The 2025 NFL MVP race has become one of the most intriguing two-man competitions in recent history. With only four weeks left in the regular season, you are now treating yourself to a wild showdown between a 37-year-old player on the cusp of claiming only his lone missing award in his career and a sophomore sensation piloting a surprising contender. Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye are nowhere near anyone else in contention, and this award could very well go either way.
Where the Race Stands After Week 14
The MVP race has been extremely loud in December, with a new leader emerging nearly every week. Stafford rebounded in a huge way in Week 14, shredding Arizona’s defense in a 45-17 rout. He threw for 281 yards and three scores, including 22 of 31 passes, likely reminding many voters of just how he’d been the prohibitive favourite for most of the season. This was especially important, as it followed a three-turnover debacle against Carolina that gave Maye an opening to move into a lead.
Maye, on the other hand, had a bye week with an 11-2 record, watching from the sidelines as the Patriots held their own as the second seed in the AFC. As of the latest odds from the best bookies assessing this crucial climax of the season, Stafford has -180 odds to take home the MVP award, while Maye has +200 odds. These are subject to change, not that it hasn’t already this season.
The Case for Matthew Stafford
Stafford’s statistical prowess needs no explanation. Then you’ve got him with 35 touchdown passes, leading all of professional football, along with only four interceptions. That’s a ratio that has been nearly unheard of, especially when you consider that you are watching a season from a quarterback that has been this clean, let alone a quarterback who has reached this point in their career.
The storytelling part of the equation can’t be dismissed either. Stafford has been in the league since 2009, building a body of work that would put him in the Hall of Fame. He has a Super Bowl ring, is a multiple Pro Bowl player, and has reached all of the statistical benchmarks. The only prize missing from his set of accomplishments would be MVP. This would be his last true chance to take it home.
The Rams’ passer has also come through in the most important of situations. He has dissected two of the best defenses in the league in Houston and Seattle, showing he has what it takes to rise to a high-level challenge. With the Rams scratching and clawing for a top spot in the NFC, Stafford has a winning story on his side.
But that loss to Carolina still burns. Turning over the ball three times, including an interception in the end zone and a pick-six, in a 31-28 stunner against a Panthers team that has no business being in consideration for a Wild Card spot, that’s a disturbing body of work. Stafford has no respite either, as he gets to square off against the Lions and Seahawks, who are in the top 10 in sacks.
The Case for Drake Maye
Nobody foresaw this. Maye is pacing the league in passer rating with 111.9, completion percentage with 71.5, and passes completed with 3,412. He has 23 touchdown passes and only six interceptions, as he has led New England to an 11-2 record with an 11-game winning streak as a starting quarterback.”
Secondly, the major challenge for him would be to maintain this form. This would involve staying consistent in order to continue performing so well. The reason this would be a challenge for him is that it would
Resurrection in New England under Mike Vrabel has been one of the greatest narratives of 2025, but Maye’s story takes center stage. Absolutely, their improved defense has been a key factor, and it certainly does help to have Vrabel as their new coach, but this squad wouldn’t be playing for 11 wins without Maye’s development into an elite-level franchise QB. His efficiency numbers are, of course, out of this world; he’s averaging 9.0 yards per attempt, which is unbelievably elite-level for any QB, let alone a 23-year-old with only two years of experience in the league.
New England has a tough slate, and critics say that Maye has not been in tough enough company to earn a look for MVP. That debate is about to be settled conclusively. Maye has the Bills this weekend and then has a date with the Ravens, which means that in back-to-back weeks, he will line up against Josh Allen and then vs. Lamar Jackson, the past two MVP winners. Pass both tests, and Maye’s argument becomes hard to refute. Fail, and Stafford’s lead will be even tougher to topple.
Other Contenders
Josh Allen has +1500 odds, but he nevertheless faces that “last year’s winner” conundrum. Last year, Allen won an MVP award, but the public in general always likes to see improvement in a candidate who has run for office before. Allen has 10 interceptions this season as opposed to only six in 2019, but then again, there are flashes of brilliance, like when he threw four touchdown passes in a game against Cincinnati.
Jordan Love (+1000) has been heating up just in time. He has thrown for seven touchdowns with only one interception in his past couple of outings. While those wins against Detroit and Chicago are encouraging, he’s a long shot here.
Dak Prescott’s loss on Thursday night in Detroit effectively put a stop to any small chance he may have still had. “There’s about a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, which means you’re not winning MVP if you’re watching it from home,” Fogle pointed out. Other players who’ve fallen from contention are Jonathan Taylor, due to a bit of a slump, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has slowed down, and Myles Garrett, whose team, despite his 20 sacks, has a 3-10 record.
The Verdict
If you’re asking who wins this award currently, I think the advantage goes to Stafford. He has more receivers, a longer record of superior performance, and that inspirational story of being a last-chance winner that people buy into. The sympathy vote becomes important when you’re matching it up with a 37-year-old Hall of Famer against a 23-year-old, who will assuredly get plenty of other opportunities.
However, it’s what Maye has to do in his next two weeks that will shape everything. Beat Allen and Jackson, putting up good stats, and he can snatch this award at the wire. The 2025 MVP competition has not even reached its peak yet. We are just getting started.
