2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis
There will be many more 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis (July 1):
Forum members EllijayFalconsFan and Egg Shen posted some great analysis regarding the multiple 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts they've conducted recently. You can read all about it by clicking the link.
What I'm going to do is post my thoughts regarding each piece of their analysis.
Players that are showing good value.
Frank Gore - People have seen this movie. Gore went in the second round of every mock I was in except for two. One of those he went 12th overall and another he fell to the third round. What you get with Gore is obvious, but with the running class being not existent after Round 4 or so. Point is Gore is tremendous value in the mid-2nd round.
--> Gore's current ADP in 12-team drafts is 2.04. I'd say that's the right range for him because he's so injury-prone. If, however, he drops to the final stages of Round 2, don't hesitate to pick him up. There's just too much upside there.
Michael Turner - Turner is in a similar spot as Frank Gore. People are down on him, I'm guessing because of the amount of carries Turner has. Turner is a TD machine who will benefit from teams having defend both Julio Jones and Roddy White. Turner went in the second round of every mock I was in.
--> Turner's ADP is 2.02, which is way too high for my liking. Forget the fact that running backs who have topped the NFL in carries usually struggled the following year. Turner is in decline, and Atlanta is going to be much more pass-happy in 2011. Julio Jones will take some of Turner's touchdowns away.
Hakeem Nicks - He is falling to the end of the second round in most of the mocks I was in. He is a legit WR1 whom you can get in between picking up your two starting RBs.
--> I love Hakeem Nicks, as you can see in my 2011 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings. Nicks' current ADP is 2.05, which is the right area for him. If he falls beyond that, don't hesitate to draft him.
Larry Fitzgerald - This is probably because of the Cardinals quarterback situation, but Larry Fitzgerald is falling to the third round. He is AWESOME value there. Thought this could change if the Cards land Kolb.
--> Or Kyle Orton. Larry Fitzgerald's ADP is 2.12, which is insanely low. He's a major steal in Round 3. No matter what happens in free agency, his quarterback situation will automatically be better than it was in 2010. Nothing gets worse than a drunken Derek Anderson, microscopic Max Hall and ridiculously raw John Skelton.
Brandon Marshall - He is going to be there in the late fourth or early fifth. If he is jump all over him.
--> Brandon Marshall's ADP is 4.05. His crazy wife stabbed him this offseason, but if he's OK, he's great value in the middle of the fourth round. People might be down on Marshall because of his four touchdowns in 2010, but that number will improve if the Dolphins sign a veteran like Kyle Orton.
Ryan Mathews - He is falling to the end of the fourth round in some drafts. He is a good option if you go RB, WR, WR, RB.
--> Ryan Mathews is my No. 22 player on my 2011 Fantasy Football Top 150 Cheat Sheet. Considering that his current ADP is 3.11, he's definitely provides great value in the fourth round.
Injuries ruined Mathews' rookie campaign, but he'll have a solid 2011 if he can stay healthy.
DeAngelo Williams - He is falling behind guys like Knowshon Moreno. His average drafted spot in my mocks was 49. Though this is a moot point until we know where he goes in free agency.
--> DeAngelo Williams provides solid value wherever he goes, considering his current ADP is 5.01. I grabbed him at the end of the fourth round in the FOX Sports Fantasy Football Mock Draft.
Players that are showing terrible value.
Jamaal Charles - The dude is going fourth overall. I don't see how people are taking him over Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.
--> I've talked about Jamaal Charles ad nauseum this offseason. Charles cannot be drafted as high as No. 4 because he's a one-dimensional fantasy running back. He catches passes, but that's it. He won't give you 250 carries, and he won't score many touchdowns because of Thomas Jones. One-dimensional fantasy backs cannot be selected anywhere near the top five in non-PPR leagues.
Peyton Hillis - He would be solid in the fourth round but the dude is going before Frank Gore and Michael Turner. Peyton Hillis is a monster but you're not getting any value in the second round. I'm not talking late second either. The guy goes in the 13-18 range.
--> Peyton Hillis is another guy I've talked about a lot. He's my No. 25 overall fantasy player, so I'd feel comfortable with him in the third round.
Knowshon Moreno - He is going in the third round with guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrette Blount, and Johnathan Stewart. Guys like Ryan Mathews, DeAngelo Williams and Jahvid Best are better players going in the fourth.
--> The Broncos are rumored to be going after DeAngelo Williams, which would make Knowshon Moreno-Williams draft placement a bit ironic.
Matt Ryan - People are jumping on him way too early. By too early I'm saying fifth round. Wait and take Josh Freeman, Big Ben, or Eli Manning.
--> Matt Ryan's ADP is 6.08, so anyone taking him in the fifth round is nuts. Matt Ryan is my No. 66 fantasy player, so 6.06 would be my ideal spot.
Jimmy Graham - Everybody's favorite sleeper is just that. So people are reaching for him in Round 6. I'm not a fan of taking TEs that early, especially when he is a "breakout" player.
--> Jimmy Graham is my No. 64 player. His current ADP is 7.10, so I'll have to disagree with EllijayFalconsFan about Graham. I don't think he's a reach in Round 6.
Guys who are all over the damn place.
Darren McFadden - The guy is going as high a mid first round to mid third round. That kind of range that high is crazy. People just don't know how they feel about him.
--> Darren McFadden's current ADP is 2.01. I'm not sure why he would fall to the third round of any fantasy draft. Perhaps the people drafting in those mocks are crack addicts.
Michael Vick - It's hard to say why (yeah right), but I've seen QB Dog Killer go top five and as late Round 3 if you're in a room where people really hate him.
--> Man-Eaters recently asked me if I'd ever select QB Dog Killer in any fantasy league. I initially said no, but then corrected myself. If he fell to Round 5 or 6, I'd take him and trade him. I'd never start him because I'd never want to be in a position to root for him.
1. You HAVE to take two RBs within the first four rounds. If you don't you are screwed. If you're picking from 1-5 take a running back first. The depth in this fantasy season is shockingly slim. Make sure you get two solid starters by Round 5 or your going to have Daniel Thomas, Mark Ingram or Ryan Torain in your lineup.
--> Couldn't agree more. Check out my countless rants in my recent 2011 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft.
2. The receiver corps is pretty deep. You can get a solid WR2 in Round 5.
--> The receivers were thin last year, but EllijayFalconsFan is right; unless you're in a league where you have to start three receivers, you can wait until Round 5 or even Round 6 to get your WR2.
People are overlooking Sam Bradford. You can wait until late to draft him and have a potential top five fantasy quarterback.
--> These are now Egg Shen's comments. Top five might be pushing it. Potential top eight is more like it. But I agree with the premise; Sam Bradford's ADP of 10.11 is WAY too low.
Marcedes Lewis is going even later than Sam Bradford in every mock, so you can wait on your starting tight end unless Antonio Gates falls to you.
--> This really surprises me. I thought people would be all over Marcedes Lewis in the wake of his 10-touchdown 2010 campaign, but fantasy players have gotten smarter apparently. Lewis is due for a decline because the Jaguars are going to be terrible this year. Even if they're fine, Lewis' touchdown percentage is bound to regress to the norm.
People are drafting Pittsburgh's defense way too early, and in my opinion, if you don't get Pitt or Green Bay, you might as well make defense one of your last picks and play matchups the entire season.
--> That's certainly what I plan on doing.
You need to reach for Steve Johnson if you want him.
--> Really? Steve Johnson is my No. 37 player, yet his ADP is 5.05. I figured I had him ranked higher than most.
If Steve Smith leaves the Giants, Mario Manningham can be a major steal this year.
--> Absolutely. Mario Manningham's ADP is 8.09, which is laughably low. Steve Smith doesn't even have to leave; he probably won't be ready for the season opener. Smith admitted that he's scared that he has lost his explosion, which is not a good sign.
Arian Foster has been the universal first pick.
--> As he should be. Unlike Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, Arian Foster won't be burdened with a raw rookie quarterback.
Roddy White is going late first/early second round, which is way too high because Julio Jones will snake some of his touchdowns this year.
--> Julio Jones will take some scores away, but I still think Roddy White makes sense at 1.12 (his ADP). Remember, this is a lockout year, so Jones won't have as big of an impact as he would under normal circumstances.
I think people are undervaluing Cedric Benson. The Bengals are going back to a run-heavy offense and Benson is the only one, as of right now, that can carry the load for the Bengals.
--> Bleh. Cedric Benson's ADP is 5.05 and I ranked him at No. 73, so I'll have to disagree. Benson won't give you any receptions and he won't score many touchdowns in Cincinnati's limited offense. Plus, he's just not that good to begin with. If he couldn't top 3.5 YPC with Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco last season, what's he going to do with a raw Andy Dalton under center?
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More 2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football: Home
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/26 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 8/27 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Real League Draft - 8/31 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Fake Mock - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Experts Draft - 8/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum 2-QB Mock - 7/21 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Scenarios - 7/17 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Auction: Mock PPR Auction - 7/14 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum PPR Mock - 7/7 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum Mock - 7/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Four-Man PPR Draft - 6/19 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Fox Sports - 5/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
2011 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Week 2 Add/Drop - 9/13 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Training Camp Stock - 9/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 9/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Preseason Recap and Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Targets - 9/3 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Late-Round Sleepers - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Round-by-Round Strategy - 9/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Value Comparison - 9/1
2011 Fantasy Football: Must-Have Players - 8/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Busts, Players to Avoid - 7/25 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/24 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers - 7/23 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Various League Strategy - 7/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Three-Dimensional Running Backs - 7/16 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: ADP Analysis - 7/15 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History - 7/10 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/9 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/4 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis - 7/1 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/18 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/12 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/5 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Up (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Down (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 4/8 (Walt)
2011 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 4/8 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/8 (Walt)
Fantasy Football Rankings - March 7
2014 NFL Mock Draft - March 5
2014 NBA Mock Draft - March 5
Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - March 3
2015 NFL Mock Draft - March 2
NFL Picks - Feb. 2
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