E-mailer Samuel Gold decided to compare my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings with ESPN's and the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find which players are overvalued or undervalued. He sent the following e-mail over, which I thought was very interesting:
2011 Fantasy Football Values - Quarterbacks:
QB Eagles No. 7 is way overvalued. Averaging around Pick 6 is absolutely absurd comparing to your rank of 25.
Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Tony Romo all get picked close to their averages.
Ben Roethlisberger (my usual target for fantasy QB) is valued at 47 by you, but on average goes around pick 68. Great value here!
2011 Fantasy Football Values - Running Backs:
Darren McFadden is good value averaging around Pick 14; your pick 9.
Felix Jones averages around pick 34, with your pick being pick 14, which provides major value here. ESPN has him as pick 47 overall. Which is useful to know because I know the people I draft with use ESPN almost religiously. Money!
Matt Forte and Frank Gore all also good value picks averaging at (19 for Gore and 23 for Forte).
Michael Turner is overvalued massively (ADP: 16) with your pick at 34. It is probably best to avoid him if you want value with your guide.
Tim Hightower (ADP: 67, Walt: 39) and Chris Wells (ADP: 62, Walt: 42) are your money picks for RB2 in the later rounds. A note about Tim Hightower: A bunch of articles via Yardbarker, Yahoo and ESPN have been published and they are all pushing hardcore for people to draft him in their leagues. His ADP will shift closer to yours significantly before opening day.
James Starks (ADP: 101, Walt: 63) good value in the 90s.
2011 Fantasy Football Values - Wide Receivers:
I absolutely love Calvin Johnson this year, but unfortunately you get absolutely zero value from him in terms of ADP.
Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks and Greg Jennings are all similar to Calvin. No value here.
Roddy White is way overvalued. ESPN has him as the No. 2 receiver in the draft, so that could very well explain that.
Vincent Jackson (ADP: 17, Walt: 27, ESPN: 26) is way overvalued. People want his 2009 performance and they are hyping him up.
Brandon Lloyd (ADP: 50, Walt: 35, ESPN: 45) is a great value pick!
Dwayne Bowe/Desean Jackson are all overvalued. Which is expected.
2011 Fantasy Football Values - Tight Ends:
Jermichael Finley is way overvalued.
Jimmy Graham is way undervalued. But that could change; similar story like Hightower. He is the tight end sleeper to grab this year.
@Cajunn you're WAY over thinking is your problem. If your idea is to just take terrible teams each week, you might as well just give your bookie your wallet. There's a time and a place to take stinky teams, but you're better off avoiding them all together. No matter what your numbers would have told you, the Jets are one of the few NFL teams who have completely packed it in. They quit once that Patriot game ended. Make good money the rest of the year by fading them.