By Dan Zaksheske – Dan Z.
Updated Dec. 3, 2021.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
First off, let me just give a big thank you to WalterFootball.com for giving me a platform to share my thoughts and experience. I’ve been a big fan of this site for a long time, and to be able to actually contribute content is an incredible honor.
Quick background on me: I spent nearly a decade working at ESPN producing audio content, mainly focused on college and NFL football. After leaving ESPN, I joined a sports research company called STAT Factor, where I am the Director of NFL Content and the creator of the “STAT Stack,” where you can find more of my work.
The stats on No. 1-overall pick Trevor Lawrence are bad: he’s arguably been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this season. But are his struggles entirely on him or is the team around him to blame? What about the coaching? Let’s dive into the tape of Sunday’s loss against Atlanta to find out …
First Drive: Starting on own 14, 10:03 left in 1st quarter, tied 0-0
Jacksonville starts with a wide receiver screen to Laviska Shenault, and then a play-action bootleg where Lawrence hits Shenault on a short crosser for a quick first down. Two quick, easy completions to get Lawrence going. Two James Robinson runs set up a 3rd-and-four, and Lawrence connects with Marvin Jones on an out route just past the sticks for a second opening-drive first down. Following a false start and a Robinson run, the Jaguars are behind the chains at 2nd-and-10. Lawrence takes a deep shot, but he and the wide receiver aren’t on the same page and the throw sails out of bounds. On 3rd-and-10, Atlanta brings the blitz, and Lawrence does a nice job stepping up into a collapsing pocket, but another miscommunication with a wide recvier leads to another incomplete pass. The Jaguars punt.
Second Drive: Starting on own 29, 38 seconds left in the first quarter, Atlanta leads 7-0
The Jaguars come out with a seven-play drive that includes five runs by James Robinson that gain 28 yards. Lawrence is asked to throw on a 1st-and-10 and connects with tight end Dan Arnold on another quick out-route. He’s then asked to throw again on a second-and-seven from the Atlanta 35 … and he’s intercepted. It appears like he believes he drew an offsides on Atlanta because he chucks it into double-coverage around the goal line, which leads to an easy pick. The Falcons defensive end did jump, slightly, but not across the line and there was a flag thrown, but it was for an illegal formation on Jacksonville. The interception stands.
Third Drive: Starting on own 20, 8:27 left in the second quarter, Atlanta leads 7-0
Lawrence hits his checkdown on first down after again nicely stepping up into the pocket and surveying the field, which picks up a medium gain. Robinson, however, fumbles on the next play, giving the Falcons the ball.
Fourth Drive: Starting on own 27, 6:40 left in the second quarter, Atlanta leads 14-0
Now down two scores, the Jaguars start with an RPO, and Lawrence keeps and runs for eight yards. Another rollout completion picks up a first down. Following an incomplete pass on first down, Lawrence takes a sack and fumbles on second down. Fortunately for him, it bounces right to a teammate. Lawrence felt the pressure but hung on to the ball too long trying to make a play; he needs to get rid of that ball, or just take the sack without fumbling. Now 3rd-and-22, Lawrence hits Shenault on a short cross and Shenault uses his athleticism to pick up yards after the catch (YAC) on his way to a first down on third-and-forever, and the Jaguars are now in Atlanta territory.
Three consecutive runs and a screen that loses a yard set up a 2nd-and-11 from the Atlanta 30. Lawrence then hits Marvin Jones, who makes an incredible one-handed catch for 21 yards. It’s a good throw by Lawrence into tight coverage, but a better catch by Jones. Now its 1st-and-goal from just inside the 10, and the Jaguars try another quick pass to Shenault that goes nowhere. On the next play, Lawrence faces a free-rusher off the edge, and he quickly gets rid of it to an open out route by the slot receiver, but the receiver was late getting off the ball and then late getting his head around, which leads to an incompletion; it was a good, smart throw and a possible touchdown if caught. Now third-and-goal from around the 10, Lawrence steps up and hits Laquon Treadwell short of the goal line as the Falcons defense is guarding the paint. Despite a 4th-and-goal from three-yard-line down 14 points, the Jaguars elect to kick. 14-3, Atlanta.
Fifth Drive: Starting at midfield, 19 seconds left in the half, Atlanta leads 14-3
A quick Matt Ryan interception gives the Jaguars a chance to score points with 19 seconds left in the first half. Jones makes another nice grab on an off-target throw by Lawrence to pick up nine yards on first down, but Lawrence goes incomplete on three straight passes, including a fourth-down Hail Mary as time expires. The Falcons get pressure on all three plays.
Sixth Drive: Starting on own 21, 15:00 left in the third quarter, Atlanta leads 14-3
The Jaguars get the ball to start the second half and punt after five plays. They pick up a first down on another quick Lawrence pass across the middle, but ultimately fail on a third-and-three when Marvin Jones drops a potential first-down pass.
Seventh Drive: Starting on own 25, 7:47 left in the third quarter, Atlanta leads 21-3
Another Falcons touchdown puts the Jaguars in a big hole. Unfortunately, they go three-and-out. Lawrence is unable to hit Jones on a deep cross thanks to a good play by the defender. On third down, Lawrence is forced to check it down and the receiver comes up short. Punt.
Eighth Drive: Starting on own 28, 4:06 left in the third quarter, Atlanta leads 21-3
Jacksonville starts with play-action, and Lawrence has all day before a receiver finally comes open; Lawrence hits Treadwell near the sideline for 14 yards. The running game gets going, pushing the Jaguars into Falcons territory and then Lawrence hits James O’Shaughnessy for 21 yards inside the Atlanta 10. It is a great throw by Lawrence; he fires it into a tight window just past the reach of the underneath defender and just hard enough to keep the deep defender from closing. Then he hits Tavon Austin in the back of the endzone for the Jaguars first touchdown of the game. It was a clean pocket, and Lawrence had the time to make a nice throw to Austin, again high enough to beat the underneath coverage and hard enough to keep the deep defender from getting there. Lawrence throws a quick out to O’Shaughnessy on the two-point conversion to convert, making it 21-11 Atlanta. Three consecutive strong throws by the rookie, who finally had some time to operate.
Ninth Drive: Starting on own 10, 12:57 left in the fourth quarter, Atlanta leads 21-11
A couple short throws with nice YAC quickly move the Jaguars to midfield. Lawrence then scrambles for the first time in the game, setting up a short third down that Carlos Hyde picks up. Another play-action rollout, and Lawrence hits an open Treadwell near the sticks, and Treadwell does the rest to bring Jacksonville just inside the red zone. Three straight runs, one by Lawrence, set up a 1st-and-goal from the six. Unfortunately, the Jaguars take a holding penalty on a first-down run, pushing them back to the 16, and essentially ending the hopes for a touchdown. Three straight incompletions – thanks to more Atlanta pressure and Jacksonville receivers failing to get open – and the Jaguars kick the field goal to make it a one-score game, 21-14.
Tenth Drive: Starting on own 18, 2:13 left in the game, Atlanta leads 21-14
Lawrence gets the ball with just over two minutes left, needing a touchdown to tie. The Jaguars get into a quick 3rd-and-7, and Lawrence hits Jones right at the sticks to pick it up. Unfortunately, that’s the highlight of the drive because Lawrence throws four consecutive incompletions and the ball goes over on downs. The first throw was a slight miscommunication with the tight end; second down was a catchable checkdown dropped by Carlos Hyde; third down was a high throw by Lawrence that was also behind Treadwell; and fourth down was nowhere near the target, who again appears to be in a different spot than Lawrence was anticipating. Atlanta runs out the clock and the game is over.
Final thoughts: A mixed-bag from the No. 1-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He shows excellent poise in the pocket for a young quarterback, navigating it well and moving around while keeping his eyes down the field. Despite his athleticism, he only scrambled once despite the intense pressure, as he looks to make plays with his arm first and his legs a distant second. It’s hard to evaluate him because the Jacksonville roster is so bereft of talent; the offensive line allowed defenders in the backfield all game long and the Jaguars receivers don’t consistently get open.
When Lawrence had time, he made some really excellent throws that show why he’s the future of the franchise. But he’s a rookie and he definitely missed some opportunities with throws that were off target. There were also several miscommunications with receivers, but it’s hard to know where the blame lies there, though there should be less of that in Week 12. The coaches definitely tried to help Lawrence with a lot of quick passes and play-action that got him on the move, though I wasn’t overly impressed with his throws on the run, which were continually talked up by the broadcast as a major strength of his. The ball got where it needed to go, but in many cases weren’t in a position to allow the receiver to make his YAC. Lawrence is a young quarterback playing on a bad team, and there were some flashes of brilliance in there, but he lacks the polish and consistency of fellow first-rounder Mac Jones. The arm talent is undeniable, and Lawrence’s ceiling is certainly higher than that of someone like Jones, but it will be hard to thrive in this environment in 2021.
Dan Z. is a writer for STAT Factor, a dedicated sports research company that provides many high-profile broadcasters with detailed information on some of the biggest events in sports. To read more of Dan’s work, please subscribe to STAT Stack here.
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