This order is based off of my end of the season power rankings. I know this is a long shot be what happens next spring, but I will do my best since I cannot predict breakout stars and small school studs. Here is a link to my power rankings if you like explanations why your team is selecting where. http://walterfootball.com/PowerRankings/Published/490
There will be many more 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
I'm on board with just about all of your pass-catching sleepers, but I think Pettigrew might actually be primed for a disappointing season. For most of the 2010, Detroit ran a pretty simplistic offense, catering to their non-Stafford quarterbacks. Stafford won't be as content to just dump it off to Pettigrew in the soft part of the zone. You also have to assume that Titus Young and a healthier Jahvid Best will detract from his touches as well.
--> I think you're onto something with Brandon Pettigrew's targets dropping. Matthew Stafford has a much stronger arm than Shaun Hill, and he'll undoubtedly take more shots downfield. At the same time, however, since Detroit's offense figures to be more productive, Pettigrew will be in position to catch more touchdowns.
I know you have Arian Foster at the top of you RB ranking. He will not produce as much as last year. Remember Ben Tate is back. You will say "there is no way Ben Tate takes over Foste" I am not saying that, but remember Tate intrigues Gary Kubiak, he really does. I believe Foster is way better than Tate, but Kubiak will be really interested in Tate to emerge as a nice RB in order to save his draft prestige. I know for a facta that Texans are really concerned about the injury Foster recently pointed out, so they are not going to give him the same nunmber of carries as last season. A la Jones Drew-Rashaad Jennings. Carries will be little bit more splitted.
--> I can't agree with that. Maybe if Ben Tate were a top-15 selection, the Texans would be more concerned about saving face. But Tate was a second-round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. They're not going to take carries away from the NFL's leading rusher to make themselves look better. Also, you mentioned Foster's injury. Well, Tate's coming off an injury too. It's not like Tate is either proven or completely healthy.
I took Mardy Gilyard in the last round of my draft because I am pretty confident that he will be the St Louis receiver to have a breakout season. I think Gilyard will post insane numbers for a player the will not even be drafted in most of the drafts. Gilyard has the ball skills, size and that knack for getting the ball that McDaniels loves for having as No. 1 WR. Just look the way he ignored Demaryius Thomas cause he is just not comfortable with his WR characteristics.
--> Mardy Gilyard is talented, but that's not the issue. There are work ethic concerns, as he sat out player-organized activities this offseason. I wouldn't trust Gilyard - not until we see what happens this preseason. Sam Bradford will have a favorite weapon, whether that's Mark Clayton, Danario Alexander or Donnie Avery. I'll be shocked if it's Gilyard.
May just be the homer in me, but what about Mike Hart? You say that Delone Carter could become "the guy" due to injuries to Addai and the Brown falling out, but Hart has had more time in the system and showed he was at least passable at running the ball. Yes, I do know about his injury issues and that he may or may not be resigned but Carter hasn't worked out or payed his dues at all yet.
--> Interesting point. I completely forgot about Mike Hart. I'll be pulling for him. Even though I'm a Penn State fan and alumnus, I've always had tons of respect for Hart, and I think he's an underrated player. Let's see how much he's utilized this preseason.
I agree with Austin Collie, Mario Manningham, Brandon Pettigrew, Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, Jimmy Graham,Ryan Matthews,Dez Bryant,and Jacoby Ford.... Others i like that aren't on your list... Deion Branch, Arrelious Benn, Jordan Shipley(PPR)
--> Deion Branch should have been on the list. I like him too. Arrelious Benn is coming off ACL surgery, so he may not be 100 percent in 2011. As for Jordan Shipley, I wouldn't feel too comfortable taking him because the Bengals have a rookie quarterback at the helm. If they sign a veteran signal-caller to play until Andy Dalton is ready, I'll definitely move Shipley up my rankings.
I'm having a hard time getting on board with many of your teams that you've drafted in your mocks. I will still use your ranking system and follow your stock reports religously but some of the teams you have put together this offseason are head scratching. You can't really expect to compete with Campbell as your QB2 and Collie and Meachem as your wide receivers. Both Collie and Meachem are on your sleepers list, meaning they are worth taking a shot at, maybe Collie as a WR2 but to expect him to be the stud of your WRs is not very strong. Again still love reading your mocks and updates just skeptical of some of the teams you've been putting together in your mocks this offseason.
--> First of all, this was the first time I've ever done a 2-QB mock draft, so I didn't like my team when I finished. I would have selected Matt Ryan instead of LeGarrette Blount if I had to redo the whole thing.
Second, while I'm lacking at QB2 and WR2 (I like Austin Collie a lot), I'm very strong at running back (Chris Johnson, LeGarrette Blount), flex (Jahvid Best) and tight end (Antonio Gates). I'd say my team is in the middle of the road. Like I said, I wasn't too pleased with my results which were a byproduct of my unfamiliarity with the 2-QB system, but with some nice waiver-wire additions, my team could compete for a championship.
Your plan to draft Mark Clayton and Danario Alexander seems like a good idea, but what if one of the rookies the rams just drafted becomes Sam bradfords favorite target?
--> That's where the preseason comes in. As always, I'm going to watch every single preseason game, and post notes and stock reports on this site. I'll definitely be counting Sam Bradford's targets, so hopefully we'll learn whom his favorite wideout is.
From Barney Fife's Bullet:
I have been in a 2QB league for a few years. My best advice would be to take 2 QBs within your first 4 picks. Landing Brees and Brady in this mock was huge. While everyone else is scrambling for QBs, you are still able to get good value on RB and WR. As of now, I like how late you can get Stewart and D. Williams at RB.
--> After doing a 2-QB fantasy mock for the first time, I happen to agree with you. I'd definitely pick Matt Ryan over LeGarrette Blount if I had the chance.
What's with the "Hasselbeck's transition to Tennessee" talk? Did somebody sign a CBA and open free agency without us knowing?
--> It's being widely reported that Matt Hasselbeck will sign with the Titans. Teams and players have definitely been communicating during the lockout despite rules that forbid otherwise. For example, I learned from an NFC team that most of the UDFAs have already agreed to sign with specific teams.
Would you please stop referring to Michael Vick as Dog Killer? Are you five years old? The last time I checked he had already served his punishment for his crimes, so in my opinion your ongoing provocative attitude towards him, must be seen as a discredit for the legal system that gave him his punishment?
--> No! And I am rubber you are glue whatever you say bounces off to me and sticks to you!
Who cares about kickers? Well, I do... I mean, I wouldn't take one before R15 in a 16-round draft, but a good K (on a team that can't score TDs) can net you 10-15 points a week.
--> I know. Kickers can definitely influence the outcomes of fantasy football battles. But the point is that you don't have to draft a kicker before the 16th round. You can just pick up a good one in free agency if the kicker you draft stinks. I don't think I've ever finished a fantasy season with the same kicker I drafted.
Peyton Hillis is on the Madden Cover. That is called the Madden Curse, not an inexplicable regression.
--> You're right. That's definitely explicable. Yet another reason to be down on Peyton Hillis.
I'm surprised you don't have QB Dog Killer on here. The combination of his age, playing style, and delusional owners picking him in round one just screams BUST.
--> You're right. I didn't include QB Dog Killer on my potential first-round bust list because I couldn't imagine ever drafting him in the first round. But you're right - he definitely is a major candidate to bust in the first round.
Steven Jackson and Darren McFadden are the only players I'd consider drafting on this list anyway. I'd say McFadden has a less chance of missing games than Steven Jackson though.
--> Why do you say that? Steven Jackson has missed only one game in the past two seasons, and only 12 games in his 7-year career. Darren McFadden, meanwhile, has missed nearly as many games (10) in just three seasons. McFadden is definitely the greater injury risk.
From Harold Ballsagna:
Walt, one guy I would consider adding to this list is Rashard Mendenhall. When you factor in his 300+ carries from the regular season, the additional 50+ from the playoffs, not to mention the wear and tear he withstood at the goalline, many people are concerned his huge workload will carry over. I personally believe he is young enough and fresh enough to rebound from this, but I thought it was worth mentioning. Thanks for all the good work, bud!
--> Thanks, Harry Ballsagna! That's a fair point about Rashard Mendenhall. He had just 324 carries during the regular season, but received about 60 more carries during Pittsburgh's run to the Super Bowl. Look at his carry totals in Weeks 13-17: 19, 18, 17, 18, 14. Mike Tomlin clearly realized that he was overworking Mendenhall, so he gave him more breathers during the stretch run. This could help Mendenhall stay healthy in 2011, but it could hurt his fantasy production if he's not a major workhorse again.
As a Texans fan, it really pains me to say this, but I think Arian Foster is getting a little overrated. Just like the 2008 Giants, the 2011 Texans have a great run-blocking line and three talented running backs. Ben Tate will see some carries and Slaton will have receptions out of the backfield. I predict a slide in production out of Arian Foster.
--> It definitely would make sense to sell high on Arian Foster from an economical standpoint, but perhaps the belief that he could be a one-year wonder means that he could be slightly undervalued. Foster is the real deal. He led the NFL in broken tackles last year, so it wasn't just the offensive line doing all of the work.
Walt - I was doing a FF Mock on espn.com and I noticed Jimmy Graham was ranked 123 and Brandon Pettigrew was 132...is it just me or is that incredibly, insanely low for 2 of the sleeper tight ends this year?
--> That definitely is insane. If you can't land Antonio Gates at a reasonable place, there's no reason to reach for any tight end because you might be able to land eithe rof these guys.
Who do you think will have a better chance to have a Mike Williams (TB) type season this year, Jacoby ford, or Greg Little? I'm really high on Ford, and think the lockout is going to hurt Little a lot.
--> Greg Little would be this year's Mike Williams if there was no lockout. You're right - maybe Little produces at the end of the year, but the lockout really hurt him. I really like Jacoby Ford.
From Lee Ving:
Miss White?!! Sure, Madeline Kahn was cute in a chipmunk-like way, but let's be real...it's ALL about Yvette the French maid and her heaving bosoms.
--> I haven't seen the movie in a long time, and I'm ashamed to admit that I forgot about Yvette, the hot French maid. My cousin runs a cleaning service, so I get maids to come to my house once a month at a discount. I think I'm going to demand that they wear those French maid outfits from now on. Seems like a reasonable request, no?