danario Alexander, WRs, Rams. ADP: 11.10 and 12.06.
I might as well group these guys together. I've talked about Mark Clayton and Danario Alexander a few times this summer. Whoever becomes Sam Bradford's favorite target has the potential to post Brandon Lloyd-type numbers. As I'm watching every preseason game this August, I'm going to keep track of whom Bradford is targeting on every play, and I'll have that information available to you in my preseason fantasy stock rankings.
9. Matt Forte, RB, Bears. ADP: 2.10.
I feel like Matt Forte has a pretty low bust rate. He's never had any serious injuries; he hasn't even missed a game in his professional career. He's a big factor in the passing attack, so he'll be on the field. And his offensive line has improved this offseason. Forte is a pretty good bargain at 2.10.
8. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams. ADP: 2.06.
I guess people are down on Steven Jackson because they believe he's about to decline. I don't see it that way. I think he'll have tons of touchdown opportunities in what should be an explosive Rams offense this season. He's a steal at 2.06.
7. Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos. ADP: 12.07.
This ADP baffles me. The only risk with Tim Tebow is injury. He's going to start for the Broncos, and as long as he's healthy, he's going to post running back numbers in addition to his passing stats. Tebow legitimately could score 10 rushing touchdowns this year.
6. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers. ADP: 3.02.
LeGarrette Blount has a great chance of finishing as a top-eight fantasy running back this season, so you're getting a major steal if you can land him at 3.02. I'd be happy getting him in the early stages of the second round.
6. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons. ADP: 2.02.
Anyone who watched the Falcons at the end of last season knows that Michael Turner was running on fumes. Turner led the league in carries for the second time in three years, so he's due for a major decline in 2011. I don't even have Turner in the top 20 of my 2011 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings, so I think his ADP of 2.02 is preposterous.
5. Steve Smith, WR, Giants. ADP: 7.08.
Steve Smith is coming off a nasty knee injury, and he's expected to start the season on the PUP list. Smith may not play until late October or November, and there's no guarantee he'll be even close to 100 percent until the 2012 campaign. He should be nothing but a late-round flier.
4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots. ADP: 6.03.
Why is BenJarvus Green-Ellis even being drafted in the first 10 rounds? Law Firm scored a bunch of touchdowns last year, but Bill Belichick was clearly unimpressed, opting to select two running backs in the first three rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft. It's unclear what Belichick's running back rotation is going to be, but he clearly doesn't want Green-Ellis touching the ball all that much.
3. Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins. ADP: 7.01.
Ryan Torain is a waste of a pick. First of all, he might not even be the starter this year; Roy Helu is generating a ton of buzz, and could take over as the lead back during the season. Second, even if Torain does start, he won't give you much. Washington's offensive line stinks, while quarterback John Beck won't give any of his running backs many goal-line opportunities.
2. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos. ADP: 4.05.
Knowshon Moreno's ADP of 4.05 is a byproduct of misinformed fantasy drafters. Josh McDaniels loved Moreno, but he's gone. Denver's new front office doesn't think of Moreno as anything more than a third-down back. They happen to be the favorites to land DeAngelo Williams.
In the unlikely scenario that Moreno somehow secures the starting running back gig, there are still two issues. First, he won't score many touchdowns because Tim Tebow will command most of the goal-line work. And second, he'll still be injury-prone and unreliable.
1. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens. ADP: 5.07.
I really don't understand Anquan Boldin's ADP. Hell, I wouldn't even draft him in the 16th round. Boldin is done. He averaged 30 yards per game in the final nine weeks of the season last year. He has lost all of his speed, and he can't separate any longer. Baltimore's two rookie receivers (Torrey Smith, Tandon Doss) should eat into Boldin's snaps as the season goes along.
There will be many more 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
2011 Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis (July 15):
Knowing the average draft position (ADP) of players is important. Say you really like a player as a mid-round sleeper. You're thinking about picking him in the sixth round, but then you see that he has a ninth-round ADP. In that scenario, you can afford to select a different player in Round 6, and then get the guy you want in Rounds 7 or 8.
12. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans. ADP: 6.07.
Kenny Britt has been arrested a billion times this offseason, so he could be suspended for several games. When he comes back, he still may have trouble producing depending on whom the Titans sign at quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck would be a decent signing for Britt, while a finished Donovan McNabb could be disastrous. It's still way too early to tell, so I think a sixth-round selection is too early for Britt.
11. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns. ADP: 2.11.
I've discussed Peyton Hillis ad nauseum this offseason. He wore down the stretch, prompting general manager Tom Heckert to say that Hillis was overworked in 2010. Hillis will share carries with Montario Hardesty and perhaps a free agent, so drafting him in the second round of standard leagues is a mistake.
10. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers. ADP: 5.02.
Jermichael Finley is unbelievably talented, but he's coming off a knee injury. He could be completely healthy, but I definitely don't want to spend an early fifth-round selection on a recovering tight end. I'd rather use a Round 7 pick on Jimmy Graham.
9. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers. ADP: 5.07.
Ryan Grant may not be the starting running back for the Packers this year, so his ADP is way too high. Grant is coming off an injury and will face competition from a more talented James Starks. Even if Grant starts right away, he could lose touches to Starks as the season progresses.
8. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. ADP: 2.11.
DeSean Jackson suffered a concussion against the Texans during the 2010 season. After that, he ran nothing but go routes. Teams figured this out, and they shut him down. Jackson is really brittle, and it's very unlikely that he'll play all 16 games this year. I'd rather use my late second-round pick on someone more reliable.
7. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins. ADP: 6.04.
Many assume Daniel Thomas will get the carries in Miami, but I wouldn't be so sure. The Dolphins plan on signing a free agent running back, so there could be a timeshare.